Chase Claypool: From Canada to Notre Dame to Seriously Impressive and Under the Radar Prospect.

Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tier 3

Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'

Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal. 

When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.

Tier 3

While my 2nd tier had a specific group of young QBs that I think have more to offer, my 3rd tier is more of a mixed bag. This tier includes the older guys that are still very good but can’t be counted on for anything more than the year ahead, if that. It includes some guys in their late 20s who are good but don’t appear to have what it takes to be elite. Lastly there are a couple younger guys that have flashed big talent but with far more inconsistency than the players in tier 2. This tier ended up being much larger than my first two, so I decided to make this tier its own article.

10.) Matthew Stafford

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 18.0 (10th)

HC/OC: Jim Caldwell / Jim Bob Cooter

Top Receivers: Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron, Kenny Golladay

If anyone were to make the jump to an elite dynasty QB from this tier, it would be Stafford. For starters, he already has one stud season under his belt. It was all the way back in 2011 when he was just 23, but that 5000 yard 40 pass TD performance remains in the back of my mind for what he is capable of. Over the past three years with Jim Bob Cooter as QB coach and then offensive coordinator, Stafford has evolved as a QB. During that span he has put up 64.5% completion rate and 78 TDs to just 35 ints in 48 games. For comparison, he had thrown 52 interceptions with a 60.6% completion rate in the previous three seasons.

It has come with a loss of some of the high volume stats he used to have but I do believe there is a chance for Stafford to put the best of both versions of himself together at some point in the next couple of years. It will help that the Lions awful run game from 2016 should be better with the return of Ameer Abdullah. I also like the addition of Golladay and hopefully we can see a more consistent Tate/Jones as well. I expect several more top twelve seasons for Stafford.

11.) Kirk Cousins

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 19.1 (6th)

HC/OC: Jay Gruden / Matt Cavanaugh

Top Receivers: Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson

Cousins has been every bit as good as Stafford the last couple of seasons, even a little better. Why does he find himself lower in my rankings? For me the considerable turnover in receivers plus a new offensive coordinator has me a little wary. Just a little bit. Jay Gruden undoubtedly played a big part in Cousin’s success, but I’m sure former OC Sean McVay played a big part as well. McVay’s replacement Matt Cavanaugh has been around the game a very long time but with mixed results. So that coupled with the loss of Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon keeps him below Stafford.

The Redskins did bring in some new weapons as well. Most notably Terrelle Pryor was given a surprisingly cheap one year prove it deal. I think he is a great addition but he could also be gone after the season. Perhaps just as noteworthy, the Redskins hope to have a full season of Josh Doctson in 2017. Doctson missed basically the entire year dealing with an achilles injury. He caught just two passes. On paper, the team should be able to continue being productive without missing a beat.

12.) Andy Dalton

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 16.4 (20th)

HC/OC: Marvin Lewis / Ken Zampese

Top Receivers: A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, John Ross, Tyler Boyd, Giovani Bernard

I think I have a love/hate relationship with Dalton. After being among the highest fantasy analysts on him the previous two seasons, he is given two top weapons and I’ve...kind of cooled off on him? I can see the cases both for and against Dalton. On one hand he missed a total of 20 games combined from A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard. That is very similar to the narrative I used in support of Dalton after the 2014 season when, sure enough, he got a healthy 2015 from those guys and had an excellent season. At this point though it’s hard to justify an expectation of a full season from Eifert and to a lesser extent, A.J. Green.

Along with the addition of two new offensive weapons, there were also positive takeaways from last year. Dalton actually bettered his INT% to a career best 1.4%. He also had a career low in TD% at 3.2. That number was even lower than his rookie season (3.9%) and even without considering the depleted receiving corps he had last year, that would be expected to improve. So what is keeping Dalton from being higher? He finished 5th in 2013 and was 7th in PPG through 13 weeks of 2015. You know what? I have convinced myself. I’m making last minute changes to this tier and raising Dalton up higher. I don’t really see Dalton ever putting up truly elite numbers but top ten numbers? He’s done it in the past with a healthy and talented corps and he should do it again.

13.) Carson Wentz

Age: 24/25

2016 PPG: 13.5 (28th)

HC/OC: Doug Pederson / Frank Reich

Top Receivers: Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith

The first thing that probably jumps out about Wentz is his 2016 points per game. At 13.5 and 28th best for a QB last year, it is far lower than anyone else on the list to this point. That is part of what makes dynasty wonderful, we try to project improvement going forward! There is also more to consider with Wentz. Through the first five weeks of the season, Wentz was more or less matching Dak Prescott in fantasy production. Dak had 17.3 PPG (5 games) and Wentz had 16.9 (4 games). After those first four games the Eagles best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson, had his 10 game suspension upheld. From weeks 6 through 15 Wentz had just 11.8 PPG. When Johnson returned, Wentz again stepped up his game with 15.4 PPG over the final two games (one admittedly against Cowboys backups). 

Assuming Lane can stay away from the PEDs, that gives us a big reason to be optimistic. Another is the signings of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to bolster a very shallow WR corps and give Jordan Matthews much needed help. The team also drafted 6’4” Mack Hollins and deep threat specialist Shelton Gibson. It is safe to say 143 targets will not be wasted on the likes of Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor again. Taking these two things into consideration, a top 20 finish is absolutely expected for Wentz and top 15 seems reasonable as well. It is not yet clear whether he will develop into a star but there is definitely talent and that puts him as high as he is on my list.

14.) Ryan Tannehill

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 15.1 (23rd)

HC/OC: Adam Gase / Clyde Christensen

Top Receivers: Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas

Tannehill had an interesting season. He had career highs in completion %, TD% and ANY/A. Those numbers would indicate a breakout fantasy season. That was not the case. Tannehill had his lowest yards per game and highest INT% and also threw just 389 times in 13 games. In fact the Dolphins as a whole ranked dead last in offensive plays per game, which was fairly uncharacteristic of an Adam Gase offense. By ranking Tannehill 14th, I am expecting the good statistics to be repeated while also seeing the Dolphins become a higher volume offense. They don’t even necessarily have to be a more pass heavy offense, just more plays. If they could go from 32nd to 20th, that would have been nearly 100 extra plays in 2016. That would go a long way in improving Tannehill’s numbers.

Tannehill was also beginning to show signs of a much more fantasy relevant passer before going down with a partial ACL tear. Over his final 5 games he had a 71.0% completion rate and 11 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. He was the 13th best QB in PPG during that span. It’s also no secret that I still like Devante Parker a lot and think he has the potential to be a true WR1. Pair that with Jarvis Landry being one of the best possession receivers in the game and the elite speed of Kenny Stills (3rd in yards per catch min 50 targets) and there is a lot to like about this passing game. The trade for Julius Thomas also made perfect sense as Julius broke out under the tutelage of Adam Gase in Denver. He is a perfect end zone target for Tanny IF he can stay healthy. Don’t be surprised when Tannehill has a career year in 2017.

15.) Tom Brady

Age: 40

2016 PPG: 21.3 (5th)

HC/OC: Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels

Top Receivers: GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Dwayne Allen, James White

At age 40, can Brady be counted on for anything more than one year at a time? Absolutely not. In fact, even assuming 2017 won’t be the year he falls off is a risk. That said, it is a risk I am willing to take. It is always a struggle to rank an older elite talent in dynasty but for just 2017, Brady could be a difference maker for any team. Brady of course missed four games in 2016 but when he came back he was the same old Brady. In fact he set a career best in INT% (the all-time record in fact) and his highest TD% since his 2010 MVP season. He continued to throw for nearly 300 yards a game and his 28:2 TD:INT was just absurd.

