Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'
Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
Tier 3
While my 2nd tier had a specific group of young QBs that I think have more to offer, my 3rd tier is more of a mixed bag. This tier includes the older guys that are still very good but can’t be counted on for anything more than the year ahead, if that. It includes some guys in their late 20s who are good but don’t appear to have what it takes to be elite. Lastly there are a couple younger guys that have flashed big talent but with far more inconsistency than the players in tier 2. This tier ended up being much larger than my first two, so I decided to make this tier its own article.
10.) Matthew Stafford
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 18.0 (10th)
HC/OC: Jim Caldwell / Jim Bob Cooter
Top Receivers: Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron, Kenny Golladay
If anyone were to make the jump to an elite dynasty QB from this tier, it would be Stafford. For starters, he already has one stud season under his belt. It was all the way back in 2011 when he was just 23, but that 5000 yard 40 pass TD performance remains in the back of my mind for what he is capable of. Over the past three years with Jim Bob Cooter as QB coach and then offensive coordinator, Stafford has evolved as a QB. During that span he has put up 64.5% completion rate and 78 TDs to just 35 ints in 48 games. For comparison, he had thrown 52 interceptions with a 60.6% completion rate in the previous three seasons.
It has come with a loss of some of the high volume stats he used to have but I do believe there is a chance for Stafford to put the best of both versions of himself together at some point in the next couple of years. It will help that the Lions awful run game from 2016 should be better with the return of Ameer Abdullah. I also like the addition of Golladay and hopefully we can see a more consistent Tate/Jones as well. I expect several more top twelve seasons for Stafford.
11.) Kirk Cousins
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 19.1 (6th)
HC/OC: Jay Gruden / Matt Cavanaugh
Top Receivers: Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson
Cousins has been every bit as good as Stafford the last couple of seasons, even a little better. Why does he find himself lower in my rankings? For me the considerable turnover in receivers plus a new offensive coordinator has me a little wary. Just a little bit. Jay Gruden undoubtedly played a big part in Cousin’s success, but I’m sure former OC Sean McVay played a big part as well. McVay’s replacement Matt Cavanaugh has been around the game a very long time but with mixed results. So that coupled with the loss of Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon keeps him below Stafford.
The Redskins did bring in some new weapons as well. Most notably Terrelle Pryor was given a surprisingly cheap one year prove it deal. I think he is a great addition but he could also be gone after the season. Perhaps just as noteworthy, the Redskins hope to have a full season of Josh Doctson in 2017. Doctson missed basically the entire year dealing with an achilles injury. He caught just two passes. On paper, the team should be able to continue being productive without missing a beat.
12.) Andy Dalton
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 16.4 (20th)
HC/OC: Marvin Lewis / Ken Zampese
Top Receivers: A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, John Ross, Tyler Boyd, Giovani Bernard
I think I have a love/hate relationship with Dalton. After being among the highest fantasy analysts on him the previous two seasons, he is given two top weapons and I’ve...kind of cooled off on him? I can see the cases both for and against Dalton. On one hand he missed a total of 20 games combined from A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard. That is very similar to the narrative I used in support of Dalton after the 2014 season when, sure enough, he got a healthy 2015 from those guys and had an excellent season. At this point though it’s hard to justify an expectation of a full season from Eifert and to a lesser extent, A.J. Green.
Along with the addition of two new offensive weapons, there were also positive takeaways from last year. Dalton actually bettered his INT% to a career best 1.4%. He also had a career low in TD% at 3.2. That number was even lower than his rookie season (3.9%) and even without considering the depleted receiving corps he had last year, that would be expected to improve. So what is keeping Dalton from being higher? He finished 5th in 2013 and was 7th in PPG through 13 weeks of 2015. You know what? I have convinced myself. I’m making last minute changes to this tier and raising Dalton up higher. I don’t really see Dalton ever putting up truly elite numbers but top ten numbers? He’s done it in the past with a healthy and talented corps and he should do it again.
