Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Jun 13, 2020
Jun 5, 2017
Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tiers 1 & 2
Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'
Precursor: Thanks to those who voted! I asked if people wanted rankings or individual player pieces and you chose rankings. I still hope to get to more article style writing later on in the year. These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
The top tier of quarterbacks consists includes the best of the best. These guys have proven production and generally both a high floor and high ceiling. They all should have 3+ years of top production remaining. I don’t generally value QBs too highly in a standard 1QB league but I would value these players at a 1st+. In 2QB, probably about three 1sts.
Age: 27/28
First the bad - I struggled with this one. Luck finished just 11th in ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) last year. After T.Y. Hilton his receivers are talented but unproven (add Dorsett and Kamar Aiken as the next two after the trio above). He missed time in 2015 with a shoulder injury, missed a game in 2016 due to a concussion and is currently recuperating from offseason shoulder surgery (He is not expected to miss any regular season games). So there is definitely a bit of an injury history with Luck that doesn’t get talked about often.
So what makes Andrew Luck my #1 dynasty QB? Despite a not so great corps of receivers, he did finish 4th in PPG last year and Moncrief and Doyle may get better. Luck has dealt with a poor offensive line the past few years and while it is still not great, the Colts have their starting 5 from the end of last season returning. Three of those players were rookies last year. That kind of stability could go a long way. There is definitely room to continue improving the receivers and offensive line. I see several more top 5 seasons in Luck’s future and likely some #1 seasons as well.
One of the greatest QBs to ever play the game, is it time to start holding Rodgers’ age against him? I say yes but only to a very small extent. You never know when the decline may come. We have been spoiled by the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and even Brett Favre playing at a very high level in their late 30s in recent years, but that simply doesn’t happen with everyone and to assume it will with Rodgers simply because he is an all-time great would be a mistake.
Rogers was very good but not great in 2015. He had a 16 game stretch from the 6th game of 2015 to the 5th game of 2016 where he had 600 pass attempts but just a 58% completion rate, 3700 yards and 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. That is a fine player but well below what we’ve come to expect from Rodgers. In the final 14 games of last year including playoffs, Rodgers was playing as good as he ever had. His numbers during those games? 66.8% completion rate, 4262 pass yards and a 39:5 TD:INT ratio. There’s no reason to think he’ll stop putting up those top QB numbers again anytime soon.
If there is one area of concern to be aware about it is that prior to the 2016 season, the team surprisingly cut G Josh Sitton. Following the season they let go of their other long time Guard T.J. Lang. He was replaced by aging former stud Jahri Evans who will be 34 before the season starts. Rodgers is definitely a QB that makes the job of his offensive lineman easier and they still have an above average line overall but losing such quality players in back-to-back years is worth noting. Rodgers will decline eventually but all signs point to at least a couple more years at the top of the QB rankings.
I have to admit, I looove Russell Wilson. He is a very different QB from Andrew Luck as well. For starters 2016 was his most passing attempts yet at 546. Andrew Luck had 545 in one less game and averaged 604 passes in his three prior full seasons. Wilson’s value comes in part due to his very high floor. He has finished 11th or better in total points in all five of his seasons. This was in large part thanks to never missing a game. Up until last year when he dealt with a bad ankle he was also aided by above average mobility. Assuming his ankle is 100%, I do expect some more running again in 2017.
Outside of the lack of mobility in 2016, Wilson’s numbers declined in part thanks to an abnormally low TD%. Through 7 games, Wilson was throwing more than ever but had just 5 touchdowns. Over the final 11 games including two playoff games, Wilson threw 20 touchdowns. This represented a 5.5% TD rate, much closer to his career average of 6.1% before 2016. My point here is that I don’t see a repeat of 2016’s stats and that Russ should continue to put up top 10 or better seasons going forward. I also think his receivers are underrated. He may not have a T.Y. Hilton but Doug Baldwin has emerged as an excellent player. The rest of his receivers all have very different qualities from one another (throw rookie Amara Darboh in that mix as well) that will complement each other nicely.
The Seahawks offensive line was genuinely horrendous in 2016. They signed Luke Joeckel (a draft bust for sure but he does actually represent a likely upgrade for Seattle), drafted Ethan Pocic 58th overall and are desperately hoping for improvement from 2016 1st rounder Germain Ifedi who finished 72nd of 72 qualifying Guards according to PFF player grades. They still have a ways to go to fix this line long term but they should be a little better this year and that will only help.
In 2015, Cam had his best season to date with 3800 pass yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 630 rush yards and 10 rush TDs to go along with it. I’d go so far to say it was one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. Everything that went right in ‘15 went wrong in ‘16 as he had career worsts in pass TD %, completion % and rush yards while tying his previous low of 5 rushing TDs. The fact that he was still the 11th best fantasy QB in PPG was pretty impressive. Further hurting his value, he also had offseason shoulder surgery much like Andrew Luck.
The Panthers wasted no time trying to make sure Cam would not have another “poor” season. The Panthers picked three times in the first two rounds. They drafted RB Christian McCaffrey, a WR hybrid in Curtis Samuel and G Taylor Moton. They also spent a surprisingly high amount of money on FA Matt Kalil who at best could have been described as inconsistent during his time with the Vikings. I’m on record stating I love the fit of both McCaffrey and Samuel and I think they will be huge for the Panthers passing game.
Cam gets unfairly tagged as an injury prone player. He does play physical and takes hits thanks to how often he runs. He does play banged up from time to time and I think that played a part in his poor 2016 season. That said, he has played in 93 of a possible 96 regular season games and 99 of 102 games including playoffs. There is always a little recency bias when a player is coming off a disappointing year. You can take advantage of that by acquiring Cam this offseason!
I hesitated a bit before including Matt Ryan as the last player in my first tier. He was never a top 5 QB before last year and will he be able to maintain the success that came with Kyle Shanahan? I’m not 100% certain but I do think he will enjoy several more years of quality production. For starters Matt Ryan averaged 4500 passing yards and 27 pass TDs in the five years prior to his 2016 breakout campaign. Even with some dropoff he is probably a top 5 QB.
He also has an excellent supporting cast around him. That starts with one of the best WRs in the game in Julio Jones. I also think while Devonta Freeman’s ability as a pass catcher is appreciated, the RB duo’s value to the passing game combined is a little underrated. Along with Tevin Coleman, the two put up a receiving line of 85-883-5 last year. Throw in Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and promising young TE Austin Hooper and you have a team that is built to continue putting up big offensive numbers.
The next 4 players represent the future of the QB position in dynasty. These young players already have a good season or two under their belt with room to grow. I would put their worth at a mid to late 1st in 1QB and 2 to 2.5 1sts in 2QB.
Yes, Winston is my favorite of the second and third year QBs. For starters he is the youngest at just 23 years old. His age adjusted production is just phenomenal. There are 6 QBs that have thrown for 3000 yards at age 22 or younger. Jameis is the only one to do it at 21. There are 3 QBs to throw 4000+ yards at 22 or younger. Jameis has done it twice. He is also one of nine players to throw for 20+ TDs at 22 or younger and again holds the sole distinction of doing it twice as well as the record for most touchdowns by a player that young with 28 last year.
That brings us to 2017. Coming off a 4000 yard 28 TD season the Bucs gave Winston upgrades at every position. It starts with the big FA signing of Desean Jackson. DJax and his speed are a perfect complement to Mike Evans. In the draft they took O.J. Howard 19th overall and he should come in and start right away or at least make a very nice duo with Cameron Brate. In the third they took Chris Godwin who is one of my favorite receivers in the draft and will have an opportunity to be the long time #2 for the Bucs. They weren’t done though as they added a quality pass catching RB in Jeremy McNichols in the 5th round as well. It is not unrealistic to forecast a jump into the top tier after this season.
Much like with Jameis Winston's Bucs, the Titans have focused on giving their young franchise QB as many weapons as possible. Last year they focused on the run game and the offensive line with DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry and Jack Conklin. This year it was all about the pass game with Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith all in the top 100 picks. Mariota had a fantastic sophomore campaign, improving both his TD% and INT% to numbers that were actually better than Winston’s. The flipside is that most notably Mariota is recovering from a broken leg and missed multiple games as a rookie with two separate sprained MCLs. Mariota’s smaller frame has led to some worry about his ability to hold up over a full season and the injuries certainly haven’t helped.
The biggest piece missing for Mariota was a true #1 WR and the Titans hope to have found that in Corey Davis. Davis, Rishard Matthews and Taywan Taylor make a very talented trio although it may take a year for the rookies to really hit their stride. At tight end Delanie Walker is older but I did really like the pick of Jonnu Smith. Really the only thing limiting Mariota is that he won’t throw nearly as much as Winston - the Titans finished 28th in pass attempts last year, content to run the ball as much as possible with Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The added receivers will improve that number for sure, but don’t expect a pass heavy offense in the next couple of years.
Prescott is coming off what I would consider the greatest rookie QB season of all-time. Adjusted for era Dan Marino’s rookie campaign may be better but the point stands! Dak was phenomenal with numbers that rookie QBs just don’t put up like a 23:4 TD:INT ratio and a 67.8% completion rate. Where can he go from here? About that...I worry about his ceiling in the short term because this offense is built for its power run game. While Dez is still very good, he hasn’t been quite as good the last two years and the rest of the receivers are lacking. At some point, hopefully with next year’s free agency and draft class they will give the passing game some newer younger weapons.
Dak reminds me a lot of a less mobile Russell Wilson. Both came in as a mid-round draft picks that were not expected to start right away. For different reasons, they did and put up extremely strong seasons in doing so. Aided by a good offense all around them, the two QBs had some of the normal pressures of being a rookie QB starter taken off of them. Much like Wilson, Dak will be very capable of multiple top ten seasons in the short term but the team is going to remain in the bottom ten for passing attempts (they were 30th in 2016). It’s a matter of floor vs ceiling with Dak and I do believe his floor will stay extremely high. That consistency he showed as a rookie is extremely valuable.
The last promising young QB of this tier is Derek Carr. Carr was the most successful of the four in 2016 but is also the oldest and is coming off a broken leg. Nor did the Raiders invest so heavily in the passing game. While they have nice receivers it isn’t quite as sexy as Mariota or Winston. Adding Marshawn Lynch may mean a decrease in pass attempts but Lynch was always a decent receiver and should help more than he hurts. The Raiders also have a phenomenal pass blocking line. The line allowed just 18 sacks. That was just one of six times in the past five years that a team allowed 20 or fewer sacks.
Looking at Carr’s weapons, Amari Cooper has been a curious player. He is certainly extremely talented but he has not been favored in the Red Zone. Over the last two seasons, the Raiders have passed in the red zone 146 times. Cooper has seen just 20 of those targets with only 8 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile Seth Roberts has 29 red zone targets on far fewer total targets. He’s also been more successful with 9 red zone touchdowns. Is this just a two year statistical oddity? For Carr to be his best I think it needs to change, and it likely will. I also hope the Raiders will be more aggressive acquiring offensive talent in the next couple of seasons. Crabtree turns 30 in September and Cook/Lynch are even older.
Precursor: Thanks to those who voted! I asked if people wanted rankings or individual player pieces and you chose rankings. I still hope to get to more article style writing later on in the year. These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
Tier 1
The top tier of quarterbacks consists includes the best of the best. These guys have proven production and generally both a high floor and high ceiling. They all should have 3+ years of top production remaining. I don’t generally value QBs too highly in a standard 1QB league but I would value these players at a 1st+. In 2QB, probably about three 1sts.
1.) Andrew Luck
Age: 27/28
2016 PPG: 21.3 (4th)
HC/OC: Chuck Pagano / Rob Chudzinski
Top Receivers: T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Jack Doyle
First the bad - I struggled with this one. Luck finished just 11th in ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) last year. After T.Y. Hilton his receivers are talented but unproven (add Dorsett and Kamar Aiken as the next two after the trio above). He missed time in 2015 with a shoulder injury, missed a game in 2016 due to a concussion and is currently recuperating from offseason shoulder surgery (He is not expected to miss any regular season games). So there is definitely a bit of an injury history with Luck that doesn’t get talked about often.
So what makes Andrew Luck my #1 dynasty QB? Despite a not so great corps of receivers, he did finish 4th in PPG last year and Moncrief and Doyle may get better. Luck has dealt with a poor offensive line the past few years and while it is still not great, the Colts have their starting 5 from the end of last season returning. Three of those players were rookies last year. That kind of stability could go a long way. There is definitely room to continue improving the receivers and offensive line. I see several more top 5 seasons in Luck’s future and likely some #1 seasons as well.