As if that wasn’t enough, barring an age decline 2017 could somehow be even better. Gronk was active for just 3 full games and the addition of Brandin Cooks gives this team speed that it didn’t have before. I have an incredibly hard time imagining how much better things can get for Brady but another 300 yards/game 40 TD season is very possible.

16.) Ben Roethlisberger

Age: 35

2016 PPG: 18.5 (7th)

HC/OC: Mike Tomlin / Todd Haley

Top Receivers: Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Le’Veon Bell, Juju Smith-Schuster, Sammie Coates

After so many injuries - Big Ben has played all 16 games just three times in his thirteen year career - Roethlisberger feels more likely to hit his decline this year or next than Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I could be 100% wrong on that but Roethlisberger himself has already admitted to contemplating retirement. When on the field? Ben has never been better than the last three seasons and the Steelers have repeatedly added weapons to his offense. In 2015 he had a personal best of 328.2 pass yards per game, which was the 3rd most ever. Of course he only played in 12 games. Last year he also saw a marked increase in his TD% to 5.7. However his yards per game fell as deep threat Martavis Bryant was suspended for the entire year, Sammie Coates was relegated to special teams only after emerging early on thanks to a broken hand. Le’veon Bell missed four games. Markus Wheaton & Ladarius Green missed most of the season as well. That put role players like Eli Rogers and Cobi Hamilton into far more significant roles than the Steelers would have liked.

For the 2017 season, Martavis Bryant has been reinstated, Sammie Coates is healthy and looking to build on his early breakout and of course the team drafted Juju Smith-Schuster in the 2nd. After the Steelers offense finished 10th in points and 7th in yards (which was fantastic considering how much time expected contributors missed), the team is poised to rebound to 2015 numbers where they were 4th in points and 3rd in yards. Big Ben’s injury history absolutely scares me and as a result I don’t look at him any differently than Tom Brady as a dynasty asset despite the age difference. That said, he is another QB that can win championships in 2017.

17.) Drew Brees

Age: 38

2016 PPG: 21.6 (3rd)

HC/OC: Sean Payton / Pete Carmichael

Top Receivers: Mike Thomas, Willie Snead, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn, Coby Fleener

You’ll notice right away that Drew Brees PPG was higher in 2016 than the previous two QBs. So why when I have already said I’m not counting on them for more than one year is Brees lower? The answer is simple. Those two teams are gaining significant pieces for their pass game while the loss of Brandin Cooks (who of course goes to the aforementioned Tom Brady) is not made up for with Kamara and Ginn. The Saints are also set to run more on paper with the additions of Kamara and Adrian Peterson, but I’ve believed that in the past and it hasn’t really been true.

Brees has yet to really lose a step as he led the league in pass yards an unprecedented 7th time and 3rd consecutively. He also hit 30+ touchdowns for the 9th straight year and hit the 70% completion rate mark for the third time. Brees and Payton have been a perfect match over the last decade. It’s hard to say how much the loss of Cooks will affect the team. He led them in receiving yards and yards per catch although it was clear that 6’3” Michael Thomas was emerging as the WR1 by season’s end. Ted Ginn keeps the speed on the offense but at 32 years old he has certainly lost a step and isn’t as fast as Cooks, nor was he ever as good as a total receiver. Coby Fleener was also a disappointment in his first year with the Saints and they definitely need him to step up in 2017 for Brees to repeat his numbers. I have my concerns about Brees but he has a very good chance to rattle off yet another top 5 season.

18.) Blake Bortles

Age: 25

2016 PPG: 17.8 (13th)

HC/OC: Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett

Top Receivers: Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook, T.J. Yeldon

Ah Blake Bortles. One of the most enigmatic fantasy QBs. Is he or isn’t he a franchise QB? 2016 saw a slight improvement in completion percentage, and career bests in INT % and sack %. On the whole however, the season was a clear step backward and Bortles was far more inefficient and saw significant decreases in passing yards and touchdowns. The Jaguars also surprised many by hiring a HC and OC that were already part of the previous failed regime.

So what are the positives? When Doug Marrone took over as HC, Bortles had two of his best games all season. In both he had a completion rate better than 60% and threw for over 300 yards without any interceptions. It’s an extremely small sample size but gives a glimmer of hope to Bortles truthers that all is not lost. He also has a very talented group of receivers that was improved with the draft pick of Dede Westbrook. Leonard Fournette may not be much of a pass catcher and will surely hurt the volume of Bortles but for a team that was bottom ten in rush attempts, yards and touchdowns the presence of Fournette will do more good than bad. Bortles is very far from a sure thing but I lean more towards the positive side. (Disclaimer - there may be some subconscious bias as I am a Jaguars fan)

Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tiers 1 & 2

Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'

Precursor: Thanks to those who voted! I asked if people wanted rankings or individual player pieces and you chose rankings. I still hope to get to more article style writing later on in the year. These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal. 

When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.

Tier 1

The top tier of quarterbacks consists includes the best of the best. These guys have proven production and generally both a high floor and high ceiling. They all should have 3+ years of top production remaining. I don’t generally value QBs too highly in a standard 1QB league but I would value these players at a 1st+. In 2QB, probably about three 1sts.

1.) Andrew Luck

Age: 27/28
2016 PPG: 21.3 (4th)
HC/OC: Chuck Pagano / Rob Chudzinski
Top Receivers: T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Jack Doyle

First the bad - I struggled with this one. Luck finished just 11th in ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) last year. After T.Y. Hilton his receivers are talented but unproven (add Dorsett and Kamar Aiken as the next two after the trio above). He missed time in 2015 with a shoulder injury, missed a game in 2016 due to a concussion and is currently recuperating from offseason shoulder surgery (He is not expected to miss any regular season games). So there is definitely a bit of an injury history with Luck that doesn’t get talked about often.

So what makes Andrew Luck my #1 dynasty QB? Despite a not so great corps of receivers, he did finish 4th in PPG last year and Moncrief and Doyle may get better. Luck has dealt with a poor offensive line the past few years and while it is still not great, the Colts have their starting 5 from the end of last season returning. Three of those players were rookies last year. That kind of stability could go a long way. There is definitely room to continue improving the receivers and offensive line. I see several more top 5 seasons in Luck’s future and likely some #1 seasons as well.

2.) Aaron Rodgers

Age: 33/34

2016 PPG: 23.9 (1st)

HC/OC: Mike McCarthy / Edgar Bennett

Top Receivers: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett, Ty Montgomery

One of the greatest QBs to ever play the game, is it time to start holding Rodgers’ age against him? I say yes but only to a very small extent. You never know when the decline may come. We have been spoiled by the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and even Brett Favre playing at a very high level in their late 30s in recent years, but that simply doesn’t happen with everyone and to assume it will with Rodgers simply because he is an all-time great would be a mistake.

Rogers was very good but not great in 2015. He had a 16 game stretch from the 6th game of 2015 to the 5th game of 2016 where he had 600 pass attempts but just a 58% completion rate, 3700 yards and 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. That is a fine player but well below what we’ve come to expect from Rodgers. In the final 14 games of last year including playoffs, Rodgers was playing as good as he ever had. His numbers during those games? 66.8% completion rate, 4262 pass yards and a 39:5 TD:INT ratio. There’s no reason to think he’ll stop putting up those top QB numbers again anytime soon.

