Tiered Dynasty Rankings - RB Tiers 1 & 2

Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal. When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages. As far as RBs specifically, the offensive line is definitely a major major factor in determining their success. Being someone that does not break down tape and evaluate offensive lines myself, I will rely on and refer to Pro Football Focus’s offensive line grades rankings here. Those rankings can be found here.

Tier 1

The top tier of running backs in dynasty consists of the three guys who have clearly set themselves apart with extremely high levels of play and consistency. That is not to say there aren’t some questions on these players - the RB position is tough and one where a guy can go from top 5 to outside the top 20 in a single season. The three players in this top tier I certainly feel very comfortable with for 2017 and I also feel pretty good about them for at least another year or two after that as well. I would put their worth at about 2.5-3 firsts.

1.) Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Age: 22

2016 PPG: 20.4 (3rd)

HC/OC: Jason Garrett / Scott Linehan

PFF O-Line Rank: 9th

How refreshing is it to see a hugely hyped fantasy prospect meet and perhaps even exceed expectations? Zeke fell just six yards short of becoming the third rookie RB to hit 2000 YFS after Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James. To see him rank right behind those guys, I’d say he is in good company! Is it bold to have him in the #1 spot after just 16 career games? (he sat out the final regular season game, but I am counting his playoff appearance here) I don’t think so. Zeke has just one career game below 80 YFS - his very first game. He also has just three of sixteen games below a 4.0 YPC. He was so consistently good with a top offensive line and emerging franchise QB that he is set up for a very long run of dynasty dominance. To look at the small negatives, I think the first thing you’ll notice is that his offensive line has a worse ranking than they’ve had in recent years. The Cowboys still have the amazingly talented trio of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Travis Frederick but they did lose two starters. Ronald Leary and Doug Free were not elite talents, but both were reliable and good. Even if their replacements are just okay, Elliott should continue putting up huge numbers. He is also not the pass-catcher that David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell have proven to be. However he is still a pretty solid receiver and I think that gets overlooked a bit. I guess the other small negative is that he has proven to be a bit of a knucklehead off the field. He has had a couple very minor incidents, but not really anything that is cause for concern yet even with the talk of a short suspension to start 2017. While I like Dak Prescott a lot, this is not a team that is going to move away from their run first identity (1st in rushing attempts, 30th in passing) anytime soon. Zeke will be a workhorse and I can’t see any reason for a fall off in the next few seasons.

2.) David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Age: 25/26

2016 PPG: 22.9 (2nd)

HC/OC: Bruce Arians / Harold Goodwin

PFF O-Line Rank: 17th

David Johnson is coming off of one of the greatest seasons an RB has ever had in the NFL. He became just the 10th player to ever put up a season of 2000+ YFS and 20+ touchdowns, and the first to do so since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, when it was far more common for a running back to get 300 carries (Tomlinson had 348 carries and 404 touches that year. DJ had 373 touches last year). He is also an incredible receiver. Through two seasons, DJ has totaled 116 catches at 11.5 yards per catch. For comparison, Le’Veon Bell has a career 8.8 yards per catch and Matt Forte is at 8.5. Neither has ever hit the 11.0 yards per catch that DJ had last year, the worse of his two seasons. What are the negatives for DJ? Most notably I am really worried about the decline of Carson Palmer. Palmer had a clear drop off in 2016 and if that happens again in 2017 (and at age 37 odds are pretty good) it could get ugly. Couple that with the fact that the Cardinals have no long-term solution in place at QB and this could quickly become a very bad offense. Also factoring in is an offensive line that is just okay. These factors may have already impacted David Johnson last year as both his yards per carry and yards per rec fell off in 2016. Johnson is talented enough and a good enough receiver that he should be able to maintain significant value in even the worst case scenario (think back to the John Skelton and Ryan Lindley era). A final note of concern - Johnson led the league in touches with 373 last year. There have been four other seasons with at least that many touches in the past five years. Two of those players missed at least eight games the following year, the other two played 14 and 15 games but saw their yards per carry drop a full yard+. (Adrian Peterson & Arian Foster in 2012, DeMarco Murray & Le’Veon Bell 2014). Thankfully it is a very small sample size so I wouldn't worry too much. David Johnson should have another huge season in 2017.

3.) Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Age: 25

2016 PPG: 23.1 PPG (1st)

HC/OC: Mike Tomlin / Todd Haley

PFF O-Line Rank: 3rd

You probably noticed that my top 3 dynasty players are in reverse order of their 2016 PPG finish. There is good reason for that. While Le’Veon presents the best of both worlds as a better runner than David Johnson and a better receiver than Zeke he has some warning signs that are greater than the other two. Firstly he’s had a two game suspension in 2015 and then three games in 2016. Both were minor instances involving marijuana, but it is definitely troubling. Perhaps more worrisome is his injury history. He suffered a Lisfranc sprain in preseason of his rookie year, a torn MCL/PCL in 2015 and a groin injury in the Steelers playoff game against the Patriots last year that required offseason surgery. His workload is extremely worrisome. Since coming into the league, Le’Veon Bell ranks 5th among RBs in touches with 1,135. However he has played just 47 games during that span while the 4 workhorse backs ahead of him have all played in at least 59 games. Looking at the per game stats, Le’Veon has averaged 24.1 touches per game in the NFL and no one else has averaged more than Demarco Murray’s 21.3. All the more shocking when you consider that he led the FBS with 382 carries and 404 touches in his final season at Michigan State. That is a shockingly high workload over the past five years for a guy that has suffered multiple serious injuries. Moving on from the concerns that keep Bell 3rd, he is still in the top tier for a good reason. He was comfortably the #1 back of 2016 in PPG with an astounding 157 YFS per game. That is a slightly higher full season pace than what Chris Johnson had when he set the single season record at 2509 YFS. Can he possibly keep it up? The Steelers certainly have the offense to do it. This team has a very good QB and one of the top WRs and offensive lines in the game. That combination will make things much easier for Bell than it will be for David Johnson. For 2017 alone there is a strong case that Bell is the top RB. However in dynasty his risk is clearly higher than the previous two RBs.