2.) Aaron Rodgers
Age: 33/34
2016 PPG: 23.9 (1st)
HC/OC: Mike McCarthy / Edgar Bennett
Top Receivers: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett, Ty Montgomery
One of the greatest QBs to ever play the game, is it time to start holding Rodgers’ age against him? I say yes but only to a very small extent. You never know when the decline may come. We have been spoiled by the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and even Brett Favre playing at a very high level in their late 30s in recent years, but that simply doesn’t happen with everyone and to assume it will with Rodgers simply because he is an all-time great would be a mistake.
Rogers was very good but not great in 2015. He had a 16 game stretch from the 6th game of 2015 to the 5th game of 2016 where he had 600 pass attempts but just a 58% completion rate, 3700 yards and 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. That is a fine player but well below what we’ve come to expect from Rodgers. In the final 14 games of last year including playoffs, Rodgers was playing as good as he ever had. His numbers during those games? 66.8% completion rate, 4262 pass yards and a 39:5 TD:INT ratio. There’s no reason to think he’ll stop putting up those top QB numbers again anytime soon.
If there is one area of concern to be aware about it is that prior to the 2016 season, the team surprisingly cut G Josh Sitton. Following the season they let go of their other long time Guard T.J. Lang. He was replaced by aging former stud Jahri Evans who will be 34 before the season starts. Rodgers is definitely a QB that makes the job of his offensive lineman easier and they still have an above average line overall but losing such quality players in back-to-back years is worth noting. Rodgers will decline eventually but all signs point to at least a couple more years at the top of the QB rankings.
3.) Russell Wilson
Age: 28/29
2016 PPG: 17.1 (16th)
HC/OC: Pete Carroll / Darrell Bevell
Top Receivers: Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, C.J. Prosise
I have to admit, I looove Russell Wilson. He is a very different QB from Andrew Luck as well. For starters 2016 was his most passing attempts yet at 546. Andrew Luck had 545 in one less game and averaged 604 passes in his three prior full seasons. Wilson’s value comes in part due to his very high floor. He has finished 11th or better in total points in all five of his seasons. This was in large part thanks to never missing a game. Up until last year when he dealt with a bad ankle he was also aided by above average mobility. Assuming his ankle is 100%, I do expect some more running again in 2017.
Outside of the lack of mobility in 2016, Wilson’s numbers declined in part thanks to an abnormally low TD%. Through 7 games, Wilson was throwing more than ever but had just 5 touchdowns. Over the final 11 games including two playoff games, Wilson threw 20 touchdowns. This represented a 5.5% TD rate, much closer to his career average of 6.1% before 2016. My point here is that I don’t see a repeat of 2016’s stats and that Russ should continue to put up top 10 or better seasons going forward. I also think his receivers are underrated. He may not have a T.Y. Hilton but Doug Baldwin has emerged as an excellent player. The rest of his receivers all have very different qualities from one another (throw rookie Amara Darboh in that mix as well) that will complement each other nicely.
The Seahawks offensive line was genuinely horrendous in 2016. They signed Luke Joeckel (a draft bust for sure but he does actually represent a likely upgrade for Seattle), drafted Ethan Pocic 58th overall and are desperately hoping for improvement from 2016 1st rounder Germain Ifedi who finished 72nd of 72 qualifying Guards according to PFF player grades. They still have a ways to go to fix this line long term but they should be a little better this year and that will only help.
4.) Cam Newton
Age: 28
2016 PPG: 17.9 (11th)
HC/OC: Ron Rivera / Mike Shula
Top Receivers: Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin, Curtis Samuel, Christian McCaffrey
In 2015, Cam had his best season to date with 3800 pass yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 630 rush yards and 10 rush TDs to go along with it. I’d go so far to say it was one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. Everything that went right in ‘15 went wrong in ‘16 as he had career worsts in pass TD %, completion % and rush yards while tying his previous low of 5 rushing TDs. The fact that he was still the 11th best fantasy QB in PPG was pretty impressive. Further hurting his value, he also had offseason shoulder surgery much like Andrew Luck.
The Panthers wasted no time trying to make sure Cam would not have another “poor” season. The Panthers picked three times in the first two rounds. They drafted RB Christian McCaffrey, a WR hybrid in Curtis Samuel and G Taylor Moton. They also spent a surprisingly high amount of money on FA Matt Kalil who at best could have been described as inconsistent during his time with the Vikings. I’m on record stating I love the fit of both McCaffrey and Samuel and I think they will be huge for the Panthers passing game.
Cam gets unfairly tagged as an injury prone player. He does play physical and takes hits thanks to how often he runs. He does play banged up from time to time and I think that played a part in his poor 2016 season. That said, he has played in 93 of a possible 96 regular season games and 99 of 102 games including playoffs. There is always a little recency bias when a player is coming off a disappointing year. You can take advantage of that by acquiring Cam this offseason!
5.) Matt Ryan
Age: 32
2016 PPG: 22.0 (2nd)
HC/OC: Dan Quinn / Steve Sarkisian
Top Receivers: Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu
I hesitated a bit before including Matt Ryan as the last player in my first tier. He was never a top 5 QB before last year and will he be able to maintain the success that came with Kyle Shanahan? I’m not 100% certain but I do think he will enjoy several more years of quality production. For starters Matt Ryan averaged 4500 passing yards and 27 pass TDs in the five years prior to his 2016 breakout campaign. Even with some dropoff he is probably a top 5 QB.
He also has an excellent supporting cast around him. That starts with one of the best WRs in the game in Julio Jones. I also think while Devonta Freeman’s ability as a pass catcher is appreciated, the RB duo’s value to the passing game combined is a little underrated. Along with Tevin Coleman, the two put up a receiving line of 85-883-5 last year. Throw in Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and promising young TE Austin Hooper and you have a team that is built to continue putting up big offensive numbers.
Tier 2
The next 4 players represent the future of the QB position in dynasty. These young players already have a good season or two under their belt with room to grow. I would put their worth at a mid to late 1st in 1QB and 2 to 2.5 1sts in 2QB.
6.) Jameis Winston
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 16.9 (17th)
HC/OC: Dirk Koetter / Todd Monken
Top Receivers: Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin
Yes, Winston is my favorite of the second and third year QBs. For starters he is the youngest at just 23 years old. His age adjusted production is just phenomenal. There are 6 QBs that have thrown for 3000 yards at age 22 or younger. Jameis is the only one to do it at 21. There are 3 QBs to throw 4000+ yards at 22 or younger. Jameis has done it twice. He is also one of nine players to throw for 20+ TDs at 22 or younger and again holds the sole distinction of doing it twice as well as the record for most touchdowns by a player that young with 28 last year.
That brings us to 2017. Coming off a 4000 yard 28 TD season the Bucs gave Winston upgrades at every position. It starts with the big FA signing of Desean Jackson. DJax and his speed are a perfect complement to Mike Evans. In the draft they took O.J. Howard 19th overall and he should come in and start right away or at least make a very nice duo with Cameron Brate. In the third they took Chris Godwin who is one of my favorite receivers in the draft and will have an opportunity to be the long time #2 for the Bucs. They weren’t done though as they added a quality pass catching RB in Jeremy McNichols in the 5th round as well. It is not unrealistic to forecast a jump into the top tier after this season.
7.) Marcus Mariota
Age: 23/24
2016 PPG: 17.7 (14th)
HC/OC: Mike Mularkey / Terry Robiskie
Top Receivers: Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, Demarco Murray, Taywan Taylor
Much like with Jameis Winston's Bucs, the Titans have focused on giving their young franchise QB as many weapons as possible. Last year they focused on the run game and the offensive line with DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry and Jack Conklin. This year it was all about the pass game with Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith all in the top 100 picks. Mariota had a fantastic sophomore campaign, improving both his TD% and INT% to numbers that were actually better than Winston’s. The flipside is that most notably Mariota is recovering from a broken leg and missed multiple games as a rookie with two separate sprained MCLs. Mariota’s smaller frame has led to some worry about his ability to hold up over a full season and the injuries certainly haven’t helped.
The biggest piece missing for Mariota was a true #1 WR and the Titans hope to have found that in Corey Davis. Davis, Rishard Matthews and Taywan Taylor make a very talented trio although it may take a year for the rookies to really hit their stride. At tight end Delanie Walker is older but I did really like the pick of Jonnu Smith. Really the only thing limiting Mariota is that he won’t throw nearly as much as Winston - the Titans finished 28th in pass attempts last year, content to run the ball as much as possible with Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The added receivers will improve that number for sure, but don’t expect a pass heavy offense in the next couple of years.
8.) Dak Prescott
Age: 24
2016 PPG: 17.9 (12th)
HC/OC: Jason Garrett / Scott Linehan
Top Receivers: Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley
Prescott is coming off what I would consider the greatest rookie QB season of all-time. Adjusted for era Dan Marino’s rookie campaign may be better but the point stands! Dak was phenomenal with numbers that rookie QBs just don’t put up like a 23:4 TD:INT ratio and a 67.8% completion rate. Where can he go from here? About that...I worry about his ceiling in the short term because this offense is built for its power run game. While Dez is still very good, he hasn’t been quite as good the last two years and the rest of the receivers are lacking. At some point, hopefully with next year’s free agency and draft class they will give the passing game some newer younger weapons.
Dak reminds me a lot of a less mobile Russell Wilson. Both came in as a mid-round draft picks that were not expected to start right away. For different reasons, they did and put up extremely strong seasons in doing so. Aided by a good offense all around them, the two QBs had some of the normal pressures of being a rookie QB starter taken off of them. Much like Wilson, Dak will be very capable of multiple top ten seasons in the short term but the team is going to remain in the bottom ten for passing attempts (they were 30th in 2016). It’s a matter of floor vs ceiling with Dak and I do believe his floor will stay extremely high. That consistency he showed as a rookie is extremely valuable.
9.) Derek Carr
Age: 26
2016 PPG: 18.2 (9th)
HC/OC: Jack Del Rio / Todd Downing
Top Receivers: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook
The last promising young QB of this tier is Derek Carr. Carr was the most successful of the four in 2016 but is also the oldest and is coming off a broken leg. Nor did the Raiders invest so heavily in the passing game. While they have nice receivers it isn’t quite as sexy as Mariota or Winston. Adding Marshawn Lynch may mean a decrease in pass attempts but Lynch was always a decent receiver and should help more than he hurts. The Raiders also have a phenomenal pass blocking line. The line allowed just 18 sacks. That was just one of six times in the past five years that a team allowed 20 or fewer sacks.
Looking at Carr’s weapons, Amari Cooper has been a curious player. He is certainly extremely talented but he has not been favored in the Red Zone. Over the last two seasons, the Raiders have passed in the red zone 146 times. Cooper has seen just 20 of those targets with only 8 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile Seth Roberts has 29 red zone targets on far fewer total targets. He’s also been more successful with 9 red zone touchdowns. Is this just a two year statistical oddity? For Carr to be his best I think it needs to change, and it likely will. I also hope the Raiders will be more aggressive acquiring offensive talent in the next couple of seasons. Crabtree turns 30 in September and Cook/Lynch are even older.
Jun 1, 2017
Dynasty Deep Dive - Five more players to consider in your rookie draft!
As I tweeted out right after I published my 4th round article, I still had a number of dynasty prospects that intrigued me. My drafts may only be 48 to 49 picks (depending on a toilet bowl bonus pick!) but there are still players out there that I wanted to highlight. In fact even after this article I may have a few more I want to bring up! Anyway, these players are not too far off from my 4th rounders and could be taken in the 40s without issue from me.
