Chasing The Targets: Week 6

I was going to try to get this edition out before the waiver period for most leagues. However, I'm also currently working on applying to business schools and that took priority. I know, I know. How could anything take priority over fantasy football!? Well, the good news is I'm here to write this now. Let's get started.

Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

Age: 20

Targets:6

Target increase from the previous week:2

Snap Share: 82.3%

Snap Share increase from the previous week: 11.2 %

Ok, so I know that Juju Smith-Schuster is not sitting out there on any dynasty waiver wires. Or if he is, you really need to find yourself a new league to play in. I also know that the Steelers' offense has been such a mess that Ben Roethlisberger is talking about retirement. However, here we have a young receiver who just saw his highest snap share of the season. Did I mention that he's seen at least one red zone target every week since week two? 

Despite seeing fewer targets than Martavis Bryant, Juju has out-snapped him two of the past three weeks. Additionally, want to take a guess about who has seen more red zone targets over that time? If you guessed Juju, congrats you passed! Now is the time to buy the 20-year old before everyone realizes that he's the becoming the true WR2 on this team.

Verdict: Send offers of Mid-Late 2nd

Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings
Age:25
Targets:6
Target increase from the previous week: 4
Snap Share: 67.1 %
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 49.2 %

Was it fairly predictable that Jerick McKinnon would be more involved in the Vikings offense once Dalvin Cook was done for the season? Sure. Did anyone besides his truthers really expect him to play over 30% more snaps than Latavius Murray though? Probably not.

McKinnon had a great day both through the air and the ground. I know the debate rages on about whether he was really effective on the ground or not. I'm not here to have that debate. Rather, I want to chat about the fact that he was tied for the team lead in targets.

That likely has something to do with Case Keenum taking over for Sam Bradford mid game. Case Keenum figures to continue to be the starter while the Vikings get their quarterback situation figured out, and he's not exactly known for pushing the ball down the field.  In fact, the Vikings as a team attempted only 3 passes that qualified as deep according to pro-football-reference during the entire game. This bodes very well for continued pass-catching success for McKinnon. In more good news, Dalvin Cook may be back next season but McKinnon will be a free agent anyway. With a good showing this season he could easily work himself into a larger role on another team.

Verdict: Send offers of Late 2nd-Early 3rd

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, New York Jets
Age:25
Targets:8
Target increase from the previous week: 4
Snap Share: 83.0%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 5.9 %

There was a time that those of in dynasty circles talked about Austin Sefarian-Jenkins the same way we now talk about O.J Howard or Evan Engram. He was supposed to be that good. Unfortunately, he ran into some issues with alcohol that ultimately led to a DUI and suspension from the league.

Eventually, the Buccaneers decided they had enough and cut him loose. Thankfully for Sefarian-Jenkins, the Jets were willing to a take a flier. It seems to be paying off. It's hard not to root for a guy who so sincerely admitted that he had a problem, and really seems dedicated to turning his life around. Additionally,  while there may not be supremely talented pass catches on the Jets,  he may be the most talented one from an athletic standpoint.

Since returning from the suspension he's seen a steady diet of targets and has watched his snap share climb from 76.2% in week three to 83.0 % this past week. Even more encouraging is in the three weeks he's been active, he's seen two red zone targets and both have come inside the ten-yard line.

Verdict: I had a hard time finding recent trades involving ASJ, but if you need a TE I'd trade pretty much any 2018 3rd for him.

Nick O'Leary, Buffalo Bills
Age:25
Targets:6
Target increase from the previous week:6
Snap Share: 84.3%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 31.0 %

This is another one that is clearly the result of an injury. Charles Clay went down with a torn meniscus and sprained MCL in this game. I'm sure everyone joins me in wishing him a very speedy recovery. However, in the meantime, someone has to catch passes in Buffalo.

For those keeping track at home, Jordan Matthews has been dealing with an injury as well. He may be back after the bye week, but right now Buffalo's top pass catchers are Zay Jones...and likely Nick O'Leary. Did I mention that in the five weeks since the season began Buffalo has targeted their tight end 28% of the time? 