If there is one area of concern to be aware about it is that prior to the 2016 season, the team surprisingly cut G Josh Sitton. Following the season they let go of their other long time Guard T.J. Lang. He was replaced by aging former stud Jahri Evans who will be 34 before the season starts. Rodgers is definitely a QB that makes the job of his offensive lineman easier and they still have an above average line overall but losing such quality players in back-to-back years is worth noting. Rodgers will decline eventually but all signs point to at least a couple more years at the top of the QB rankings.

3.) Russell Wilson

Age: 28/29

2016 PPG: 17.1 (16th)

HC/OC: Pete Carroll / Darrell Bevell

Top Receivers: Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, C.J. Prosise

I have to admit, I looove Russell Wilson. He is a very different QB from Andrew Luck as well. For starters 2016 was his most passing attempts yet at 546. Andrew Luck had 545 in one less game and averaged 604 passes in his three prior full seasons. Wilson’s value comes in part due to his very high floor. He has finished 11th or better in total points in all five of his seasons. This was in large part thanks to never missing a game. Up until last year when he dealt with a bad ankle he was also aided by above average mobility. Assuming his ankle is 100%, I do expect some more running again in 2017.

Outside of the lack of mobility in 2016, Wilson’s numbers declined in part thanks to an abnormally low TD%. Through 7 games, Wilson was throwing more than ever but had just 5 touchdowns. Over the final 11 games including two playoff games, Wilson threw 20 touchdowns. This represented a 5.5% TD rate, much closer to his career average of 6.1% before 2016. My point here is that I don’t see a repeat of 2016’s stats and that Russ should continue to put up top 10 or better seasons going forward. I also think his receivers are underrated. He may not have a T.Y. Hilton but Doug Baldwin has emerged as an excellent player. The rest of his receivers all have very different qualities from one another (throw rookie Amara Darboh in that mix as well) that will complement each other nicely. 

The Seahawks offensive line was genuinely horrendous in 2016. They signed Luke Joeckel (a draft bust for sure but he does actually represent a likely upgrade for Seattle), drafted Ethan Pocic 58th overall and are desperately hoping for improvement from 2016 1st rounder Germain Ifedi who finished 72nd of 72 qualifying Guards according to PFF player grades. They still have a ways to go to fix this line long term but they should be a little better this year and that will only help.

4.) Cam Newton

Age: 28

2016 PPG: 17.9 (11th)

HC/OC: Ron Rivera / Mike Shula

Top Receivers: Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin, Curtis Samuel, Christian McCaffrey

In 2015, Cam had his best season to date with 3800 pass yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 630 rush yards and 10 rush TDs to go along with it. I’d go so far to say it was one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. Everything that went right in ‘15 went wrong in ‘16 as he had career worsts in pass TD %, completion % and rush yards while tying his previous low of 5 rushing TDs. The fact that he was still the 11th best fantasy QB in PPG was pretty impressive. Further hurting his value, he also had offseason shoulder surgery much like Andrew Luck. 

The Panthers wasted no time trying to make sure Cam would not have another “poor” season. The Panthers picked three times in the first two rounds. They drafted RB Christian McCaffrey, a WR hybrid in Curtis Samuel and G Taylor Moton. They also spent a surprisingly high amount of money on FA Matt Kalil who at best could have been described as inconsistent during his time with the Vikings. I’m on record stating I love the fit of both McCaffrey and Samuel and I think they will be huge for the Panthers passing game.

Cam gets unfairly tagged as an injury prone player. He does play physical and takes hits thanks to how often he runs. He does play banged up from time to time and I think that played a part in his poor 2016 season. That said, he has played in 93 of a possible 96 regular season games and 99 of 102 games including playoffs. There is always a little recency bias when a player is coming off a disappointing year. You can take advantage of that by acquiring Cam this offseason!

5.) Matt Ryan

Age: 32

2016 PPG: 22.0 (2nd)

HC/OC: Dan Quinn / Steve Sarkisian

Top Receivers: Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu

I hesitated a bit before including Matt Ryan as the last player in my first tier. He was never a top 5 QB before last year and will he be able to maintain the success that came with Kyle Shanahan? I’m not 100% certain but I do think he will enjoy several more years of quality production. For starters Matt Ryan averaged 4500 passing yards and 27 pass TDs in the five years prior to his 2016 breakout campaign. Even with some dropoff he is probably a top 5 QB.

He also has an excellent supporting cast around him. That starts with one of the best WRs in the game in Julio Jones. I also think while Devonta Freeman’s ability as a pass catcher is appreciated, the RB duo’s value to the passing game combined is a little underrated. Along with Tevin Coleman, the two put up a receiving line of 85-883-5 last year. Throw in Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and promising young TE Austin Hooper and you have a team that is built to continue putting up big offensive numbers.

Tier 2

The next 4 players represent the future of the QB position in dynasty. These young players already have a good season or two under their belt with room to grow. I would put their worth at a mid to late 1st in 1QB and 2 to 2.5 1sts in 2QB.

6.) Jameis Winston

Age: 23

2016 PPG: 16.9 (17th)

HC/OC: Dirk Koetter / Todd Monken

Top Receivers: Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin

Yes, Winston is my favorite of the second and third year QBs. For starters he is the youngest at just 23 years old. His age adjusted production is just phenomenal. There are 6 QBs that have thrown for 3000 yards at age 22 or younger. Jameis is the only one to do it at 21. There are 3 QBs to throw 4000+ yards at 22 or younger. Jameis has done it twice. He is also one of nine players to throw for 20+ TDs at 22 or younger and again holds the sole distinction of doing it twice as well as the record for most touchdowns by a player that young with 28 last year.

That brings us to 2017. Coming off a 4000 yard 28 TD season the Bucs gave Winston upgrades at every position. It starts with the big FA signing of Desean Jackson. DJax and his speed are a perfect complement to Mike Evans. In the draft they took O.J. Howard 19th overall and he should come in and start right away or at least make a very nice duo with Cameron Brate. In the third they took Chris Godwin who is one of my favorite receivers in the draft and will have an opportunity to be the long time #2 for the Bucs. They weren’t done though as they added a quality pass catching RB in Jeremy McNichols in the 5th round as well. It is not unrealistic to forecast a jump into the top tier after this season.

7.) Marcus Mariota

Age: 23/24

2016 PPG: 17.7 (14th)

HC/OC: Mike Mularkey / Terry Robiskie

Top Receivers: Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, Demarco Murray, Taywan Taylor

Much like with Jameis Winston's Bucs, the Titans have focused on giving their young franchise QB as many weapons as possible. Last year they focused on the run game and the offensive line with DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry and Jack Conklin. This year it was all about the pass game with Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith all in the top 100 picks. Mariota had a fantastic sophomore campaign, improving both his TD% and INT% to numbers that were actually better than Winston’s. The flipside is that most notably Mariota is recovering from a broken leg and missed multiple games as a rookie with two separate sprained MCLs. Mariota’s smaller frame has led to some worry about his ability to hold up over a full season and the injuries certainly haven’t helped.

The biggest piece missing for Mariota was a true #1 WR and the Titans hope to have found that in Corey Davis. Davis, Rishard Matthews and Taywan Taylor make a very talented trio although it may take a year for the rookies to really hit their stride. At tight end Delanie Walker is older but I did really like the pick of Jonnu Smith. Really the only thing limiting Mariota is that he won’t throw nearly as much as Winston - the Titans finished 28th in pass attempts last year, content to run the ball as much as possible with Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The added receivers will improve that number for sure, but don’t expect a pass heavy offense in the next couple of years.