WR Ishmael Zamora, Oakland Raiders
If you’re reading this article you are probably enough of a dynasty nut to know why Zamora did not get drafted. Despite size (6’4” 224 lbs) that offensive coordinators would drool over and above average athleticism, no team wanted to risk the backlash of drafting Zamora. His offence: disciplining his dog by whipping his rottweiler with a belt. There is video of it but frankly I couldn’t bring myself to watch it. Zamora had a 63-809-8 line in 10 games and definitely flashed star potential. He was inconsistent though and after leaving college with just one year as a starter, he will likely have a harder time adjusting to the NFL. I don’t see myself taking him in my rookie draft but I would have to consider adding him if he was available on waivers afterward.RB T.J. Logan, Arizona Cardinals
If you own David Johnson, it is an absolute must that you find a way to get your hands on this speedster. With very little competition to speak of, Logan is almost guaranteed the handcuff role to DJ. On his own merit, he is an intriguing dynasty flier as well. He was the fastest RB at the combine at a 4.37. He caught 76 passes in college. Should anything happen to David Johnson (though I certainly hope that isn’t the case!) you can expect Logan would fill some of that void in the passing game along with picking up carries. The biggest issue with Logan is that he never had a feature role in college. He led the RBs in touches at UNC in 2014 but it was just 119 carries as the offense centered around QB Marquise Williams who had 193 carries. In 2015 and 16 he was the lesser half of a decent but not great RB duo with Elijah Hood. However, thanks to a strong combine and landing spot, Logan is the one to own in dynasty. Let me reiterate though that if you own David Johnson, Logan is an absolute must grab. Make sure you have a 4th round pick to spend on him.WR Jehu Chesson, Kansas City Chiefs
Going into the 2016 season I think Chesson and his fellow Wolverine Amara Darboh were about equal as NFL prospects. Coming out of the season Darboh had clearly set himself apart. Chesson was slightly more productive in 2015 but for whatever reason, QB Wilton Speight heavily preferred Darboh and even TE Jake Butt as Chesson slid from a line of 50-764-9 to 35-500-2. Yikes. Chesson recouped some value with a fantastic combine where he ranked as the 14th best WR in SPARQ (Darboh was 18th). Chesson ran a 4.47 in the 40 which was excellent for his size (6’3” 204 lbs). He also ranked above average in every other drill outside of the bench press. His value hinged on the outcome of the NFL draft and going at the end of the 4th to the Chiefs was just okay at best. He gives future starter Patrick Mahomes another fast and big target to go along with Chris Conley. For 2017 don’t expect much of an impact if any as Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be the main weapons in the passing game.RB Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
I love me some Tarik Cohen. He was insanely productive at FCS North Carolina A&T. He was a four year starter with a final season of 1927 YFS and 19 TDs. Those numbers came with a 7.5 YPC and 37 receptions. He is also fast - he ran a 4.42 at the combine. According to mockdraftable, he has massive hands at 10 and an eighth inches, 95th percentile. That’s great for the pass-catching back he profiles as. What kept him off my top 48? Well he’s tiny. 5’6” 179 lbs. He’s not strong either with a 2nd percentile bench press. He reminds me of the faster but similar sized Dri Archer. Archer was drafted in the 3rd round by the Steelers and ended up being a zero in the NFL. What may separate Cohen from Archer is that Tarik was far more productive in college with a much bigger sample size as well. Cohen is never going to be a feature back so I don’t really factor Jordan Howard into his value. Cohen’s best bet at relevance will be a third down back and his speed and hand size give him a lot of potential in that role. Watch the vid below, ‘nuff said.TE Bucky Hodges, Vikings
This is a very deep class for TEs and Bucky Hodges continues the trend. Hodges is extremely athletic, and ranks 3rd in SPARQ score among TEs. He was also a three year starter with nice numbers. He was originally recruited to Virginia Tech as a quarterback but quickly moved to tight end. The fact that he was able to make an impact as a redshirt freshman with very little experience really was amazing. Many draft analysts had Hodges as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. For whatever reason he fell all the way to the Vikings in the 6th round, 201st overall. The most likely reason for his draft day fall was that he still has a ways to go as a receiver. ProFootballFocus compared him to Jimmy Graham but also cited a very high drop rate as a concern. He will likely need a year or two to adapt to the NFL and continue honing his skills as a pass catcher but Hodges has a very high ceiling and is well worth considering in the 4th round of your draft.Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 4th Round
I’d say this is where we look at the really deep sleepers and identify some rather unknown players but honestly, there are a number of high profile names that fell to my 4th round for any number of reasons. There are multiple players drafted in the top 100 still to be named. Multiple combine darlings. Multiple FBS stars with big time production. Maybe it is because I’ve done more research this year but I honestly feel like this is the deepest class that I’ve seen since I’ve been doing dynasty (4th year now). 2014 was tremendous as far as WRs go but I don’t believe the 4th round had as much to offer as 2017 does. This round is WR heavy. I have a reputation as a hoarder of WRs and love looking for diamonds in the rough at the position so that is no surprise to those that play dynasty with me. Read on to see what I think!
Taylor is an intriguing case of big time production at odds with his lack of size and athleticism. Taylor led the FBS in receiving yards, ahead of his much higher rated teammate Carlos Henderson. He was also second in receptions. His line of 136-1803-12 is eye popping. He rarely faced top teams but was at least respectable when he did. 4-68-1 against Oklahoma. 8-80-0 against Auburn. Both of those games came as a sophomore, mind you. 10-149-1 against Arkansas State in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl. 8-78-0 against Arkansas. Lastly, in their final game for Louisiana Tech it was Taylor who shined in the Armed Forces Bowl with the best performance of his college career, putting up a line of 12-233-2 against Navy in a game his team won as time expired. If Taylor could have simply put up respectable numbers at the combine it would have been so much easier to like him. Instead you get a guy that is tiny for the NFL at 5’8” 181 lbs and also very slow at 4.63. For what it’s worth Taylor also has tiny hands for a receiver at 8 and a quarter inches. According to mockdraftable.com that puts him in the 2nd percentile. If you recall from 2016, there was plenty of skepticism over Tajae Sharpe’s hand size and he comes in at 8 and three quarters inches. I love Taylor’s college production and I think he can be a decent slot receiver in the NFL but his ceiling is very much capped by his size and athleticism. He will have opportunity right away with the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan will get the most out of him, but to take him earlier than the 4th round would be quite a risk.
Dede was electric on the field. His 80-1524-17 line at Oklahoma is absurd. For comparison, Joe Mixon’s 37 recs and 538 rec yards were second most on the team. He also has big play speed with a 4.44 in the 40. How in the world did a guy with numbers like that fall so far? A couple domestic violence incidents were the main factor. His extremely slender frame also played a part. At 6’0” he is 4 inches taller than Taylor above and (spoiler!) Ryan Switzer below but weighs just 178 lbs. His numbers outside of the 40 yard dash were mostly poor. He is also among the older rookies and turns 24 in November. For dynasty purposes, landing with the Jags was less than ideal. I do believe Allen Robinson is firmly locked in as the WR1 while Hurns and Lee will battle for the WR2 & 3 roles. It’s hard to see Westbrook making a big impact in year one unless you think he is a phenomenal talent. In which case he should be able to pass Hurns and Lee and you should take him somewhere in the 3rd. Westbrook may have the highest ceiling of any player in my 4th round but he requires patience and certainly comes with concerns.
Ardarius is one of those guys I look at and say “Wow, do I really have him so low?”. Ardarius was pretty productive for the Crimson Tide after you adjust for the low passing numbers. He maxed out at 54-864-8 in college, but of course Alabama runs as much as they can. He clocks in for the 40 at 4.49 which is very nice with his 5’11” 204 lbs size. He was drafted 79th overall which is much higher than some of the players elsewhere in my 4th round. He has opportunity to make an impact right away but...it’s with the Jets. The Jets are vying with the Rams for worst passing situation in the league. With the Rams signing an offensive head coach, I’d probably put the Jets at the bottom. The Jets finished 27th in pass yards and 28th in pass TDs last year. I don’t see that number improving. I’m definitely in favor of them getting some help for the pass game but their offensive outlook is so bleak that I intend to let someone else take Stewart this year and then perhaps buy him at a rather low price late in 2017 or 2018 if he shows talent or they get a better situation on offense.
Gallman was a 3 year starter for one of the premier college teams and landed with a team where he could end up starting at some point this year. I won’t be surprised if he gets taken in the late 2nd of some rookie drafts. However, looking a little deeper shows a player that doesn’t really have much to offer. Despite starting for the national champs, he numbers were not great outside of 17 touchdowns. His 4.9 YPC was well below average for an NFL prospect and also dropped off from his Sophomore year which you never like to see. When Clemson needed him most, he pretty much never stepped up. 9 carries for 34 yards when the Tigers were nearly upset by Troy. 18 for 36 in the lone loss of the season to Pittsburgh (although he did score 3 touchdowns). Lastly 18 carries for 46 yards against Alabama. Of course Alabama shut down plenty of talented running backs so make of that what you will. At the combine he did not improve his draft stock either. Gallman ran a 4.60 and finished in the bottom 50% in every drill except the bench press and broad jump. By drafting Gallman the Giants seem to have put value on Gallman playing against some of the toughest competition. If you draft Gallman it will be on the hope he starts some games this year and I’d rather look for someone with more talent but less opportunity.
Now into the 4th round you can probably guess what I like about Mack Hollins. He has the perfect size speed combo at 6’4” with a 4.53 in the 40. That led to a career yards per catch of 20.6. However he fell due to a broken collarbone in 2016 as well as an injury at the combine. Even before the broken collarbone he was not having a great senior season. He definitely needs to become more refined as a receiver as well, having maxed out at 35 catches in a year at North Carolina. He was a deep threat specialist and it remains to be seen if he can become anything more in the NFL. He also joins a very crowded receiver corps with Alshon, Jmatt and Torrey Smith at the top. I have to think he can at least pass DGB and Agholor for #4 in 2017.
Drafted in the early 3rd, 69th overall (nice), Kupp is a very divisive player in the dynasty community. As you can see, I am on the low end with him. He was incredibly productive all 4 years of college but never improved a whole lot from his freshman year. He is seen as a polished route runner. In 2016 he was 23 years old and dominating FCS competition. I was skeptical then and after a very poor combine and poor landing spot with the Rams, I am pretty much all out on Kupp. If he does fall to the late 3rd or early 4th, he would be a nice pick because of draft investment, but that is the only thing I like about him.
I’ve seen some growing Jamaal Williams hype lately and it’s not entirely undeserved. Williams was very productive in college while playing against decent competition at BYU. He might have been drafted earlier if not for a dismal combine where he excelled in the broad jump (123”) but was awful pretty much everywhere else. At 6’0” his 212 lbs is a rather slender frame for RB. If you’ve read my earlier round articles you already know I think he just doesn’t stack up to rookie teammate Aaron Jones. Of course, they both also have to beat out Ty Montgomery who I really like as well!
How could I have Watson so low? Especially compared to Mahomes and Kizer who are less likely to start right away. The answer is simple - I just don’t think Watson will be very good in the NFL. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Quarterback is for me easily the hardest position to project. One of the most damning statistics comes from the great @AllbrightNFL's QB spreadsheet. Ben ranks QBs and has a pretty good track record doing so. One of his main attributes is QB ball velocity. 55 MPH is his threshold for a draftable QB. Brad Kaaya and Nathan Peterman were off the list at 53 MPH. Deshaun Watson was charted at a paltry 49 MPH. He has data going back to 2008. The most successful QBs at 50 and under are Tyrod Taylor (50 MPH) and Mike Glennon (49 MPH). Tyrod is of course heavily aided by his mobility. Deshaun will move around but he will not be nearly the running QB that Tyrod was. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. For 2QB leagues he would probably vault to the late 2nd round by virtue of being a likely starter, but in 1QB leagues where starting QBs are not a scarce commodity I will gladly pass. I’d be totally okay whiffing on Watson but I’ll let someone else take that chance.
Conner is another one of my favorites that I won’t be drafting, but am excited to see his career play out. At 6’1” 233 lbs, Conner dominated the ACC as a true sophomore in 2014. Then as I’m sure you know by now, he was diagnosed with cancer in 2015. The fact that he was even able to return to the team is awesome, but to step in and put up big numbers? It’s an absolutely incredible story. The highlight would undoubtedly have to be his 187 yard 2 TD performance in a victory against eventual champion Clemson. He did start off the season pretty slowly and that’s understandable. When, if ever was he truly back to 100%? It’s hard to say. All we know for certain are the numbers we have. He continued to be a bruiser and scored 20 touchdowns but is very slow at 4.65. His bench press numbers were fine but not great. The biggest hindrance to his value is surely the fact that he got drafted by the Steelers. Le’veon Bell has had some injuries and has even been suspended but he is one of the very best in the game. That coupled with his below average athleticism has me staying away. It’s very possible he has a lot of room for growth still but I’d rather find out while he is on someone else’s team.
