Upsets happen every year. This is fresh in our minds with 15th seeded Florida Gulf Coast's magical Cinderella story from last year. A No. 9 seed in Wichita State even made it to the Final Four! Of course seed number doesn't tell the whole story, but its important to take a look at just how often a higher seeded team can beat their opponent. Take a look at each of the underdog seed numbers and how often they win, starting with #16.
#16 Seeds - The Ultimate Underdog
The worst of the best, a 16 seed has never upset a 1 seed, but they have come very close a few times. The tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Since then, thirteen different 16 seeds have lost by single digits. Perhaps most notably, 16-Princeton lost to 1-Georgetown in 1989 by a score of 50-49. The following year 16-Murray State took 1-Michigan State to overtime but lost by four. Last year it happened twice and both 1-seeds (Gonzaga and Kansas) ended up exiting the tournament early.
Best shot this year: Weber State (19-11) vs Arizona (30-4) (1%)
Why: None of the teams has anything close to a realistic shot but Weber State has played a few very good teams in UCLA and BYU. They lost to BYU by "just" nine points, so they have that. If they can keep it to within 15 points they should chalk it up as a moral victory.
#15 Seeds - Hey, it happened last year!
Actually 15 seeds have won three times in the last two years after winning four times total from 1985-2011. So 15 seeds have certainly gained some respect within the tournament. In all likelihood its not going to happen again, but if you're feeling bold while making your bracket...
Best shot this year: Eastern Kentucky (24-9) vs Kansas (24-9) (15%)
Why: Eastern Kentucky has faced three bracket teams this year. Okay, so they lost all of those games. To be fair they were all away games, and they only lost to VCU by three! Thats impressive enough. They knocked off Ohio Valley favorite Belmont twice this year so thats a plus as well. Not to mention Kansas has looked fairly weak without Joel Embiid, going just 2-2 since his injury.
#14 Seeds
Sorry, I ran out of ideas for a title. 14 seeds win a bit more often than the first two, although since 2000 they have won just four times, same as the 15 seeds. Just last year though, Harvard beat New Mexico. At 14 seeds we get to the point where I think we have our first legitimate shot for a team to advance.
Best shot this year: Western Michigan (23-9) vs Syracuse (27-5) (33%)
Why: Not long ago, Syracuse was a clear #1 seed dominating the season. Then it all fell apart. They have suffered six losses in their last eight games, including that first loss to dreadful Boston College (8-24). This isn't just about 'Cuse though. Western Michigan is 12-1 since the start of February. They are also 8-4 against RPI top 100 teams, including a win against fellow tournament team New Mexico State. This team is hot and Syracuse is anything but.
#13 Seeds
A 13 seed advancing at least one round is almost probable. Since 2001 it has happened every year except 2004 and 2007. Multiple 13 seeds have advanced on three separate occasions. Last year it was LaSalle which ended up winning two games. Definitely take a long look at the 13's and see if there is one you feel good about.
Best shot this year: New Mexico State (26-9) vs San Diego State (29-4) (25%)
Why: San Diego State is a very capable team with a few signature wins, most notably at Kansas. The Aztecs never really faced that many tough teams though and lost twice to New Mexico to go along with a win (not New Mexico State, who they will now face). They have this opponent in common as New Mexico State faced New Mexico twice going 1-1. That is at least proof that New Mexico State has what it takes to pull off the upset, but San Diego State has the experience and talent so don't expect them to roll over easily.
#12 Seeds
2007 was the last time a 12 seed did not advance. Since then we have had twelve 12 seed upsets for an average of two a year. You can bet its going to happen at least once and like most years there is a strong group to make the push. A lot of people believe Harvard has a great shot to advance again. I'm not buying it, but I do think a couple other teams have a decen shot.
Best shot(s) this year: Stephen F. Austin (31-2) vs VCU (26-8) (35%)
Why: VCU is all too familiar with the role of cinderella, advancing at least one round as a #11 or #12 seed in '07, '11 and '12. This year it may find itself on the other side. VCU's strength is tied to how strong you believe the A-10 Conference to be. VCU has played 9 games against the RPI top 50, but only one was out of conference. Of course that was an impressive win over 1-seed Virginia. SFA on the other hand was in a very weak conference, but dominated its opponents with no losses against conference opponents. Although it suffered one bad loss to East Tennessee State, its other loss came against Texas, a very respectable team.
NC State (21-13) vs St. Louis (26-6) (45%)
Why: Perhaps I'm being too tough on the A-10 conference but St. Louis had looked rock solid all season long until losing four of its last five, including bad losses to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. NC State on the other hand has to win a play in game vs Xavier to even face St. Louis. While NC State does have a few bad losses, it also sports wins vs Syracuse and at Pitt, as well as one point losses at Cuse and vs UNC. This team had a brutal schedule and they won't give up easily.
#11 Seeds
You would have to go back to 2004 to find a year where no 11 seed managed to advance. This year the 11s have some impressive resumes as well. Every single 11 seed has at least one signature win and all have a more than reasonable chance of winning.
Best shots this year: Iowa (20-12) vs UMass (24-8) (55%)
Why: It's weird to pick a team that is just 1-6 over its past 7 games and also another team that first has to win a play in game to even face Mass, but Iowa is a tough team. They have impressive double digit wins at Ohio State and vs Michigan. They've made the big dance. If they can just hit the reset button, and they have a great coach who can do that, they can win a few games in this tournament. UMass on the other hand looked completely unimpressive in the second half of the season with a few bad losses. It would be the perfect team for Iowa to get a streak going.
Dayton (23-10) vs Ohio State (25-9) (40%)
Why: There, some love for the A-10. Dayton's only losses since February have come against the hot St. Joe's team. Meanwhile over that same span, they've also picked up wins against higher seeded George Washington, Mass and at St. Louis. Meanwhile, besides a win at home against Michigan State, Ohio State hasn't done much lately with losses against Penn State and a weak Indiana. I'm not saying this is certain, but Dayton has a good chance here.
#10 Seeds
Here is the strange part for me, I don't feel particularly good about any of these 10 seeds. Sure you have St. Joe's who just won the A-10 but they face a very tough UConn team. I looked at BYU, but they face Oregon. Sure, Oregon split its series with Arizona, Arizona St and UCLA, but it only lost the games by 2 and won them by 4, 7 and 7 before losing badly to UCLA in the conference tournament. Stanford hasn't had an impressive win in months...except for their big win over fellow 10 seed Arizona State, which also beat Stanford by double digits in their last meeting. These 10 seeds are all over the place. If I had to pick one it would be Arizona State, but I really don't feel strongly about it. Its mostly my lack of faith in Texas.
There you have it, my breakdown of the double digit seeds. If you want to go one step further, the 8 and 9 seeds are about 50/50 so there isn't much to break down mathematically. Take this knowledge, pick 'em and have fun!
