Who is that Fantasy Player? It's Jay Ajayi!

Note from Zach: I think seeing me doing some writing got Bobby itching to do some of his own! I'm thrilled to have him submit a piece of his own for this blog and hopefully there will be more to come in the future.

It’s Pika...damnit. It’s Jay Ajayi. You’ll need to excuse my dated pop culture references, but as many of you know I’ve been out of the writing game for a bit. It’s time to shake off the rust with a look at the pros and cons of Jay Ajayi as a dynasty player.

I personally own Jay Ajayi in at least one league. I acquired him on the cheap when Arian Foster was going to be “the guy” for the Dolphins. However, at the time I had no idea just how good of a move it would turn out to be.

What really has me considering Ajayi’s value is the fact that I was recently offered a trade of Devante Parker, Tevin Coleman, and Terrance West for Ajayi alone. I know what most of you are you thinking. Are you as crazy as people who think the earth is flat? You must be to not take that deal!

Honestly, I wish I was a flat earth truther. It might be easier than being an Ajayi truther.  Just yesterday Mike Randle of Last Word on Pro Football came out with this article detailing while you should avoid drafting Ajayi in all formats. 

Mike makes a lot of great points about the pros and cons of Ajayi and I’m going to list them below for those you who are more of the TLDR type of reader. 

Pros:

• Started only 12 games but finished with 1,272 yards
• Ranked ninth among all rbs with  260 carries
• His 484 yards after contact were third among NFL RBS
• Multiple 200 yard games
• Great game against the Jets tough run defense

Cons:

• In first five games of the season Ajayi only averaged 3.8 yards per carry
•  Miami’s O-line was almost never fully healthy last season (and Mike didn’t point this out but they were ranked 30th by PFF)
• Two of his 200 yard games came against the Bills who were not nearly as good a defense last year as they have been in years past
• Tore ACL in 2011,  hamstring injury in 2015 preseason, and rib injury in 2015 that caused him to miss a good portion of the season

The article compares Ajayi’s season last year to what Peyton Hillis did in 2010 before falling off. I’ve had some “one year wonder” concerns of my own especially since the Dolphins did take Kenyan Drake in the third round of the 2016 draft. I can understand why someone may want to cash out on him like they should have done with Jeremy Langford prior to last season.

However, if you are in a dynasty league I don’t think it’s quite time to cash out yet. Let's try to remember that this is a guy who saw his draft stock fall only due to injury concerns. He was the RB 11 in half ppr leagues last season and is only 24.

 It's also important to keep in mind that Ajayi put up those points while running behind one of the worst o-lines in the league. The o-line should only improve as long as it can stay healthy.They can't possibly get worse right? Even if they don't improve, he's shown an elite ability to create running room for himself.

I also don’t buy the argument that his 200+ yard games came against bad defenses or defenses who were checked out. These are guys who are professionals for a reason. Are we seriously supposed to think because they were eliminated from playoff contention that they suddenly thought “Know what? Let’s let him run all over us because we are now treadmills and no longer highly paid professional football players whose job it is to tackle him”.

Finally, Adam Gase who is heralded as “that guy who once made Jay Cutler look good” says he wants to give Ajayi even more carries! This is the same Adam Gase who made Jeremy Langford look like he could play football!  But wait! Won’t Ajayi’s knee spontaneously explode or at least have a baby alien rip it from the inside out from all the extra carries!? That didn’t happen last year and there’s no reason to believe it’s more likely to happen this year.

Normally, I’m someone who is as risk averse as Chucky from Rugrats. However, Ajayi has the potential to be a league winner for a few years on a team willing to risk it. As a league mate of mine often says, “You have to risk it for the biscuit”.

*Pictured above-me when presented with anything that is risky*

Until next time,


Rek - @RekedFantasy on Twitter

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 3rd Round

I think a few sleeper prospects may have crept into my 2nd round, the ones that I really like. The third round is a mix of guys I am lower than most on vs some more sleepers that I would love to get in this round. There is upside all the way through the third round but a lot of it comes with a lack of clear immediate opportunity or other issues (level of competition, athleticism and age). Identify a couple guys in this round that fit your preference in prospects and target them in the draft!