8.) Dak Prescott

Age: 24

2016 PPG: 17.9 (12th)

HC/OC: Jason Garrett / Scott Linehan

Top Receivers: Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley

Prescott is coming off what I would consider the greatest rookie QB season of all-time. Adjusted for era Dan Marino’s rookie campaign may be better but the point stands! Dak was phenomenal with numbers that rookie QBs just don’t put up like a 23:4 TD:INT ratio and a 67.8% completion rate. Where can he go from here? About that...I worry about his ceiling in the short term because this offense is built for its power run game. While Dez is still very good, he hasn’t been quite as good the last two years and the rest of the receivers are lacking. At some point, hopefully with next year’s free agency and draft class they will give the passing game some newer younger weapons.

Dak reminds me a lot of a less mobile Russell Wilson. Both came in as a mid-round draft picks that were not expected to start right away. For different reasons, they did and put up extremely strong seasons in doing so. Aided by a good offense all around them, the two QBs had some of the normal pressures of being a rookie QB starter taken off of them. Much like Wilson, Dak will be very capable of multiple top ten seasons in the short term but the team is going to remain in the bottom ten for passing attempts (they were 30th in 2016). It’s a matter of floor vs ceiling with Dak and I do believe his floor will stay extremely high. That consistency he showed as a rookie is extremely valuable.

9.) Derek Carr

Age: 26

2016 PPG: 18.2 (9th)

HC/OC: Jack Del Rio / Todd Downing

Top Receivers: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook

The last promising young QB of this tier is Derek Carr. Carr was the most successful of the four in 2016 but is also the oldest and is coming off a broken leg. Nor did the Raiders invest so heavily in the passing game. While they have nice receivers it isn’t quite as sexy as Mariota or Winston. Adding Marshawn Lynch may mean a decrease in pass attempts but Lynch was always a decent receiver and should help more than he hurts. The Raiders also have a phenomenal pass blocking line. The line allowed just 18 sacks. That was just one of six times in the past five years that a team allowed 20 or fewer sacks.

Looking at Carr’s weapons, Amari Cooper has been a curious player. He is certainly extremely talented but he has not been favored in the Red Zone. Over the last two seasons, the Raiders have passed in the red zone 146 times. Cooper has seen just 20 of those targets with only 8 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile Seth Roberts has 29 red zone targets on far fewer total targets. He’s also been more successful with 9 red zone touchdowns. Is this just a two year statistical oddity? For Carr to be his best I think it needs to change, and it likely will. I also hope the Raiders will be more aggressive acquiring offensive talent in the next couple of seasons. Crabtree turns 30 in September and Cook/Lynch are even older.

Dynasty Rookie Sleepers - Players to monitor after your rookie draft

I told you all I felt this was a really deep draft class right? Even after covering 53 players so far, I still have players I want to bring up. Pretty much every year without fail there are guys that go undrafted in dynasty rookie drafts but end up being contributors to fantasy teams. In 2015 Thomas Rawls fit the bill. Last year it was Dak Prescott (in 1QB leagues that drafted early) and Tyreek Hill. To a lesser extent, undrafted players Robby Anderson and Jalen Richard became worthy of at least being on dynasty rosters. Below I have five guys I don’t see myself drafting but I do plan to keep an eye on them. If you are in a league like mine with expanded rosters during the offseason, these guys make great stashes. If they generate buzz during the preseason, great! If not they can be cut without harm.

RB Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers

I’m starting off with Breida because A.) I think it’s well documented that I am all in on Kyle Shanahan at this point and B.) He is the #1 SPARQ RB of 2017. He was also insanely productive in college with 171 carries in 2014 for 1485 yards and 18 total touchdowns. That’s an incredible 8.7 yards per carry. In 2015 he backed that up with 203 carries for 1609 yards and 17 touchdowns. That was a 7.9 YPC. These numbers came at the Sun Belt Conference’s Georgia Southern but that 8.7 YPC was the third best since 2000 minimum 150 carries (via Sports-Reference). The guy was on pace to be a 3rd or 4th round draft pick at worst. 

Then...2016 happened. While remaining as Georgia Southern’s feature back he had 168 carries for 646 yards and 5 TDs. That is a 3.8 YPC which would have been unacceptable for an NFL prospect in even the toughest of conferences. The dropoff was shocking and I can’t think of a comparable situation. Breida was not even invited to the NFL combine. I’m sure expectations were low at Georgia Southern’s pro day but even if scouts were expecting impressive athleticism from Breida, he blew them away. He ran a 4.39 in the 40 (4.44 after adjusting for hand timed) and combined it with an impressive 23 reps of the bench press. That would have been the 4th best 40 time and tied for third best in the bench press at the combine. He didn’t stop there though. His 42” vertical was easily better than anyone at the combine (Alvin Kamara’s 39.5 was #1). His 11’2” broad jump? Once again better than any combine RB, beating Kamara’s 10’11” jump.

So here we have a guy that put up eye-popping numbers in 2014 and ‘15. He is insanely athletic. He was paired with one of the best offensive minds in the game. He was just genuinely so terrible in 2016 that everything else must be taken with a grain of salt. I want to stash this guy on all of my offseason rosters. If anybody can rectify whatever his 2016 issues were, its Shanny.

WR Isaiah Ford, Miami Dolphins

Much like college teammate Bucky Hodges (coincidence or not?) in my previous article, Ford was a guy that many draft analysts had in their top 100. Ford had excellent numbers as a 3-year starter and is only 21 years old so adjusted for age they look even better. However, unlike Bucky Hodges, Ford did not excel at the combine outside of a 127” broad jump. He ran a 4.61 40 yard dash and at 6’1” 194 lbs he isn’t nearly big enough to ignore that lack of speed like with Mike Williams. The final nail in the coffin was NFL teams validating those issues by letting Ford slip all the way to the 7th round, 237th overall. If possible to make that even worse, he went to the Dolphins who are loaded at receiver with Landry, Parker, Stills and even Carroo. You have to imagine the Dolphins do like him quite a bit to take him in the draft at all despite their WR depth but I would still give Ford almost no chance to make an impact in 2017. He is worth a deep roster stash just to see if he can make some waves in the preseason but if he finds his way onto any of my rosters I doubt he’d make my regular season team.

TE Jake Butt, Denver Broncos

After the criticism Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette faced for skipping their bowl games, Butt was a somber reminder why it’s not a bad idea. The promising Butt (ugh that sounds weird) was likely going to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder with a chance for immediate impact before tearing his ACL in the Orange Bowl. That was December 30th of 2016 meaning there is a very good chance he does not play a down in the NFL this year. It also means we don’t have athletic measurements on Butt. 

With the Broncos, Butt has little competition as of now. However his QB situation is uncertain and OC Mike McCoy has a spotty track record with tight ends. McCoy made very little use of receiving TEs in his first stint with the Broncos. Julius Thomas played his first two years under McCoy but did not break out until Adam Gase came in. When becoming the Chargers head coach he was handed one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Antonio Gates and we can’t really attribute any success Gates had to McCoy. However he also was the man in charge while Ladarius Green gave us flashes of brilliance without ever becoming the fantasy starter many expected. Lastly in his final year as HC rookie Hunter Henry emerged as a potential future star at the position. There is definitely talent and opportunity here and Butt can be stashed on the IR in dynasty leagues, but is it worth passing up a player that can possibly increase his value in the now? For me that’s a no but I wouldn’t fault anyone for disagreeing.