I don't think O'Leary is going to step directly into the volume that Clay had, but his targets game and  share totals certainly indicate that he's someone worth watching. There are plenty of you who can do worse out there, especially since this season it seems like every week another starting tight end is going down. I just wish his bye week hadn't come exactly as we were trying to assess his role.

Verdict: Pick up as end of bench stash

Ed Dickson, Carolina Panthers
Age: 30
Targets: 5
Target increase from last week:1
Snap Share: 100%
Snap Share increase from previous week: 1.6%

This is the second time this season that Ed Dickson has seen 100% of the snap share. That's...very impressive. Of course, just like some of the other guys this week a lot of that has to do with an injury to a player ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, it's important to note who can take advantage of these opportunities when they arise.

Since Greg Olsen's injury in week 3, Dickson has seen 10 targets. On those 10 targets, he has a line of 9-245-0. Talk about being hyper-efficient! However, we should keep in mind that the bulk of those yards came in his 175-yard effort against the Lions this past week. He's very unlikely to repeat that.

I also believe we need to keep in mind that Devin Funchess played tight end in college. He's really grown in the offense since Olsen went down too. Funchess has put up an 18-201-3 line since Olsen's injury in week three. With touchdown catches like the one Funchess made last week, he's finally living up to the "fun" part of his name.

Dickson is certainly worth monitoring after putting up a 62-yard effort followed by his 175-yard effort, but I worry about his long-term value in dynasty leagues. We are already entering week six, and Olsen is expected back in week ten. It's not like we are talking about the performance of a young highly rated prospect, but rather someone who has only broken 300 yards once in his eight-year career. That's not to say Dickson can't be a valuable piece for you while Olsen is out, but I wouldn't over-invest.

Verdict: Pick up off waivers

Recap from last week:

Aldrick Robinson:Marquise Goodwin was able to play this week and Robinson only saw one target. Can safely remove from your radars unless something were to happen to Goodwin again.

Ricardo Louis:Continues to see a high amount of targets and snap share. Put up 71 yards on eight targets last week. I hope you listened about picking him up.

Adam Humphries: Saw a snap share increase but target decrease. Still caught three balls for 51 yards. Still a solid PPR option in deep leagues.

Tyler Kroft: Reports are that Tyler Eifert is getting season ending surgery. Kroft is continuing to see increased snap share and red zone targets. Another guy I hope you picked up last week.

That's it for this week! As always, if you have any questions feel free to message me on twitter @RekedFantasy.

Until next time,

Rek

* This article borrows stats from www.pro-football-reference.com, and playerprofiler.com

Chasing The Targets: Week 5

I've been trying to figure out what I wanted to do in-season for a bit. Then this idea came to me somewhat as a cousin to the "Breaking Down The Targets series" I did over the summer.  Just to clarify one thing-this advice is purely for dynasty leagues and those with generally deep benches.

I'm going to stick with five or under per article otherwise this article would get way too long and we know not everyone has the attention span for that (myself included). I hope you all enjoy it!

Aldrick Robinson, San Francisco 49ers
Age: 28
Targets:12
Target increase from the previous week: 8
Snap Share: 86.9 %
Snap Share increase from the previous week:  52.7 %

Is it really notable when a guy who is 28 and has never had 400 yards receiving sees this many targets? It may be when the depth chart is as thin as the 49ers and the guy ahead of him-Marquise Goodwin-has suffered four concussions in the past 14 months.Additionally, Robinson has a similar athletic profile to someone else Kyle Shanahan made successful last year-Taylor Gabriel. Robinson was actually on Shanny's Falcons offense last year and had a 100 yard game in Week 15. Perhaps Shanahan is trying to give him a chance to recapture that in San Francisco. I would be wary of adding him though since he did only manage to catch three of the twelve targets that came his way.

