DISCLAIMER: This article was originally written heavily featuring Sammy Watkins. I had done projections for the Bills' pass catchers with 16 games of Sammy and 8 games of Sammy. Life comes at you fast. The Bills traded Sammy to the Rams the very next day. If you see tear stains on this article, it's definitely just my allergies acting up. That's it, yup.
The trade of Sammy also led to the acquisition of Jordan Matthews. He's not the only significant piece that the Bills have acquired this off-season. They drafted Zay Jones, and signed Anquan Boldin to a one year deal. Let's take a look at what this means for the team going forward.
2016 Bills Passing Attempts
With the trade, the Bills just got rid of the last player they had on their roster that had seen 100 targets with the Bills. That's right folks. Not a single receiver has seen 100 or more targets in the Tyrod Taylor era. That wasn't different last season either. The Bills attempted 474 passes which ranked dead last in the league.
On the flip side of that-they rushed 492 times which was 2nd most in the league. You can see exactly what this team wanted to do with Rex Ryan. It's a run first ask questions later kind of team. That's been the case for a few years, but could change with some coaching hires the team made this season.
Here's what the breakdown of those attempts looked like:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Charles Clay
|
87
|
57
|
552
|
4
|
Robert Woods
|
76
|
51
|
613
|
1
|
Marquise Goodwin
|
68
|
29
|
431
|
3
|
Lesean McCoy
|
57
|
50
|
356
|
1
|
Sammy Watkins
|
52
|
28
|
430
|
2
|
Yuck. Yuck. More Yuck. When Sammy was almost your best receiver on only 52 targets you have serious problems. Let's take a look at what the team is doing to fix that.
2017 Predictions
The team did make a notable hire bringing in Rick Dennison to be their offensive coordinator. Since 2010, teams that have had him coaching in some capacity have failed to break 540 passing attempts only once. In fact, while serving for the coordinator Broncos last season he had the combination of Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch attempt 569 passes. If he's willing to the air the ball out that many times with those guys, just imagine what he might do with someone like Ty"god" Taylor.
I don't think the team is suddenly going to become incredibly pass heavy. Jokes about godliness aside, we are talking about a QB who is known more for his legs than his arm. He's never attempted 500 passes in his career. Then again, it's hard to attempt more than 500 passes when Rex Ryan was primarily your head coach. It's a wonder he threw the ball at all with how hard headed Rex is about his defensive and run game first approach.
I think that ends this season though. I expect with the hire of Dennison as well as the additions to the passing offense I mentioned earlier the team will try to balance it's offense a bit more. We'll see the team attempt 510 passes this season. Not awe inspiring but it would have bumped the Bills up to 28th in pass attempts last year. We might be able to find some fantasy relevance in those targets.
I think that ends this season though. I expect with the hire of Dennison as well as the additions to the passing offense I mentioned earlier the team will try to balance it's offense a bit more. We'll see the team attempt 510 passes this season. Not awe inspiring but it would have bumped the Bills up to 28th in pass attempts last year. We might be able to find some fantasy relevance in those targets.
So whose looking like the best for fantasy relevance of the Bills receivers? Originally, I had our old pal Sammy here. Now that he's gone, I have to think that it's Jordan Matthews. What's interesting is that according to Scott Barrett, the main three receivers of the Bills' all operate primarily out of the slot. However, Matthews has the size and speed to operate as an outside receiver too. He had some failed attempts on the outside in Philly but will likely at least see the Bills do some experimenting there. Either way, he will be a major part of the offense and will see 120 targets.
Some of you might be thinking "What about Zay Jones you moron? Don't you know he's already joined the pantheon of fantasy football greats?". As Aaron Rodgers once said, R-E-L-A-X. I think Zay Jones plays a good amount this season. He has the size and speed to play on the outside, and Boldin at this point of his career is more suited to a slot role. His chances of being the top dog in Buffalo are hurt with Jordan Matthews around, but Matthews is a free agent after the season. If the Bills don't like what they see they can easily move on and decide to give Zay the opportunity. I believe Zay will see 95 balls come his way this season.
Some of you might be thinking "What about Zay Jones you moron? Don't you know he's already joined the pantheon of fantasy football greats?". As Aaron Rodgers once said, R-E-L-A-X. I think Zay Jones plays a good amount this season. He has the size and speed to play on the outside, and Boldin at this point of his career is more suited to a slot role. His chances of being the top dog in Buffalo are hurt with Jordan Matthews around, but Matthews is a free agent after the season. If the Bills don't like what they see they can easily move on and decide to give Zay the opportunity. I believe Zay will see 95 balls come his way this season.
