Breaking Down The Targets: Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce has been my favorite tight end in the league for a while. It might be because he was the first one I ever drafted in dynasty. It could also be the fact that he had an awesome reality show. 

That's why it was with a heavy heart I traded him in one of my dynasty leagues this offseason for Tyler Eifert and a first rounder. Of course, the Chiefs then almost immediately released Jeremy Maclin just to spite me clearly. Let's take a gander at what that means for their offense.

2016 Chief's Passing Attempts

Would it surprise you to find out that the Kansas City Chiefs were 25th in pass attempts last season? What's that? No, because Alex Smith has a reputation as a game manager?  Hey, the 546 pass attempts were significantly up from the 473 they attempted in 2015!

The offense was 14th in rush attempts, which shouldn't really surprise anyone. Andy Reid has been known for years to love his run game. In fact, if you're looking for fantasy production targeting his running backs is always a good bet.

So where did all those pass attempts go?

Player Name	Targets	Recs	Yardage	TDS
Travis Kelce	117	85	1125	4
Tyreek Hill	83	61	593	6
Jeremy Maclin	76	44	536	2
Chris Conley	69	44	530	0
Albert Wilson	51	31	279	2
Spencer Ware	42	33	447	2
Charcandrick West	34	28	188	2
Demetrius Harris	31	17	123	1

You may already know that Travis Kelce was the TE1 last year. It was the lowest scoring TE1 year in recent history, but hey he still rose to the top. Tyreek Hill burst onto the scene with a ton of long touchdowns. Jeremy Maclin was hurt and is now gone from the team.

2017 Predictions

As much as we want Patrick Mahomes to be the starter that isn't happening. Alex Smith is still going to be the one slinging the ball this year. Hey, the positive news is the 489 passes that Smith attempted last year were a three year high!  He also had his most passing yards in three years! 

I don't know if you guys heard because it's not like it's all over the internet or anything-but Spencer Ware got hurt. Kareem Hunt is now going to be the starter for the Chiefs, and while I like him they may not want to lean on a rookie to run the ball as much as in years past.  I believe that means we see a slight uptick in the Chiefs' pass attempts this season to a grand total of 550!

Before we get to who will be the biggest beneficiary, I want to bring your attention once again to Graham Barfield. He posted this chart back on June 2nd.

Small sample, but Travis Kelce has averaged 90.6 receiving yards/game in the five contests Jeremy Maclin missed with #Chiefs in 2015-16: pic.twitter.com/3nsRdShCI1

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) June 3, 2017

As you can see in games where Jeremy Maclin didn't play, Travis Kelce saw his production go up drastically. In seems like Alex Smith realized what all fantasy owners already knew.  Travis Kelce is a beast worthy of his attention. Based on these numbers,  I don't think it's crazy to say Travis Kelce will see 127 targets.

Next up is Tyreek Hill. Considering the hype he's gotten all offseason, I don't think this choice will surprise any of you. I am worried that he's a gadget player in the vein of Percy Harvin, but you also have to remember that Harvin did have some very productive years in Minnesota. As long as the scheme fits, I think Hill can destroy opposing defenses. He will see 110 targets come his way this season.

Fun fact-last season was the first since 2013 in which Andy Reid had at least three receivers that were targeted 60 or more times. I think that trend continues this season. Additionally, Reid recently gave a vote of confidence to Chris Conley, the WR2 on his depth chart.

#Chiefs HC Andy Reid on WRs: Tyreek Hill is an excited player obviously and we feel that Chris Conley has taken a step forward.

— SiriusXM NFL Radio (@SiriusXMNFL) August 15, 2017

 In my inaugural rookie draft a few years ago, I traded two thirds to my good friend (and editor) Zach for John Brown. One of those thirds turned out to be Chris Conley who he really wanted to draft. Conley had become a bit of inside joke in that league, but after how he looked last season I'm starting to think he won't be soon. I believe he will see 90 targets this season.

I mentioned earlier how Andy Reid's running back often finishes as a top guy in fantasy. That's because of how many passes they tend to see come their way. Last season the RB group saw 93 targets. 2015 was a down year where they only saw 72, but that can be largely attributed to Jamaal Charles only playing 5 games. In 2014, it was 89. This is going to be a group that sees a bunch of targets, and the charge is going to be led by Kareem Hunt who will see 50. The running backs will combine for 85 targets.