Verdict: Watch closely this week

Ricardo Louis, Cleveland Browns
Age:23
Targets:9
Target increase from the previous week:3
Snap Share: 86.2%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 12.2 %

Next up we find a young receiver who has seen his snap share increase every week this season:

Week 1: 24.2 %

Week 2: 45.1 %

Week 3: 74.0 %

Week 4: 86.2 %

That's certainly encouraging. One thing to watch out for here is that four of his targets came when Kevin Hogan was put into the game for a single drive, replacing the struggling Deshone Kizer. That included his biggest catch of the day for 31 yards. Still, this a team that needs to find playmakers in the worst way. It was supposed to be Rashard Higgins who emerged from the Corey Coleman injury, but it may just be Lewis who is his way to fantasy relevance.

Verdict:  End of the bench stash in leagues with 26+ roster spots

Adam Humphries, Tampa Bay Bucaaneers
Age: 24
Targets: 7
Target decrease from the previous week: 3
Snap Share: 67.2 %
Snap Share decrease from previous week:  6.4 %

Why am I highlighting someone who went down in targets and snaps? Probably because despite the fact that he only saw 3 targets in week 2, Humpries has 20 targets over three weeks. It seems like we as a fantasy community wrote him off because of DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and O.J Howard arriving in town. I'm not sure that was wise. Winston clearly likes him.  He's unlikely to ever have a huge week because he's more of a possession guy, but he's worth monitoring in PPR leagues as a safety outlet for the Bucs.

Verdict: End of bench stash in leagues with 26+ roster spots-acquire cheaply if you can in Best Ball leagues

Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 25
Targets: 7
Target increase from last week: 3
Snap Share: 82.8
Snap Share decrease from last week: 15.6

Tyler Kroft's snap share may have been down from last week but it's up significantly from the first two weeks in the season when he was averaging 32.5%. Look, we all know that Tyler Eifert is the "guy". Until he isn't. What's that mean?

 It means you can only constantly be injured so often before someone steps in and you're Wally Pipp'd. Tyler two might not be as athletic as Tyler one, but my dad's friend had a saying for this occasion, "half the battle is just showing up". Did I mention that Kroft had two targets in the red zone last week and caught both of them for touchdowns? Oh-and Eifert is a free agent next season. Insert multiple fire emojis here.

Verdict: Add anywhere you could use some tight end depth (aka the majority of the leagues). Kicking myself for not going harder after him myself.

Since I don't have five this week I feel like are really under the radar here are some other notable and more recognizable target gainers:

Alvin Kamara-10 (+5 from previous week)
Snap Share: 35.1% (+5.8%)

Devin Funchess-9 (-1 from previous week but seeing a lot since Olsen injury)
Snap Share: 92.1 % (+8%)

Duke Johnson-10 (+3)
Snap Share: 55.4% (+3.5%)

That's it for this week. Did you enjoy this article? If you did-shoot me a note @RekedFantasy. It takes a while to research and while I want to continue to do it-I'll definitely be more inclined if people are enjoying it.

Until next time,

Rek

Bobby's Dynasty Ranks: TE (10/2/17)

You all know the drill by now. This will be exactly the same format as my WR rankings. Tight End may not be the most exciting area for fantasy but it's one of the few positions where there are true difference makers.

1.) Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Age:27
2016 PPG: 11.3 (Tied 1st)
HC/OC: Andy Reid/ Matt Nagy
QB: Alex Smith

You may know that Travis Kelce was the TE1 last year. You may also know that was one of the lowest scoring TE1 seasons in years. That doesn't change that he is the guy to own in dynasty. I know some of you will argue Gronk but at a certain point, you have to say this guy missing games hurt my team.

2.) Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
Age:28
2016 PPG:10.6 (Third)
HC/OC: Bill Belichick/ Josh McDaniels
QB: Tom Brady

Weird. Did you guys just hear someone say something negative about Gronk? Must have just left. We all know when he's on the field he's a dominant force. It's just a matter of staying healthy which has always been an issue for him.

3.) Jordan Reed
Age: 27
2016 PPG: 11.3 (First)
HC/OC: Jay Gruden/Matt Cavanaugh
QB: Kirk Cousins

Another guy who would be among the elite if only he could stay healthy. The concussions are a bit scary since he's accumulated so many. However, what he did in 2015 isn't that long ago and is certainly tantalizing.

