Dirk Nowitzki: The European living out the American dream.

I think just about every sports kid dreams of it: You've made it to the highest level of your favorite professional sport, you've spent your entire career with one team, you've become a part of the community, you are tight with the owner, you're a perennial all-star guaranteed hall-of-famer, MVP player. That, my friends, is what all of us sports nuts dreamed of as a kid.

Of course, you might have noticed, one thing is missing: a ring. Now, kids don't grow up wishing they would have to wait until the later part of their career to win a championship, but from a media perspective, it is what fulfills the American dream story through sports. Rare is it that a beloved superstar wins a championship in the second half of his career, rarer still that it is a player who spends their entire career with one team. I think of A-Rod with the Yankees, but of course that was his third team and he is not nearly what one would call a beloved figure. However, the stories that surrounded his lack of a ring definitely bring him to mind anyway. Others that come to mind are Jamie Moyer, winning with the Phillies at age 45 in 2008, and Tim Wakefield getting his first ring at age 37 with the Red Sox in '04. Of course, these guys lack the star power the Nowitzki brings. I liken it to if Yankee great Don Mattingly had managed to win a championship. Going back to the 1950's, I found one player that I felt really fit the same mold as Dirk. You probably haven't heard the name unless you are a something of a baseball historian, but Warren Spahn spent the first 20 seasons of his career with the Braves of Boston and Milwaukee, and he didn't win a championship until 1957 at age 36.

It's the kind of heartwarming story that America loves. Unfortunately, I've been writing as if Nowitzki has already dominated the NBA Finals and has basked in the glory, but this is simply not the case. He has one major MAJOR obstacle left: The Big Three. I'm talking, of course, about Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. Fortunately, Dirk has Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, and Peja Stojakovic to help him give the Heat everything they've got. I consider myself a casual fan of the NBA, but I have a great feeling about this series. It's going to a be a great, heated battle all the way through. It is the perfect matchup of underdog Mavs vs. GIANT, HULKING villains in the Heat.

Whatever the outcome may be, let it be known I'm pulling for Nowitzki. The tall European with the unique style that makes him an offensive force...how can you not root for the Mavs against the team of sell-outs? It's one of the scenarios where my heart tells me the Mavericks have got this no problem, but my head tells me they don't stand a chance against the younger, more powerful Heat. Tune in at 9 PM EST on ABC for game one TONIGHT. (Tuesday)

Why interleague play in MLB is actually pretty cool, and how it could learn a thing or two from the NFL.

Apparently this week is “Everybody hate on interleague play” week in MLB. There has always been a little bit of hate for interleague, but this year it is out in full force. ESPN has wrote articles on why it sucks, Yahoo! Sports has talked about why it sucks, and even managers are now speaking out about how they don’t like it.

Well I’m here to disagree!!! I love interleague play. Being a Yankees fan, outside of the Red Sox you would have trouble finding a more exciting opponent that generates more buzz than the Mets. One of the biggest arguments against interleague play is the unbalanced schedules. Some teams play terrible opponents in the opposite league. This year the Dodgers and Red Sox have scored two of the best draws for facing mediocre opponents. And on the other hand, some playoff hopefuls face incredibly tough teams that perhaps their in-house division rival will not face once that year unless it is in the World Series. This year, playoff contending Cincinnati and Cleveland both have tough interleague schedules.

To that argument I say this: Uhhh…have you ever watched the NFL? The media and fans always make a huge deal out of strength-of-schedule. How much does it ever have an impact? Almost zero. The Patriots had one of the hardest schedules last year. Their record: 14-2. The easiest strength-of-schedule last year in the NFL was the Arizona Cardinals. Coming off two straight playoff appearances and the fact that they were in the very weak NFC West, the Cardinals odds were looking decent based on strength-of-schedule even without Kurt Warner. The end result was a 5-11 season, last in the worst division in the NFL. Why? Because schedules hardly matter, injuries and other unforeseeable events happen. And the ultimate reality is that the good teams find ways to win games, and the bad teams will manage to lose. Bringing it back to baseball, if the Cincinnati Reds are complaining about their schedule and struggling against their interleague opponents, then who cares? If you can’t beat the Yankees, Rays, and Indians now, you definitely won’t beat them come October, and so you are irrelevant anyway. If the Reds really are a talented team, they will find ways to win two of three games in each series. (It should be noted the Reds have lost their first two games to the Indians this year.) By the way, I’ve been watching a lot of the Yankees lately, they are definitely beatable, so I don’t know why teams like the Rockies are complaining.