Tier 2

This next set of running backs offers a ton of upside while also all being 25 and under - because age is king with running backs. This also includes multiple rookies. Rookie running backs tend to be more successful than other positions. You need not look further back than just last year with the dominance of Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard. But to really drive the point home, there have been 28 RBs with 1000 YFS in the past decade with seven players over 1600. At WR just 10 have eclipsed the 1000 YFS mark and none higher than Odell Beckham’s 1342 (which was done in just 12 games to make it even crazier). Running backs will likely come in and produce right away. While not all of them will have staying power (Jeremy Hill, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy for some recent examples), you should feel pretty good about the top prospects in dynasty. I would value these players at somewhere between 1.75 - 2.5 firsts.

4.) Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

Age: 25

2016 PPG: 16.1 (7th)

HC/OC: Dan Quinn / Steve Sarkisian

PFF O-Line Rank: 6th

I would almost say Freeman is more in a tier 1B above the guys below him but clearly behind the top three as well. After Freeman’s rookie season with two total touchdowns and a 3.8 YPC, I was a hater. Since then he has taken two big steps forward. Yes, I said two! Despite having a slightly worse fantasy in 2016, Freeman saw marked improvement in YPC to 4.8 while also improving his yards per catch and catch percentage. He even scored touchdowns at a higher rate (he scored one less overall, but on far fewer touches thanks to Tevin Coleman’s presence). He will still have to contend with Tevin Coleman to maintain 250+ touches and the departure of offensive guru Kyle Shanahan is a little troubling, but Freeman should be able to continue his success. Much like Le’Veon Bell, Freeman has an excellent offense around him that will help make things easier. He has a top QB in Matt Ryan, a top ten offensive line, an elite WR in Julio Jones and even a very talented running back behind him which will help to keep Freeman fresh throughout the season. I do expect some regression for this offense as a whole after scoring 71 more points than the #2 team last year. That is just not likely to be sustainable. As a result Freeman will probably see a drop off going forward but there is no reason he can’t put up 13-1400 YFS with 8+ TDs for at least 2-3 more years.

5.) Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears

Age: 22/23

2016 PPG: 14.3 (8th)

HC/OC: John Fox / Dowell Loggains

PFF O-Line Rank: 5th

Ezekiel Elliott got the spotlight but Howard nearly matched him as a rookie. It was Howard that had the higher yards per carry at 5.2 and still put up over 1600 YFS despite not seeing 10+ carries until the 4th game of the season. Basically the big difference between the two was Howard’s relative lack of touchdowns. This was as much a result of the offense around him as it was anything to do with Howard’s own talent. As a receiver, results were mixed. His 10.2 yards per catch on 29 receptions was well above average, but his 58% catch rate on 50 targets was well below average for a running back. With Tarik Cohen drafted in the 4th round, Howard will likely not really be a factor in the receiving game which certainly hurts his weekly floor. PFF is surprisingly very high on the Bears O-Line. Specifically, they graded the interior of the line very highly with the addition of veteran G Josh Sitton and the high play of rookie C Cody Whitehair. This should go a long way in helping Howard once again play well in 2017. Long term hopefully Mitchell Trubisky proves to be the franchise QB because the better the offense around Howard is, the better he will do. I do see some room for an Alfred Morris like trajectory in which he surprised the league with a tremendous rookie season but has had fewer YFS with each successive year and was a backup by his 4th year in the league. If the Bears don’t improve around him by 2018, Howard could definitely go the same route. However by ranking him this highly I’m banking on that not happening.

6.) Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers

Age: 24

2016 PPG: 17.7 (4th)

HC/OC: Anthony Lynn / Ken Whisenhunt

PFF O-Line Rank: 21st

It is thanks to these last two players that I have learned to stop judging running backs so harshly after one year. After seeing how many could be successful in year one, I became rather impatient with the position. Not anymore! Melvin Gordon has followed a near identical path as Freeman with a putrid year one. In 14 games as a rookie he had a 3.5 YPC and 0 touchdowns. In year two he was a touchdown machine, scoring 12 in 13 games. It did come with a pretty bad 3.9 YPC but the o-line certainly played a part in that. Much like Devonta Freeman, Gordon showed nice receiving ability last year with 10.2 yards per catch on 41 receptions. It is also important to note that Gordon has almost no competition for touches with the likes of Kenjon Barner, Kenneth Farrow, Branden Oliver and Andre Williams being the players vying for the backup spots. Gordon should continue to be a three down back and that volume will help him keep dynasty value.

7.) Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

Age: 22

2016 PPG: N/A

HC/OC: Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett

PFF O-Line Rank: 13th

The top RB selected in the NFL draft, Fournette will bring size and power to this run game. In truth, the Jags already were big at RB with both Ivory and Yeldon both being 6’0”+ and 220+ but Fournette’s 240 lbs is on another level. It might just be the perfect time for a top RB to join this team as well. The Jaguars finally have something of a stable line. Four starters return and C Brandon Linder in particular has been excellent. At LT they swap out inconsistent Kelvin Beachum for veteran Branden Albert. Doug Marrone’s offensive line background should also help. In the two games Marrone coached last year the team saw a significant uptick in rushing from 23.9 carries per game to 29. Granted it was a small sample size but as HC of the Bills in 2013, they led the league in rush attempts with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both at 200+ carries. The Jaguars didn’t take Fournette 4th overall to not use him. The man is going to get fed and it is clear that having a strong run game is part of Marrone’s plan to improve Bortles. Fournette should comfortably clear 200 carries and 1000 rush yards. The downside for Fournette is that he can’t really catch passes and T.J. Yeldon has shown some decent ability there so in full PPR leagues so you do have to knock him down a bit for that. In the past five seasons only six RBs had been drafted in the first round but four of them had 250+ touches and put up 1294+ yards from scrimmage in their rookie seasons. A 5th was Melvin Gordon who has already appeared on this list. Even in the worst case (save for injury), I see Fournette as a reliable workhorse and at age 22 that goes a long way in dynasty.