25.) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes is the QB of the future for the Chiefs. Key word there is ‘future’ as Mahomes is the most likely rookie to see zero playing time this year. To draft Mahomes would be a luxury, so you really have to be sold on his talent. He definitely has that. He is a gunslinger with a big time arm. His 60 MPH ball velocity is about as fast as it gets and he used that arm to lead the FBS in passing yards in 2016 and put up 77 pass TDs over the past two seasons. He has drawn comparisons to hall of fame gunslinger Brett Favre, so it’s no surprise offensive guru Andy Reid liked him. Reid was with the Packers for the early days of Favre’s career and helped develop him. I mentioned it earlier with Kareem Hunt but Reid is great at working with a player’s style rather than forcing them into his scheme. The Chiefs may have a conservative pass attack with Alex Smith, but that will absolutely change for the Mahomes era. The Chiefs already have a big touchdown threat in Travis Kelce and elite speed with Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley so this offense is ready for Mahomes, and they will likely add more in the future. Mahomes is set up to succeed. He just requires patience from a dynasty owner.

26.) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are without a doubt going to be a pass first team going forward. I don’t think any RB on the team will be particularly successful in 2017. However I also see the Bucs as one of the teams with wide open opportunity at the position. Doug Martin is kind of an unknown for 2017, Charles Sims isn’t very good, Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers are just guys. McNichols could lead this team in touches as a rookie. He has nice speed (4.49) and good combine numbers across the board. He was highly productive in two years as a starter with Boise State and finished 2016 with the second most touchdowns from scrimmage (27). He also caught 103 passes in college so he can kind of do it all. What’s not to like? He was only a 5th rounder much like Aaron Jones in the round 2 article, but he didn’t have injury issues keeping him down. McNichols 5.4 YPC was not great, especially outside of the power-5. When facing tougher competition he didn’t step up. This was most clear in his final game as a collegiate player with a very poor performance against Baylor in the Cactus Bowl (70 YFS, 2.4 YPC). He has a great opportunity but he will need to prove he can handle the NFL level.

27.) WR Amara Darboh, Seattle Seahawks

You may see Darboh and roll your eyes at another Seahawk WR pick. Dating back to 2013 here are the receivers the Seahawks have drafted: Chris Harper, ‘13 123rd overall & never caught a pass in the NFL. Paul Richardson, ‘14 45th overall perhaps has some talent but landed on IR in both of his first two seasons and didn’t look the same in 2016. He was taken ahead of Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry in the 2nd round alone. Kevin Norwood ‘14 123rd overall caught 9 passes and only lasted one year with Seahawks. Tyler Lockett, ‘15 69th overall. A fine player but thus far has not proven to be anything special and now recovering from a broken leg. Kenny Lawler, ‘16 243rd overall. Okay so this was at the end of the draft so we can forgive the fact that he has never been on the active roster. Alright that was your dynasty bonus, a review of recent Seahawks WR draftees. 4 busts and one Tyler Lockett who is definitely not a success but not a failure yet either. So that brings us to Darboh, taken 106th overall at the end of the 3rd round. I will now make a modest case for why Darboh has a better chance to succeed. Darboh has a great size/speed combination at 6’2”, 214lbs and 4.45 in the 40. He is pretty highly ranked in SPARQ score. Darboh also had a productive year for Michigan, leading the team in recs, rec yards and rec TDs. Although being the poor offense that Michigan was, his stat line of 57-862-7 just isn’t that sexy. What separates him from the recent WRs the Seahawks have drafted? He is the first receiver they’ve taken that has the whole package of size, athleticism and production. His college numbers being what they were is the main reason I think he fell as far as he did (in addition to being older at 23 years old). I also think he fits a big need for the Seahawks and can replace the very bad Jermaine Kearse opposite Doug Baldwin on the outside. The Seahawks lack of success with WRs concerns me but they have a good QB and I happen to like this player so I’ll be somewhat optimistic with Darboh.

28.) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

It’s not often you get a 6’4”, 4.50 highly productive receiver that flies under the radar. Golladay is quickly gaining steam in the dynasty community but he is still not a top draft pick. I like his fit with the Lions where Golden Tate is very reliable but not a superstar and Marvin Jones had mixed results in year one. Stafford has transitioned into a less aggressive more consistent QB under OC Jim Bob Cooter but the Lions would definitely like someone who can at least fill a little bit of the void Calvin Johnson left at WR1. I think it is important to note that Golladay is one of the oldest rookies as he turns 24 in early November. He also faced almost no top competition and did not fare well when he did (Ohio State and Boise State in 2015). He likely will need a period of adjustment which is not great for a guy that is already older.