*Super Sleeper Special*

RB Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams, Cincinnati Bengals

An awesome nickname, SEC production and above average athleticism, it’s simultaneously weird and understandable that Boom comes with zero fanfare. Obviously, the primary and extremely significant factor is opportunity. Signing with the Bengals it’s near impossible to imagine Boom getting significant playing time. Unless they keep 4 RBs it’s hard to see him making the team - even then RB Cedric Peerman has been a special teams mainstay for several years. Come to think of it, maybe getting cut by the Bengals would be the best possible outcome for Boom!

Anyway...Boom (yeah that’s right, I’m sticking with the awesome nickname) played at Kentucky, one of the runts of the SEC which certainly aided his lack of buzz. He’s also very small at 5’7”, though his 190 lbs is not an issue at that height. As far as production, results were mixed. He never went below 6.5 YPC in his three years and that is phenomenal in the SEC. On the flip side he maxed out at 171 carries and 1,170 yards in 2016 while also being on the lesser side of an RB committee. As a senior he had poor performances in the bowl game against Georgia Tech and also against Alabama (as one would expect) but also had a 15-123-1 vs South Carolina and 16-127-1 line against Tennessee. At the combine he ranked above average in every drill except for the bench press. That’s a bit of a shame as it would have offset his small size. Boom has basically no chance to make an impact on the Bengals in the now or in the future with Joe Mixon being there. I can only hope he finds his way to another team. He meets too many of the criteria I look for in a prospect to not get mentioned here.

Dynasty Deep Dive - Five more players to consider in your rookie draft!

As I tweeted out right after I published my 4th round article, I still had a number of dynasty prospects that intrigued me. My drafts may only be 48 to 49 picks (depending on a toilet bowl bonus pick!) but there are still players out there that I wanted to highlight. In fact even after this article I may have a few more I want to bring up! Anyway, these players are not too far off from my 4th rounders and could be taken in the 40s without issue from me.

WR Ishmael Zamora, Oakland Raiders

If you’re reading this article you are probably enough of a dynasty nut to know why Zamora did not get drafted. Despite size (6’4” 224 lbs) that offensive coordinators would drool over and above average athleticism, no team wanted to risk the backlash of drafting Zamora. His offence: disciplining his dog by whipping his rottweiler with a belt. There is video of it but frankly I couldn’t bring myself to watch it. Zamora had a 63-809-8 line in 10 games and definitely flashed star potential. He was inconsistent though and after leaving college with just one year as a starter, he will likely have a harder time adjusting to the NFL. I don’t see myself taking him in my rookie draft but I would have to consider adding him if he was available on waivers afterward.

RB T.J. Logan, Arizona Cardinals

If you own David Johnson, it is an absolute must that you find a way to get your hands on this speedster. With very little competition to speak of, Logan is almost guaranteed the handcuff role to DJ. On his own merit, he is an intriguing dynasty flier as well. He was the fastest RB at the combine at a 4.37. He caught 76 passes in college. Should anything happen to David Johnson (though I certainly hope that isn’t the case!) you can expect Logan would fill some of that void in the passing game along with picking up carries. The biggest issue with Logan is that he never had a feature role in college. He led the RBs in touches at UNC in 2014 but it was just 119 carries as the offense centered around QB Marquise Williams who had 193 carries. In 2015 and 16 he was the lesser half of a decent but not great RB duo with Elijah Hood. However, thanks to a strong combine and landing spot, Logan is the one to own in dynasty. Let me reiterate though that if you own David Johnson, Logan is an absolute must grab. Make sure you have a 4th round pick to spend on him.

WR Jehu Chesson, Kansas City Chiefs

Going into the 2016 season I think Chesson and his fellow Wolverine Amara Darboh were about equal as NFL prospects. Coming out of the season Darboh had clearly set himself apart. Chesson was slightly more productive in 2015 but for whatever reason, QB Wilton Speight heavily preferred Darboh and even TE Jake Butt as Chesson slid from a line of 50-764-9 to 35-500-2. Yikes. Chesson recouped some value with a fantastic combine where he ranked as the 14th best WR in SPARQ (Darboh was 18th). Chesson ran a 4.47 in the 40 which was excellent for his size (6’3” 204 lbs). He also ranked above average in every other drill outside of the bench press. His value hinged on the outcome of the NFL draft and going at the end of the 4th to the Chiefs was just okay at best. He gives future starter Patrick Mahomes another fast and big target to go along with Chris Conley. For 2017 don’t expect much of an impact if any as Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be the main weapons in the passing game.

RB Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears

I love me some Tarik Cohen. He was insanely productive at FCS North Carolina A&T. He was a four year starter with a final season of 1927 YFS and 19 TDs. Those numbers came with a 7.5 YPC and 37 receptions. He is also fast - he ran a 4.42 at the combine. According to mockdraftable, he has massive hands at 10 and an eighth inches, 95th percentile. That’s great for the pass-catching back he profiles as. What kept him off my top 48? Well he’s tiny. 5’6” 179 lbs. He’s not strong either with a 2nd percentile bench press. He reminds me of the faster but similar sized Dri Archer. Archer was drafted in the 3rd round by the Steelers and ended up being a zero in the NFL. What may separate Cohen from Archer is that Tarik was far more productive in college with a much bigger sample size as well. Cohen is never going to be a feature back so I don’t really factor Jordan Howard into his value. Cohen’s best bet at relevance will be a third down back and his speed and hand size give him a lot of potential in that role. Watch the vid below, ‘nuff said.

TE Bucky Hodges, Vikings

This is a very deep class for TEs and Bucky Hodges continues the trend. Hodges is extremely athletic, and ranks 3rd in SPARQ score among TEs. He was also a three year starter with nice numbers. He was originally recruited to Virginia Tech as a quarterback but quickly moved to tight end. The fact that he was able to make an impact as a redshirt freshman with very little experience really was amazing. Many draft analysts had Hodges as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. For whatever reason he fell all the way to the Vikings in the 6th round, 201st overall. The most likely reason for his draft day fall was that he still has a ways to go as a receiver. ProFootballFocus compared him to Jimmy Graham but also cited a very high drop rate as a concern. He will likely need a year or two to adapt to the NFL and continue honing his skills as a pass catcher but Hodges has a very high ceiling and is well worth considering in the 4th round of your draft.

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 4th Round

I’d say this is where we look at the really deep sleepers and identify some rather unknown players but honestly, there are a number of high profile names that fell to my 4th round for any number of reasons. There are multiple players drafted in the top 100 still to be named. Multiple combine darlings. Multiple FBS stars with big time production. Maybe it is because I’ve done more research this year but I honestly feel like this is the deepest class that I’ve seen since I’ve been doing dynasty (4th year now). 2014 was tremendous as far as WRs go but I don’t believe the 4th round had as much to offer as 2017 does. This round is WR heavy. I have a reputation as a hoarder of WRs and love looking for diamonds in the rough at the position so that is no surprise to those that play dynasty with me. Read on to see what I think!