8.) Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

Age: 23

2016 PPG: 11.0 (25th)

HC/OC: Sean McVay / Matt LaFleur

PFF O-Line Rank: 18th

If you’re reading this I’m sure you don’t need me to tell you of the disappointment that was Todd Gurley’s sophomore campaign. Everyone knows that. It gets interesting when you try to pinpoint how much of the blame Gurley gets when when he had a mediocre coach and a totally inept o-line and passing game. The Rams have made some significant additions to try and change that. Most notably they brought in a very young and rather inexperienced Sean McVay to be HC. That’s not to say his resume as OC for the Redskins the past three seasons isn’t impressive. He helped turn Kirk Cousins into the potential franchise QB he is today. Alongside him is a first time OC in Matt LaFleur. LaFleur was the QB coach in Washington from 2010-13 and then the Falcons QB coach the past two seasons so he also has a promising resume, though also inexperienced. In terms of players, they added top Tackle Andrew Whitworth to the offensive line. He is 35 years old now but still had PFF’s highest pass blocking grade last year. Barring a colossal drop off, he should be a huge upgrade for both the run and pass game. The Rams did lose Kenny Britt but added several receivers in the draft to try and offset the loss. So will this all help Todd Gurley? Of course. The question is really how much it will help. After having the second lowest scoring team of the past five seasons, there is really nowhere to go but up. The Rams could have scored 100 more points last year and it would still only be good enough for 25th. That is underwhelming but would have been huge for Gurley’s numbers. I think it is a realistic achievement for the Rams in 2017. As long as they aren’t one of the worst offensive teams of the last five years again Gurley can be a very good fantasy back. To talk about Gurley himself a bit, despite coming into the NFL with a torn ACL, he hasn’t missed a single game since returning from that injury. He is a good pass catcher with 64 receptions in 29 games. That helped him stay at 1212 YFS last year despite a 3.2 YPC. With Lance Dunbar being the most notable backup RB on the team, Gurley should continue to see a ton of touches and should also see a nice improvement in efficiency. There is certainly risk here but not without major upside as well.

9.) Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Age: 21

2016 PPG: N/A

HC/OC: Ron Rivera / Mike Shula

PFF O-Line Rank: 12th

The Panthers wasted no time bringing in offensive improvements after a 2016 season that would have to be considered a disaster. McCaffrey is a significant addition to both the run game and the pass game. Cam Newton has never really had a top receiving option out of the backfield but that should change this year. McCaffrey had 99 receptions in three seasons at Stanford while also rushing 250+ times the last two seasons at a 6.0+ YPC each of those two years. There has been some debate about just how many carries McCaffrey will see in 2017 and whether Jonathan Stewart will still be significantly involved. If you play it a little safe and put him at 150 carries with a 4.4 YPC (660 yards) and 40 recs at 8.5 YPR (340) that puts him at 1000 YFS and seems easily doable. A more aggressive projection to forecast the higher end of his potential would be something like 220 carries at a 4.8 YPC (1056) with 55 recs at 9.1 YPR (500) for nearly 1600 YFS. Those numbers don’t sound ridiculous to me. McCaffrey is that talented with the combine numbers to back it up outside of a paltry bench press. The Panthers O-line was just okay last year but has some improvements for this year. Most notably, longtime C Ryan Kalil is hopefully healthy after playing just 9 games last year. T Michael Oher played just 3 games while dealing with lingering concussion symptoms. He is supposedly still dealing with those symptoms. If he can return it’s great, but at this point its looking more likely that he shouldn’t be counted on. The team signed Ryan Kalil’s younger brother Matt to a big contract. His play has been inconsistent at best but they are clearly relying on him to be a significant piece of the line. They also drafted Taylor Moton in the second round and he can play both G and T. Those additions should help McCaffrey and the offense as a whole succeed. Thanks to McCaffrey’s excellent receiving ability, he has such a high floor and I have no second thoughts about him as my #2 rookie RB or in my top ten overall RBs.

10.) Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Age: 21

2016 PPG: N/A

HC/OC: Marvin Lewis / Ken Zampese

PFF O-Line Rank: 31st

The Bengals took Mixon 48th overall despite knowing the criticism and media pushback that would follow as a result of punching a young woman in the face and seriously injuring her. The Bengals had a clear goal to improve their running game after both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard (who also tore his ACL midseason) had a sub-4.0 YPC. Additionally their offensive line will be significantly worse in 2017 with the departures of Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. They did not bring in any significant pieces via FA or draft, signing Andre Smith and hoping former 2nd rounder Jake Fisher can step up. They would need an elite talent at RB to make up for this major downgrade at OL and they may have it in Joe Mixon. Although never being a true starter with Samaje Perine around, Mixon had some pretty eye popping numbers in just two seasons at Oklahoma. Mixon had over 1800 YFS and 15 TDs on just 224 touches last year. Highlights included 377 YFS and 5 TDs against Texas Tech and 180 YFS and 2 TD in the Sugar Bowl vs Auburn, completely outshining Perine (86 yards, 1 TD). The talent is very very real. How much you want to penalize Mixon for his assault charge is up to each individual. While a truly heinous act, I’m not sure it has much of a predictive nature for future risk. As a result I have kept him in top ten RBs and I have chosen to focus on his talent. For fantasy purposes, the real question is whether he can overcome a bad offensive line that has the chance to be downright awful. He is a pretty good receiver but I’m not sure they use him in that role if Giovani Bernard returns fully healthy. That would be a shame but it’s definitely something the Bengals would do. Best-case scenario is that Mixon proves to be so talented that Marvin Lewis has no choice but to utilize him as a three down back and he plays at a star level. On the flip side Mixon’s floor is far lower than Fournette and McCaffrey thanks to stronger competition and a worse o-line. However bad Jeremy Hill may be, he has been very successful at the goal line with 30 touchdowns over three seasons. If Hill vultures touchdowns and Giovani Bernard is the main receiving back, Mixon’s rookie numbers will be very underwhelming. Bernard already has a contract extension in place, but Jeremy Hill is most likely gone after 2017 so that is a positive. I think Mixon is too talented and a possibly disappointing 2017 could be followed by a very nice 2018 and beyond.

Who is that Fantasy Player? It's Jay Ajayi!