4.) Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 26
2016 PPG: 10.3 (6th)
HC/OC: Doug Pederson/ Frank Reich
QB: Carson Wentz

Has seen 100+ targets the past two seasons. Already averaging six targets a game this season. Wentz clearly loves him. The only reason he's not higher? Where are the touchdowns? Show me the touchdowns!

5.) Evan Engram, New York Giants
Age:23
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Ben McAdoo/Mike Sullivan
QB: Eli Manning

Is this an aggressive ranking? You know it. However, I'm going to share a tweet here:

Engram's pace would put him second (since 1920) for rookie TE receptions (76) and fifth in yards (800).
via @pfref https://t.co/4CzQxDA6sd

— George Kritikos (@RotoHack) October 2, 2017

The Giants loooove to target their tight ends and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Engram is a future stud in the making at an accelerated pace.

6.) Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
Age: 32
2016 PPG: 10.5 (Tied 4th)
HC/OC: Ron Rivera/ Mike Shula
QB: Cam Newton

Until the injury this season Olsen had started every game since the 2012 season. He's the picture of consistency. The injury is a bit concern of his age. Hopefully, he can recover because he is easily Cam's favorite target when he's on the field.

7.) Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
Age:27
2016 PPG: 10.5 (Tied 4th)
HC/OC: Marvin Lewis/ Bill Lazor
QB: Andy Dalton

You should pretty much read what I wrote about Reed for Tyler Eifert. Another guy who had a tantalizing 2015 season but has trouble staying healthy. The clock is ticking a bit fast on this ranking.

8). Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 8.6 (13th)
HC/OC: Anthony Lynn/Ken Whisenhunt
QB: Phillip Rivers

You may know that rookie tight ends almost never produce anything. You may also know that Hunter Henry caught 8 touchdowns last season. His involvement this season has been limited but once Antonio Gates is out of the picture he's going to take off.

9.) Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
Age: 27
2016 PPG: 10.5 (Tied 4th)
HC/OC: Mike Zimmer/ Pat Shurmur
QB: Sam Bradford

It feels weird to be ranking Rudolph this high but here we are. Remember when we all laughed when he declared himself the best TE in the league? Maybe he meant one of the best as long as Sam Bradford is throwing him the ball.

10.) O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age:22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Dirk Koetter/Todd Monken
QB: Jameis Winston

Howard finally gave us a taste of what he can do this past week when he caught two of four targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. With Cameron Brate still around it may take some time for him to still be involved, but be patient. He's a top talent at the position and you're going to be glad you have him on your roster.

11.) Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks
Age: 30
2016 PPG: 9.8 (7th)
HC/OC: Pete Caroll/Darrell Bevell
QB: Russell Wilson

The move to Seattle meant Jimmy Graham was supposed to ball out.  He's clearly not the same player he was in New Orleans. That doesn't mean he isn't still very effective. Over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns will play in almost every format.

12.) Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 4.5 (51st)
HC/OC:  Dan Quinn/ Steve Sarkisian
QB: Matt Ryan

Being part of the Falcons offense is a great place to be fantasy wise. It somewhat feels like Hooper is the forgotten man because of the rookie class of tight ends and Hunter Henry getting more attention. Don't forget about him. He already has a game of 100+ yards with a TD in the short season. 

13.) David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Age:21
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC:  Hue Jackson/ Gregg Williams
QB: Deshone Kizer

This ranking is more about the Browns than Njoku himself. I just don't fully trust Kizer yet, and it's trouble if the Browns need to get yet another QB. Long term I still believe Njoku will have a lot of value though.

14.) Jack Doyle, Indianpolis Colts
Age: 27
2016 PPG:7.2 (27th)
HC/OC: Chuck Pagano/Rob Chudzinski
QB: Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissett

What happened to the Doyle hype train from the off-season? The season hit and the Colts look a little lost without Andrew Luck?  Doyle still managed to have a pretty solid game week 2 and has the benefit of Andrew Luck being back at some point.