29.) TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams

Everett is an absolute beast, right up there athletically with the tight ends that are in my 1st round. He also has the college production to match, putting up a 49-714-4 line for a team that did not throw a whole lot. He just happened to do it at a smaller school and also fell to the Rams where I am not at all confident in Jared Goff. Everett is also undersized at 6’3” 239lbs and his 4.62 is good but nothing compared to Evan Engram! The fact remains that Everett is a very good prospect and despite landing with a less than ideal situation he’s worth taking at the beginning of the third. Expect a quiet year one with a chance for big things going forward.

30.) WR Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams

6’3”, fairly athletic and productive against tough competition, I am surprised Reynolds fell as far as he did in the draft (117th overall). It seems the biggest concern was his slender frame at just 194 lbs. He was an excellent deep threat with a line of 61-1039-12, good for 17 yards per catch. He scored a touchdown in all but two games in 2016 and saved his best for last when he put up a 12-154-2 line in the Texas Bowl against Kansas State. After falling in the draft, he also landed in one of my least favorite situations with the Rams. Should I have a pick in the middle of the 3rd, I’ll be hoping Sean McVay can improve that offense quickly because Reynolds is my favorite WR the Rams have.

31.) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Mack is both athletic and productive but fell to the end of the 4th round in the NFL draft. This was in part due to the fact that he did not lead his team in rushing despite 1,187 yards and a 6.8 YPC. His mobile QB stole the show from him! In addition he is a little undersized and didn’t do himself any favors in the bench press. I’m unconvinced he can thrive at the NFL level. He did go to the right spot with the Colts. Odds get higher every year that Gore finally hands over the reigns to someone new. If you are looking for an immediate contributor, I think Mack could be bumped up a little but I imagine they will add someone new next year as well.

32.) QB Deshone Kizer, Cleveland Browns

I have a love/hate relationship with Kizer. His numbers fell in 2016 and many feel he could have used another year in college but I can’t fault him for leaving. Notre Dame was a dumpster fire and Brian Kelly is Brian Kelly. (I am neither a Fighting Irish fan nor hater but I do not care for Brian Kelly) Kizer has prototypical size for a QB and solid ball velocity. While his numbers fell off and his 58.7% completion rate in 2016 is not good, he did still have 47 pass TDs to 19 interceptions in his two seasons. He definitely has the potential to start for several years in the NFL but the Browns will need to bring him along slowly.

33.) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia Eagles

It is easy to write off Pumphrey as too small (5’8”, 176lbs) but I love that he went to the team that rosters Darren Sproles and can work with one of the all-time great undersized backs. He was also massively productive in college with 2000+ YFS and 17+ touchdowns in three straight years. That is both a positive and a negative as he never missed a game in college, proving he can handle a lot despite his stature. However even appropriately sized players get hurt after so much work. It is definitely concerning to an extent. Also outside of a respectable 4.48 in the 40, he did not impress at the combine. His 5 reps of the bench press (0 percentile) is about what you would expect for Pumphrey but if you look back to Darren Sproles he actually crushed the bench press with an above average 23 reps. It would have been nice to see some surprising strength from Pumphrey. He will certainly be a risk to take in Dynasty. Expect him to mostly sit in 2017 and hopefully learn from watching how Sproles works.

34.) WR Chad Williams, Arizona Cardinals

Williams was an FCS star at Grambling State and put up an impressive line of 90-1337-11 as a senior. Obviously the competition was lacking but he did play against Arizona last year. The Wildcats were very bad but Williams had 13 receptions for 152 yards. For a team that was likely outmatched in many ways, that is very promising. It is also perhaps interesting to note that Williams was drafted late in the third round out of a small school much like his new teammate John Brown. While it is nice to see a little history of the Cardinals finding success in small school receivers, I should note these are two very different players. Williams is fast at 4.45 but not THAT fast. Williams enters a situation with an aging QB and no heir apparent which is not great. There is an opening as the top option in the pass game that he will most likely contend for with John Brown. There is upside here for sure.

35.) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago Bears

D-II Gronk as I like to call him, Shaheen is MASSIVE at 6’6” 278 lbs and surprisingly agile with respectable times in most of his combine drills. He was a touchdown machine with a line of 57-867-16. The issue is...it came at D-II Ashland University. Given that I put a premium on power-5 conference production over other FBS schools and give far less consideration to even FCS production, you can imagine I am very wary of Shaheen. The Bears clearly didn’t have any concerns, taking him 45th overall. That was right after Gerald Everett and well ahead of the previously mentioned Jonnu Smith. I am certain he will take some time to get used to the extreme change in level of competition. I mean, was anybody even willing to tackle a guy this size in D-II? Shaheen will be one of my favorites to watch his career play out, but for dynasty purposes I expect someone else to grab him first.

