Precursor: Thanks to those who voted! I asked if people wanted rankings or individual player pieces and you chose rankings. I still hope to get to more article style writing later on in the year. These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
Tier 1
The top tier of quarterbacks consists includes the best of the best. These guys have proven production and generally both a high floor and high ceiling. They all should have 3+ years of top production remaining. I don’t generally value QBs too highly in a standard 1QB league but I would value these players at a 1st+. In 2QB, probably about three 1sts.
1.) Andrew Luck
Age: 27/28
2016 PPG: 21.3 (4th)
HC/OC: Chuck Pagano / Rob Chudzinski
Top Receivers: T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Jack Doyle
First the bad - I struggled with this one. Luck finished just 11th in ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) last year. After T.Y. Hilton his receivers are talented but unproven (add Dorsett and Kamar Aiken as the next two after the trio above). He missed time in 2015 with a shoulder injury, missed a game in 2016 due to a concussion and is currently recuperating from offseason shoulder surgery (He is not expected to miss any regular season games). So there is definitely a bit of an injury history with Luck that doesn’t get talked about often.
So what makes Andrew Luck my #1 dynasty QB? Despite a not so great corps of receivers, he did finish 4th in PPG last year and Moncrief and Doyle may get better. Luck has dealt with a poor offensive line the past few years and while it is still not great, the Colts have their starting 5 from the end of last season returning. Three of those players were rookies last year. That kind of stability could go a long way. There is definitely room to continue improving the receivers and offensive line. I see several more top 5 seasons in Luck’s future and likely some #1 seasons as well.
2.) Aaron Rodgers
Age: 33/34
2016 PPG: 23.9 (1st)
HC/OC: Mike McCarthy / Edgar Bennett
Top Receivers: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett, Ty Montgomery
One of the greatest QBs to ever play the game, is it time to start holding Rodgers’ age against him? I say yes but only to a very small extent. You never know when the decline may come. We have been spoiled by the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and even Brett Favre playing at a very high level in their late 30s in recent years, but that simply doesn’t happen with everyone and to assume it will with Rodgers simply because he is an all-time great would be a mistake.
Rogers was very good but not great in 2015. He had a 16 game stretch from the 6th game of 2015 to the 5th game of 2016 where he had 600 pass attempts but just a 58% completion rate, 3700 yards and 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. That is a fine player but well below what we’ve come to expect from Rodgers. In the final 14 games of last year including playoffs, Rodgers was playing as good as he ever had. His numbers during those games? 66.8% completion rate, 4262 pass yards and a 39:5 TD:INT ratio. There’s no reason to think he’ll stop putting up those top QB numbers again anytime soon.
If there is one area of concern to be aware about it is that prior to the 2016 season, the team surprisingly cut G Josh Sitton. Following the season they let go of their other long time Guard T.J. Lang. He was replaced by aging former stud Jahri Evans who will be 34 before the season starts. Rodgers is definitely a QB that makes the job of his offensive lineman easier and they still have an above average line overall but losing such quality players in back-to-back years is worth noting. Rodgers will decline eventually but all signs point to at least a couple more years at the top of the QB rankings.
3.) Russell Wilson
Age: 28/29
2016 PPG: 17.1 (16th)
HC/OC: Pete Carroll / Darrell Bevell
Top Receivers: Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, C.J. Prosise
I have to admit, I looove Russell Wilson. He is a very different QB from Andrew Luck as well. For starters 2016 was his most passing attempts yet at 546. Andrew Luck had 545 in one less game and averaged 604 passes in his three prior full seasons. Wilson’s value comes in part due to his very high floor. He has finished 11th or better in total points in all five of his seasons. This was in large part thanks to never missing a game. Up until last year when he dealt with a bad ankle he was also aided by above average mobility. Assuming his ankle is 100%, I do expect some more running again in 2017.
Outside of the lack of mobility in 2016, Wilson’s numbers declined in part thanks to an abnormally low TD%. Through 7 games, Wilson was throwing more than ever but had just 5 touchdowns. Over the final 11 games including two playoff games, Wilson threw 20 touchdowns. This represented a 5.5% TD rate, much closer to his career average of 6.1% before 2016. My point here is that I don’t see a repeat of 2016’s stats and that Russ should continue to put up top 10 or better seasons going forward. I also think his receivers are underrated. He may not have a T.Y. Hilton but Doug Baldwin has emerged as an excellent player. The rest of his receivers all have very different qualities from one another (throw rookie Amara Darboh in that mix as well) that will complement each other nicely.