13.) Carson Wentz
Age: 24/25
2016 PPG: 13.5 (28th)
HC/OC: Doug Pederson / Frank Reich
Top Receivers: Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith
The first thing that probably jumps out about Wentz is his 2016 points per game. At 13.5 and 28th best for a QB last year, it is far lower than anyone else on the list to this point. That is part of what makes dynasty wonderful, we try to project improvement going forward! There is also more to consider with Wentz. Through the first five weeks of the season, Wentz was more or less matching Dak Prescott in fantasy production. Dak had 17.3 PPG (5 games) and Wentz had 16.9 (4 games). After those first four games the Eagles best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson, had his 10 game suspension upheld. From weeks 6 through 15 Wentz had just 11.8 PPG. When Johnson returned, Wentz again stepped up his game with 15.4 PPG over the final two games (one admittedly against Cowboys backups).
Assuming Lane can stay away from the PEDs, that gives us a big reason to be optimistic. Another is the signings of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to bolster a very shallow WR corps and give Jordan Matthews much needed help. The team also drafted 6’4” Mack Hollins and deep threat specialist Shelton Gibson. It is safe to say 143 targets will not be wasted on the likes of Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor again. Taking these two things into consideration, a top 20 finish is absolutely expected for Wentz and top 15 seems reasonable as well. It is not yet clear whether he will develop into a star but there is definitely talent and that puts him as high as he is on my list.
14.) Ryan Tannehill
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 15.1 (23rd)
HC/OC: Adam Gase / Clyde Christensen
Top Receivers: Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas
Tannehill had an interesting season. He had career highs in completion %, TD% and ANY/A. Those numbers would indicate a breakout fantasy season. That was not the case. Tannehill had his lowest yards per game and highest INT% and also threw just 389 times in 13 games. In fact the Dolphins as a whole ranked dead last in offensive plays per game, which was fairly uncharacteristic of an Adam Gase offense. By ranking Tannehill 14th, I am expecting the good statistics to be repeated while also seeing the Dolphins become a higher volume offense. They don’t even necessarily have to be a more pass heavy offense, just more plays. If they could go from 32nd to 20th, that would have been nearly 100 extra plays in 2016. That would go a long way in improving Tannehill’s numbers.
Tannehill was also beginning to show signs of a much more fantasy relevant passer before going down with a partial ACL tear. Over his final 5 games he had a 71.0% completion rate and 11 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. He was the 13th best QB in PPG during that span. It’s also no secret that I still like Devante Parker a lot and think he has the potential to be a true WR1. Pair that with Jarvis Landry being one of the best possession receivers in the game and the elite speed of Kenny Stills (3rd in yards per catch min 50 targets) and there is a lot to like about this passing game. The trade for Julius Thomas also made perfect sense as Julius broke out under the tutelage of Adam Gase in Denver. He is a perfect end zone target for Tanny IF he can stay healthy. Don’t be surprised when Tannehill has a career year in 2017.
15.) Tom Brady
Age: 40
2016 PPG: 21.3 (5th)
HC/OC: Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels
Top Receivers: GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Dwayne Allen, James White
At age 40, can Brady be counted on for anything more than one year at a time? Absolutely not. In fact, even assuming 2017 won’t be the year he falls off is a risk. That said, it is a risk I am willing to take. It is always a struggle to rank an older elite talent in dynasty but for just 2017, Brady could be a difference maker for any team. Brady of course missed four games in 2016 but when he came back he was the same old Brady. In fact he set a career best in INT% (the all-time record in fact) and his highest TD% since his 2010 MVP season. He continued to throw for nearly 300 yards a game and his 28:2 TD:INT was just absurd.
As if that wasn’t enough, barring an age decline 2017 could somehow be even better. Gronk was active for just 3 full games and the addition of Brandin Cooks gives this team speed that it didn’t have before. I have an incredibly hard time imagining how much better things can get for Brady but another 300 yards/game 40 TD season is very possible.