36.) TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Rounding out the 3rd round we have yet another tight end in this class that I love so much. I may have Kittle 36th overall but he is still very much worth looking into. Kittle is incredibly athletic and is the #1 ranked SPARQ TE for this year. However while he did have decent production after adjusting for the offense, Iowa passed so little in 2016 that Kittle finished with a line of 22-314-3 for the year and 48-737-10 in his college career. Those guys can succeed in the NFL but it's generally not great to put up such small numbers in college, even if it is mostly because of the offense. It should also be noted that he is on the old side and will turn 24 in October. Shanahan did not feature tight ends while in Atlanta but did bring out the best in Owen Daniels and Jordan Reed previously. As a Shanny fan I’m intrigued any time he brings in a new offensive weapon.

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 2nd Round

Back at it for the 2nd round! As I told my leaguemates, no secrets will remain. Check out the 1st round article if you want to see the factors I consider. This class is genuinely deep and there are players I like quite a lot into the 30s. Now that we are in the 2nd round I tried to list some more of the negatives when applicable. For the most part, the second round is a mix of guys with both opportunity and talent but missing a check mark or two that separates them from the first round talent.

13.) RB Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins

Perine is a player I am fairly uncomfortable about having up so high. Every year it seems like there is one player taken well outside the top 100 overall players that sneaks into the first round. Perine appears to be that guy this year, Kenneth Dixon was that guy last year. The negatives are easy to list with Perine. He is slow (4.65). His numbers dropped off in pretty much every meaningful way in each of his three collegiate seasons. This was in part due to missing multiple games in 2016 but more so a result of Joe Mixon being better. That still doesn’t account for a declining YPC though. So what are the positives? He did have an amazing freshman year that saw him set the all-time FBS single game rushing record (427 yards). The only other two FBS players to hit 400 yards are LaDainian Tomlinson and Melvin Gordon, so that is pretty sexy company. Perine is a big bruiser at 5’11” and crushed the bench press, so this is a guy that you expect to power through defenders. Despite concerns of being #2 on his college team and a drop off in numbers he was still very productive. It’s hard to hold it against him for playing on the same team with such a talented player as Mixon. The big reason why Perine is this high though is an incredibly easy path to leading his team in carries. The Redskins are a pretty good offense and I like Jay Gruden. The top running backs on the team are Rob Kelley and Matt Jones. The former supplanting the latter in 2016. If Perine is at all talented he should easily slide into the #1 spot and by playing a UDFA rookie last year we know Jay Gruden isn’t afraid to give his rookies significant playing time. There really aren’t any rookies after Perine that have an easy path to 200 carries.

14.) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

I could probably go back and forth between Kamara and Perine several times between now and my rookie drafts in early June. They are very different players and their year one roles will probably be quite different as well. To start with, Kamara was third on his team in carries in each of his college seasons with just 210 total carries at Tennessee. That is kind of a red flag to me. He also never exceeded 1000 yards from scrimmage. With the Saints, he appears to be headed for a third down / pass-catching specialist role. That player can be very valuable with the Sean Payton Saints as we’ve seen with Darren Sproles especially. I still like Mark Ingram quite a bit and Adrian Peterson will be ahead of Kamara as well. Despite not being very fast (4.56) Kamara is a SPARQ favorite. He ranked 4th among all RBs in this draft class for SPARQ score and second among RBs that were drafted. He is an excellent receiver. In addition to his meager 210 carries he caught 74 passes in those two years at Tennessee. I can definitely see a situation where Ingram and AP are both gone after this year and Kamara could end up with the bulk of the carries and 50+ receptions as well.

15.) WR/RB Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers

After taking Christian McCaffrey 8th overall I think it was a big surprise to many to see Samuel taken by the Panthers in the second, 40th overall. Samuel is extremely fast (4.31) and young - he doesn’t turn 21 until August. Do they have enough room for both players? I say...absolutely! Samuel played a lot out of the backfield in college and used his blazing speed to put up 97 carries with 7.9 YPC while adding a 74-865-7 line as a receiver. The YPC was no fluke either. In 172 college carries his career total is 7.5 which is just absurd. The main knock is that he profiles as a gadget player and does not have a clearly defined role. Will he be more Tavon Austin or Tyreek Hill? By putting him 15 I definitely see more of a Tyreek Hill role and I think Ron Rivera & OC Mike Shula have continued to improve on using players to their skill set and not forcing them into a scheme. Cam needs dump off and short yardage options in the worst way and drafting CMC and Samuel with their first two picks gives me great confidence that they have a clear vision for the two players. If anything, I worry about inefficient Kelvin Benjamin and the rest of the WRs now that these two are around.