With interleague play, you get matchups that you just can’t find within your own league. Anybody who loves baseball history like I do should be salivating at the thought of seeing the Cubs play at Fenway Park vs Boston for the first time since the 1918 World Series. It was also awesome to see the teams playing in 1918 styled jerseys as well. Also for once it was really cool to see the Florida state rivalry with both the Rays and Marlins well above .500. Interleague play also presents great opportunities for big-time free agents to face their favorite team. Cliff Lee faced the Rangers, whom he took to the World Series last year and absolutely dominated them last night. Later on in the season, we will get to see great matchups like the Yankees vs. the  Cubs, Milwaukee at Boston (actually pretty cool), and K-Rod facing his old team as the Angels play at the Mets.

Admittedly, yes there are some flaws to the system. Some teams get awful draws and boring matchups. Some teams have no true rival, so during rival week you will see the Detroit Tigers inexplicably facing the Pittsburgh Pirate. However, for the true baseball fan and casual alike, the novelty of seeing an opponent that you would never normally face should be intriguing enough. That said, I think there are solutions for this and baseball can take a lesson from the NFL. Pit divisions against each other and rotate by year. In the NFL, the four divisions in each conference will only face a division from the opposing conference once every four years. This way no one can complain about how one team faces tougher opponents than another within their division, and the match-ups don’t get stale and repetitive. Given the option of scrapping interleague play altogether, I’d much rather take the alternative. It’s great for fans, it’s great for the teams, and it’s great for the media. On the whole, interleague play will always manage to drum up exciting storylines no matter what teams are playing and I think and hope it’s here to stay.

You can kiss that one goodbye! How the long ball is making and reviving careers in a pitcher's era.

I'm not willing to officially declare this a pitcher's era yet, BUT its no secret that league ERA's have consistently declined over the past five years. Going back to 2006, just look at the facts:

• 2011 MLB ERA: 3.85
• 2010: 4.08
• 2009: 4.32
• 2008: 4.32
• 2007: 4.47
• 2006: 4.53

Now, say what you will as to WHY these numbers are in decline, but we won't get into that here. I'd like to look at the other side of the ball. In a new era where ERA's are down, Strikeouts per game are also up, and hits and HRs are down. But not for everybody. A few players have managed to continue the style of play we saw from the late 90's into the early 2000's: Mash everything and hit it as hard and as far as you can. Even better for these guys, the power hitters stand out that much more in the past two years than they would have if they hit 40 HR in 2002. Guys like Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman are defining and saving their careers respectively by going against the grain of what the league has become.

You had to know Jose Bautista would be discussed in this article. In a year when no one else in the AL hit so many as 40 home runs, Bautista slammed 54! That is incredible. It's not quite Babe Ruth-like incredible (When Ruth hit 54 in 1920, only one other entire team hit more than that), but its still extremely impressive. Albert Pujols had the second most home runs last year with 42, twelve less than Bautista. Even when Bonds led the league with 73 long balls, Sammy Sosa was just 9 behind. No, to find a comparable performance, you have to go all the way back to 1965 when the legendary Willie Mays hit 52 home runs, and second in the league was fellow teammate and hall-of-famer Willie McCovey with 39 home runs, a difference of 13. Bautista is in pretty good company.

We all wanted to jump up and say "Surely this won't last!", but of course it has. Through the first 33 games of 2011, Bautista has hit 16 HR and is on pace for 63. The scary part? A year ago today he was hitting .236 with 11 HR, and that was in 41 games! However, before 2010, Bautista was a journeyman player. In the five seasons prior, Bautista played 575 games and managed to hit 59 balls over the fence. And absolutely no team wanted him. In a span of one year Bautista was claimed in the Rule 5 draft by Baltimore from the Pittsburgh Pirates, then designated for assingment and claimed by Tampa Bay, then sold to the Kansas City Royals, then traded to the Mets, who traded him that same day BACK to the Pittsburgh Pirates, making Bautista's trip full circle. In 2008 the Pirates gave up on a guy who hit a career .241 for them and never hit more than 16 HR. The rest is history. Bautista is a true force to be reckoned with, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I guarantee he will hit 50 home runs this year, and I would love to see him make a run at Bonds record, although that is still unlikely at this point.