Note from Zach: I think seeing me doing some writing got Bobby itching to do some of his own! I'm thrilled to have him submit a piece of his own for this blog and hopefully there will be more to come in the future.

It’s Pika...damnit. It’s Jay Ajayi. You’ll need to excuse my dated pop culture references, but as many of you know I’ve been out of the writing game for a bit. It’s time to shake off the rust with a look at the pros and cons of Jay Ajayi as a dynasty player.

I personally own Jay Ajayi in at least one league. I acquired him on the cheap when Arian Foster was going to be “the guy” for the Dolphins. However, at the time I had no idea just how good of a move it would turn out to be.

What really has me considering Ajayi’s value is the fact that I was recently offered a trade of Devante Parker, Tevin Coleman, and Terrance West for Ajayi alone. I know what most of you are you thinking. Are you as crazy as people who think the earth is flat? You must be to not take that deal!

Honestly, I wish I was a flat earth truther. It might be easier than being an Ajayi truther.  Just yesterday Mike Randle of Last Word on Pro Football came out with this article detailing while you should avoid drafting Ajayi in all formats. 

Mike makes a lot of great points about the pros and cons of Ajayi and I’m going to list them below for those you who are more of the TLDR type of reader. 

Pros:

• Started only 12 games but finished with 1,272 yards
• Ranked ninth among all rbs with  260 carries
• His 484 yards after contact were third among NFL RBS
• Multiple 200 yard games
• Great game against the Jets tough run defense

Cons:

• In first five games of the season Ajayi only averaged 3.8 yards per carry
•  Miami’s O-line was almost never fully healthy last season (and Mike didn’t point this out but they were ranked 30th by PFF)
• Two of his 200 yard games came against the Bills who were not nearly as good a defense last year as they have been in years past
• Tore ACL in 2011,  hamstring injury in 2015 preseason, and rib injury in 2015 that caused him to miss a good portion of the season

The article compares Ajayi’s season last year to what Peyton Hillis did in 2010 before falling off. I’ve had some “one year wonder” concerns of my own especially since the Dolphins did take Kenyan Drake in the third round of the 2016 draft. I can understand why someone may want to cash out on him like they should have done with Jeremy Langford prior to last season.

However, if you are in a dynasty league I don’t think it’s quite time to cash out yet. Let's try to remember that this is a guy who saw his draft stock fall only due to injury concerns. He was the RB 11 in half ppr leagues last season and is only 24.

 It's also important to keep in mind that Ajayi put up those points while running behind one of the worst o-lines in the league. The o-line should only improve as long as it can stay healthy.They can't possibly get worse right? Even if they don't improve, he's shown an elite ability to create running room for himself.

I also don’t buy the argument that his 200+ yard games came against bad defenses or defenses who were checked out. These are guys who are professionals for a reason. Are we seriously supposed to think because they were eliminated from playoff contention that they suddenly thought “Know what? Let’s let him run all over us because we are now treadmills and no longer highly paid professional football players whose job it is to tackle him”.

Finally, Adam Gase who is heralded as “that guy who once made Jay Cutler look good” says he wants to give Ajayi even more carries! This is the same Adam Gase who made Jeremy Langford look like he could play football!  But wait! Won’t Ajayi’s knee spontaneously explode or at least have a baby alien rip it from the inside out from all the extra carries!? That didn’t happen last year and there’s no reason to believe it’s more likely to happen this year.

Normally, I’m someone who is as risk averse as Chucky from Rugrats. However, Ajayi has the potential to be a league winner for a few years on a team willing to risk it. As a league mate of mine often says, “You have to risk it for the biscuit”.

*Pictured above-me when presented with anything that is risky*

Until next time,


Rek - @RekedFantasy on Twitter

Week 17 55 & 5 RB Rankings

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Eddie Lacy
3. DeMarco Murray
4. Matt Forte
5. Reggie Bush
6. Alfred Morris
7. Le'Veon Bell
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Knowshon Moreno
10. Zac Stacy
11. Andre Brown*
12. Chris Johnson
13. Adrian Peterson*
14. Ryan Mathews
15. DeAngelo Williams
16. Chris Ivory
17. Frank Gore
18. Shane Vereen
19. Fred Jackson
20. Giovani Bernard
21. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
22. C.J. Spiller
23. Maurice Jones-Drew*
24. Jamaal Charles
25. Bobby Rainey
26. Danny Woodhead
27. Rashad Jennings
28. Steven Jackson
29. Donald Brown
30. Joique Bell
31. Andre Ellington
32. Pierre Thomas
33. Darren Sproles
34. Edwin Baker
35. Knile Davis
36. Montee Ball
37. Stevan Ridley
38. LeGarrette Blount
39. Ray Rice
40. Rashard Mendenhall
41. Shonn Greene
42. Jacquizz Rodgers
43. Jonathan Grimes
44. Matt Asiata
45. Lamar Miller
46. Peyton Hillis
47. James Starks
48. Daniel Thomas
49. Jordan Todman
50. Mike Tolbert
51. Kendall Hunter
52. Darren McFadden
53. Bilal Powell
54. Chris Ogbonnaya
55. Trent Richardson

#5 Reggie Bush - (#13 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

There are multiple red flags around Bush. He fumbled again last week and got benched. Joique Bell looked better. And he just flat out didn't look great. But on the season Bush has been very good more often than not. It might have a risk element involved but if Bush is playing I want him in my lineup.

#6 Alfred Morris - (#10 on Fantasy Pros)

After not getting more than 14 carries in RGIII's final three games of the season, he now has 18 and 24 in the two games with Cousins. That is no coincidence. I expect 20+ against the Giants. Even if their run defense isn't awful Morris will do fine.

#8 Marshawn Lynch - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

Lynch is a must start of course, but he has slowed down considerably as the season wears on. He hasn't averaged more than 3.9 YPC in a game since week 11. He's always a great chance for a TD, but the yards haven't been there and don't expect them to be.

#11 Andre Brown - (#18 on Fantasy Pros)

I know Andre has let you down lately. He had two very tough matchups. You know what the Redskins are? Not tough. Trust me, He'll do well here.

