Breaking Down The Targets: Indianapolis Colts

Back in 2012, I won my first fantasy championship with Andrew Luck at the helm. To say I have a man crush is putting it lightly. In order, it may go Harrison Ford, and then Andrew Luck. You'd think it'd be my own team's quarterback but I mean...just look at Eli Manning.

I'm not going to lie to any of you reading this. There isn't all that much exciting about the Colts offense for this upcoming season. It's not that they won't have great offensive pieces, it's just it's not going to look that different from last year. So why am I even bothering? Probably because "boring" is my middle name.

2016 Colts Passing Attempts

Last season saw the Colts lowest amount of pass attempts since 2013 with 584 passes attempted. The Colts ranked 13th in the league in pass attempts, which isn't that bad but they are usually at least in the top ten. You might say it's because Luck missed a game, and Tolzien is definitely no Luck. However, in the 2015 season the Colts threw more than they did last season and Luck only accounted for half of all the pass attempts. 

Meanwhile, the team was 16th in rushing attempts with 404, led by fantasy Frankenstein Frank Gore. Every season you think it might be Frank Gore's last he borrows from Dikembe Mutumbo and wags his finger "no no no no". Trying to figure out which season may actually be his last is a fool's errand, but now that I said that this will clearly be it right?

To give you a sense of what the breakdown looked like last season check out the table below:

Player Name	Targets	Receptions	Yardage	TD
T.Y Hilton	155	91	1448	6
Jack Doyle	75	59	584	5
Phillip Dorsett	59	33	528	2
Donte Moncrief	56	30	307	7
Frank Gore	47	38	277	4
Robert Turbin	35	26	179	1
Chester Rodgers	34	19	273	0
Josh Ferguson	26	20	136	0

Yikes. This offense clearly had a hard time finding anyone not named T.Y. to throw to. To be fair no wide receiver outside of T.Y. actually played all sixteen games. The Colts must have had a curse placed on them last year because they certainly had trouble staying healthy.

2017 Predictions

Even though it brings a single tear to my eye I have to admit there's reason to believe Andrew Luck may throw less this year. He is coming off a shoulder injury, and at this point, he's going to miss training camp.  I believe in his abilities when he does return to the field, and hopefully, his O-line improves enough to prevent him getting rammed by the trucks that represent the other teams' front sevens. There is reason to be optimistic here as the Colts offensive line is very young while at the same time returning all five starters from last year. Le'Raven Clark who was taken in the 3rd round last year is expected to push for a starting spot.

Having said that, I actually don't think the team will attempt fewer passes though. While Gore is still a capable running back, this team is one that wants to air it out. If Moncrief and the other receiving options (including newly added Kamar Aiken) can stay healthy, I'd actually expect the pass attempts to go up. I don't think Luck will throw 600 times this season, but a slight uptick to at least 590 seems about right.

Once again T.Y Hilton will be the top dog. Maybe I was just conditioned from a young age to love things with T.Y. in it because of beanie babies, but he always finds a way onto my fantasy teams. T.Y. hasn't seen less than 130 targets in the past four seasons, and I don't expect that to change at all.  Hilton will see 150 targets this coming season, and if you draft him you'll be saying "T.Y" very much.

Next up is Donte Moncrief. I've had a lot of debates about Moncrief. I personally used to think he was overrated/overhyped. A league mate of mine argued that he isn't because of his touchdown scoring abilities and because we haven't seen him as a 16 game starter.  However, his yards per rec have decreased every year since his rookie season. That's not exactly a trend you like to see when considering a "breakout" player.

Despite that, I think Moncrief doesn't have much in the way of competition. Phillip Dorsett has been nothing but a disappointment, and Kamar Aiken is more suited to a slot role. I expect Moncrief to see 120 targets, and he will play with a chip on his shoulder now that I've called him out!

Jack Doyle is the new king of the hill tight end in town after showing so well last season that the Colts shipped Dwayne Allen to the Patriots. A friend of mine calls him "The Answer" at tight end, and he may not be wrong. Before getting too excited about the "The Answer", just remember that the Colts haven't targeted three receivers over 100 times in a season at least since 2010.

That doesn't mean the Colts don't like to target their tight ends. In 2015, Colby Fleener saw 84 looks. The year before he saw 92 with Dwayne Allen seeing 50! I think Doyle did enough to warrant a slight bump from his 75 last year up to 85 this year. 