Much like Westbrook, Malone is a guy I would have liked a lot more if he either went a round or two earlier in the draft or at least went to a team with a clearer path to targets. As it stands, he is firmly behind AJ Green and John Ross and will battle Brandon Lafell and Tyler Boyd for any sort of relevancy in 2017. Most likely he will have a very quiet rookie season. That said….this guy really checks off a lot of the boxes I look for in my prospects. For starters he is a speed demon and ran a 4.40. He also has excellent size to match at 6’3” and 208 lbs. His 50-972-11 line led Tennessee in all three categories and even had a very respectable 5 for 61 against Alabama. He had a 5-120-1 line against Nebraska in the Vols bowl game. Lastly he is just 21 years old. I struggle to understand why he fell to 128th overall in the draft. Digging a little deeper, Pro Football Focus really made him out to be a raw receiver and questioned his effort. He reminds me a lot of Chris Conley. A great guy to have on the bottom of your roster with potential to break out down the line if things work out. (I’m still rostering Conley in a couple leagues)
That brings us to Ryan Switzer who is in the same vein as Trent Taylor. In fact at 5’8” 181 lbs they are identical size and right next to each other in the 2017 SPARQ rankings. In Switzer’s favor he was drafted more than a full round earlier and played for UNC in a power-5 conference where he led the team in catches and yards with a 96-1112-6 line. He’s also a little younger and does have the slight edge in SPARQ, notably coming in faster at 4.51. Where Switzer falters is his stats. He only had one year of elite numbers to Taylor’s two (with a strong 3rd season as well). Switzer definitely faced top level competition more often but Taylor’s numbers are just so much better and as I pointed out, Taylor was at least decent against the better opponents. Perhaps more importantly, there is no immediate role for Switzer to step into. While Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are nothing special, I don’t see Switzer moving ahead of them in year one. Long term there is definitely opportunity, but it’s no guarantee he will secure one of those roles.
Yancey is one of my favorite under the radar players. He is 6’2” 220 lbs so he has great size and he was very productive, leading the big ten in yards per catch in 2016 with a line of 49-951-10 at Purdue. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and also crushed the bench press. He flew under the radar mostly thanks to playing for an awful Purdue team that went 3-9 and while they did throw for a lot they were pretty bad at it outside of Yancey. He wasn’t drafted until the late 5th but I still expected his landing spot to catch more attention than it did. I suppose with Jordy, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb as the clear trio at the top, a likely insignificant role in 2017 for a late draft pick isn’t worth much more than a tiny blip. I still think Yancey is intriguing. Jordy is very much on the old side for a receiver and Randall Cobb could be a cut after 2017. Cobb has one of the biggest contracts for a receiver and hasn’t come close to meeting his pay. Another season that Cobb toils around 7-800 yards and he would be a cap casualty. The long-term path to targets is not nearly as bad as many seem to believe. Yancey is definitely a guy I see myself grabbing in the late 4th, though he might end up being a regretted cut when my leagues downsize at the end of the preseason.
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That wraps up my 4 round rookie draft rankings! Thanks to all who took the time to read through them. There are still a handful of players that are worth talking about beyond these 48, so I will likely be posting another article or two looking at some additional prospects to either consider drafting or grabbing on the waiver afterwards. As we know in dynasty - there is never an end to the adjusting of the bottom of your roster. If you aren’t continually on the prowl for an improvement on the worst player on your roster, you’ve lost!
Sources for all 4 rounds:
www.pro-football-reference.com / www.sports-reference.com/cfb - I seriously can’t imagine looking up statistics without these two tremendous sites.
www.playerprofiler.com - Mostly my go-to source for college dominator ratings, they also provide an excellent snapshot of athleticism for prospects as well as plenty of in-depth stats for NFL players.
https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ - SPARQ scores. Use these over xSPARQ on player profiler as they are the actual SPARQ rankings!
www.mockdraftable.com - I used to avoid this site but at some point they updated to a much nicer looking simplistic design. Detailed spider charts on size and athleticism for all combine players and plenty of non-combine pro days as well!
37.) WR Trent Taylor, San Francisco 49ers
Taylor is an intriguing case of big time production at odds with his lack of size and athleticism. Taylor led the FBS in receiving yards, ahead of his much higher rated teammate Carlos Henderson. He was also second in receptions. His line of 136-1803-12 is eye popping. He rarely faced top teams but was at least respectable when he did. 4-68-1 against Oklahoma. 8-80-0 against Auburn. Both of those games came as a sophomore, mind you. 10-149-1 against Arkansas State in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl. 8-78-0 against Arkansas. Lastly, in their final game for Louisiana Tech it was Taylor who shined in the Armed Forces Bowl with the best performance of his college career, putting up a line of 12-233-2 against Navy in a game his team won as time expired. If Taylor could have simply put up respectable numbers at the combine it would have been so much easier to like him. Instead you get a guy that is tiny for the NFL at 5’8” 181 lbs and also very slow at 4.63. For what it’s worth Taylor also has tiny hands for a receiver at 8 and a quarter inches. According to mockdraftable.com that puts him in the 2nd percentile. If you recall from 2016, there was plenty of skepticism over Tajae Sharpe’s hand size and he comes in at 8 and three quarters inches. I love Taylor’s college production and I think he can be a decent slot receiver in the NFL but his ceiling is very much capped by his size and athleticism. He will have opportunity right away with the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan will get the most out of him, but to take him earlier than the 4th round would be quite a risk.
38.) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars
Dede was electric on the field. His 80-1524-17 line at Oklahoma is absurd. For comparison, Joe Mixon’s 37 recs and 538 rec yards were second most on the team. He also has big play speed with a 4.44 in the 40. How in the world did a guy with numbers like that fall so far? A couple domestic violence incidents were the main factor. His extremely slender frame also played a part. At 6’0” he is 4 inches taller than Taylor above and (spoiler!) Ryan Switzer below but weighs just 178 lbs. His numbers outside of the 40 yard dash were mostly poor. He is also among the older rookies and turns 24 in November. For dynasty purposes, landing with the Jags was less than ideal. I do believe Allen Robinson is firmly locked in as the WR1 while Hurns and Lee will battle for the WR2 & 3 roles. It’s hard to see Westbrook making a big impact in year one unless you think he is a phenomenal talent. In which case he should be able to pass Hurns and Lee and you should take him somewhere in the 3rd. Westbrook may have the highest ceiling of any player in my 4th round but he requires patience and certainly comes with concerns.
39.) WR Ardarius Stewart, New York Jets
Ardarius is one of those guys I look at and say “Wow, do I really have him so low?”. Ardarius was pretty productive for the Crimson Tide after you adjust for the low passing numbers. He maxed out at 54-864-8 in college, but of course Alabama runs as much as they can. He clocks in for the 40 at 4.49 which is very nice with his 5’11” 204 lbs size. He was drafted 79th overall which is much higher than some of the players elsewhere in my 4th round. He has opportunity to make an impact right away but...it’s with the Jets. The Jets are vying with the Rams for worst passing situation in the league. With the Rams signing an offensive head coach, I’d probably put the Jets at the bottom. The Jets finished 27th in pass yards and 28th in pass TDs last year. I don’t see that number improving. I’m definitely in favor of them getting some help for the pass game but their offensive outlook is so bleak that I intend to let someone else take Stewart this year and then perhaps buy him at a rather low price late in 2017 or 2018 if he shows talent or they get a better situation on offense.
40.) RB Wayne Gallman, New York Giants
Gallman was a 3 year starter for one of the premier college teams and landed with a team where he could end up starting at some point this year. I won’t be surprised if he gets taken in the late 2nd of some rookie drafts. However, looking a little deeper shows a player that doesn’t really have much to offer. Despite starting for the national champs, he numbers were not great outside of 17 touchdowns. His 4.9 YPC was well below average for an NFL prospect and also dropped off from his Sophomore year which you never like to see. When Clemson needed him most, he pretty much never stepped up. 9 carries for 34 yards when the Tigers were nearly upset by Troy. 18 for 36 in the lone loss of the season to Pittsburgh (although he did score 3 touchdowns). Lastly 18 carries for 46 yards against Alabama. Of course Alabama shut down plenty of talented running backs so make of that what you will. At the combine he did not improve his draft stock either. Gallman ran a 4.60 and finished in the bottom 50% in every drill except the bench press and broad jump. By drafting Gallman the Giants seem to have put value on Gallman playing against some of the toughest competition. If you draft Gallman it will be on the hope he starts some games this year and I’d rather look for someone with more talent but less opportunity.
41.) WR Mack Hollins, Philadelphia Eagles
Now into the 4th round you can probably guess what I like about Mack Hollins. He has the perfect size speed combo at 6’4” with a 4.53 in the 40. That led to a career yards per catch of 20.6. However he fell due to a broken collarbone in 2016 as well as an injury at the combine. Even before the broken collarbone he was not having a great senior season. He definitely needs to become more refined as a receiver as well, having maxed out at 35 catches in a year at North Carolina. He was a deep threat specialist and it remains to be seen if he can become anything more in the NFL. He also joins a very crowded receiver corps with Alshon, Jmatt and Torrey Smith at the top. I have to think he can at least pass DGB and Agholor for #4 in 2017.
42.) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Drafted in the early 3rd, 69th overall (nice), Kupp is a very divisive player in the dynasty community. As you can see, I am on the low end with him. He was incredibly productive all 4 years of college but never improved a whole lot from his freshman year. He is seen as a polished route runner. In 2016 he was 23 years old and dominating FCS competition. I was skeptical then and after a very poor combine and poor landing spot with the Rams, I am pretty much all out on Kupp. If he does fall to the late 3rd or early 4th, he would be a nice pick because of draft investment, but that is the only thing I like about him.
43.) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
I’ve seen some growing Jamaal Williams hype lately and it’s not entirely undeserved. Williams was very productive in college while playing against decent competition at BYU. He might have been drafted earlier if not for a dismal combine where he excelled in the broad jump (123”) but was awful pretty much everywhere else. At 6’0” his 212 lbs is a rather slender frame for RB. If you’ve read my earlier round articles you already know I think he just doesn’t stack up to rookie teammate Aaron Jones. Of course, they both also have to beat out Ty Montgomery who I really like as well!
44.) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
How could I have Watson so low? Especially compared to Mahomes and Kizer who are less likely to start right away. The answer is simple - I just don’t think Watson will be very good in the NFL. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Quarterback is for me easily the hardest position to project. One of the most damning statistics comes from the great @AllbrightNFL's QB spreadsheet. Ben ranks QBs and has a pretty good track record doing so. One of his main attributes is QB ball velocity. 55 MPH is his threshold for a draftable QB. Brad Kaaya and Nathan Peterman were off the list at 53 MPH. Deshaun Watson was charted at a paltry 49 MPH. He has data going back to 2008. The most successful QBs at 50 and under are Tyrod Taylor (50 MPH) and Mike Glennon (49 MPH). Tyrod is of course heavily aided by his mobility. Deshaun will move around but he will not be nearly the running QB that Tyrod was. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. For 2QB leagues he would probably vault to the late 2nd round by virtue of being a likely starter, but in 1QB leagues where starting QBs are not a scarce commodity I will gladly pass. I’d be totally okay whiffing on Watson but I’ll let someone else take that chance.
45.) RB James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
Conner is another one of my favorites that I won’t be drafting, but am excited to see his career play out. At 6’1” 233 lbs, Conner dominated the ACC as a true sophomore in 2014. Then as I’m sure you know by now, he was diagnosed with cancer in 2015. The fact that he was even able to return to the team is awesome, but to step in and put up big numbers? It’s an absolutely incredible story. The highlight would undoubtedly have to be his 187 yard 2 TD performance in a victory against eventual champion Clemson. He did start off the season pretty slowly and that’s understandable. When, if ever was he truly back to 100%? It’s hard to say. All we know for certain are the numbers we have. He continued to be a bruiser and scored 20 touchdowns but is very slow at 4.65. His bench press numbers were fine but not great. The biggest hindrance to his value is surely the fact that he got drafted by the Steelers. Le’veon Bell has had some injuries and has even been suspended but he is one of the very best in the game. That coupled with his below average athleticism has me staying away. It’s very possible he has a lot of room for growth still but I’d rather find out while he is on someone else’s team.
46.) WR Josh Malone, Cincinnati Bengals
Much like Westbrook, Malone is a guy I would have liked a lot more if he either went a round or two earlier in the draft or at least went to a team with a clearer path to targets. As it stands, he is firmly behind AJ Green and John Ross and will battle Brandon Lafell and Tyler Boyd for any sort of relevancy in 2017. Most likely he will have a very quiet rookie season. That said….this guy really checks off a lot of the boxes I look for in my prospects. For starters he is a speed demon and ran a 4.40. He also has excellent size to match at 6’3” and 208 lbs. His 50-972-11 line led Tennessee in all three categories and even had a very respectable 5 for 61 against Alabama. He had a 5-120-1 line against Nebraska in the Vols bowl game. Lastly he is just 21 years old. I struggle to understand why he fell to 128th overall in the draft. Digging a little deeper, Pro Football Focus really made him out to be a raw receiver and questioned his effort. He reminds me a lot of Chris Conley. A great guy to have on the bottom of your roster with potential to break out down the line if things work out. (I’m still rostering Conley in a couple leagues)
47.) WR Ryan Switzer, Dallas Cowboys
That brings us to Ryan Switzer who is in the same vein as Trent Taylor. In fact at 5’8” 181 lbs they are identical size and right next to each other in the 2017 SPARQ rankings. In Switzer’s favor he was drafted more than a full round earlier and played for UNC in a power-5 conference where he led the team in catches and yards with a 96-1112-6 line. He’s also a little younger and does have the slight edge in SPARQ, notably coming in faster at 4.51. Where Switzer falters is his stats. He only had one year of elite numbers to Taylor’s two (with a strong 3rd season as well). Switzer definitely faced top level competition more often but Taylor’s numbers are just so much better and as I pointed out, Taylor was at least decent against the better opponents. Perhaps more importantly, there is no immediate role for Switzer to step into. While Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are nothing special, I don’t see Switzer moving ahead of them in year one. Long term there is definitely opportunity, but it’s no guarantee he will secure one of those roles.