16.) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver Broncos

Perhaps a surprise to see Henderson above the next player on my list but he is a missed tackle machine! According to Pro Football Focus, he forced 48 missed tackles in 2016, far and away the number one player. This led to an extremely impressive 18.7 yards per catch and 19 touchdowns. Couple that with 4.46 speed and he is super intriguing. The case against him is that he wasn’t drafted until the middle of the third to a team with two already very good to great receivers in place. The Broncos QB situation definitely had enough targets for two players to do well but three seems highly unlikely. DT and Sanders will both be 30 by season’s end. I don’t like to admit it but at least one of them will probably be on the decline pretty soon. The other main gripe is that Henderson was not the top target for his team. That honor goes to Trent Taylor who will be in one of my next two articles (but you’ll have to stay tuned to find out which!) Still, Henderson definitely profiles as the better NFL receiver and well worth taking in the middle of the 2nd.

17.) WR Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

Juju is the youngest fantasy-relevant player in the draft, he doesn’t even turn 21 until late November! He also went to a pass-heavy offense in the 2nd round so there is definitely appeal here and I’ve seen him mocked in the late 1st of rookie drafts. The problem is he enters a pretty deep WR corps, and one that doesn’t like to use its rookies. Coates barely saw any action as a rookie and Martavis had to wait several weeks before getting involved. I actually still like Coates quite a bit still and believe a broken hand is what kept him from a breakout last year. Martavis is a playmaker but inconsistent. He may run into another suspension at some point but I certainly wouldn’t take Juju expecting that to happen. Juju, being as young as he is, seems like a top candidate to see very little action as a rookie. A year of waiting in the wings and he will likely be available for an early second or less this time next year. Beyond the opportunity with the Steelers, he also fell in the draft after a significant dropoff in his junior year. He also isn’t exceptionally athletic nor does he have the size to make up for it. Everything was good, but nothing was great. Really the only place he shines is age-adjusted production and I’m not comfortable putting a TON of weight on that.

18.) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee Titans

The second of two talented receivers for the Titans, I believe both are the starters of the future for the team. Taywan brings a great mix of athleticism (4th best SPARQ score for a rookie receiver) and production. His 1730 yards were the 3rd most behind Trent Taylor and Zay Jones. Those two were both possession receivers without the impressive 17.7 yards per catch that Taylor brings. So what is the issue? The depth chart both in the now and the future should keep Taywan from being a star. In year one I expect Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews to be ahead of Taylor limiting him to perhaps 600-800 yards as a rookie. Long term it's hard when the expectation is he will be overshadowed by Corey Davis. There is certainly a small chance that Taylor ends up the better of the two, but just a small chance is all. The realistic best case is a situation where both put up numbers like Sanders/DT and I could definitely see that.

19.) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston Texans

Foreman is a big bruiser with impressive speed. He stands in at 6’0” 233lbs with 4.50 speed. That puts him on par with the bigger, a tiny bit slower Derrick Henry. Unfortunately Foreman isn’t Henry’s match overall. That’s fine, he is still a good prospect that put up 2000 rush yards as a 20 year old!! There is some worry about Lamar Miller but I don’t think his job is that secure any more. Miller is easily cuttable after 2017. Foreman has a pretty good shot at being the lead back in 2018 and may even usurp Miller sometime this year.

20.) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs

Hunt is a little slow for my liking at 4.62 but he did have some gaudy numbers in college and the Chiefs traded up in the top 100 to grab him. As a sophomore in 2014 Hunt had 204 carries and an 8.0 YPC which is just insane. If he could have repeated that in 2015 he probably would have declared and gone in the first two rounds. However he fell to a 5.5 YPC which is not great outside of the power-5 and also missed a couple games. Returning for his senior year he finally flashed some pass catching ability with 41 receptions and put up 1878 yards from scrimmage although once again just a 5.6 YPC. He’s a fine player but I just don’t see that much to get excited about. However I do like Andy Reid and if the team is moving up to grab this guy I think they don’t trust Spencer Ware too much.