37.) WR Trent Taylor, San Francisco 49ers

Taylor is an intriguing case of big time production at odds with his lack of size and athleticism. Taylor led the FBS in receiving yards, ahead of his much higher rated teammate Carlos Henderson. He was also second in receptions. His line of 136-1803-12 is eye popping. He rarely faced top teams but was at least respectable when he did. 4-68-1 against Oklahoma. 8-80-0 against Auburn. Both of those games came as a sophomore, mind you. 10-149-1 against Arkansas State in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl. 8-78-0 against Arkansas. Lastly, in their final game for Louisiana Tech it was Taylor who shined in the Armed Forces Bowl with the best performance of his college career, putting up a line of 12-233-2 against Navy in a game his team won as time expired. If Taylor could have simply put up respectable numbers at the combine it would have been so much easier to like him. Instead you get a guy that is tiny for the NFL at 5’8” 181 lbs and also very slow at 4.63. For what it’s worth Taylor also has tiny hands for a receiver at 8 and a quarter inches. According to mockdraftable.com that puts him in the 2nd percentile. If you recall from 2016, there was plenty of skepticism over Tajae Sharpe’s hand size and he comes in at 8 and three quarters inches. I love Taylor’s college production and I think he can be a decent slot receiver in the NFL but his ceiling is very much capped by his size and athleticism. He will have opportunity right away with the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan will get the most out of him, but to take him earlier than the 4th round would be quite a risk.

38.) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars

Dede was electric on the field. His 80-1524-17 line at Oklahoma is absurd. For comparison, Joe Mixon’s 37 recs and 538 rec yards were second most on the team. He also has big play speed with a 4.44 in the 40. How in the world did a guy with numbers like that fall so far? A couple domestic violence incidents were the main factor. His extremely slender frame also played a part. At 6’0” he is 4 inches taller than Taylor above and (spoiler!) Ryan Switzer below but weighs just 178 lbs. His numbers outside of the 40 yard dash were mostly poor. He is also among the older rookies and turns 24 in November. For dynasty purposes, landing with the Jags was less than ideal. I do believe Allen Robinson is firmly locked in as the WR1 while Hurns and Lee will battle for the WR2 & 3 roles. It’s hard to see Westbrook making a big impact in year one unless you think he is a phenomenal talent. In which case he should be able to pass Hurns and Lee and you should take him somewhere in the 3rd. Westbrook may have the highest ceiling of any player in my 4th round but he requires patience and certainly comes with concerns.

39.) WR Ardarius Stewart, New York Jets

Ardarius is one of those guys I look at and say “Wow, do I really have him so low?”. Ardarius was pretty productive for the Crimson Tide after you adjust for the low passing numbers. He maxed out at 54-864-8 in college, but of course Alabama runs as much as they can. He clocks in for the 40 at 4.49 which is very nice with his 5’11” 204 lbs size. He was drafted 79th overall which is much higher than some of the players elsewhere in my 4th round. He has opportunity to make an impact right away but...it’s with the Jets. The Jets are vying with the Rams for worst passing situation in the league. With the Rams signing an offensive head coach, I’d probably put the Jets at the bottom. The Jets finished 27th in pass yards and 28th in pass TDs last year. I don’t see that number improving. I’m definitely in favor of them getting some help for the pass game but their offensive outlook is so bleak that I intend to let someone else take Stewart this year and then perhaps buy him at a rather low price late in 2017 or 2018 if he shows talent or they get a better situation on offense.

40.) RB Wayne Gallman, New York Giants

Gallman was a 3 year starter for one of the premier college teams and landed with a team where he could end up starting at some point this year. I won’t be surprised if he gets taken in the late 2nd of some rookie drafts. However, looking a little deeper shows a player that doesn’t really have much to offer. Despite starting for the national champs, he numbers were not great outside of 17 touchdowns. His 4.9 YPC was well below average for an NFL prospect and also dropped off from his Sophomore year which you never like to see. When Clemson needed him most, he pretty much never stepped up. 9 carries for 34 yards when the Tigers were nearly upset by Troy. 18 for 36 in the lone loss of the season to Pittsburgh (although he did score 3 touchdowns). Lastly 18 carries for 46 yards against Alabama. Of course Alabama shut down plenty of talented running backs so make of that what you will. At the combine he did not improve his draft stock either. Gallman ran a 4.60 and finished in the bottom 50% in every drill except the bench press and broad jump. By drafting Gallman the Giants seem to have put value on Gallman playing against some of the toughest competition. If you draft Gallman it will be on the hope he starts some games this year and I’d rather look for someone with more talent but less opportunity.

41.) WR Mack Hollins, Philadelphia Eagles

Now into the 4th round you can probably guess what I like about Mack Hollins. He has the perfect size speed combo at 6’4” with a 4.53 in the 40. That led to a career yards per catch of 20.6. However he fell due to a broken collarbone in 2016 as well as an injury at the combine. Even before the broken collarbone he was not having a great senior season. He definitely needs to become more refined as a receiver as well, having maxed out at 35 catches in a year at North Carolina. He was a deep threat specialist and it remains to be seen if he can become anything more in the NFL. He also joins a very crowded receiver corps with Alshon, Jmatt and Torrey Smith at the top. I have to think he can at least pass DGB and Agholor for #4 in 2017.

42.) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Drafted in the early 3rd, 69th overall (nice), Kupp is a very divisive player in the dynasty community. As you can see, I am on the low end with him. He was incredibly productive all 4 years of college but never improved a whole lot from his freshman year. He is seen as a polished route runner. In 2016 he was 23 years old and dominating FCS competition. I was skeptical then and after a very poor combine and poor landing spot with the Rams, I am pretty much all out on Kupp. If he does fall to the late 3rd or early 4th, he would be a nice pick because of draft investment, but that is the only thing I like about him.

43.) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers

I’ve seen some growing Jamaal Williams hype lately and it’s not entirely undeserved. Williams was very productive in college while playing against decent competition at BYU. He might have been drafted earlier if not for a dismal combine where he excelled in the broad jump (123”) but was awful pretty much everywhere else. At 6’0” his 212 lbs is a rather slender frame for RB. If you’ve read my earlier round articles you already know I think he just doesn’t stack up to rookie teammate Aaron Jones. Of course, they both also have to beat out Ty Montgomery who I really like as well!

44.) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

How could I have Watson so low? Especially compared to Mahomes and Kizer who are less likely to start right away. The answer is simple - I just don’t think Watson will be very good in the NFL. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Quarterback is for me easily the hardest position to project. One of the most damning statistics comes from the great @AllbrightNFL's QB spreadsheet. Ben ranks QBs and has a pretty good track record doing so. One of his main attributes is QB ball velocity. 55 MPH is his threshold for a draftable QB. Brad Kaaya and Nathan Peterman were off the list at 53 MPH. Deshaun Watson was charted at a paltry 49 MPH. He has data going back to 2008. The most successful QBs at 50 and under are Tyrod Taylor (50 MPH) and Mike Glennon (49 MPH). Tyrod is of course heavily aided by his mobility. Deshaun will move around but he will not be nearly the running QB that Tyrod was. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. For 2QB leagues he would probably vault to the late 2nd round by virtue of being a likely starter, but in 1QB leagues where starting QBs are not a scarce commodity I will gladly pass. I’d be totally okay whiffing on Watson but I’ll let someone else take that chance.

 45.) RB James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Conner is another one of my favorites that I won’t be drafting, but am excited to see his career play out. At 6’1” 233 lbs, Conner dominated the ACC as a true sophomore in 2014. Then as I’m sure you know by now, he was diagnosed with cancer in 2015. The fact that he was even able to return to the team is awesome, but to step in and put up big numbers? It’s an absolutely incredible story.  The highlight would undoubtedly have to be his 187 yard 2 TD performance in a victory against eventual champion Clemson. He did start off the season pretty slowly and that’s understandable. When, if ever was he truly back to 100%? It’s hard to say. All we know for certain are the numbers we have. He continued to be a bruiser and scored 20 touchdowns but is very slow at 4.65. His bench press numbers were fine but not great. The biggest hindrance to his value is surely the fact that he got drafted by the Steelers. Le’veon Bell has had some injuries and has even been suspended but he is one of the very best in the game. That coupled with his below average athleticism has me staying away. It’s very possible he has a lot of room for growth still but I’d rather find out while he is on someone else’s team.