It may not be the most exciting proposition to be Alex Smith's third wide receiver, but someone has to fill that role. I know one of my league mates is very excited about the prospect of Jehu Chesson, but I believe we are about a year too early for that. The most likely scenario is that Albert Wilson wins the role, and he sees about 65 targets.

That leaves 73 targets for the rest of the roster. That'll go to guys like De'Anthony Thomas, Jehu Chesson, Demarcus Robinson, and Demetrius Harris. As always, it leaves room for guys I mentioned to expand their role as well but considering I'm already pretty high on their targets that seems unlikely.

Here's what the projections look like with those numbers:

Player Name	Targets	Recs	Yardage	TDS
Travis Kelce	127	91	1164	6
Tyreek Hill	110	75	825	4
Chris Conley	90	57	684	3
Kareem Hunt	50	36	306	2
Albert Wilson	65	40	380	2

I feel like it's important to mention that Hill could see an additional 200 yards on the ground. In 24 rush attempts last year he gained 267 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he did anything similar to that this season I'd have him for over 1000 yards and at least 6 touchdowns.

Dynasty Slant

The days of getting Travis Kelce in the 6th round of dynasty startups are far behind us my friends. According to Dynasty League Football's August ADP he is going 31st overall. I love him still and think he is well on his way to establishing himself as THE tight end to own in dynasty (mostly due to Gronk injuries). That said, when you're passing on high upside young WRs to grab him it hurts. I'd be ok with waiting on tight end instead of paying to get him. Glad I still own him in at least one league though.

Tyreek Hill is currently the 41st played off the board. I get that he's exciting since he can make catches and rush for long touchdowns. However, I'm somewhat worried about what happens to him when Patrick Mahomes becomes the quarterback for the Chiefs. I do think they can match up nicely because of Hill's speed, but if they change the scheme to be less focused on Hill I worry about how he may struggle. There's no one he is going ahead of that makes me think "wow you have to take those guys over him", but just wanted to acknowledge he is a risky pick in my opinion at that price.

Zach's man Chris Conley is currently going 191st off the board. That is far too cheap. Unlike Hill, he has the prototypical size and athleticism to be a traditional WR1. I really like thinking about what Mahomes and Conley can do together. He's going after Tavon Austin, Wayne Gallman, and Matt Forte. Go forth and acquire some cheap shares!

I just traded Jay Ajayi in one league for Kareem Hunt, Kenny Golladay, and a 2018 1st. That tells you that I'm buying into the hype a bit. He was going 80th overall according to the most recent ADP, but I expect that to change with the news that Ware is out for the reason. Be careful about paying too much for him. He's in a great situation, but if he goes any higher you're absolutely buying at his ceiling.

Albert Wilson is the 265th player off the board and I'm somewhat surprised he made the list. There's not much reason to pay attention to him unless you're in a best ball league, and even then you could likely do better. I don't think being the Chiefs third receiver will be exciting at the very least until Mahomes becomes the starter.

So there you have it. Now we'll spend the rest of the season seeing if opposing defenses can "Catch Kelce". I have a feeling the answer is no.

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:

www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com , spotrac.com, and dynastyleaguefootball.com

Part 2: Projecting the Vikings Offense in 2017

Note: This is Part 2 of my Vikings article. To view Part 1 - A review of last year's offense, click here.

I am totally stealing the thunder from Bobby a bit here. He wrote a great piece on Sam Badford (typo intended) back in June. that was something of a precursor to his Breaking Down the Targets series. I’m going to make my own Vikings pass offense projections and if Bobby intends to do it as well, I don’t want this to stop him! First for Sam Bradford I’m projecting 584 passes, or about 36.5 per game. A slight decrease from his Shurmur numbers last year due to the RB additions.

I had already made these projections when the rumors popped up that Adam Thielen would appear more in the slot with Stefon Diggs on the outside. Both spent a decent amount of their snaps in the slot and the wonderful Scott Barrett was quick to point out that Thielen was the more successful of the two inside. To be clear they will both move around some but I think it definitely hurts Thielen's yards per catch a bit while raising his catch%. Here are Thielen's slot numbers last year via twitter. 25-281-2 on 31 targets. Not bad at all. With that in mind, here is how I think the numbers will play out:

Player Name	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Stefon Diggs	123	88	1117	6
Adam Thielen	111	80	970	5
Kyle Rudolph	122	78	850	6
Jerick McKinnon	78	66	482	2
Laquon Treadwell	70	41	521	3

That leaves 80 targets for the best of the rest, of which I would expect Dalvin Cook to probably receive 30-40 of. I had originally pegged Diggs as Golden Tate-esque as a possession receiver but I'm making the change to be a bit more bullish on him. It wouldn't be quite an elite season but a damn good one. In dynasty ADP (via DLF), he was the WR22 in the latest DLF mocks and I think that makes him slightly underrated. I’d prefer him over Jarvis Landry (WR20). In redraft ADP (via FFCalc) he is the PPR WR27 and I think he is an easy buy at that price. I’d take him a full round ahead of where he is currently going in the mid-5th.