21.) QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears

I always have a tough time ranking QBs. The way the Bears made such an obvious desperation play to move up one spot to 2nd overall screams disaster-in-waiting. Despite that I can’t help but like Trubisky. The major knock on him is that he was just a one year starter but it sure was a nice season. The Bears have already started to bring in some receivers to try and help their QB hopeful of the future. They drafted Adam Shaheen and Tarik Cohen while signing Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright (laugh if you want, but those are not awful pieces!). This is in addition to Cameron Meredith and Kevin White. They may still attack the draft on offense in the coming years much like Tennessee and Tampa have. It was a desperation play by the Bears but if Trubisky is good it doesn't matter how dumb it looked in the moment. I think they may have gotten it right.

22.) TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans

A fourth tight end in the top 24 (and very nearly had a 5th!) seems just crazy, but I love this class and it will give the position the depth it needs. Delanie Walker is 33 this year and while he had a good 2016 it was still a drop off from 2015. They needed a TE for the future and they got it. Jonnu is another very athletic TE with impressive numbers from a smaller school. He wasn’t drafted until the end of the 3rd but definitely landed with a good team. Expect Jonnu to be mostly a zero in 2017, but the hope is that he can be the starter by 2018.

23.) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers

Williams is a speedster and ran a 4.41 at the combine. He took an interesting path to the 49ers. After being stuck in a committee and not being very successful through two games, Williams left the Utes, returning after injuries guaranteed him a featured role. Williams put up massive numbers after returning, highlighted by 332 yards against UCLA and 222 in the bowl game against Indiana. Coupled with the speed he showed at the combine, he became a guy that Shanahan wanted and convinced GM John Lynch to take. There is some uncertainty here and Carlos Hyde is still around but Shanahan already successfully used two running backs in Atlanta so don’t be surprised if Williams has a year 1 impact.

24.) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones is one of my favorite under the radar prospects. He ranks as the #1 drafted RB in SPARQ score thanks to excellent 3-cone, vertical jump and broad jump numbers. Better yet, he has the the college production to back it up. Jones had 2006 yards from scrimmage with 20 touchdowns as a senior. His 7.7 YPC and 28 receptions add extra appeal. So why did he fall to the end of the 5th round in the draft, not even the first RB that the Packers took? After a hot start to the 2015 season he tore a ligament in his ankle after two games. He also missed time as a freshman and had over 250 touches in both of his two full seasons. Jones also has little experience against top competition but he did put up 150+ yards against Texas Tech twice and also had 124 yards with a 6.8 YPC against Texas last year. I like Ty Montgomery a lot but I don’t think the Packers see him as a true feature back. Aaron Jones is one of my favorite sleepers in this draft.

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 1st Round

Some of you have already drafted, immediately following the NFL draft. Others wait until after the preseason which can both genuinely and deceptively boost a player’s stock. For my leagues I like to do the draft in early June. The dust settles on the rookies and it gives us time to consider what their roles will be. So with my drafts coming up, I decided to release my rankings with some brief analysis. I was a little hesitant knowing some of my league mates will read this but I’ve really been itching to get some content out there.

I think it's important to discuss the factors I value for my rankings. Probably first and foremost is draft investment. If a team likes you enough to take a player in the first or second, they probably want to feature that player pretty heavily. The same goes for players undrafted or late in the draft. It is very very hard to end up being successful after all 32 teams have passed on you several times. Second I look at college production. In general, very few players that weren't stars in college end up being more productive in the NFL. I prefer to use College Dominator which looks at a percent of the team's yards that a player accounted for. I also prefer power-5 conference production. However I will make exceptions like with my #1 player this year.

I also find myself valuing landing spot and initial opportunity more and more. Guys like Todd Gurley and Will Fuller are two examples of players I really like but their team really hampered their 2016 production. In general if a guy doesn't have great opportunity in year one, his value will fall even though it is common for players to struggle as rookies, or even in their second year. Next would be athleticism. You can succeed in the NFL without being a top athlete (see Jarvis Landry) but players that are fast, agile and strong tend to have a higher success rate. I love a good combination of size and speed and I also look at SPARQ scores for a better idea of a player's overall athleticism. Lastly, age-adjusted production is something I keep in mind. There is a big difference between a guy putting up eye-popping numbers at 20 years old vs 23 years old (I'm looking at you Cooper Kupp).