46.) WR Josh Malone, Cincinnati Bengals

Much like Westbrook, Malone is a guy I would have liked a lot more if he either went a round or two earlier in the draft or at least went to a team with a clearer path to targets. As it stands, he is firmly behind AJ Green and John Ross and will battle Brandon Lafell and Tyler Boyd for any sort of relevancy in 2017. Most likely he will have a very quiet rookie season. That said….this guy really checks off a lot of the boxes I look for in my prospects. For starters he is a speed demon and ran a 4.40. He also has excellent size to match at 6’3” and 208 lbs. His 50-972-11 line led Tennessee in all three categories and even had a very respectable 5 for 61 against Alabama. He had a 5-120-1 line against Nebraska in the Vols bowl game. Lastly he is just 21 years old. I struggle to understand why he fell to 128th overall in the draft. Digging a little deeper, Pro Football Focus really made him out to be a raw receiver and questioned his effort. He reminds me a lot of Chris Conley. A great guy to have on the bottom of your roster with potential to break out down the line if things work out. (I’m still rostering Conley in a couple leagues)

47.) WR Ryan Switzer, Dallas Cowboys

That brings us to Ryan Switzer who is in the same vein as Trent Taylor. In fact at 5’8” 181 lbs they are identical size and right next to each other in the 2017 SPARQ rankings. In Switzer’s favor he was drafted more than a full round earlier and played for UNC in a power-5 conference where he led the team in catches and yards with a 96-1112-6 line. He’s also a little younger and does have the slight edge in SPARQ, notably coming in faster at 4.51. Where Switzer falters is his stats. He only had one year of elite numbers to Taylor’s two (with a strong 3rd season as well). Switzer definitely faced top level competition more often but Taylor’s numbers are just so much better and as I pointed out, Taylor was at least decent against the better opponents. Perhaps more importantly, there is no immediate role for Switzer to step into. While Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are nothing special, I don’t see Switzer moving ahead of them in year one. Long term there is definitely opportunity, but it’s no guarantee he will secure one of those roles.

48.) WR De’Angelo Yancey, Green Bay Packers

Yancey is one of my favorite under the radar players. He is 6’2” 220 lbs so he has great size and he was very productive, leading the big ten in yards per catch in 2016 with a line of 49-951-10 at Purdue. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and also crushed the bench press. He flew under the radar mostly thanks to playing for an awful Purdue team that went 3-9 and while they did throw for a lot they were pretty bad at it outside of Yancey. He wasn’t drafted until the late 5th but I still expected his landing spot to catch more attention than it did. I suppose with Jordy, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb as the clear trio at the top, a likely insignificant role in 2017 for a late draft pick isn’t worth much more than a tiny blip. I still think Yancey is intriguing. Jordy is very much on the old side for a receiver and Randall Cobb could be a cut after 2017. Cobb has one of the biggest contracts for a receiver and hasn’t come close to meeting his pay. Another season that Cobb toils around 7-800 yards and he would be a cap casualty. The long-term path to targets is not nearly as bad as many seem to believe. Yancey is definitely a guy I see myself grabbing in the late 4th, though he might end up being a regretted cut when my leagues downsize at the end of the preseason. 

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That wraps up my 4 round rookie draft rankings! Thanks to all who took the time to read through them. There are still a handful of players that are worth talking about beyond these 48, so I will likely be posting another article or two looking at some additional prospects to either consider drafting or grabbing on the waiver afterwards. As we know in dynasty - there is never an end to the adjusting of the bottom of your roster. If you aren’t continually on the prowl for an improvement on the worst player on your roster, you’ve lost!

Sources for all 4 rounds:

www.pro-football-reference.com / www.sports-reference.com/cfb - I seriously can’t imagine looking up statistics without these two tremendous sites.

www.playerprofiler.com - Mostly my go-to source for college dominator ratings, they also provide an excellent snapshot of athleticism for prospects as well as plenty of in-depth stats for NFL players.

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ - SPARQ scores. Use these over xSPARQ on player profiler as they are the actual SPARQ rankings!

www.mockdraftable.com - I used to avoid this site but at some point they updated to a much nicer looking simplistic design. Detailed spider charts on size and athleticism for all combine players and plenty of non-combine pro days as well!

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 3rd Round

I think a few sleeper prospects may have crept into my 2nd round, the ones that I really like. The third round is a mix of guys I am lower than most on vs some more sleepers that I would love to get in this round. There is upside all the way through the third round but a lot of it comes with a lack of clear immediate opportunity or other issues (level of competition, athleticism and age). Identify a couple guys in this round that fit your preference in prospects and target them in the draft!

25.) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes is the QB of the future for the Chiefs. Key word there is ‘future’ as Mahomes is the most likely rookie to see zero playing time this year. To draft Mahomes would be a luxury, so you really have to be sold on his talent. He definitely has that. He is a gunslinger with a big time arm. His 60 MPH ball velocity is about as fast as it gets and he used that arm to lead the FBS in passing yards in 2016 and put up 77 pass TDs over the past two seasons. He has drawn comparisons to hall of fame gunslinger Brett Favre, so it’s no surprise offensive guru Andy Reid liked him. Reid was with the Packers for the early days of Favre’s career and helped develop him. I mentioned it earlier with Kareem Hunt but Reid is great at working with a player’s style rather than forcing them into his scheme. The Chiefs may have a conservative pass attack with Alex Smith, but that will absolutely change for the Mahomes era. The Chiefs already have a big touchdown threat in Travis Kelce and elite speed with Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley so this offense is ready for Mahomes, and they will likely add more in the future. Mahomes is set up to succeed. He just requires patience from a dynasty owner.

26.) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are without a doubt going to be a pass first team going forward. I don’t think any RB on the team will be particularly successful in 2017. However I also see the Bucs as one of the teams with wide open opportunity at the position. Doug Martin is kind of an unknown for 2017, Charles Sims isn’t very good, Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers are just guys. McNichols could lead this team in touches as a rookie. He has nice speed (4.49) and good combine numbers across the board. He was highly productive in two years as a starter with Boise State and finished 2016 with the second most touchdowns from scrimmage (27). He also caught 103 passes in college so he can kind of do it all. What’s not to like? He was only a 5th rounder much like Aaron Jones in the round 2 article, but he didn’t have injury issues keeping him down. McNichols 5.4 YPC was not great, especially outside of the power-5. When facing tougher competition he didn’t step up. This was most clear in his final game as a collegiate player with a very poor performance against Baylor in the Cactus Bowl (70 YFS, 2.4 YPC). He has a great opportunity but he will need to prove he can handle the NFL level.