Adam Thielen is not quite the high floor guy that Diggs is but I think he is a surprisingly safe play in his own right. Depending on just how much slot vs outside he plays, he has room for more as well. These numbers are actually a little bit worse than what he did in 9 games with Shurmur last year so if they seem surprising, think again! In both dynasty and redraft he is a huge buy for me.

Then we have Kyle Rudolph. Coming off his breakout season he should be back for more. Much like Thielen, these numbers are worse than what his per game stats were with Shurmur, and by quite a bit actually. His elite end of season pace required such a high amount of targets that it can’t continue. That said, once again he is a great fantasy value.

After the big three, if Jerick McKinnon can hit those numbers he will be a great PPR play. Dalvin Cook is the big thing that stands in his way but with how well McKinnon performed as a receiver at the end of 2016, I am confident he keeps this role. If he can get ~400 rush yards - which may be a stretch with Latavius also in the mix - he is a quality depth RB. Lastly with Treadwell I think dynasty owners looking for ANY sign of life. If he can get 500 yards with a not horrible catch % it will be just enough to say “Alright, maybe he’s still got a chance”. It’s very similar to the situation Breshad Perriman was in last year and now this year. If Treadwell is both healthy and under 50 targets in 2017, I’d say there is basically 0 chance of him becoming an impact player.

I'll go ahead and look at the Vikings run game as well. They were very consistent in their per game rush attempts with Pat Shurmur at the head of the offense with right around 21 to 21.5 per game. That should go up a bit. I'll put them at 380 carries which is 23.75 per game and still in the bottom ten overall. Despite Mike Zimmer's general hesitation to play rookies, there is just no way Dalvin Cook isn't far and away the leading rusher for this team.

Player	Rush Att	Yards	YPC	Rush TD
Dalvin Cook	230	1012	4.4	6
Latavius Murray	70	273	3.9	4
Jerick McKinnon	50	230	4.6	1

By and large, that should be considered a solid rookie campaign for Cook, especially with 150-200 rec yards on top of it. Worthy of his high dynasty price - an ADP of 37th overall? I'm a bit skeptical. I think I prefer some more proven talent in DeMarco, TyMo and Crowell first. The backup roles are where it gets interesting. I forecast Latavius for a very underwhelming backup role, albeit with some goal line vulture scores. Even at his very cheap dynasty ADP of RB61, he's a handcuff to Dalvin Cook. If I don't own Cook, I don't want him. I think McKinnon makes an excellent spell RB and this is backed up by his 5.2 YPC on 52 carries with 0 starts in 2015. Overall I have him projected for 66 recs, 712 YFS and 3 total TD. It's a bit short of the fantasy relevance I'd like to see, but really not that far off. A single injury could put him in good position. He remains a great bottom of roster player to own. As touched on in Part 1, he is literally dirt cheap in dynasty. His DLF ADP is 233rd overall, RB81. Considering the mocks only go to 240 picks he is truly a last round flier. I'd comfortably take him at least a few rounds earlier in the ~200 range.

A LOT went wrong for the Vikings offense last year. They managed to come out the other side of 2016 with a lot of reasons to be optimistic. The depleted offensive line was revamped with signings of Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers, plus the drafting of Pat Elflein 70th overall. They made significant additions to the run game. Notably, the Vikings seemed to have been as happy with the pass game as I was. They didn’t make any significant to changes to the heart of the pass attack. They did draft two WRs and a TE but none until the 5th round. With three relevant receivers plus a 4th on the fringe in RB Jerick McKinnon and a potentially every week fantasy starter in Dalvin Cook, things are looking great. Considering all that happened last year, I am excited for the potential of everything to go right in 2017.

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As always, stats pulled from www.pro-football-reference.com. ADP Data from www.dynastyleaguefootball.com and www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com.