This was a highly-anticipated rookie wide receiver class. It was full of both studs at the top and just a deep class overall. This is proven by the fact that six WRs were drafted in Round 1 and 16 in the top 100. Compare that to the two previous years. Two and thirteen in 2019 and two and ten in 2018. Furthermore, this year’s rookies beyond the first round are making an instant impact. Chase Claypool? A 4 TD game and highlights every single game. Even further down, guys that weren’t even highly thought of like Gabriel Davis, Quintez Cephus, and Darnell Mooney have all started and looked decent while doing so.
I wanted to take a dive into all these rookie WRs, and see who looks like a star and who is being forgotten and who is struggling. The plan is to go through every single rookie WR and then give updated rankings. To start, we will look at the six first round WRs in the class of 2020. We will go in order of when they were drafted.
Henry Ruggs III, Raiders, 12th Overall, Drafted WR1
In three games so far, Ruggs has been pretty much exactly what was expected, but even better. An elite speed blazing deep threat. Ruggs made his mark quickly with a Week 1 first quarter 45 yard catch where he went down just shy of the end zone. He then got hurt in Week 2. When he came back in Week 5, he helped the Raiders stun the Chiefs. He had two catches in that game. One for 46 yards which set up an early 3-0 lead, and later a 72-yard touchdown. That makes three catches of 45+ yards on just 11 targets. That has been good for an INSANE 16.1 yards per target and 29.5 yards per catch. He has been the Mike Wallace / Desean Jackson type player we expected but even better. In Mike Wallace’s rookie season he put up a 39-756-6 line with a league-best 19.6 yards per catch and a robust 10.5 yards per target.
Ruggs has an ADOT of 21.5. It is no surprise that the Raiders are 3-0 with him and 0-2 in the games he missed. His speed is unreal and completely changes up the offense. Ruggs hasn’t had the overall production that some of his fellows have had, but to have anything less than a glowing impression of him thus far.
Conclusion: Excellent start, dynamic for the offense. Fantasy-wise they need to prove they can continue the deep ball success rate.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos, 15th Overall, WR2
Jeudy has been “quiet” so far with just one touchdown and no more than 62 yards in a game. I put quiet in quotation marks because on the flip side he has less than 55 yards just once and a solid 8.1 yards per target. Factor in the QB play of three QBs in five games, and at best only one of them is good, and wow. All of a sudden with context, Jeudy’s numbers are really good. Oh yeah, how could I forget that Courtland Sutton only played 31 snaps and suddenly Jeudy was facing CB1s without even having a preseason?
Conclusion: With context, I think Jeudy has done an excellent job. If there is a buy-low WR among the first-round rookies, Jeudy is it. If he gets a franchise QB, whether that is Lock or someone else, he will be a WR2 or better for years to come.
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys, 17th Overall, WR3
I can keep this one short. Lamb has been nothing short of incredible. Despite the Cowboys already having Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in place, Lamb is on pace for 93-1,386-6 through five games. He has a phenomenal 72.5% catch rate and 10.8 yards per target. He looks like the league’s next superstar. Unfortunately, Dak’s injury is likely to bring him down a level. Long-term the sky is the limit.
Conclusion: I was impressed with the first two WRs drafted. Lamb is easily better than those two. It’s hard to put into words just how impressive Lamb has been to start his career. Best rookie since OBJ? The league’s next superstar WR.
Jalen Reagor, Eagles, 21st Overall, WR4
FINALLY, a disappointment. This would be the public sentiment on Reagor when compared to his peers. The reality is something different. Reagor had a 55-yard catch in his debut on four targets. In his second game, Carson Wentz was pretty awful. Reagor, however, caught all four of his targets for 41 yards. He then tore a UCL in his thumb which put him on the IR for at least six weeks. To date this has left him with a 5-96-0 line on 8 targets. That is an excellent 12.0 yards per target. It is a very small sample size of course, but with Reagor getting lost in the crowded room of playmaking rookies, we need to realize that thus far, he has shown he is every bit as capable as the rest of them.
Conclusion: Acquire Reagor now, you might not have another window of opportunity when he comes back.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings, 22nd Overall, WR5
If there is a negative for Jefferson, it would be that he has been inconsistent so far. Jefferson most definitely had the least impressive debut of any rookie we’ve covered yet. In a high-scoring Week 1 game, Jefferson managed just 2-23-0 on three targets. Week 2’s numbers didn’t exactly impress, but this is another case of context being needed. Kirk Cousins was horrendous and the Colts absolutely shut down the Vikings offense. Cousins completed just 11 of 26 passes for 113 yards. Considering that, the fact that Jefferson caught all three of his targets for a team-best 44 yards is almost as insane as his week that would follow. When Jefferson caught 7 passes for 175 yards and a score in Week 3, the 175 yards represented 37.8% of his team’s yards. His 44 yards in Week 2 were still over 25% of the Vikings offensive yards and in hindsight, a clear appetizer for what was to come.
Jefferson had another big week in Week 4, going over 100 yards for the second straight week. The Seahawks managed to contain him in Week 5 as Adam Thielen shined. When looking at the total production from this up-and-down five weeks, his 19-371-1 and 14.8 yards per target are incredibly impressive.
Update: This was written before Week 6. Jefferson had another MONSTER game 9-166-2 but both targets he didn’t catch went for interceptions. Perhaps some rookie miscues are a factor, but that won’t stop me from praising Jefferson.
Conclusion: Certainly looks the part as a Stefon Diggs replacement. Catching 76% of passes despite a 12.9 ADOT. It’s hard to put him anywhere but WR2 among the first round.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers, 25th Overall, WR6
In Aiyuk we finally have a receiver that is merely meeting the expectations of a first-rounder and not exceeding them to a great degree. Aiyuk missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury. With Deebo Samuel also out, Aiyuk immediately stepped in as a starter against the lowly Jets in Week 2. He wasn’t asked to do much and Jimmy Garoppolo also got injured in this game. So his 2-21-0 line on three targets was fine. With another easy matchup in Week 3, Aiyuk had a great game. He had a team-best 70 rec yards and also scored a rushing touchdown. That put him at 101 yards from scrimmage for the day. In Week 4 against the Eagles, he struggled as a receiver but managed yet another rushing touchdown. In Week 5 Jimmy Garoppolo looked lost against the Dolphins and Aiyuk managed to tie Kittle for a team-best 44 rec yards on two fewer targets.
It has been a huge struggle for the 49ers to get healthy. There have been exactly 0 games with a healthy Jimmy G, Mostert, Deebo and Kittle. In Week 3 all four of those offensive playmakers were out and that is when Aiyuk was forced to step up and be the guy and responded with 101 yards and a touchdown, all the while surrounded by backups.
Update: In Week 6 the 49ers were the healthiest we have seen them. Aiyuk was relatively quiet but did get a goal line two-yard touchdown. Even in this quiet game he managed to produce.
Conclusion: The 49ers have faced incredible adversity as a team so far. That is why I can say at worst, Aiyuk has at least met expectations. His 7.0 yards per target is not good, but he has made up for it with some big rushing/lateral pass plays. Anyone passing judgment on the 49ers offense right now is a fool, to be blunt. Week 6 promises to be the first week where everyone is fully healthy. Give them a few more weeks to get running on all cylinders and don’t be surprised if Aiyuk looks even better.