#14 Ryan Mathews - (#9 on Fantasy Pros)

I'm always low on Mathews so maybe you should be taking that into consideration. But Woodhead was a bigger part of this offense early in the season and I don't believe he has disappeared. Mathews can be kept in check by that and I think it would be a major mistake by the Chargers to continue rolling Mathews out at 25 carries a game.

Quick Thoughts....I still really like Shane Vereen but teams have shown they can take him out of the equation. And I still believe in Stevan Ridley. I might be crazy though. If AP sits out, Matt Asiata moves to 26 or so. He scored 3 TDs but his YPC was about 2.0. He'll be lucky to get one TD here. Jamaal Charles may only play a few series, but if he can get to 10 carries he is a pretty good flex play still.

Week 16 55 & 5 RB Rankings - The Playoffs!

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Matt Forte
3. LeSean McCoy
4. DeMarco Murray
5. Adrian Peterson*
6. Reggie Bush
7. Zac Stacy
8. Alfred Morris
9. Le'Veon Bell
10. Eddie Lacy
11. Frank Gore
12. Knowshon Moreno
13. Chris Johnson
14. Rashad Jennings
15. Marshawn Lynch
16. Giovani Bernard
17. Andre Brown
18. Fred Jackson
19. Bobby Rainey
20. Shane Vereen
21. Ryan Mathews
22. Maurice Jones-Drew*
23. Pierre Thomas
24. Steven Jackson
25. C.J. Spiller
26. Chris Ivory
27. Danny Woodhead
28. Darren Sproles
29. Rashard Mendenhall
30. Ray Rice*
31. Stevan Ridley
32. Dennis Johnson
33. Montee Ball
34. DeAngelo Williams
35. Lamar Miller
36. Andre Ellington
37. Joique Bell
38. Trent Richardson
39. Edwin Baker
40. Donald Brown
41. Daniel Thomas
42. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
43. Jordan Todman (top 20 if/when MJD is ruled out)
44. Mike Tolbert
45. Jacquizz Rodgers
46. Bilal Powell
47. Chris Ogbonnaya
48. Michael Bush
49. Bernard Pierce
50. Shonn Greene
51. James Starks
52. Robert Turbin
53. Benny Cunningham
54. Willis McGahee*

#5 Adrian Peterson - (#11 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

Look, if Adrian Peterson is in, you have to start him. I think his consensus rank is low beacuse some people are assuming he doesn't play. I am assuming he plays and if he does he will be fine.

#6 Reggie Bush - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)

Reggie Bush continues to play much better at home. Even last week against the Ravens, it was quiet, but another 100 total yards and a TD. Bush averages 16.7 points per home game. He faces the Giants. Enough said.

#9 Le'Veon Bell - ( #6 on Fantasy Pros)

I really like Bell. It appears everyone else likes him even more. I think his ceiling is somewhat limited by the fact that in the current offense he won't average 5.0 YPC. Even against the Packers a 4.0 YPC would be a good game. His real value comes in TD potential and volume of touches. Because of that I will never rank him super high, but I do like him a lot.

#10 Eddie Lacy - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

In the battle of the two best rookie RBs, I like Lacy a little less while the consensus likes him a little more. He is a good play no doubt, but I was impressed with how well the Steelers held the Bengals RBs in check last week. I like him, just don't expect a huge game.

#12 Knowshon Moreno - (#7 on Fantasy Pros)

This isn't an overreaction to how poorly Moreno played last week but more of a belief that as the season winds down, Montee Ball will get more touches as they want to keep Moreno as healthy as possible for the playoffs. He is still their best RB without a doubt.

#15 Marshawn Lynch - (#10 on Fantasy Pros)

The Cardinals continue to be the best fantasy defense against RBs. They are a little vulnerable to pass-catching RBs, which Lynch is not. (This year is Lynch's most rec yards ever at 307) He might get a TD, but he also might only have 50 yards. Not a huge fan.

Quick Thoughts...Possibly overreacting to Shane Vereen but when you don't really run the ball much, you can be factored out. Sproles and Woodhead have proven that as well...Really disappointed in CJ Spiller last week. This ranking reflects that, you would need to be out of good options elsewhere to trust him in your lineup. Dennis Johnson is starting for the Texans this week but I'm not too interested. The Texans are a mess, its a big risk.

Week 15 55 & 5: The RB Rankings

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Matt Forte
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Knowshon Moreno
6. Shane Vereen
7. Eddie Lacy*
8. Reggie Bush*
9. DeMarco Murray
10. Alfred Morris
11. Steven Jackson
12. C.J. Spiller
13. Zac Stacy
14. Danny Woodhead
15. Andre Brown
16. Le'Veon Bell
17. Fred Jackson
18. Toby Gerhart*
19. Rashad Jennings
20. Maurice Jones-Drew*
21. Andre Ellington
22. Chris Johnson
23. Frank Gore
24. Giovani Bernard
25. Pierre Thomas
26. Bobby Rainey
27. Ryan Mathews
28. Darren Sproles
29. Ray Rice
30. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
31. Ben Tate
32. Montee Ball
33. Joique Bell
34. Chris Ivory
35. Stevan Ridley
36. Chris Ogbonnaya
37. Rashard Mendenhall
38. Donald Brown
39. Jordan Todman
40. Marcel Reece
41. Lamar Miller
42. Jacquizz Rodgers
43. DeAngelo Williams
44. Mike Tolbert
45. Shonn Greene
46. Trent Richardson
47. James Starks
48. Daniel Thomas
49. Benny Cunningham
50. Peyton Hillis
51. Jonathan Stewart
52. Knile Davis
53. Michael Bush
54. Joseph Randle
55. Bernard Pierce

#6 Shane Vereen - (#10 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
Without Gronk last week, Vereen was the target with the game on the line. He is a must start this week and should put up big numbers again.

#8 Reggie Bush - (#16 on Fantasy Pros)
If Reggie Bush is in, you are starting him and not thinking twice about it. He loves the home matchups. Baltimore is vulnerable to pass-catching RBs. I expect a typical 100 total yard and a TD day for Bush if he plays.