Bautista isn't the only player to reinvent himself. Lance Berkman, 35, is second in the National League in batting average and home runs, and leads the league in RBIs. Berkman was once a power hitting force for the Astros. Just five years ago he hit 45 homers and finished 3rd in the MVP voting. His power numbers have decreased every year since, culminating in a 14 HR total last year at age 35, causing many to declare the end for Berkman. However in the offseason, Berkman worked his tail off, and now he is back, on pace for 40 HR and an all-star appearance. Now one of my mantras is this: Age is the one opponent an athlete can't beat. I said it with Colon yesterday and I'll say it with Berkman today. He probably can't keep this up, but I won't rule out a .300/30 HR performance, which would still be a fantastic rebound. Consider that a career saved by overpowering the rest of the league in the new era.

Those are the two premier turn-arounds in the game today, but there are plenty of other guys to look at as well. Ryan Braun's power had declined each of the past two years, this year he is once again reaffirming his position as a slugger for years to come. Many expected Curtis Granderson to benefit from the generously short outfield corners at Yankee Stadium last year, and he disappointed with 24 home runs, this year he is hitting them everywhere, and is second in the majors with 14. Paul Konerko looked to be on his way out in Chicago, a fading star who once hit 40 over the walls in back-to-back seasons. Believe it or not, only Bautista has hit more home runs than the 35-year-old Konerko since the start of the 2010 season (49). Troy Tulowitzki was on pace for a career-high in homers last year before breaking his wrist and settling for 27 in 122 games. This year he has 11 already and has definitively become the premier power-hitting middle infielder. Lastly Alfonso Soriano has crushed the ball this year and may be looking at a renaissance from his days before the Cubs. Soriano is one of my favorite players from his Yankees days and has been largely disappointing for the Cubs. This year he is on pace for 45 home runs and even if he hit 30 it would be a nice rebound.

All of these guys have improved their home run totals in a year where fans are seeing just 0.88 home runs a game; the lowest total since 1992. That year Juan Gonzalez led the majors with 43 HR, the Pittsburgh Pirates had the 2nd best record in baseball at 96-66 (coincidentally, they have not had a winning season since), and the Toronto Blue Jays won their first of two back-to-back world series. The Blue Jays aren't world series contenders, but they do own the one truly dominant slugger in the game right now and arguably the best hitter in baseball with Bautista. While the other guys mentioned might not quite stack up, they are definitely showing improved strength over the rest of the guys in the league. I guess my only question is: If total home run rates are way down, and the numbers of these guys are up, who are the guys that are missing from the tops of the HR leaderboards and will they come back? Maybe I'll look into that another time!

To contact me, shoot me an e-mail z.wilkens@yahoo.com for questions, comments, or whatever!

Why the Yankees are in trouble. (No, its not the fault of Posada or Jeter)

The Yankees are in trouble. Real season-long trouble. Not just the day-to-day grumblings of veteran players who may or may not have finally lost their skills. No sir, the Yankees are in the kind of trouble that will last the entire season. Their rotation is bad, really bad for a team that still thinks they can win the World Series. In detail, let’s take a look at why it is so bad.

Pitching –

Everyone knew the Yankees pitching was going to be the weak spot. Andy Pettitte retired. Then, they failed to get Cliff Lee this offseason, and didn’t acquire another big name free agent pitcher elsewhere. If things couldn’t get worse, All-star pitcher Phil Hughes looked horrifyingly similar to Chien-Ming Wang from 2009. For those of you that don’t recall, Wang pitched in 12 games with a 9.64 ERA before going on the DL that year and hasn’t pitched since. He’s now with the Nationals. Phil Hughes this year had a 13.94 ERA which is insane, even for 3 starts, and was giving out home runs like they were party favors. Dustin Pedroia and Nick Markakis, both of whom have struggled mightily out of the gate this season, each hit homers against the struggling Hughes. After going on the DL with no real cause for the injury, he has been supposedly building up arm strength, but still has no timetable for his return, and no one has a clue to whether he can pitch with the velocity he had in the middle of last year.