48.) WR De’Angelo Yancey, Green Bay Packers
Yancey is one of my favorite under the radar players. He is 6’2” 220 lbs so he has great size and he was very productive, leading the big ten in yards per catch in 2016 with a line of 49-951-10 at Purdue. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and also crushed the bench press. He flew under the radar mostly thanks to playing for an awful Purdue team that went 3-9 and while they did throw for a lot they were pretty bad at it outside of Yancey. He wasn’t drafted until the late 5th but I still expected his landing spot to catch more attention than it did. I suppose with Jordy, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb as the clear trio at the top, a likely insignificant role in 2017 for a late draft pick isn’t worth much more than a tiny blip. I still think Yancey is intriguing. Jordy is very much on the old side for a receiver and Randall Cobb could be a cut after 2017. Cobb has one of the biggest contracts for a receiver and hasn’t come close to meeting his pay. Another season that Cobb toils around 7-800 yards and he would be a cap casualty. The long-term path to targets is not nearly as bad as many seem to believe. Yancey is definitely a guy I see myself grabbing in the late 4th, though he might end up being a regretted cut when my leagues downsize at the end of the preseason.
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That wraps up my 4 round rookie draft rankings! Thanks to all who took the time to read through them. There are still a handful of players that are worth talking about beyond these 48, so I will likely be posting another article or two looking at some additional prospects to either consider drafting or grabbing on the waiver afterwards. As we know in dynasty - there is never an end to the adjusting of the bottom of your roster. If you aren’t continually on the prowl for an improvement on the worst player on your roster, you’ve lost!
Sources for all 4 rounds:
www.pro-football-reference.com / www.sports-reference.com/cfb - I seriously can’t imagine looking up statistics without these two tremendous sites.
www.playerprofiler.com - Mostly my go-to source for college dominator ratings, they also provide an excellent snapshot of athleticism for prospects as well as plenty of in-depth stats for NFL players.
https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ - SPARQ scores. Use these over xSPARQ on player profiler as they are the actual SPARQ rankings!
www.mockdraftable.com - I used to avoid this site but at some point they updated to a much nicer looking simplistic design. Detailed spider charts on size and athleticism for all combine players and plenty of non-combine pro days as well!
May 31, 2017
Who is that Fantasy Player? It's Jay Ajayi!
Note from Zach: I think seeing me doing some writing got Bobby itching to do some of his own! I'm thrilled to have him submit a piece of his own for this blog and hopefully there will be more to come in the future.
It’s Pika...damnit. It’s Jay Ajayi. You’ll need to excuse my dated pop culture references, but as many of you know I’ve been out of the writing game for a bit. It’s time to shake off the rust with a look at the pros and cons of Jay Ajayi as a dynasty player.
I personally own Jay Ajayi in at least one league. I acquired him on the cheap when Arian Foster was going to be “the guy” for the Dolphins. However, at the time I had no idea just how good of a move it would turn out to be.
What really has me considering Ajayi’s value is the fact that I was recently offered a trade of Devante Parker, Tevin Coleman, and Terrance West for Ajayi alone. I know what most of you are you thinking. Are you as crazy as people who think the earth is flat? You must be to not take that deal!
Honestly, I wish I was a flat earth truther. It might be easier than being an Ajayi truther. Just yesterday Mike Randle of Last Word on Pro Football came out with this article detailing while you should avoid drafting Ajayi in all formats.
Mike makes a lot of great points about the pros and cons of Ajayi and I’m going to list them below for those you who are more of the TLDR type of reader.
The article compares Ajayi’s season last year to what Peyton Hillis did in 2010 before falling off. I’ve had some “one year wonder” concerns of my own especially since the Dolphins did take Kenyan Drake in the third round of the 2016 draft. I can understand why someone may want to cash out on him like they should have done with Jeremy Langford prior to last season.
However, if you are in a dynasty league I don’t think it’s quite time to cash out yet. Let's try to remember that this is a guy who saw his draft stock fall only due to injury concerns. He was the RB 11 in half ppr leagues last season and is only 24.
It's also important to keep in mind that Ajayi put up those points while running behind one of the worst o-lines in the league. The o-line should only improve as long as it can stay healthy.They can't possibly get worse right? Even if they don't improve, he's shown an elite ability to create running room for himself.
I also don’t buy the argument that his 200+ yard games came against bad defenses or defenses who were checked out. These are guys who are professionals for a reason. Are we seriously supposed to think because they were eliminated from playoff contention that they suddenly thought “Know what? Let’s let him run all over us because we are now treadmills and no longer highly paid professional football players whose job it is to tackle him”.
Finally, Adam Gase who is heralded as “that guy who once made Jay Cutler look good” says he wants to give Ajayi even more carries! This is the same Adam Gase who made Jeremy Langford look like he could play football! But wait! Won’t Ajayi’s knee spontaneously explode or at least have a baby alien rip it from the inside out from all the extra carries!? That didn’t happen last year and there’s no reason to believe it’s more likely to happen this year.
Normally, I’m someone who is as risk averse as Chucky from Rugrats. However, Ajayi has the potential to be a league winner for a few years on a team willing to risk it. As a league mate of mine often says, “You have to risk it for the biscuit”.
*Pictured above-me when presented with anything that is risky*
Until next time,
Rek - @RekedFantasy on Twitter
It’s Pika...damnit. It’s Jay Ajayi. You’ll need to excuse my dated pop culture references, but as many of you know I’ve been out of the writing game for a bit. It’s time to shake off the rust with a look at the pros and cons of Jay Ajayi as a dynasty player.
I personally own Jay Ajayi in at least one league. I acquired him on the cheap when Arian Foster was going to be “the guy” for the Dolphins. However, at the time I had no idea just how good of a move it would turn out to be.
What really has me considering Ajayi’s value is the fact that I was recently offered a trade of Devante Parker, Tevin Coleman, and Terrance West for Ajayi alone. I know what most of you are you thinking. Are you as crazy as people who think the earth is flat? You must be to not take that deal!
Honestly, I wish I was a flat earth truther. It might be easier than being an Ajayi truther. Just yesterday Mike Randle of Last Word on Pro Football came out with this article detailing while you should avoid drafting Ajayi in all formats.
Mike makes a lot of great points about the pros and cons of Ajayi and I’m going to list them below for those you who are more of the TLDR type of reader.
Pros:
- Started only 12 games but finished with 1,272 yards
- Ranked ninth among all rbs with 260 carries
- His 484 yards after contact were third among NFL RBS
- Multiple 200 yard games
- Great game against the Jets tough run defense
Cons:
- In first five games of the season Ajayi only averaged 3.8 yards per carry
- Miami’s O-line was almost never fully healthy last season (and Mike didn’t point this out but they were ranked 30th by PFF)
- Two of his 200 yard games came against the Bills who were not nearly as good a defense last year as they have been in years past
- Tore ACL in 2011, hamstring injury in 2015 preseason, and rib injury in 2015 that caused him to miss a good portion of the season
The article compares Ajayi’s season last year to what Peyton Hillis did in 2010 before falling off. I’ve had some “one year wonder” concerns of my own especially since the Dolphins did take Kenyan Drake in the third round of the 2016 draft. I can understand why someone may want to cash out on him like they should have done with Jeremy Langford prior to last season.
However, if you are in a dynasty league I don’t think it’s quite time to cash out yet. Let's try to remember that this is a guy who saw his draft stock fall only due to injury concerns. He was the RB 11 in half ppr leagues last season and is only 24.
It's also important to keep in mind that Ajayi put up those points while running behind one of the worst o-lines in the league. The o-line should only improve as long as it can stay healthy.They can't possibly get worse right? Even if they don't improve, he's shown an elite ability to create running room for himself.
I also don’t buy the argument that his 200+ yard games came against bad defenses or defenses who were checked out. These are guys who are professionals for a reason. Are we seriously supposed to think because they were eliminated from playoff contention that they suddenly thought “Know what? Let’s let him run all over us because we are now treadmills and no longer highly paid professional football players whose job it is to tackle him”.
Finally, Adam Gase who is heralded as “that guy who once made Jay Cutler look good” says he wants to give Ajayi even more carries! This is the same Adam Gase who made Jeremy Langford look like he could play football! But wait! Won’t Ajayi’s knee spontaneously explode or at least have a baby alien rip it from the inside out from all the extra carries!? That didn’t happen last year and there’s no reason to believe it’s more likely to happen this year.
Normally, I’m someone who is as risk averse as Chucky from Rugrats. However, Ajayi has the potential to be a league winner for a few years on a team willing to risk it. As a league mate of mine often says, “You have to risk it for the biscuit”.
*Pictured above-me when presented with anything that is risky*
Until next time,
Rek - @RekedFantasy on Twitter
May 24, 2017
Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 3rd Round
I think a few sleeper prospects may have crept into my 2nd round, the ones that I really like. The third round is a mix of guys I am lower than most on vs some more sleepers that I would love to get in this round. There is upside all the way through the third round but a lot of it comes with a lack of clear immediate opportunity or other issues (level of competition, athleticism and age). Identify a couple guys in this round that fit your preference in prospects and target them in the draft!
