We made it through another pandemic offseason and this time around the NFL and fantasy players are more prepared. We’ve got an extra game and extra week. Week 17 is going to be important and that will feel weird! I wanted to jot down some thoughts for the season just to have some of my beliefs for the season ahead recorded. Here they are:
Even in 2QB leagues, it won’t be too hard to find QBs on the waiver.
In 2018, 68 QBs saw the field and 52 scored at least 5 points. 5 points is my “Okay, if I’m in a real tight pinch, at least I am getting SOMETHING here”. Note this is 2QB, the bar would be a little higher in superflex but you are still better off taking a chance on a QB and possibly getting 10 points than whatever W/R/T you would have put in. Continuing on, in 2019 74 QBs played and 58 scored at least 5 points. In 2020 we had COVID issues and things got weird. EIGHTY-FOUR QBs played and 64 scored at least 5 points! Even if we exclude Week 17 you still have guys like Jeff Driskel, Ryan Finley, Garrett Gilbert, and even Colt McCoy managed a start. We are in strange times and it is easier than ever to find QBs off the wire in your start-2 leagues. So don’t fret and overpay for someone like Andy Dalton. There is a good chance in any given week you can find a guy on the wire.
The same goes for very deep leagues. I am in a 20 team 1QB league with 40 QBs rostered. Everyone is fretting about having a bye week plan or two options. I am the only team with one QB and I took Josh Allen. Obviously I don’t need to worry about a backup option unless he gets hurt in which case I am screwed anyway. I just need a bye week fill in for Week 7 and I am betting I can get it.
Position by position, thoughts, predictions and even some bold predictions:
Ben Roethlisberger will be quite bad this year and finish outside the 20 and even possibly get benched for performance.
Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz are two guys outside of FantasyPros top 20 draft rankings that finish in the top 15. Daniel Jones in particular surprises people by being pretty good with a healthy and talented offense around him.
Zach Wilson finishes first among rookie QBs.
RB thoughts:
Jonathan Taylor, drafted in the mid-late 1st as the 7th-9th RB off the board usually, finishes as a top 3 RB with a good shot at RB1.
James Robinson puts up another top-twelve season and establishes himself as the RB1 even when Travis Etienne returns in 2022.
Mike Davis (RB24 FantasyPros) finishes top 15.
Darrell Henderson and Gus Edwards - the guys that benefited from injury - both finish outside the top 24.
Javonte Williams is a top 15 RB in the second half.
James Conner outscores Chase Edmonds.
Gio Bernard is a solid flex play with Tom Brady. He gets at least 50 receptions, which he hasn't hit since 2017 and only twice in his career.
WR Thoughts:
I REALLY like Terrace Marshall, but the QB play and two good WRs ahead of him will likely keep him from having a big rookie season. Still, he is one to watch in dynasty that I just had to mention. If I wrote an article about a rookie this year, it would have been him. (Chase Claypool last year)
AJ Brown has his best season yet despite Julio taking a lot of targets.
No Tampa receiver finishes top 15.
Corey Davis finishes top 20 with 150+ targets.
DJ Chark (WR40) is a top 24 receiver.
Michael Thomas comes back huge in the second half and is a top 5 WR from Week 10 on, reestablishing his value.
Jakobi Meyers, Henry Ruggs and Mecole Hardman are all ranked outside the top 50 but finish top 40. Jakobi is top 30.
Tyrell Williams (WR72) finishes top 36 as the target hog WR1 in Detroit.
If I’m looking to highlight a guy outside the top 100 WRs, it would be Quez Watkins in Philly. He played a large role in Travis Fulgham not making the 53. He’s got blazing speed and had some big numbers at Southern Miss. He is one to watch for sure.
TE:
I just can’t get behind Kyle Pitts doing anything exceptional in year 1. I’m predicting something like 550 yards and 6 TDs which would be great for a rookie TE but far below what seems to be the expectation.
I am firmly in the Robert Tonyan > Logan Thomas camp. I’ve seen these guys ranked very closely and both cited as big 2020 breakouts. I think it is far more likely the Tonyan keeps it up despite his crazy efficiency.
I think Gerald Everett paired with Russell Wilson is a great match. No real prediction here, I just like it. The targets and yardage will be tough to come by with a superb 1-2 punch at WR these days, but he should do well with touchdowns.