27.) WR Amara Darboh, Seattle Seahawks

You may see Darboh and roll your eyes at another Seahawk WR pick. Dating back to 2013 here are the receivers the Seahawks have drafted: Chris Harper, ‘13 123rd overall & never caught a pass in the NFL. Paul Richardson, ‘14 45th overall perhaps has some talent but landed on IR in both of his first two seasons and didn’t look the same in 2016. He was taken ahead of Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry in the 2nd round alone. Kevin Norwood ‘14 123rd overall caught 9 passes and only lasted one year with Seahawks. Tyler Lockett, ‘15 69th overall. A fine player but thus far has not proven to be anything special and now recovering from a broken leg. Kenny Lawler, ‘16 243rd overall. Okay so this was at the end of the draft so we can forgive the fact that he has never been on the active roster. Alright that was your dynasty bonus, a review of recent Seahawks WR draftees. 4 busts and one Tyler Lockett who is definitely not a success but not a failure yet either. So that brings us to Darboh, taken 106th overall at the end of the 3rd round. I will now make a modest case for why Darboh has a better chance to succeed. Darboh has a great size/speed combination at 6’2”, 214lbs and 4.45 in the 40. He is pretty highly ranked in SPARQ score. Darboh also had a productive year for Michigan, leading the team in recs, rec yards and rec TDs. Although being the poor offense that Michigan was, his stat line of 57-862-7 just isn’t that sexy. What separates him from the recent WRs the Seahawks have drafted? He is the first receiver they’ve taken that has the whole package of size, athleticism and production. His college numbers being what they were is the main reason I think he fell as far as he did (in addition to being older at 23 years old). I also think he fits a big need for the Seahawks and can replace the very bad Jermaine Kearse opposite Doug Baldwin on the outside. The Seahawks lack of success with WRs concerns me but they have a good QB and I happen to like this player so I’ll be somewhat optimistic with Darboh.

28.) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

It’s not often you get a 6’4”, 4.50 highly productive receiver that flies under the radar. Golladay is quickly gaining steam in the dynasty community but he is still not a top draft pick. I like his fit with the Lions where Golden Tate is very reliable but not a superstar and Marvin Jones had mixed results in year one. Stafford has transitioned into a less aggressive more consistent QB under OC Jim Bob Cooter but the Lions would definitely like someone who can at least fill a little bit of the void Calvin Johnson left at WR1. I think it is important to note that Golladay is one of the oldest rookies as he turns 24 in early November. He also faced almost no top competition and did not fare well when he did (Ohio State and Boise State in 2015). He likely will need a period of adjustment which is not great for a guy that is already older.

29.) TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams

Everett is an absolute beast, right up there athletically with the tight ends that are in my 1st round. He also has the college production to match, putting up a 49-714-4 line for a team that did not throw a whole lot. He just happened to do it at a smaller school and also fell to the Rams where I am not at all confident in Jared Goff. Everett is also undersized at 6’3” 239lbs and his 4.62 is good but nothing compared to Evan Engram! The fact remains that Everett is a very good prospect and despite landing with a less than ideal situation he’s worth taking at the beginning of the third. Expect a quiet year one with a chance for big things going forward.

30.) WR Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams

6’3”, fairly athletic and productive against tough competition, I am surprised Reynolds fell as far as he did in the draft (117th overall). It seems the biggest concern was his slender frame at just 194 lbs. He was an excellent deep threat with a line of 61-1039-12, good for 17 yards per catch. He scored a touchdown in all but two games in 2016 and saved his best for last when he put up a 12-154-2 line in the Texas Bowl against Kansas State. After falling in the draft, he also landed in one of my least favorite situations with the Rams. Should I have a pick in the middle of the 3rd, I’ll be hoping Sean McVay can improve that offense quickly because Reynolds is my favorite WR the Rams have.

31.) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Mack is both athletic and productive but fell to the end of the 4th round in the NFL draft. This was in part due to the fact that he did not lead his team in rushing despite 1,187 yards and a 6.8 YPC. His mobile QB stole the show from him! In addition he is a little undersized and didn’t do himself any favors in the bench press. I’m unconvinced he can thrive at the NFL level. He did go to the right spot with the Colts. Odds get higher every year that Gore finally hands over the reigns to someone new. If you are looking for an immediate contributor, I think Mack could be bumped up a little but I imagine they will add someone new next year as well.

32.) QB Deshone Kizer, Cleveland Browns

I have a love/hate relationship with Kizer. His numbers fell in 2016 and many feel he could have used another year in college but I can’t fault him for leaving. Notre Dame was a dumpster fire and Brian Kelly is Brian Kelly. (I am neither a Fighting Irish fan nor hater but I do not care for Brian Kelly) Kizer has prototypical size for a QB and solid ball velocity. While his numbers fell off and his 58.7% completion rate in 2016 is not good, he did still have 47 pass TDs to 19 interceptions in his two seasons. He definitely has the potential to start for several years in the NFL but the Browns will need to bring him along slowly.

33.) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia Eagles

It is easy to write off Pumphrey as too small (5’8”, 176lbs) but I love that he went to the team that rosters Darren Sproles and can work with one of the all-time great undersized backs. He was also massively productive in college with 2000+ YFS and 17+ touchdowns in three straight years. That is both a positive and a negative as he never missed a game in college, proving he can handle a lot despite his stature. However even appropriately sized players get hurt after so much work. It is definitely concerning to an extent. Also outside of a respectable 4.48 in the 40, he did not impress at the combine. His 5 reps of the bench press (0 percentile) is about what you would expect for Pumphrey but if you look back to Darren Sproles he actually crushed the bench press with an above average 23 reps. It would have been nice to see some surprising strength from Pumphrey. He will certainly be a risk to take in Dynasty. Expect him to mostly sit in 2017 and hopefully learn from watching how Sproles works.

34.) WR Chad Williams, Arizona Cardinals

Williams was an FCS star at Grambling State and put up an impressive line of 90-1337-11 as a senior. Obviously the competition was lacking but he did play against Arizona last year. The Wildcats were very bad but Williams had 13 receptions for 152 yards. For a team that was likely outmatched in many ways, that is very promising. It is also perhaps interesting to note that Williams was drafted late in the third round out of a small school much like his new teammate John Brown. While it is nice to see a little history of the Cardinals finding success in small school receivers, I should note these are two very different players. Williams is fast at 4.45 but not THAT fast. Williams enters a situation with an aging QB and no heir apparent which is not great. There is an opening as the top option in the pass game that he will most likely contend for with John Brown. There is upside here for sure.

35.) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago Bears

D-II Gronk as I like to call him, Shaheen is MASSIVE at 6’6” 278 lbs and surprisingly agile with respectable times in most of his combine drills. He was a touchdown machine with a line of 57-867-16. The issue is...it came at D-II Ashland University. Given that I put a premium on power-5 conference production over other FBS schools and give far less consideration to even FCS production, you can imagine I am very wary of Shaheen. The Bears clearly didn’t have any concerns, taking him 45th overall. That was right after Gerald Everett and well ahead of the previously mentioned Jonnu Smith. I am certain he will take some time to get used to the extreme change in level of competition. I mean, was anybody even willing to tackle a guy this size in D-II? Shaheen will be one of my favorites to watch his career play out, but for dynasty purposes I expect someone else to grab him first.

36.) TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Rounding out the 3rd round we have yet another tight end in this class that I love so much. I may have Kittle 36th overall but he is still very much worth looking into. Kittle is incredibly athletic and is the #1 ranked SPARQ TE for this year. However while he did have decent production after adjusting for the offense, Iowa passed so little in 2016 that Kittle finished with a line of 22-314-3 for the year and 48-737-10 in his college career. Those guys can succeed in the NFL but it's generally not great to put up such small numbers in college, even if it is mostly because of the offense. It should also be noted that he is on the old side and will turn 24 in October. Shanahan did not feature tight ends while in Atlanta but did bring out the best in Owen Daniels and Jordan Reed previously. As a Shanny fan I’m intrigued any time he brings in a new offensive weapon.