#9 DeMarco Murray - (#4 on Fantasy Pros)
If you have Murray you are almost certainly starting him. But I don't see this as a fantastic matchup like many do. Its a worse matchup than last week, and while Murray did very well, I wouldn't expect much more than 100 yards here. Anything on top of that is icing on the cake.

#11 Steven Jackson - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)
Am I crazy here? Maybe. But Steven Jackson has looked solid lately. Over the past three weeks he has had at least 80 total yards in each game as well as three touchdowns. This matchup is the best yet. For an aging Steven Jackson this may end up being his last great game. We'll have to see how it plays out.


#12 C.J. Spiller - (#23 on Fantasy Pros)
I am back on my C.J. Spiller love train! The Jags have been a shutdown defense lately, but I have a really good feeling about C.J. Spiller this week. If the Bills are going to win, they need to get their run game going this week, that was proven last week. Fred Jackson does the dirty work, the short yard gains and all that. But Spiller lights it up and I strongly believe the Jags are a great defense to get a 50 yard+ carry. Thats all it takes for the man.

#13 Zac Stacy - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
Another somewhat tough matchup for Stacy. He got a touchdown last week but not much else. In addition, his role in the passing game has been shut down. He has 4 catches for -4 yards over the past 2 weeks. He is a decent shot for a touchdown, but anything over 60-70 yards here would be a success.

#14 Danny Woodhead - (#30 on Fantasy Pros)
Woodhead is coming off a 90 yard game with a TD. I cannot imagine why people would rank him so far down. The Broncos have given up 5 rec. TDs to running backs on the season. Woodhead is more likely than any other RB out there to add to that list. I expect a big passing game, and Woodhead will be integral to that.

Quick thoughts...I'd really like to avoid playing Andre Brown if it can be helped. I expect the Giants to fall behind quickly, eliminating much of the running game. Assuming Toby Gerhart plays, he is a decent flex. He performed admirably after Peterson went down last week. As much as I like Spiller, I also feel like Andre Ellington has a great chance for a big run as well. I love the upside and I would play him over Chris Johnson who faces the Cards - the #1 fantasy D vs RBs. Its not a bad matchup for Bobby Rainey but I'm not high on him. After his 80 yard run, Rainey struggled heavily last week. If you're desperate, take a flier on Stevan Ridley if he got dropped. I think he comes back as the main rusher for NE, not that it means too much right now. Jordan Todman is another one worth adding. He would be good if MJD is ruled out.

Week 14 55 & 5 RB Rankings

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Matt Forte
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Knowshon Moreno
5. Eddie Lacy
6. DeMarco Murray
7. Reggie Bush
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Marshawn Lynch
10. Le'Veon Bell*
11. Alfred Morris
12. Andre Brown
13. Maurice Jones-Drew
14. Fred Jackson
15. Ben Tate
16. Frank Gore
17. Bobby Rainey
18. Shane Vereen
19. C.J. Spiller
20. Chris Johnson
21. Zac Stacy
22. Giovani Bernard
23. Steven Jackson
24. Ryan Mathews
25. Chris Ivory*
26. Rashad Jennings*
27. Danny Woodhead
28. Ray Rice
29. Donald Brown
30. Pierre Thomas
31. Stevan Ridley*
32. Andre Ellington
33. Joique Bell
34. Mike Tolbert
35. Lamar Miller
36. Rashard Mendenhall
37. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
38. Darren Sproles
39. Chris Ogbonnaya
40. Montee Ball
41. Willis McGahee
42. Dennis Johnson
43. Jonathan Stewart*
44. Bilal Powell
45. Darren McFadden
46. Roy Helu
47. Jacquizz Rodgers
48. James Starks
49. Robert Turbin
50. Michael Bush
51. Bernard Pierce
52. Trent Richardson
53. Antone Smith
54. LeGarrette Blount
55. Jordan Todman

#7 Reggie Bush - (#10 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
I've been one of the people promoting Reggie's Home/Away splits all year and specifically how he doesn't get enough work on the road. So I'm still a bit concerned about that here against an Eagles defense that has been kind of decent lately. But I still really like this matchup for the Lions and I think he will do well enough that he is pretty much a must start.

#11 Alfred Morris - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)
Morris has definitely been somewhat disappointing over the past few games. He has had a few tough matchups. The Chiefs are actually vulnerable against the Run, and I do believe Morris will take advantage of that.

#12 Andre Brown - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
I was low on him last week and he ended up with a solid game solely because of two TDs. He has a somewhat tough matchup this week and he'll need touchdowns again to do well and with this offense I have a hard time seeing him continuing to get as many goal line opportunities as he does.

#14 Fred Jackson - (#24 on Fantasy Pros)
Fred Jackson didn't have a great YPC last week, but I was still impressed with his play. Now he gets a much tougher matchup so its hard to predict how he will do, but he is still their goal line guy and there is no doubt about that. If he gets the opportunities, it will be a good day.

#15 Ben Tate - (#12 on Fantasy Pros)
Tate's situation is one where you probably have to start him, but I wouldn't feel good about it. He just came off a 3 TD performance, but right before that he faced the Jags and got completely owned by them. Now on a Thursday in Jacksonville? Its hard for me to feel super optimistic, but its hard for me to be super cautious after last week as well. So this is where I put him. He is clearly the #1 and the guy they want to be #1, otherwise Dennis Johnson would have been after getting more carries and looking better against JAX the first time.

Deeper thoughts...Bobby Rainey has obviously quieted down quite a lot, but after seeing Steven Jackson rumble against this Bills defense a lot, I like Rainey quite a bit this week. C.J. Spiller broke out last week, but this week is not a great matchup. But for Spiller its always just a matter of whether he gets a big run or not. Thats also how it works for Chris Johnson, to a lesser extent. I see this as a game that the Titans will throw a lot in. CJ2K gets involved in the passing game but it will still lower his opportunities quite a bit. Its a shame Rashad Jennings got hurt because he was running away with the RB1 job in Oakland. Now its probable that McFadden will get a decent amount of touches in a 60/40 share or something similar. I really like this matchup for Andre Ellington. I think it could easily be a game where he has one or two big runs and never stops, but you don't want to bank on it with the way he is used.