16.) Ben Roethlisberger
Age: 35
2016 PPG: 18.5 (7th)
HC/OC: Mike Tomlin / Todd Haley
Top Receivers: Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Le’Veon Bell, Juju Smith-Schuster, Sammie Coates
After so many injuries - Big Ben has played all 16 games just three times in his thirteen year career - Roethlisberger feels more likely to hit his decline this year or next than Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I could be 100% wrong on that but Roethlisberger himself has already admitted to contemplating retirement. When on the field? Ben has never been better than the last three seasons and the Steelers have repeatedly added weapons to his offense. In 2015 he had a personal best of 328.2 pass yards per game, which was the 3rd most ever. Of course he only played in 12 games. Last year he also saw a marked increase in his TD% to 5.7. However his yards per game fell as deep threat Martavis Bryant was suspended for the entire year, Sammie Coates was relegated to special teams only after emerging early on thanks to a broken hand. Le’veon Bell missed four games. Markus Wheaton & Ladarius Green missed most of the season as well. That put role players like Eli Rogers and Cobi Hamilton into far more significant roles than the Steelers would have liked.
For the 2017 season, Martavis Bryant has been reinstated, Sammie Coates is healthy and looking to build on his early breakout and of course the team drafted Juju Smith-Schuster in the 2nd. After the Steelers offense finished 10th in points and 7th in yards (which was fantastic considering how much time expected contributors missed), the team is poised to rebound to 2015 numbers where they were 4th in points and 3rd in yards. Big Ben’s injury history absolutely scares me and as a result I don’t look at him any differently than Tom Brady as a dynasty asset despite the age difference. That said, he is another QB that can win championships in 2017.
17.) Drew Brees
Age: 38
2016 PPG: 21.6 (3rd)
HC/OC: Sean Payton / Pete Carmichael
Top Receivers: Mike Thomas, Willie Snead, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn, Coby Fleener
You’ll notice right away that Drew Brees PPG was higher in 2016 than the previous two QBs. So why when I have already said I’m not counting on them for more than one year is Brees lower? The answer is simple. Those two teams are gaining significant pieces for their pass game while the loss of Brandin Cooks (who of course goes to the aforementioned Tom Brady) is not made up for with Kamara and Ginn. The Saints are also set to run more on paper with the additions of Kamara and Adrian Peterson, but I’ve believed that in the past and it hasn’t really been true.
Brees has yet to really lose a step as he led the league in pass yards an unprecedented 7th time and 3rd consecutively. He also hit 30+ touchdowns for the 9th straight year and hit the 70% completion rate mark for the third time. Brees and Payton have been a perfect match over the last decade. It’s hard to say how much the loss of Cooks will affect the team. He led them in receiving yards and yards per catch although it was clear that 6’3” Michael Thomas was emerging as the WR1 by season’s end. Ted Ginn keeps the speed on the offense but at 32 years old he has certainly lost a step and isn’t as fast as Cooks, nor was he ever as good as a total receiver. Coby Fleener was also a disappointment in his first year with the Saints and they definitely need him to step up in 2017 for Brees to repeat his numbers. I have my concerns about Brees but he has a very good chance to rattle off yet another top 5 season.
18.) Blake Bortles
Age: 25
2016 PPG: 17.8 (13th)
HC/OC: Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett
Top Receivers: Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook, T.J. Yeldon
Ah Blake Bortles. One of the most enigmatic fantasy QBs. Is he or isn’t he a franchise QB? 2016 saw a slight improvement in completion percentage, and career bests in INT % and sack %. On the whole however, the season was a clear step backward and Bortles was far more inefficient and saw significant decreases in passing yards and touchdowns. The Jaguars also surprised many by hiring a HC and OC that were already part of the previous failed regime.
So what are the positives? When Doug Marrone took over as HC, Bortles had two of his best games all season. In both he had a completion rate better than 60% and threw for over 300 yards without any interceptions. It’s an extremely small sample size but gives a glimmer of hope to Bortles truthers that all is not lost. He also has a very talented group of receivers that was improved with the draft pick of Dede Westbrook. Leonard Fournette may not be much of a pass catcher and will surely hurt the volume of Bortles but for a team that was bottom ten in rush attempts, yards and touchdowns the presence of Fournette will do more good than bad. Bortles is very far from a sure thing but I lean more towards the positive side. (Disclaimer - there may be some subconscious bias as I am a Jaguars fan)
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