25.) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is the QB of the future for the Chiefs. Key word there is ‘future’ as Mahomes is the most likely rookie to see zero playing time this year. To draft Mahomes would be a luxury, so you really have to be sold on his talent. He definitely has that. He is a gunslinger with a big time arm. His 60 MPH ball velocity is about as fast as it gets and he used that arm to lead the FBS in passing yards in 2016 and put up 77 pass TDs over the past two seasons. He has drawn comparisons to hall of fame gunslinger Brett Favre, so it’s no surprise offensive guru Andy Reid liked him. Reid was with the Packers for the early days of Favre’s career and helped develop him. I mentioned it earlier with Kareem Hunt but Reid is great at working with a player’s style rather than forcing them into his scheme. The Chiefs may have a conservative pass attack with Alex Smith, but that will absolutely change for the Mahomes era. The Chiefs already have a big touchdown threat in Travis Kelce and elite speed with Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley so this offense is ready for Mahomes, and they will likely add more in the future. Mahomes is set up to succeed. He just requires patience from a dynasty owner.26.) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are without a doubt going to be a pass first team going forward. I don’t think any RB on the team will be particularly successful in 2017. However I also see the Bucs as one of the teams with wide open opportunity at the position. Doug Martin is kind of an unknown for 2017, Charles Sims isn’t very good, Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers are just guys. McNichols could lead this team in touches as a rookie. He has nice speed (4.49) and good combine numbers across the board. He was highly productive in two years as a starter with Boise State and finished 2016 with the second most touchdowns from scrimmage (27). He also caught 103 passes in college so he can kind of do it all. What’s not to like? He was only a 5th rounder much like Aaron Jones in the round 2 article, but he didn’t have injury issues keeping him down. McNichols 5.4 YPC was not great, especially outside of the power-5. When facing tougher competition he didn’t step up. This was most clear in his final game as a collegiate player with a very poor performance against Baylor in the Cactus Bowl (70 YFS, 2.4 YPC). He has a great opportunity but he will need to prove he can handle the NFL level.27.) WR Amara Darboh, Seattle Seahawks
You may see Darboh and roll your eyes at another Seahawk WR pick. Dating back to 2013 here are the receivers the Seahawks have drafted: Chris Harper, ‘13 123rd overall & never caught a pass in the NFL. Paul Richardson, ‘14 45th overall perhaps has some talent but landed on IR in both of his first two seasons and didn’t look the same in 2016. He was taken ahead of Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry in the 2nd round alone. Kevin Norwood ‘14 123rd overall caught 9 passes and only lasted one year with Seahawks. Tyler Lockett, ‘15 69th overall. A fine player but thus far has not proven to be anything special and now recovering from a broken leg. Kenny Lawler, ‘16 243rd overall. Okay so this was at the end of the draft so we can forgive the fact that he has never been on the active roster. Alright that was your dynasty bonus, a review of recent Seahawks WR draftees. 4 busts and one Tyler Lockett who is definitely not a success but not a failure yet either. So that brings us to Darboh, taken 106th overall at the end of the 3rd round. I will now make a modest case for why Darboh has a better chance to succeed. Darboh has a great size/speed combination at 6’2”, 214lbs and 4.45 in the 40. He is pretty highly ranked in SPARQ score. Darboh also had a productive year for Michigan, leading the team in recs, rec yards and rec TDs. Although being the poor offense that Michigan was, his stat line of 57-862-7 just isn’t that sexy. What separates him from the recent WRs the Seahawks have drafted? He is the first receiver they’ve taken that has the whole package of size, athleticism and production. His college numbers being what they were is the main reason I think he fell as far as he did (in addition to being older at 23 years old). I also think he fits a big need for the Seahawks and can replace the very bad Jermaine Kearse opposite Doug Baldwin on the outside. The Seahawks lack of success with WRs concerns me but they have a good QB and I happen to like this player so I’ll be somewhat optimistic with Darboh.28.) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
It’s not often you get a 6’4”, 4.50 highly productive receiver that flies under the radar. Golladay is quickly gaining steam in the dynasty community but he is still not a top draft pick. I like his fit with the Lions where Golden Tate is very reliable but not a superstar and Marvin Jones had mixed results in year one. Stafford has transitioned into a less aggressive more consistent QB under OC Jim Bob Cooter but the Lions would definitely like someone who can at least fill a little bit of the void Calvin Johnson left at WR1. I think it is important to note that Golladay is one of the oldest rookies as he turns 24 in early November. He also faced almost no top competition and did not fare well when he did (Ohio State and Boise State in 2015). He likely will need a period of adjustment which is not great for a guy that is already older.29.) TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams
Everett is an absolute beast, right up there athletically with the tight ends that are in my 1st round. He also has the college production to match, putting up a 49-714-4 line for a team that did not throw a whole lot. He just happened to do it at a smaller school and also fell to the Rams where I am not at all confident in Jared Goff. Everett is also undersized at 6’3” 239lbs and his 4.62 is good but nothing compared to Evan Engram! The fact remains that Everett is a very good prospect and despite landing with a less than ideal situation he’s worth taking at the beginning of the third. Expect a quiet year one with a chance for big things going forward.30.) WR Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams
6’3”, fairly athletic and productive against tough competition, I am surprised Reynolds fell as far as he did in the draft (117th overall). It seems the biggest concern was his slender frame at just 194 lbs. He was an excellent deep threat with a line of 61-1039-12, good for 17 yards per catch. He scored a touchdown in all but two games in 2016 and saved his best for last when he put up a 12-154-2 line in the Texas Bowl against Kansas State. After falling in the draft, he also landed in one of my least favorite situations with the Rams. Should I have a pick in the middle of the 3rd, I’ll be hoping Sean McVay can improve that offense quickly because Reynolds is my favorite WR the Rams have.31.) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Mack is both athletic and productive but fell to the end of the 4th round in the NFL draft. This was in part due to the fact that he did not lead his team in rushing despite 1,187 yards and a 6.8 YPC. His mobile QB stole the show from him! In addition he is a little undersized and didn’t do himself any favors in the bench press. I’m unconvinced he can thrive at the NFL level. He did go to the right spot with the Colts. Odds get higher every year that Gore finally hands over the reigns to someone new. If you are looking for an immediate contributor, I think Mack could be bumped up a little but I imagine they will add someone new next year as well.32.) QB Deshone Kizer, Cleveland Browns
I have a love/hate relationship with Kizer. His numbers fell in 2016 and many feel he could have used another year in college but I can’t fault him for leaving. Notre Dame was a dumpster fire and Brian Kelly is Brian Kelly. (I am neither a Fighting Irish fan nor hater but I do not care for Brian Kelly) Kizer has prototypical size for a QB and solid ball velocity. While his numbers fell off and his 58.7% completion rate in 2016 is not good, he did still have 47 pass TDs to 19 interceptions in his two seasons. He definitely has the potential to start for several years in the NFL but the Browns will need to bring him along slowly.33.) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia Eagles
It is easy to write off Pumphrey as too small (5’8”, 176lbs) but I love that he went to the team that rosters Darren Sproles and can work with one of the all-time great undersized backs. He was also massively productive in college with 2000+ YFS and 17+ touchdowns in three straight years. That is both a positive and a negative as he never missed a game in college, proving he can handle a lot despite his stature. However even appropriately sized players get hurt after so much work. It is definitely concerning to an extent. Also outside of a respectable 4.48 in the 40, he did not impress at the combine. His 5 reps of the bench press (0 percentile) is about what you would expect for Pumphrey but if you look back to Darren Sproles he actually crushed the bench press with an above average 23 reps. It would have been nice to see some surprising strength from Pumphrey. He will certainly be a risk to take in Dynasty. Expect him to mostly sit in 2017 and hopefully learn from watching how Sproles works.34.) WR Chad Williams, Arizona Cardinals
Williams was an FCS star at Grambling State and put up an impressive line of 90-1337-11 as a senior. Obviously the competition was lacking but he did play against Arizona last year. The Wildcats were very bad but Williams had 13 receptions for 152 yards. For a team that was likely outmatched in many ways, that is very promising. It is also perhaps interesting to note that Williams was drafted late in the third round out of a small school much like his new teammate John Brown. While it is nice to see a little history of the Cardinals finding success in small school receivers, I should note these are two very different players. Williams is fast at 4.45 but not THAT fast. Williams enters a situation with an aging QB and no heir apparent which is not great. There is an opening as the top option in the pass game that he will most likely contend for with John Brown. There is upside here for sure.35.) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago Bears
D-II Gronk as I like to call him, Shaheen is MASSIVE at 6’6” 278 lbs and surprisingly agile with respectable times in most of his combine drills. He was a touchdown machine with a line of 57-867-16. The issue is...it came at D-II Ashland University. Given that I put a premium on power-5 conference production over other FBS schools and give far less consideration to even FCS production, you can imagine I am very wary of Shaheen. The Bears clearly didn’t have any concerns, taking him 45th overall. That was right after Gerald Everett and well ahead of the previously mentioned Jonnu Smith. I am certain he will take some time to get used to the extreme change in level of competition. I mean, was anybody even willing to tackle a guy this size in D-II? Shaheen will be one of my favorites to watch his career play out, but for dynasty purposes I expect someone else to grab him first.36.) TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Rounding out the 3rd round we have yet another tight end in this class that I love so much. I may have Kittle 36th overall but he is still very much worth looking into. Kittle is incredibly athletic and is the #1 ranked SPARQ TE for this year. However while he did have decent production after adjusting for the offense, Iowa passed so little in 2016 that Kittle finished with a line of 22-314-3 for the year and 48-737-10 in his college career. Those guys can succeed in the NFL but it's generally not great to put up such small numbers in college, even if it is mostly because of the offense. It should also be noted that he is on the old side and will turn 24 in October. Shanahan did not feature tight ends while in Atlanta but did bring out the best in Owen Daniels and Jordan Reed previously. As a Shanny fan I’m intrigued any time he brings in a new offensive weapon.May 23, 2017
Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 2nd Round
Back at it for the 2nd round! As I told my leaguemates, no secrets will remain. Check out the 1st round article if you want to see the factors I consider. This class is genuinely deep and there are players I like quite a lot into the 30s. Now that we are in the 2nd round I tried to list some more of the negatives when applicable. For the most part, the second round is a mix of guys with both opportunity and talent but missing a check mark or two that separates them from the first round talent.
13.) RB Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins
Perine is a player I am fairly uncomfortable about having up so high. Every year it seems like there is one player taken well outside the top 100 overall players that sneaks into the first round. Perine appears to be that guy this year, Kenneth Dixon was that guy last year. The negatives are easy to list with Perine. He is slow (4.65). His numbers dropped off in pretty much every meaningful way in each of his three collegiate seasons. This was in part due to missing multiple games in 2016 but more so a result of Joe Mixon being better. That still doesn’t account for a declining YPC though. So what are the positives? He did have an amazing freshman year that saw him set the all-time FBS single game rushing record (427 yards). The only other two FBS players to hit 400 yards are LaDainian Tomlinson and Melvin Gordon, so that is pretty sexy company. Perine is a big bruiser at 5’11” and crushed the bench press, so this is a guy that you expect to power through defenders. Despite concerns of being #2 on his college team and a drop off in numbers he was still very productive. It’s hard to hold it against him for playing on the same team with such a talented player as Mixon. The big reason why Perine is this high though is an incredibly easy path to leading his team in carries. The Redskins are a pretty good offense and I like Jay Gruden. The top running backs on the team are Rob Kelley and Matt Jones. The former supplanting the latter in 2016. If Perine is at all talented he should easily slide into the #1 spot and by playing a UDFA rookie last year we know Jay Gruden isn’t afraid to give his rookies significant playing time. There really aren’t any rookies after Perine that have an easy path to 200 carries.
14.) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
I could probably go back and forth between Kamara and Perine several times between now and my rookie drafts in early June. They are very different players and their year one roles will probably be quite different as well. To start with, Kamara was third on his team in carries in each of his college seasons with just 210 total carries at Tennessee. That is kind of a red flag to me. He also never exceeded 1000 yards from scrimmage. With the Saints, he appears to be headed for a third down / pass-catching specialist role. That player can be very valuable with the Sean Payton Saints as we’ve seen with Darren Sproles especially. I still like Mark Ingram quite a bit and Adrian Peterson will be ahead of Kamara as well. Despite not being very fast (4.56) Kamara is a SPARQ favorite. He ranked 4th among all RBs in this draft class for SPARQ score and second among RBs that were drafted. He is an excellent receiver. In addition to his meager 210 carries he caught 74 passes in those two years at Tennessee. I can definitely see a situation where Ingram and AP are both gone after this year and Kamara could end up with the bulk of the carries and 50+ receptions as well.
15.) WR/RB Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers
After taking Christian McCaffrey 8th overall I think it was a big surprise to many to see Samuel taken by the Panthers in the second, 40th overall. Samuel is extremely fast (4.31) and young - he doesn’t turn 21 until August. Do they have enough room for both players? I say...absolutely! Samuel played a lot out of the backfield in college and used his blazing speed to put up 97 carries with 7.9 YPC while adding a 74-865-7 line as a receiver. The YPC was no fluke either. In 172 college carries his career total is 7.5 which is just absurd. The main knock is that he profiles as a gadget player and does not have a clearly defined role. Will he be more Tavon Austin or Tyreek Hill? By putting him 15 I definitely see more of a Tyreek Hill role and I think Ron Rivera & OC Mike Shula have continued to improve on using players to their skill set and not forcing them into a scheme. Cam needs dump off and short yardage options in the worst way and drafting CMC and Samuel with their first two picks gives me great confidence that they have a clear vision for the two players. If anything, I worry about inefficient Kelvin Benjamin and the rest of the WRs now that these two are around.
16.) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver Broncos
Perhaps a surprise to see Henderson above the next player on my list but he is a missed tackle machine! According to Pro Football Focus, he forced 48 missed tackles in 2016, far and away the number one player. This led to an extremely impressive 18.7 yards per catch and 19 touchdowns. Couple that with 4.46 speed and he is super intriguing. The case against him is that he wasn’t drafted until the middle of the third to a team with two already very good to great receivers in place. The Broncos QB situation definitely had enough targets for two players to do well but three seems highly unlikely. DT and Sanders will both be 30 by season’s end. I don’t like to admit it but at least one of them will probably be on the decline pretty soon. The other main gripe is that Henderson was not the top target for his team. That honor goes to Trent Taylor who will be in one of my next two articles (but you’ll have to stay tuned to find out which!) Still, Henderson definitely profiles as the better NFL receiver and well worth taking in the middle of the 2nd.