Final note: I don't watch tape. I will sometimes be watching games live and form opinions from that but in general I trust a combination of the factor listed above. It's led me to some pretty nice success looking for rookies over the past few years.

1.) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

After keeping Leonard Fournette in this spot pretty much since the 2016 college season was underway, I finally relented shortly after the NFL draft completed. Basically it comes down to landing spot and situation. Both are immensely talented but Corey Davis lands in an offense that is just better in every way. He’s likely to play like a star in year one but he should have immediate impact and be a long term fantasy starter. For year one I expect somewhere around 100 targets and between 800-1000 yards. In the future I see multiple top 15 seasons from Davis.

2.) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon on the team, Fournette should immediately become the bellcow back with 200+ carries. That said, there is a lot more room for failure than with Zeke Elliott last year behind a sterling offensive line. Worst-case scenario, Fournette could be 2016 Todd Gurley with less touches. Gurley was in a horrendous offensive situation and it led to 3.2 YPC and 6 TDs despite over 300 touches. Best case is probably not far off from Zeke - 275 carries, 1400+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. I definitely believe the Jaguars offense as a whole is far better than the Rams were last year and so I’m more optimistic. Fournette could definitely finish top 10 as a rookie.

3.) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

While everyone else seems to be gravitating towards Joe Mixon here, I remain very bullish on CMC. I think he has the highest floor of any rookie in this draft. He’s very athletic, very productive in college and very young - he does not turn 21 for another few weeks. The main knock against him is that he is small (5’11”, 202 lbs) and awful in the bench press so there is some worry about whether he will be able to keep going after first contact and whether he will get hurt. I think he makes up for this concern with his elusiveness - he caught 99 passes in 37 games with 12.2 yards per catch. I think he is a perfect fit for the Panthers who have desperately needed a short game passing option. He should get 150+ carries and 50 receptions as a rookie. I have a very hard time seeing him below 1000 yards from scrimmage and if his catching ability is as good as I think it is, there is room for a good bit more.

4.) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Mixon checks off all the same boxes that CMC does and is also more of a true feature back size. However he is a big question mark off the field and it is up to each person to decide how much they want to factor that in. Falling to the middle of the second round as a result, he fell to a team that already has two decent (or perhaps, not horrible) backs in place. As a result I think he may face some of the same problems that Derrick Henry did in year one competing for touches with DeMarco Murray. Gio and Hill are definitely not on the same level, but Gio will most likely remain the top 3rd down back on the team. Hill is coming off back-to-back sub 4.0 YPC seasons but he does have 30 touchdowns in his three years with the Bengals. I expect Hill to vulture some touchdowns in 2017. The talent is very real but there are more question marks that keep him behind CMC

5.) WR Mike Williams, San Diego Chargers

Williams is a player that has seen his draft stock fall over the last two months. This despite a strong championship game against Alabama, perfect WR1 size and being drafted 7th overall. The concerns are Philip Rivers being old and Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams already being in place for the Chargers. However Keenan Allen has yet to play a full season and is now coming off a torn ACL. Despite the general success rate of returns from ACL injuries, it is still not wise to assume Keenan will be 100% in 2017. Tyrell had a fine season but is not someone I (or the Chargers, clearly) fully trust. If Mike Williams is as good as the Chargers believe, he will have no problem making a year one impact. If you are picking 5 or 6 and you let him slide past you, there is a strong chance you will come to regret that move.

6.) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants

Surprised? Don’t be. Evan Engram is the best fit for his team of the 1st round tight ends. At 6’3” 234 lbs he is very undersized for a tight end. A tight end that is expected to block anyway. In Ben McAdoo’s pass heavy offense it is crystal clear to me that Engram will be utilized in much the same manner as Jordan Reed. Making up for his size, Engram has 4.42 speed which is just insane for a guy that is as big as he is. Engram was also very productive in college, leading his Rebels in receptions, rec yards and TDs as a senior. I think he makes an immediate impact, although the presence of three quality WRs will limit him in 2017. He should still be able to bring in 600+ yards which would be excellent for a tight end. If/when Brandon Marshall leaves the team, Engram will really blossom.