15.) Delanie Walker, Tennesee Titans
Age: 33
2016 PPG: 10.4 (5th)
HC/OC: Mike Mularkey/Terry Robiskie
QB: Marcus Mariota

Walker has been a reliable option since the '14 season. He has scored at least 4 touchdowns and 800 receptions yards each season since then. That said, the Titans have Jonnu Smith in town who is off a decent start of his career. Additionally, Walker can be cut next year while saving a ton of money for the Titans.

16.) Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills
Age:28
2016 PPG: 7.2 (29th)
HC/OC: Sean McDermott/ Rick Dennison
QB: Tyrod Taylor

He could have a new QB next year but talk about production coming out of nowhere. Clay is seeing a huge amount of volume for the Bills this season and making the most of his opportunity. A rookie tight end might just see him as the security blanket they need.

17.) Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 7 (31st)
HC/OC: Sean Payton/Pete Carmichael
QB: Drew Brees

Through four games this season Fleener has two touchdowns. All of the last season he had three. The Saints offense is a beneficial place to be and it seems like Fleener is starting to get the hang of the ropes.

18.) Martellus Bennett, Green Bay Packers
Age: 30
2016 PPG: 8.8 (18th)
HC/OC: Mike McCarthy/Edgar Bennett
QB: Aaron Rodgers

If you read my Packers BDTT you'd know that Mike McCarthy basically never throws to his tight end. However, the team did use the position a bit more in the postseason last season which may have encouraged them to go after Martellus Bennett in the first place. Bennett hasn't done much to start the season but he is seeing target volume that should translate eventually.

19.) Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams
Age:23
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Sean McVay/ Matt LaFleur
QB: Jared Goff

Emerging offense? Check. Young QB to grow with? Check. A ton of natural talent? You know what I'm going to say. He does have to compete with Higbee but the early returns have been better for him than Higbee this season.

20.) George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Age: 22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Kyle Shanahan/Robert Saleh
QB: Brian Hoyer

The team traded away the only competition Kittle had. He hasn't done a ton in his starting role, but Brian Hoyer hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire either. Keep the faith as the Falcons tight ends combined for eight touchdowns with Shanahan as the offensive coordinator last season.

21.) C.J Fiedorwicz, Houstan Texans

Age: 25
2016 PPG: 7.1 (32nd)
HC/OC: Bill O'Brien
QB: Deshaun Watson

I could see Ryan Griffin stealing this ranking from him.  I'll put my faith in the one with the better athletic profile and higher draft pedigree..for now. It'll be very interesting to see his usage when he returns from his concussion.

22.) Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders
Age: 30
2016 PPG: 5.7 (42nd)
HC/OC:  Jack Del Rio/ Todd Downing
QB: Derek Carr

We keep trying to make Jared Cook happen, but maybe he's just average? I do like the fact that he's seeing a lot of volume in the Raiders offense though.  Maybe he can be the "Seth Roberts" this year and score a bunch of touchdowns that make Amari Cooper owners angry?

23.) Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, New York Jets
Age: 25
2016 PPG: 3.1 (81st)
HC/OC: Todd Bowles/John Morton
QB: Josh McCown

I'm not usually one to trust guys who can't seem to get it together but he may be the most talented pass catcher on the Jets.He's seeing a good amount of target volume, and it wasn't long ago that he was very well thought of in the dynasty community. If the Jets can get a legitimate QB at the helm watch out.

24.) Jesse James, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age:23
2016 PPG: 4.5 (76th)
HC/OC: Mike Tomlin/Todd Haley
QB: Ben Roethlisberger

Vance McDonald was supposed to steal Jesse James jobs. I was so wrong about James and bid way too much on McDonald in one league. The Steelers are similar to the Giants-they target their tight ends all the time.

25.) Jake Butt, Denver Broncos
Age:22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Vance Joseph/ Mike McCoy
QB: Trevor Siemian

Butt was thought of as right up there with the rest of this class before getting injured. It feels weird to type this after A.J. Derby just had the best game of his career, but I do believe Butt will eventually be the tight end the Broncos need. All pun intended.

If you have any questions about my ranks after the top 25 definitely feel free to message me on twitter @RekedFantasy. Always open to a twitter conversation!