If this trade hurts anyone almost as much as me, it's Anquan Boldin. I originally had him getting almost all of the work out of the slot in my initial draft, but that's where I expect Jordan Matthews to operate. Boldin could never blow by defenders, and that isn't going to change at this point in his career. I also highly doubt he's utilized in the red zone quite as much as he was with the Lions last season. I still think the Bills will throw his way about 80 times though.
The reason I expect Boldin to operate as a more traditional receiver this season is the Bills already have a pretty solid tight end in Charles Clay. Clay was the TE17 in .5 PPR formats last season, and I don't expect much to change there. I think his volume will go down slightly, but nothing drastic. The good news for him is there isn't all that much on the depth chart to threaten him receiving close to all the targets for the tight end position. He will see 75 targets this upcoming season.
I know he's long gone but did Chip Kelly make a mistake getting rid of Lesean McCoy or what? All Shady has done for the Bills is be their most consistent offensive producer when Watkins can't be on the field. Since joining the Bills, he hasn't seen less than 50 targets despite their low volume passing offense. The man who is the answer to "Will the real Slim Shady please stand up" won't see his target volume decrease this year either. In fact, I think he sees an uptick to 65 targets.
The other 75 targets will likely go to Andre Holmes, Jonathan Williams, Nick O'Leary, and other end of the roster type of guys. It's also possible that one of the others sees their role increase, but that seems unlikely.
At last here are the projections:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Jordan Matthews
|
120
|
78
|
936
|
6
|
Zay Jones
|
95
|
60
|
690
|
4
|
Anquan Boldin
|
80
|
52
|
468
|
3
|
Charles Clay
|
75
|
49
|
490
|
4
|
Lesean McCoy
|
65
|
46
|
322
|
1
|
Dynasty Slant
Jordan Matthews is currently the 78th player off the board according to DLF's most recent ADP. This might be a first for this series, but I don't think that's either too high or too low. That seems about right for someone who could find himself as the WR1 of the future for the Bills, or find himself on yet another team next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo work out a contract extension with Matthews, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.
Zay Jones is an interesting value to me. He's currently going as the 116th player off the board after the likes of Kenneth Dixon, Brandon Marshall, and Quincy Enunwa. I have a feeling that may change soon. He's a strong buy at that price, and I'd look to acquire him before his owner realizes that they have a potential gem on their hands. Especially if Jordan Matthews is gone, Zay would be a target monster in 2018 and beyond.
Zay Jones is an interesting value to me. He's currently going as the 116th player off the board after the likes of Kenneth Dixon, Brandon Marshall, and Quincy Enunwa. I have a feeling that may change soon. He's a strong buy at that price, and I'd look to acquire him before his owner realizes that they have a potential gem on their hands. Especially if Jordan Matthews is gone, Zay would be a target monster in 2018 and beyond.
I can't really recommend Boldin as a buy. I'd target him if it is really late in your draft in a best ball league or if you're in an incredibly deep league (16 teams +), but that's about it. His best days are far behind him.
Lesean McCoy is the 37th player off the board. That means in a 12 team start-up he's going early in the 4th round. I know he's been nothing but productive, but I just can't get on board with that price for a 29 year old running back. I know he is under contract until 2020, but I just can't see much production for him after this season. Now that I've said that, he's going to pull a Frank Gore on me.
Charles Clay is the 221st player off the board, and seems to be the last bastion of late round tight end hope before things really taper off. If I was waiting on a tight end or wanted a cheap tight end for my bye weeks/in case of injury this would be my guy. He's worth it just for the ability to call him "Clay Face", which c'mon who doesn't love Batman villain references.
I'm not even going to talk about Andre Holmes. He doesn't belong on any roster. I'm willing to put my stamp on that. Feel free to tweet this article at me relentlessly when he somehow becomes the Bills WR1.
There you have it folks. I just wrote an article about one of the worst passing offenses in the league. The additions of Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones provide some hope. As does the addition of Rick Dennison to the coaching staff, but I wouldn't be looking to the Bills if I could avoid it. We're not entirely sure what their quarterback situation will be next year, and the Bills have a way of sneaking up on you in surprising ways.
*Pictured above-the Bills' front office as they sneak up on unsuspecting fans and players alike
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
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