The Seahawks offensive line was genuinely horrendous in 2016. They signed Luke Joeckel (a draft bust for sure but he does actually represent a likely upgrade for Seattle), drafted Ethan Pocic 58th overall and are desperately hoping for improvement from 2016 1st rounder Germain Ifedi who finished 72nd of 72 qualifying Guards according to PFF player grades. They still have a ways to go to fix this line long term but they should be a little better this year and that will only help.
4.) Cam Newton
Age: 28
2016 PPG: 17.9 (11th)
HC/OC: Ron Rivera / Mike Shula
Top Receivers: Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin, Curtis Samuel, Christian McCaffrey
In 2015, Cam had his best season to date with 3800 pass yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 630 rush yards and 10 rush TDs to go along with it. I’d go so far to say it was one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. Everything that went right in ‘15 went wrong in ‘16 as he had career worsts in pass TD %, completion % and rush yards while tying his previous low of 5 rushing TDs. The fact that he was still the 11th best fantasy QB in PPG was pretty impressive. Further hurting his value, he also had offseason shoulder surgery much like Andrew Luck.
The Panthers wasted no time trying to make sure Cam would not have another “poor” season. The Panthers picked three times in the first two rounds. They drafted RB Christian McCaffrey, a WR hybrid in Curtis Samuel and G Taylor Moton. They also spent a surprisingly high amount of money on FA Matt Kalil who at best could have been described as inconsistent during his time with the Vikings. I’m on record stating I love the fit of both McCaffrey and Samuel and I think they will be huge for the Panthers passing game.
Cam gets unfairly tagged as an injury prone player. He does play physical and takes hits thanks to how often he runs. He does play banged up from time to time and I think that played a part in his poor 2016 season. That said, he has played in 93 of a possible 96 regular season games and 99 of 102 games including playoffs. There is always a little recency bias when a player is coming off a disappointing year. You can take advantage of that by acquiring Cam this offseason!
5.) Matt Ryan
Age: 32
2016 PPG: 22.0 (2nd)
HC/OC: Dan Quinn / Steve Sarkisian
Top Receivers: Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu
I hesitated a bit before including Matt Ryan as the last player in my first tier. He was never a top 5 QB before last year and will he be able to maintain the success that came with Kyle Shanahan? I’m not 100% certain but I do think he will enjoy several more years of quality production. For starters Matt Ryan averaged 4500 passing yards and 27 pass TDs in the five years prior to his 2016 breakout campaign. Even with some dropoff he is probably a top 5 QB.
He also has an excellent supporting cast around him. That starts with one of the best WRs in the game in Julio Jones. I also think while Devonta Freeman’s ability as a pass catcher is appreciated, the RB duo’s value to the passing game combined is a little underrated. Along with Tevin Coleman, the two put up a receiving line of 85-883-5 last year. Throw in Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and promising young TE Austin Hooper and you have a team that is built to continue putting up big offensive numbers.
Tier 2
The next 4 players represent the future of the QB position in dynasty. These young players already have a good season or two under their belt with room to grow. I would put their worth at a mid to late 1st in 1QB and 2 to 2.5 1sts in 2QB.
6.) Jameis Winston
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 16.9 (17th)
HC/OC: Dirk Koetter / Todd Monken
Top Receivers: Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin
Yes, Winston is my favorite of the second and third year QBs. For starters he is the youngest at just 23 years old. His age adjusted production is just phenomenal. There are 6 QBs that have thrown for 3000 yards at age 22 or younger. Jameis is the only one to do it at 21. There are 3 QBs to throw 4000+ yards at 22 or younger. Jameis has done it twice. He is also one of nine players to throw for 20+ TDs at 22 or younger and again holds the sole distinction of doing it twice as well as the record for most touchdowns by a player that young with 28 last year.
That brings us to 2017. Coming off a 4000 yard 28 TD season the Bucs gave Winston upgrades at every position. It starts with the big FA signing of Desean Jackson. DJax and his speed are a perfect complement to Mike Evans. In the draft they took O.J. Howard 19th overall and he should come in and start right away or at least make a very nice duo with Cameron Brate. In the third they took Chris Godwin who is one of my favorite receivers in the draft and will have an opportunity to be the long time #2 for the Bucs. They weren’t done though as they added a quality pass catching RB in Jeremy McNichols in the 5th round as well. It is not unrealistic to forecast a jump into the top tier after this season.