Week 13: 55 & 5 RB Rankings

Week 13 marks the end of bye weeks. That means the deeper parts of the rankings get richer. If you're desperate, you might have a better chance taking a flier on someone in the 30s if you have to. Of course three of those games will be knocked out on Thursday. There is always a little worry that Thursday games are a little sloppier, the offenses struggle a bit. It can be true, but I wouldn't let it affect you. Last Thursday, Jimmy Graham did great, Pierre Thomas had 100+ yards like many expected, and even Harry Douglas had 80+ yards and was a solid PPR option. So don't let that worry you, and lets jump into the rankings.

1. Matt Forte*
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Reggie Bush
4. Jamaal Charles
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. Rashad Jennings
8. Eddie Lacy
9. Knowshon Moreno*
10. Chris Johnson
11. Zac Stacy*
12. Andre Brown
13. Alfred Morris
14. Giovani Bernard
15. DeMarco Murray
16. Frank Gore
17. Le'Veon Bell
18. Fred Jackson
19. Maurice Jones-Drew
20. Pierre Thomas
21. Chris Ivory*
22. Shane Vereen
23. C.J. Spiller
24. Danny Woodhead
25. Bobby Rainey
26. Steven Jackson
27. Rashard Mendenhall
28. Andre Ellington
29. Ryan Mathews*
30. Ben Tate
31. Ray Rice
32. Donald Brown
33. Brandon Bolden
34. Chris Ogbonnaya
35. Benny Cunningham
36. Darren Sproles
37. Trent Richardson
38. Darren McFadden*
39. Bilal Powell
40. James Starks
41. Brandon Jacobs
42. Mike Tolbert
43. Dennis Johnson
44. Lamar Miller
45. Stevan Ridley
46. Brian Leonard
47. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
48. DeAngelo Williams
49. Joique Bell
50. Jacquizz Rodgers
51. Jonathan Stewart
52. Michael Bush
53. Shonn Greene
54. Roy Helu
55. Mike Gillislee

#3 Reggie Bush - (#9 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

Reggie gets a good matchup and he is at home. I have previously mentioned (if not here, then on Twitter multiple times) that Reggie plays much better at home. I love this matchup and I think Bush will find a lot of holes and be used heavily in the passing game.

#7 Rashad Jennings - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)

Another where I love the matchup. Dallas has been dreadful vs the run game without Sean Lee. There is some worry that DMC will steal a majority of the carries, but the Raiders say thats not the case, and I believe them. I fully expect 100+ yards and a touchdown here.

#11 Zac Stacy - (#16 on Fantasy Pros)

This is part injury part matchup for most I am sure. Either way, if Zac Stacy is out there, you want to start him. He has been nothing but impressive so far, and there is no reason it should stop even against the 49ers.

#12 Andre Brown - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

I was surprised I was this far off the consensus here. I really like Andre Brown, I just don't think he is elite. I don't think he is better than Frank Gore. Gore struggled mightily against the Redskins. I'm not saying Brown will struggle, but there are more talented players you can choose from.

#14 Giovani Bernard - (#19 on Fantasy Pros)

I'm not sure if I'm getting sucked into a love of the talent with Bernard or not. But watching him play, its hard to resist. Regardless, a very good matchup and he has had a week of rest, it should bode very well for him.

#16 Frank Gore - (#6 on Fantasy Pros)

Another player I am surprised how low  I am on. I look at my top 10 and I feel the only aggressive play is Rashad Jennings, everyone else is so clearly undeniably ahead of Gore this week in my opinion. He hasn't rushed over 100 yards in 5-straight games. Four of those he had a YPC under 4.0. Its a great matchup but you have to wonder if the ancient RB is slowing down as the season goes on.

Deeper Thoughts...My boy C.J. Spiller is in a great matchup and its one of those weeks where he could go off or he could disappoint again. My ranking reflects the point where I feel the reward outweighs the risk. Bobby Rainey faces another tough matchup again. Its possible people might drop him if he does poorly here, keep an eye out for that because I don't think he's done. I like Donald Brown best of the Colts RBs, but I have zero confidence playing either, and you should feel the same way. I still hate Ray Rice. Lamar Miller has been terrible since the O-line debacle, wouldn't even consider playing him. Likewise no faith in Stevan Ridley. After his third straight game with a fumble, I would be very surprised if he is the starter and if he gets more than a few carries. Ranking will change IF we hear otherwise. 

Week 13 Waiver Grabs

We are down to the wire here and its becoming must-win time for a lot of people, so waiver moves are especially important. I've ranked the 3-5 best guys to pick up at each position. QBs are for this week only and the rest are a mix of overall and for this week only. Most of these rankings are for players 50% owned or less, but there is an exception or two. For example, I doubt Alex Smith is owned in every competitive league despite his higher %.

QBs: (Yahoo Ownership %)

1. Josh McCown (19%) @ Minnesota

2. Matt Flynn (2%) @ Lions

3. Alex Smith (61%) vs. Broncos

4. E.J. Manuel (8%) vs. Falcons

Josh McCown has been really impressive. After two tough matchups where he got a passable grade, he now faces a much easier defense and should play really well. Flynn is much riskier because we've only seen him play half a game, but its a great matchup and he knows the system well. I have high expectations. Next you have Alex Smith who has been pretty good lately, and has another great matchup. At the same time, I don't think its fair to continually expecting 20 points, so thats why he is lower. Lastly we have the forgotten Manuel in a great matchup as well. He can run a little, and he will potentially have all of his WRs. Its promising

WRs:

1. Michael Crabtree (31%)

2. Nate Burleson (25%)

3. Rod Streater (14%)

4. Robert Woods (7%)

5. Marvin Jones (40%)

Percy Harvin got a ton of hype in his return. Crabtree on the other hand has gotten some, but its way less than Harvin. I really think Crabtree can outperform Harvin going forward. His team needs him more. He is a must add now. Burleson will probably be the top add after last week, and he should definitely be a high priority, specifically in PPR leagues. With Calvin across from him, he should do very well. Streater is a guy that I think has taken over the #1 WR role for Oakland with McGloin in. Two straight good weeks and I like him. *If* Woods is back, he is one you want for this week only. Atlanta is a joke.