17.) WR Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
Juju is the youngest fantasy-relevant player in the draft, he doesn’t even turn 21 until late November! He also went to a pass-heavy offense in the 2nd round so there is definitely appeal here and I’ve seen him mocked in the late 1st of rookie drafts. The problem is he enters a pretty deep WR corps, and one that doesn’t like to use its rookies. Coates barely saw any action as a rookie and Martavis had to wait several weeks before getting involved. I actually still like Coates quite a bit still and believe a broken hand is what kept him from a breakout last year. Martavis is a playmaker but inconsistent. He may run into another suspension at some point but I certainly wouldn’t take Juju expecting that to happen. Juju, being as young as he is, seems like a top candidate to see very little action as a rookie. A year of waiting in the wings and he will likely be available for an early second or less this time next year. Beyond the opportunity with the Steelers, he also fell in the draft after a significant dropoff in his junior year. He also isn’t exceptionally athletic nor does he have the size to make up for it. Everything was good, but nothing was great. Really the only place he shines is age-adjusted production and I’m not comfortable putting a TON of weight on that.
18.) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee Titans
The second of two talented receivers for the Titans, I believe both are the starters of the future for the team. Taywan brings a great mix of athleticism (4th best SPARQ score for a rookie receiver) and production. His 1730 yards were the 3rd most behind Trent Taylor and Zay Jones. Those two were both possession receivers without the impressive 17.7 yards per catch that Taylor brings. So what is the issue? The depth chart both in the now and the future should keep Taywan from being a star. In year one I expect Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews to be ahead of Taylor limiting him to perhaps 600-800 yards as a rookie. Long term it's hard when the expectation is he will be overshadowed by Corey Davis. There is certainly a small chance that Taylor ends up the better of the two, but just a small chance is all. The realistic best case is a situation where both put up numbers like Sanders/DT and I could definitely see that.
19.) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston Texans
Foreman is a big bruiser with impressive speed. He stands in at 6’0” 233lbs with 4.50 speed. That puts him on par with the bigger, a tiny bit slower Derrick Henry. Unfortunately Foreman isn’t Henry’s match overall. That’s fine, he is still a good prospect that put up 2000 rush yards as a 20 year old!! There is some worry about Lamar Miller but I don’t think his job is that secure any more. Miller is easily cuttable after 2017. Foreman has a pretty good shot at being the lead back in 2018 and may even usurp Miller sometime this year.
20.) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Hunt is a little slow for my liking at 4.62 but he did have some gaudy numbers in college and the Chiefs traded up in the top 100 to grab him. As a sophomore in 2014 Hunt had 204 carries and an 8.0 YPC which is just insane. If he could have repeated that in 2015 he probably would have declared and gone in the first two rounds. However he fell to a 5.5 YPC which is not great outside of the power-5 and also missed a couple games. Returning for his senior year he finally flashed some pass catching ability with 41 receptions and put up 1878 yards from scrimmage although once again just a 5.6 YPC. He’s a fine player but I just don’t see that much to get excited about. However I do like Andy Reid and if the team is moving up to grab this guy I think they don’t trust Spencer Ware too much.
21.) QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
I always have a tough time ranking QBs. The way the Bears made such an obvious desperation play to move up one spot to 2nd overall screams disaster-in-waiting. Despite that I can’t help but like Trubisky. The major knock on him is that he was just a one year starter but it sure was a nice season. The Bears have already started to bring in some receivers to try and help their QB hopeful of the future. They drafted Adam Shaheen and Tarik Cohen while signing Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright (laugh if you want, but those are not awful pieces!). This is in addition to Cameron Meredith and Kevin White. They may still attack the draft on offense in the coming years much like Tennessee and Tampa have. It was a desperation play by the Bears but if Trubisky is good it doesn't matter how dumb it looked in the moment. I think they may have gotten it right.
22.) TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans
A fourth tight end in the top 24 (and very nearly had a 5th!) seems just crazy, but I love this class and it will give the position the depth it needs. Delanie Walker is 33 this year and while he had a good 2016 it was still a drop off from 2015. They needed a TE for the future and they got it. Jonnu is another very athletic TE with impressive numbers from a smaller school. He wasn’t drafted until the end of the 3rd but definitely landed with a good team. Expect Jonnu to be mostly a zero in 2017, but the hope is that he can be the starter by 2018.
23.) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers
Williams is a speedster and ran a 4.41 at the combine. He took an interesting path to the 49ers. After being stuck in a committee and not being very successful through two games, Williams left the Utes, returning after injuries guaranteed him a featured role. Williams put up massive numbers after returning, highlighted by 332 yards against UCLA and 222 in the bowl game against Indiana. Coupled with the speed he showed at the combine, he became a guy that Shanahan wanted and convinced GM John Lynch to take. There is some uncertainty here and Carlos Hyde is still around but Shanahan already successfully used two running backs in Atlanta so don’t be surprised if Williams has a year 1 impact.
24.) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones is one of my favorite under the radar prospects. He ranks as the #1 drafted RB in SPARQ score thanks to excellent 3-cone, vertical jump and broad jump numbers. Better yet, he has the the college production to back it up. Jones had 2006 yards from scrimmage with 20 touchdowns as a senior. His 7.7 YPC and 28 receptions add extra appeal. So why did he fall to the end of the 5th round in the draft, not even the first RB that the Packers took? After a hot start to the 2015 season he tore a ligament in his ankle after two games. He also missed time as a freshman and had over 250 touches in both of his two full seasons. Jones also has little experience against top competition but he did put up 150+ yards against Texas Tech twice and also had 124 yards with a 6.8 YPC against Texas last year. I like Ty Montgomery a lot but I don’t think the Packers see him as a true feature back. Aaron Jones is one of my favorite sleepers in this draft.
May 21, 2017
Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 1st Round
Some of you have already drafted, immediately following the NFL draft. Others wait until after the preseason which can both genuinely and deceptively boost a player’s stock. For my leagues I like to do the draft in early June. The dust settles on the rookies and it gives us time to consider what their roles will be. So with my drafts coming up, I decided to release my rankings with some brief analysis. I was a little hesitant knowing some of my league mates will read this but I’ve really been itching to get some content out there.
I think it's important to discuss the factors I value for my rankings. Probably first and foremost is draft investment. If a team likes you enough to take a player in the first or second, they probably want to feature that player pretty heavily. The same goes for players undrafted or late in the draft. It is very very hard to end up being successful after all 32 teams have passed on you several times. Second I look at college production. In general, very few players that weren't stars in college end up being more productive in the NFL. I prefer to use College Dominator which looks at a percent of the team's yards that a player accounted for. I also prefer power-5 conference production. However I will make exceptions like with my #1 player this year.
I also find myself valuing landing spot and initial opportunity more and more. Guys like Todd Gurley and Will Fuller are two examples of players I really like but their team really hampered their 2016 production. In general if a guy doesn't have great opportunity in year one, his value will fall even though it is common for players to struggle as rookies, or even in their second year. Next would be athleticism. You can succeed in the NFL without being a top athlete (see Jarvis Landry) but players that are fast, agile and strong tend to have a higher success rate. I love a good combination of size and speed and I also look at SPARQ scores for a better idea of a player's overall athleticism. Lastly, age-adjusted production is something I keep in mind. There is a big difference between a guy putting up eye-popping numbers at 20 years old vs 23 years old (I'm looking at you Cooper Kupp).
Final note: I don't watch tape. I will sometimes be watching games live and form opinions from that but in general I trust a combination of the factor listed above. It's led me to some pretty nice success looking for rookies over the past few years.
After keeping Leonard Fournette in this spot pretty much since the 2016 college season was underway, I finally relented shortly after the NFL draft completed. Basically it comes down to landing spot and situation. Both are immensely talented but Corey Davis lands in an offense that is just better in every way. He’s likely to play like a star in year one but he should have immediate impact and be a long term fantasy starter. For year one I expect somewhere around 100 targets and between 800-1000 yards. In the future I see multiple top 15 seasons from Davis.
Despite Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon on the team, Fournette should immediately become the bellcow back with 200+ carries. That said, there is a lot more room for failure than with Zeke Elliott last year behind a sterling offensive line. Worst-case scenario, Fournette could be 2016 Todd Gurley with less touches. Gurley was in a horrendous offensive situation and it led to 3.2 YPC and 6 TDs despite over 300 touches. Best case is probably not far off from Zeke - 275 carries, 1400+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. I definitely believe the Jaguars offense as a whole is far better than the Rams were last year and so I’m more optimistic. Fournette could definitely finish top 10 as a rookie.
While everyone else seems to be gravitating towards Joe Mixon here, I remain very bullish on CMC. I think he has the highest floor of any rookie in this draft. He’s very athletic, very productive in college and very young - he does not turn 21 for another few weeks. The main knock against him is that he is small (5’11”, 202 lbs) and awful in the bench press so there is some worry about whether he will be able to keep going after first contact and whether he will get hurt. I think he makes up for this concern with his elusiveness - he caught 99 passes in 37 games with 12.2 yards per catch. I think he is a perfect fit for the Panthers who have desperately needed a short game passing option. He should get 150+ carries and 50 receptions as a rookie. I have a very hard time seeing him below 1000 yards from scrimmage and if his catching ability is as good as I think it is, there is room for a good bit more.
Mixon checks off all the same boxes that CMC does and is also more of a true feature back size. However he is a big question mark off the field and it is up to each person to decide how much they want to factor that in. Falling to the middle of the second round as a result, he fell to a team that already has two decent (or perhaps, not horrible) backs in place. As a result I think he may face some of the same problems that Derrick Henry did in year one competing for touches with DeMarco Murray. Gio and Hill are definitely not on the same level, but Gio will most likely remain the top 3rd down back on the team. Hill is coming off back-to-back sub 4.0 YPC seasons but he does have 30 touchdowns in his three years with the Bengals. I expect Hill to vulture some touchdowns in 2017. The talent is very real but there are more question marks that keep him behind CMC
Williams is a player that has seen his draft stock fall over the last two months. This despite a strong championship game against Alabama, perfect WR1 size and being drafted 7th overall. The concerns are Philip Rivers being old and Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams already being in place for the Chargers. However Keenan Allen has yet to play a full season and is now coming off a torn ACL. Despite the general success rate of returns from ACL injuries, it is still not wise to assume Keenan will be 100% in 2017. Tyrell had a fine season but is not someone I (or the Chargers, clearly) fully trust. If Mike Williams is as good as the Chargers believe, he will have no problem making a year one impact. If you are picking 5 or 6 and you let him slide past you, there is a strong chance you will come to regret that move.
Surprised? Don’t be. Evan Engram is the best fit for his team of the 1st round tight ends. At 6’3” 234 lbs he is very undersized for a tight end. A tight end that is expected to block anyway. In Ben McAdoo’s pass heavy offense it is crystal clear to me that Engram will be utilized in much the same manner as Jordan Reed. Making up for his size, Engram has 4.42 speed which is just insane for a guy that is as big as he is. Engram was also very productive in college, leading his Rebels in receptions, rec yards and TDs as a senior. I think he makes an immediate impact, although the presence of three quality WRs will limit him in 2017. He should still be able to bring in 600+ yards which would be excellent for a tight end. If/when Brandon Marshall leaves the team, Engram will really blossom.
Howard is also a tremendous tight end prospect and his 4.51 speed at 6’6” 251 lbs is just as if not even more impressive than Engram’s. The main knock I have is that he wasn’t super productive in college. Sure Alabama didn’t pass as much, but even when adjusting for that his numbers don’t really dazzle. He may be a better NFL player than fantasy player. With Mike Evans and Desean Jackson around, I expect those two to be the centerpieces of this offense in 2017. Cameron Brate may even stay ahead of Howard in year one. Long term I do think Howard becomes a quality fantasy player but it will likely take a little longer than Engram. Greg Olsen - a comparable player in terms of size, speed and college production - was a top ten fantasy tight end in his second and third years but only barely. He did not break out until his second year in Carolina and his sixth year in the NFL. Thankfully, Howard is in a better position with a young franchise QB and stud WR on the team.
The fastest player ever recorded at the combine, Ross is a super exciting player for that alone. The same arguments about Mike Williams’ draft capital can be made here. You do not draft a guy in the 1st round without big plans for him, and that is only more true for a top ten pick! However unlike Williams’ I do have some more concerns. First and foremost, the Bengals have a much more reliable stud than Keenan Allen already in place. That being A.J. Green of course. The other concern being John Ross’ injury history. He tore his ACL in 2015, but bounced back strong this past year. He also injured his shoulder in 2016 which required surgery that he put off until after the combine. In fact even at the combine he strained his calf muscle at the end of his record setting run. I have no doubt he has very real playmaking ability but he will need to prove his ability to stay on the field.
Cook is a player where tape and athleticism are at odds. Cook was monstrously productive at Florida State and went into the combine as the #1 or #2 running back. However, outside of a 4.49, Cook’s combine numbers were disastrous. Mike Zimmer HATES playing rookies. I can’t find the tweet but I believe it was Graham Barfield who tweeted out the # of rookie snaps for each team in 2016 and the Vikings were far and away the lowest. I’d like to see this change but I’m not counting on it. With Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon, the Vikings could probably get away with limiting Cook’s touches this year as well. Between that and the concerns over his athleticism I will most likely not be getting Cook in any of my drafts.