7.) Marcus Mariota
Age: 23/24
2016 PPG: 17.7 (14th)
HC/OC: Mike Mularkey / Terry Robiskie
Top Receivers: Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, Demarco Murray, Taywan Taylor
Much like with Jameis Winston's Bucs, the Titans have focused on giving their young franchise QB as many weapons as possible. Last year they focused on the run game and the offensive line with DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry and Jack Conklin. This year it was all about the pass game with Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith all in the top 100 picks. Mariota had a fantastic sophomore campaign, improving both his TD% and INT% to numbers that were actually better than Winston’s. The flipside is that most notably Mariota is recovering from a broken leg and missed multiple games as a rookie with two separate sprained MCLs. Mariota’s smaller frame has led to some worry about his ability to hold up over a full season and the injuries certainly haven’t helped.
The biggest piece missing for Mariota was a true #1 WR and the Titans hope to have found that in Corey Davis. Davis, Rishard Matthews and Taywan Taylor make a very talented trio although it may take a year for the rookies to really hit their stride. At tight end Delanie Walker is older but I did really like the pick of Jonnu Smith. Really the only thing limiting Mariota is that he won’t throw nearly as much as Winston - the Titans finished 28th in pass attempts last year, content to run the ball as much as possible with Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The added receivers will improve that number for sure, but don’t expect a pass heavy offense in the next couple of years.
8.) Dak Prescott
Age: 24
2016 PPG: 17.9 (12th)
HC/OC: Jason Garrett / Scott Linehan
Top Receivers: Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley
Prescott is coming off what I would consider the greatest rookie QB season of all-time. Adjusted for era Dan Marino’s rookie campaign may be better but the point stands! Dak was phenomenal with numbers that rookie QBs just don’t put up like a 23:4 TD:INT ratio and a 67.8% completion rate. Where can he go from here? About that...I worry about his ceiling in the short term because this offense is built for its power run game. While Dez is still very good, he hasn’t been quite as good the last two years and the rest of the receivers are lacking. At some point, hopefully with next year’s free agency and draft class they will give the passing game some newer younger weapons.
Dak reminds me a lot of a less mobile Russell Wilson. Both came in as a mid-round draft picks that were not expected to start right away. For different reasons, they did and put up extremely strong seasons in doing so. Aided by a good offense all around them, the two QBs had some of the normal pressures of being a rookie QB starter taken off of them. Much like Wilson, Dak will be very capable of multiple top ten seasons in the short term but the team is going to remain in the bottom ten for passing attempts (they were 30th in 2016). It’s a matter of floor vs ceiling with Dak and I do believe his floor will stay extremely high. That consistency he showed as a rookie is extremely valuable.
9.) Derek Carr
Age: 26
2016 PPG: 18.2 (9th)
HC/OC: Jack Del Rio / Todd Downing
Top Receivers: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook
The last promising young QB of this tier is Derek Carr. Carr was the most successful of the four in 2016 but is also the oldest and is coming off a broken leg. Nor did the Raiders invest so heavily in the passing game. While they have nice receivers it isn’t quite as sexy as Mariota or Winston. Adding Marshawn Lynch may mean a decrease in pass attempts but Lynch was always a decent receiver and should help more than he hurts. The Raiders also have a phenomenal pass blocking line. The line allowed just 18 sacks. That was just one of six times in the past five years that a team allowed 20 or fewer sacks.
Looking at Carr’s weapons, Amari Cooper has been a curious player. He is certainly extremely talented but he has not been favored in the Red Zone. Over the last two seasons, the Raiders have passed in the red zone 146 times. Cooper has seen just 20 of those targets with only 8 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile Seth Roberts has 29 red zone targets on far fewer total targets. He’s also been more successful with 9 red zone touchdowns. Is this just a two year statistical oddity? For Carr to be his best I think it needs to change, and it likely will. I also hope the Raiders will be more aggressive acquiring offensive talent in the next couple of seasons. Crabtree turns 30 in September and Cook/Lynch are even older.
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