RBs:

1. Chris Ogbonnaya (29%)

2. Benny Cunningham (5% - a must for Stacy owners)

3. Donald Brown (41%)

4. Dennis Johnson (41%)

5. Jacquizz Rodgers (41%)

6. Bilal Powell (39%)

I really like the Silent G Ogbonnaya. Over his last two games he has 12 carries for 95 yards. That is a fantastic 7.91 YPC. Unfortunately he has also fumbled in both of those games. He is also their best receiving back. That kind of talent (vs. basically no talent at all in Whittaker/McGahee) wins out. He might not be great this upcoming week, but he is absolutely worth a speculative add for the owner in need of an RB. Next is Cunningham. He had a great game against a terrible defense, so take from that what you will. He is definitely talented. His upside is limited by whether he gets any time. If Stacy is fine, Cunningham will be used sparingly. But he is worth the add on the chance that Stacy is out. A lot of people will sour on Brown after he inexplicably got three carries, but in most games they won't be down by double digits, and Brown will see his time.

TEs:

1. Delanie Walker (49%)

2. Tim Wright (19%)

3. Owen Daniels (16%)

3. John Carlson (12%)

5. Rob Housler (15%)

Slim pickings at Tight End compared to the rest of the positions. The one guy that definitely isn't a streaming option is Walker. Fitzpatrick really likes him. His most recent game wasn't stellar, but it was better than a lot of other middling options. And with Fitz, I think that could be as bad as it gets. I'd take a floor of 4-5 points every week if you don't have a top 5 TE. Tim Wright is next. He won't always be a top option but he has 60-70 yard upside every week. Owen Daniels is an intriguing. His return has quietly crept closer. If you don't need a tight end right away, he is a great add.

Week 12 55 & 5 RB Rankings

1. Matt Forte
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Frank Gore
5. Zac Stacy
6. Knowshon Moreno
7. Alfred Morris
8. Reggie Bush
9. Eddie Lacy
10. Andre Brown
11. Stevan Ridley
12. Pierre Thomas
13. DeMarco Murray
14. Chris Johnson
15. Chris Ivory
16. Rashad Jennings
17. Le'veon Bell
18. Ben Tate
19. Bobby Rainey
20. Danny Woodhead
21. Darren Sproles
22. Shane Vereen
23. Ryan Mathews
24. Maurice Jones-Drew
25. Chris Ogbonnaya
26. Ray Rice
27. Andre Ellington
28. Jacquizz Rodgers
29. Steven Jackson
30. Lamar Miller
31. Joique Bell*
32. Donald Brown
33. DeAngelo Williams
34. Mike Tolbert
35. Montee Ball
36. Rashard Mendenhall
37. Brian Leonard
38. Trent Richardson
39. Jonathan Stewart
40. Shonn Greene
41. Willis McGahee
42. Kendall Hunter
43. Antone Smith
44. LeGarrette Blount
45. Daniel Thomas
46. Toby Gerhart
47. James Starks
48. Brandon Jacobs
49. Marcel Reece
50. Benny Cunningham
51. Dennis Johnson
52. Bernard Pierce
53. Roy Helu
54. Bilal Powell
55. Michael Bush

#6 Knowshon Moreno - (#9 on Fantasy Pros Conensus Rankings)
I know people would be down on him after seeing Montee Ball get both goal line rush TDs last week. I am not worried. It seemingly went unnoticed, but Moreno got a season-high 27 carries last week! He didn't do much, but that is very promising. He is very clearly still the preferred option and I am not concerned.

#10 Andre Brown - (#6 on Fantasy Pros)
I am surprised many see Andre as the 6th best option this week. He is a good running back on a team that likes to run, but he is not a great running back. Even against a bad Dallas run defense minus Sean Lee, I don't see him exploding. He will still be a very good option and at #10 is still a must start.

#11 Stevan Ridley - (#16 on Fantasy Pros)
Here is another situation where I think people are overreacting. First we must remember that Carolina is very good against the run. Shane Vereen was much better suited against that team as a receiving RB. Secondly, Vereen is strictly a pass-catching back based on what we saw last week. He played in 34 snaps and 33 of them were passing plays. What that means is that Ridley and Vereen are not competing for touches. The only potential scare here is that Ridley might see reduced time because of his fumble. If I hear anything on that front, I'll adjust my ranking.

#12 Pierre Thomas - (#18 on Fantasy Pros)
I love this matchup for Pierre. Did you know he has had six straight games with at least 80 total yards? He also has 4 TDs in that span. In a great matchup, I think he gets a lot of action and a lot of points.

#15 Chris Ivory - (#23 on Fantasy Pros)
Another ranking I don't completely understand. I had Ivory 15th last week as well and he lived up to the ranking. He is very clearly the #1 RB on this team and they will run a lot with their rookie QB. Speaking of Geno, there is simply no way he can be as bad as he was last week, and that will open up more opportunities for Ivory as well.

#18 Ben Tate - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
Another ranking I am apparently not in sync with the consensus. Tate is a good RB, but people are underrating the Jags defense. They have done a nice job shutting RBs down lately. Considering how poor they have played against the pass, it doesn't make sense to try to run a ton either. If Kubiak is smart, this is a great opportunity to let Case Keenum throw all day and build his confidence, reducing Tate to a good but not great option.

Deeper Thoughts...Temper expectations for Bobby Rainey. He played amazingly well last week, but the Lions are a tougher run defense and there is a reason Rainey was cut from the lacking Browns. He's not fool's gold, but he isn't going to be a superstar either. I know Ryan Mathews has been playing at a high level as well, but its a tough matchup and one that better fits Danny Woodhead. Maurice Jones-Drew has scored some touchdowns lately, but otherwised looked terrible. I'm not interested in starting him as more than an average flex option. As I explained on twitter, I still want no part of Ray Rice. Sell high if you can. I ranked Jacquizz Rodgers higher than Steven Jackson. I still think he fits the Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead mold and if they give him the ball more, they will get better results. As indicated earlier, I'm a big believer in Knowshon still, I wouldn't expect much from Montee Ball but just because of the offense he's always a possibility for a TD if you need a flier.