So the Yankees rotation was lacking big time. Who are expected to be the saviors? Big Fat Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova. Even now, when Colon and Garcia are looking decent to great,  I would be amazed if any of them end with more than 20 starts or an ERA under 4.00. Bartolo Colon didn’t even pitch in 2010, so whats the apparent secret to his success this year? Stem cell treatment. Bone marrow stem cells were placed in Colon’s elbow to repair ligament damage, and apparently it has worked like a charm. I don’t know much about the whole stem cell process, but this is awesome. Colon’s fastball is back up to speed and he is throwing without pain in his arm. Apparently he is so pain-free that he is throwing fastballs at a rate of more than 90% per outing. That is insane. Because of this, everyone is all excited about him, ignoring the underlying facts that he is still 38 years old and looked fairly terrible from 2006-2009. In all likelihood, one surgery cannot undo all of these facts for the 38 year old. You can keep buying on Colon, but I’m selling right now.

Freddy Garcia is somewhat of a different story. He is only 34, but he was a workhorse who pitched over 200 innings seven times in his twenties. It appeared at age 30 that he had already hit  a wall, and has shown nothing since to suggest otherwise. Last year his K rate was at an all-time low. This year it has returned to the highest levels it’s been since he was 27. I don’t know about you, but that looks unsustainable to me. He’s also walking guys at a higher clip than he has since his first two years in the big leagues. There is also evidence to suggest he has been fairly lucky up to this point. He has a high strand rate, that is to say, he has a left a lot of runners on base, which is something that tends to normalize around 70%, this year he has left 86% of runners on base. His BABIP is also below career levels, which means he is likely to start allowing more hits.

The rest of the staff is pitching about as expected. Sabathia is doing decently, and will probably get a little bit better as the season goes on. (He always underperforms in April.) Nova is pitching right about as expected, 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He is projected to be a #4 or #5 starter in the big leagues, and his numbers are on par with an average back-of-the-rotation guy. However, the Yankees are no average team, at some point Nova will have to be replaced by a higher quality pitcher. And of course, A.J. Burnett is pitching like his overrated self. An ERA around 4, eating up a decent amount of innings for the Yankees, but not performing like the all-star that people for some reason expect him to be. (Note: Burnett has never been to an all-star game and probably never will)

In summation the Yankees rotation goes like this: One great pitcher, one guy who is pitching good and could sustain it but probably won’t, one guy who is pitching good and has been very lucky and will probably get bad sooner rather than later, one guy eating up innings but not pitching like the all-star he isn’t, and a young guy who could make it on an average team, but the Yankees are no average team. Hopefully Phil Hughes can come back strong, but even if he does, they will need another arm in that rotation if they want to contend for a playoff spot. I’ve heard rumors about Felix Hernandez being available, but I doubt the Yankees have what it takes to get that deal done. I’ve also heard that the Yankees would be interested in Francisco Liriano, who the Twins are indeed considering trading, but he is a major warning sign at this point. Even with the no-hitter this season has been ugly.

Realistic possible options include Brett Myers of the Astros who would be a nice #3 or #4 starter for this year and the next, or perhaps Erik Bedard who is only signed through this year, making him low-risk and potentially high reward with the skillset he has. Of course, there is always a surprise team that becomes sellers, and a bigger name comes out on the trading block. That team this year is the White Sox, all five of their pitchers are decent. Edwin Jackson is the most likely candidate, considering he is a free agent after this year and is aggravatingly inconsistent, although great at times. That is the kind of guy the Yankees would be willing to take a risk on. Although rest assured, I am sure they will ask about the possibility of John Danks, who is Jackson’s much more talented teammate. Lastly, I’m going to throw out a couple more guys who are free agents and possible guys that these teams would love to trade for rebuilding chips: Ryan Dempster and Brad Penny.