7.) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Howard is also a tremendous tight end prospect and his 4.51 speed at 6’6” 251 lbs is just as if not even more impressive than Engram’s. The main knock I have is that he wasn’t super productive in college. Sure Alabama didn’t pass as much, but even when adjusting for that his numbers don’t really dazzle. He may be a better NFL player than fantasy player. With Mike Evans and Desean Jackson around, I expect those two to be the centerpieces of this offense in 2017. Cameron Brate may even stay ahead of Howard in year one. Long term I do think Howard becomes a quality fantasy player but it will likely take a little longer than Engram. Greg Olsen - a comparable player in terms of size, speed and college production - was a top ten fantasy tight end in his second and third years but only barely. He did not break out until his second year in Carolina and his sixth year in the NFL. Thankfully, Howard is in a better position with a young franchise QB and stud WR on the team.

8.) WRJohn Ross, Cincinnati Bengals

The fastest player ever recorded at the combine, Ross is a super exciting player for that alone. The same arguments about Mike Williams’ draft capital can be made here. You do not draft a guy in the 1st round without big plans for him, and that is only more true for a top ten pick! However unlike Williams’ I do have some more concerns. First and foremost, the Bengals have a much more reliable stud than Keenan Allen already in place. That being A.J. Green of course.  The other concern being John Ross’ injury history. He tore his ACL in 2015, but bounced back strong this past year. He also injured his shoulder in 2016 which required surgery that he put off until after the combine. In fact even at the combine he strained his calf muscle at the end of his record setting run. I have no doubt he has very real playmaking ability but he will need to prove his ability to stay on the field. 

9.) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Cook is a player where tape and athleticism are at odds. Cook was monstrously productive at Florida State and went into the combine as the #1 or #2 running back. However, outside of a 4.49, Cook’s combine numbers were disastrous. Mike Zimmer HATES playing rookies. I can’t find the tweet but I believe it was Graham Barfield who tweeted out the # of rookie snaps for each team in 2016 and the Vikings were far and away the lowest. I’d like to see this change but I’m not counting on it. With Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon, the Vikings could probably get away with limiting Cook’s touches this year as well. Between that and the concerns over his athleticism I will most likely not be getting Cook in any of my drafts.

10.) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills

One of my favorite players in this draft, Zay has an easy path to a first year impact. Even if we make a bold assumption that Sammy Watkins plays all 16 games and puts up big numbers, there is literally no other wide receiver on this roster that I would even want on my dynasty team. Corey ‘Philly’ Brown? Meh. Kolby Listenbee? Maybe as the last man on my roster. I see a very similar situation to Sterling Shepard last year. Except that Zay is bigger and more athletic and also just had one of the greatest college careers ever! The one knock against Zay is his paltry 11.1 yards per catch in college. Zay says it was the result of the system he played in and I buy it. I will not be surprised if Zay finishes among the top two for rookie receivers.

11.) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Godwin is probably the player among my top twelve that I feel the least certain about. Another super athlete with 4.42 speed, Godwin had big time numbers in 2015 but actually dropped off in ‘16 despite a more productive and pass-heavy offense behind redshirt sophomore Trace McSorley. Godwin is unlikely to have a big year one impact without injury. Even longer term, Mike Evans is going to stick around. O.J. Howard was also brought in. Desean Jackson is with the team at least through 2018, although they also have him on contract through 2019. So where does Godwin fit? The most probable scenario is that Tampa becomes a very pass heavy team and Desean Jackson slides back to WR3 in ‘18 and also Howard never totally emerges. Also if Jameis ends up being a truly elite talent, there could be room for everybody to succeed. Either way, I like the talent so much that I have him in my 1st round despite being very unsure of how he puts up numbers.

12.) TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

The last of three absolutely tremendous tight end prospects that were drafted in the first round, Njoku landed in easily the worst situation. His QBs for 2017 will be Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Brock Osweiler. Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman are the top targets. I would be very surprised if Njoku is able to have a significant impact this year as the #3 target with those QBs. However as a prospect he is worth taking here. He isn’t as fast as Engram or Howard but with a 4.64 40 he is still well above average. He is also a better all-around athlete with the second best SPARQ score among TEs. He had a whopping 16.6 yards per catch in college. Lastly while both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram will be 23 by season's end, Njoku doesn’t turn 21 until July. Njoku will definitely require a little more patience but is absolutely worth it.

Postscript: It’s been a while since I’ve written anything and it wasn’t easy getting back to it. I am definitely rusty. I just want to say thank you for following me on twitter even when I’m not delivering a whole lot of quality content. More importantly thank you for taking some of your valuable time to read this. I will be focusing on dynasty content going forward. I’m hoping to have plenty more dynasty content this year and it will definitely (hopefully) get better the more I write!