One of my favorite players in this draft, Zay has an easy path to a first year impact. Even if we make a bold assumption that Sammy Watkins plays all 16 games and puts up big numbers, there is literally no other wide receiver on this roster that I would even want on my dynasty team. Corey ‘Philly’ Brown? Meh. Kolby Listenbee? Maybe as the last man on my roster. I see a very similar situation to Sterling Shepard last year. Except that Zay is bigger and more athletic and also just had one of the greatest college careers ever! The one knock against Zay is his paltry 11.1 yards per catch in college. Zay says it was the result of the system he played in and I buy it. I will not be surprised if Zay finishes among the top two for rookie receivers.
Godwin is probably the player among my top twelve that I feel the least certain about. Another super athlete with 4.42 speed, Godwin had big time numbers in 2015 but actually dropped off in ‘16 despite a more productive and pass-heavy offense behind redshirt sophomore Trace McSorley. Godwin is unlikely to have a big year one impact without injury. Even longer term, Mike Evans is going to stick around. O.J. Howard was also brought in. Desean Jackson is with the team at least through 2018, although they also have him on contract through 2019. So where does Godwin fit? The most probable scenario is that Tampa becomes a very pass heavy team and Desean Jackson slides back to WR3 in ‘18 and also Howard never totally emerges. Also if Jameis ends up being a truly elite talent, there could be room for everybody to succeed. Either way, I like the talent so much that I have him in my 1st round despite being very unsure of how he puts up numbers.
The last of three absolutely tremendous tight end prospects that were drafted in the first round, Njoku landed in easily the worst situation. His QBs for 2017 will be Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Brock Osweiler. Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman are the top targets. I would be very surprised if Njoku is able to have a significant impact this year as the #3 target with those QBs. However as a prospect he is worth taking here. He isn’t as fast as Engram or Howard but with a 4.64 40 he is still well above average. He is also a better all-around athlete with the second best SPARQ score among TEs. He had a whopping 16.6 yards per catch in college. Lastly while both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram will be 23 by season's end, Njoku doesn’t turn 21 until July. Njoku will definitely require a little more patience but is absolutely worth it.
Postscript: It’s been a while since I’ve written anything and it wasn’t easy getting back to it. I am definitely rusty. I just want to say thank you for following me on twitter even when I’m not delivering a whole lot of quality content. More importantly thank you for taking some of your valuable time to read this. I will be focusing on dynasty content going forward. I’m hoping to have plenty more dynasty content this year and it will definitely (hopefully) get better the more I write!
I think it's important to discuss the factors I value for my rankings. Probably first and foremost is draft investment. If a team likes you enough to take a player in the first or second, they probably want to feature that player pretty heavily. The same goes for players undrafted or late in the draft. It is very very hard to end up being successful after all 32 teams have passed on you several times. Second I look at college production. In general, very few players that weren't stars in college end up being more productive in the NFL. I prefer to use College Dominator which looks at a percent of the team's yards that a player accounted for. I also prefer power-5 conference production. However I will make exceptions like with my #1 player this year.
I also find myself valuing landing spot and initial opportunity more and more. Guys like Todd Gurley and Will Fuller are two examples of players I really like but their team really hampered their 2016 production. In general if a guy doesn't have great opportunity in year one, his value will fall even though it is common for players to struggle as rookies, or even in their second year. Next would be athleticism. You can succeed in the NFL without being a top athlete (see Jarvis Landry) but players that are fast, agile and strong tend to have a higher success rate. I love a good combination of size and speed and I also look at SPARQ scores for a better idea of a player's overall athleticism. Lastly, age-adjusted production is something I keep in mind. There is a big difference between a guy putting up eye-popping numbers at 20 years old vs 23 years old (I'm looking at you Cooper Kupp).
Final note: I don't watch tape. I will sometimes be watching games live and form opinions from that but in general I trust a combination of the factor listed above. It's led me to some pretty nice success looking for rookies over the past few years.
1.) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
After keeping Leonard Fournette in this spot pretty much since the 2016 college season was underway, I finally relented shortly after the NFL draft completed. Basically it comes down to landing spot and situation. Both are immensely talented but Corey Davis lands in an offense that is just better in every way. He’s likely to play like a star in year one but he should have immediate impact and be a long term fantasy starter. For year one I expect somewhere around 100 targets and between 800-1000 yards. In the future I see multiple top 15 seasons from Davis.
2.) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon on the team, Fournette should immediately become the bellcow back with 200+ carries. That said, there is a lot more room for failure than with Zeke Elliott last year behind a sterling offensive line. Worst-case scenario, Fournette could be 2016 Todd Gurley with less touches. Gurley was in a horrendous offensive situation and it led to 3.2 YPC and 6 TDs despite over 300 touches. Best case is probably not far off from Zeke - 275 carries, 1400+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. I definitely believe the Jaguars offense as a whole is far better than the Rams were last year and so I’m more optimistic. Fournette could definitely finish top 10 as a rookie.
3.) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
While everyone else seems to be gravitating towards Joe Mixon here, I remain very bullish on CMC. I think he has the highest floor of any rookie in this draft. He’s very athletic, very productive in college and very young - he does not turn 21 for another few weeks. The main knock against him is that he is small (5’11”, 202 lbs) and awful in the bench press so there is some worry about whether he will be able to keep going after first contact and whether he will get hurt. I think he makes up for this concern with his elusiveness - he caught 99 passes in 37 games with 12.2 yards per catch. I think he is a perfect fit for the Panthers who have desperately needed a short game passing option. He should get 150+ carries and 50 receptions as a rookie. I have a very hard time seeing him below 1000 yards from scrimmage and if his catching ability is as good as I think it is, there is room for a good bit more.
4.) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon checks off all the same boxes that CMC does and is also more of a true feature back size. However he is a big question mark off the field and it is up to each person to decide how much they want to factor that in. Falling to the middle of the second round as a result, he fell to a team that already has two decent (or perhaps, not horrible) backs in place. As a result I think he may face some of the same problems that Derrick Henry did in year one competing for touches with DeMarco Murray. Gio and Hill are definitely not on the same level, but Gio will most likely remain the top 3rd down back on the team. Hill is coming off back-to-back sub 4.0 YPC seasons but he does have 30 touchdowns in his three years with the Bengals. I expect Hill to vulture some touchdowns in 2017. The talent is very real but there are more question marks that keep him behind CMC
5.) WR Mike Williams, San Diego Chargers
Williams is a player that has seen his draft stock fall over the last two months. This despite a strong championship game against Alabama, perfect WR1 size and being drafted 7th overall. The concerns are Philip Rivers being old and Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams already being in place for the Chargers. However Keenan Allen has yet to play a full season and is now coming off a torn ACL. Despite the general success rate of returns from ACL injuries, it is still not wise to assume Keenan will be 100% in 2017. Tyrell had a fine season but is not someone I (or the Chargers, clearly) fully trust. If Mike Williams is as good as the Chargers believe, he will have no problem making a year one impact. If you are picking 5 or 6 and you let him slide past you, there is a strong chance you will come to regret that move.
6.) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants
Surprised? Don’t be. Evan Engram is the best fit for his team of the 1st round tight ends. At 6’3” 234 lbs he is very undersized for a tight end. A tight end that is expected to block anyway. In Ben McAdoo’s pass heavy offense it is crystal clear to me that Engram will be utilized in much the same manner as Jordan Reed. Making up for his size, Engram has 4.42 speed which is just insane for a guy that is as big as he is. Engram was also very productive in college, leading his Rebels in receptions, rec yards and TDs as a senior. I think he makes an immediate impact, although the presence of three quality WRs will limit him in 2017. He should still be able to bring in 600+ yards which would be excellent for a tight end. If/when Brandon Marshall leaves the team, Engram will really blossom.
7.) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Howard is also a tremendous tight end prospect and his 4.51 speed at 6’6” 251 lbs is just as if not even more impressive than Engram’s. The main knock I have is that he wasn’t super productive in college. Sure Alabama didn’t pass as much, but even when adjusting for that his numbers don’t really dazzle. He may be a better NFL player than fantasy player. With Mike Evans and Desean Jackson around, I expect those two to be the centerpieces of this offense in 2017. Cameron Brate may even stay ahead of Howard in year one. Long term I do think Howard becomes a quality fantasy player but it will likely take a little longer than Engram. Greg Olsen - a comparable player in terms of size, speed and college production - was a top ten fantasy tight end in his second and third years but only barely. He did not break out until his second year in Carolina and his sixth year in the NFL. Thankfully, Howard is in a better position with a young franchise QB and stud WR on the team.
8.) WRJohn Ross, Cincinnati Bengals
The fastest player ever recorded at the combine, Ross is a super exciting player for that alone. The same arguments about Mike Williams’ draft capital can be made here. You do not draft a guy in the 1st round without big plans for him, and that is only more true for a top ten pick! However unlike Williams’ I do have some more concerns. First and foremost, the Bengals have a much more reliable stud than Keenan Allen already in place. That being A.J. Green of course. The other concern being John Ross’ injury history. He tore his ACL in 2015, but bounced back strong this past year. He also injured his shoulder in 2016 which required surgery that he put off until after the combine. In fact even at the combine he strained his calf muscle at the end of his record setting run. I have no doubt he has very real playmaking ability but he will need to prove his ability to stay on the field.
9.) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook is a player where tape and athleticism are at odds. Cook was monstrously productive at Florida State and went into the combine as the #1 or #2 running back. However, outside of a 4.49, Cook’s combine numbers were disastrous. Mike Zimmer HATES playing rookies. I can’t find the tweet but I believe it was Graham Barfield who tweeted out the # of rookie snaps for each team in 2016 and the Vikings were far and away the lowest. I’d like to see this change but I’m not counting on it. With Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon, the Vikings could probably get away with limiting Cook’s touches this year as well. Between that and the concerns over his athleticism I will most likely not be getting Cook in any of my drafts.
10.) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills
One of my favorite players in this draft, Zay has an easy path to a first year impact. Even if we make a bold assumption that Sammy Watkins plays all 16 games and puts up big numbers, there is literally no other wide receiver on this roster that I would even want on my dynasty team. Corey ‘Philly’ Brown? Meh. Kolby Listenbee? Maybe as the last man on my roster. I see a very similar situation to Sterling Shepard last year. Except that Zay is bigger and more athletic and also just had one of the greatest college careers ever! The one knock against Zay is his paltry 11.1 yards per catch in college. Zay says it was the result of the system he played in and I buy it. I will not be surprised if Zay finishes among the top two for rookie receivers.
11.) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin is probably the player among my top twelve that I feel the least certain about. Another super athlete with 4.42 speed, Godwin had big time numbers in 2015 but actually dropped off in ‘16 despite a more productive and pass-heavy offense behind redshirt sophomore Trace McSorley. Godwin is unlikely to have a big year one impact without injury. Even longer term, Mike Evans is going to stick around. O.J. Howard was also brought in. Desean Jackson is with the team at least through 2018, although they also have him on contract through 2019. So where does Godwin fit? The most probable scenario is that Tampa becomes a very pass heavy team and Desean Jackson slides back to WR3 in ‘18 and also Howard never totally emerges. Also if Jameis ends up being a truly elite talent, there could be room for everybody to succeed. Either way, I like the talent so much that I have him in my 1st round despite being very unsure of how he puts up numbers.
12.) TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
The last of three absolutely tremendous tight end prospects that were drafted in the first round, Njoku landed in easily the worst situation. His QBs for 2017 will be Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Brock Osweiler. Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman are the top targets. I would be very surprised if Njoku is able to have a significant impact this year as the #3 target with those QBs. However as a prospect he is worth taking here. He isn’t as fast as Engram or Howard but with a 4.64 40 he is still well above average. He is also a better all-around athlete with the second best SPARQ score among TEs. He had a whopping 16.6 yards per catch in college. Lastly while both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram will be 23 by season's end, Njoku doesn’t turn 21 until July. Njoku will definitely require a little more patience but is absolutely worth it.
Postscript: It’s been a while since I’ve written anything and it wasn’t easy getting back to it. I am definitely rusty. I just want to say thank you for following me on twitter even when I’m not delivering a whole lot of quality content. More importantly thank you for taking some of your valuable time to read this. I will be focusing on dynasty content going forward. I’m hoping to have plenty more dynasty content this year and it will definitely (hopefully) get better the more I write!
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