Here's where things get a bit more interesting. Look at this stat line from 2015:

Targets	Receptions	Yardage	TD
127	75	944	5

What if I told you that guy has a chance to be the Colts WR3? You'd probably assume it was their former first round pick Phillip Dorsett right? Wrong! That line belongs to the un-drafted Kamar Aiken who was the defacto WR1 for the Ravens that year. 

Aiken hasn't done much otherwise, but I still think he will win out over Dorsett. Dorsett has been given every chance to be the WR2 on this team and has been more disappointing than buying a doughnut only to find out it was stale. I know he has the better workout metrics than Aiken - and you can't teach Dorsett's elite speed - but it's Aiken who I expect to see about 65 targets.

Fun fact about "Frankenstein" Gore-since coming to Indy he hasn't seen less than 47 targets in the passing game. I know Robert Turbin is considered a better passing down back than Gore, but I still expect Gore to see about 50 targets this season.  Robert "Turbo" Turbin will probably see around 30. Marlon Mack may get involved too, but he isn't exactly known for his catching ability.

The other 90 or so targets will be divided between Dorsett, Chester Rodgers, Erik Swoope, and other end of the roster guys. I'd expect Dorsett to see the biggest workload there, but nothing significant.  It's also possible one of the guys I mentioned earlier will see an increase in their workload.

Here are the projections:

Player Name	Targets	Receptions	Yardage	TD
T.Y. Hilton	150	86	1376	8
Donte Moncrief	120	70	840	7
Jack Doyle	88	62	640	7
Kamar Aiken	65	38	437	2
Frank Gore	50	30	225	1

Dynasty Slant

After last season, the dynasty community has finally bought into T.Y Hilton. He was underrated for so long, but now according to DLF July ADP he is the 11th player off the board. That's a little aggressive for my taste. I love that he is tied to Luck for years and his consistency but I have a few receivers ahead of him.

The dynasty community loves Donte Moncrief and that is proven by the fact that he is going 48th off the board and that is with him losing value in 2017. This will only be his age 24 season, and he is a touchdown scoring machine. That said, I can't get aboard with taking him ahead of guys like Golden Tate, Willie Snead, or Kelvin Benjamin who he is currently ahead of in ADP.

Jack Doyle may be the most interesting one here. You may have noticed that the catch rate I gave him is much lower than last season. Doyle had the second highest catch rate for a non-RB since 200 last season so some regression can be expected. My projections would  have him as a top ten TE in half PPR formats, and yet he is going after the likes of Austin Hooper, Duke Johnson, and Adrian Peterson.  I probably should have paid more attention to my league mate when he called Doyle "The Answer".

Aiken is currently the 216th player off the board, which means he is a great value. If Moncrief falters at all, he might even have a chance to step into the role opposite Hilton. I don't really see that happening, but at that price, he's worth stashing on your roster to find out. There is a chance that Phillip Dorsett ends up a year three breakout, but I rather roll the dice on Aiken at this point.

Finally, we get to Frank Gore. I know he's old, but he is going after Gerald Everett according to the most recent ADP data. This is the perfect time to buy Gore if you're a contender. Just make sure you have a back-up plan for next year because I'm going to be bold and say THIS IS IT. Now that I said that, Gore will go on to play 10 more seasons just to spite me.

There are some solid pieces for fantasy purposes in this offense, outside of punny fantasy teams name like "We're up all night to get Lucky", "Suit and T.Y", "Doyle Rules",  "Donte's Inferno","My Aiken Breakin Heart", and "Blood and Frank Gore". Much like the real team, you do need to keep in mind that your season could depend on Andrew Luck's shoulder. Luck could miss a few games which would drastically alter these projections. So I guess the real question you have to ask yourself is: are you feeling lucky? 

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:

www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com ,and dynastyleaguefootball.com

Tiered Dynasty Rankings - RB Tiers 1 & 2

Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal. When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages. As far as RBs specifically, the offensive line is definitely a major major factor in determining their success. Being someone that does not break down tape and evaluate offensive lines myself, I will rely on and refer to Pro Football Focus’s offensive line grades rankings here. Those rankings can be found here.

Tier 1

The top tier of running backs in dynasty consists of the three guys who have clearly set themselves apart with extremely high levels of play and consistency. That is not to say there aren’t some questions on these players - the RB position is tough and one where a guy can go from top 5 to outside the top 20 in a single season. The three players in this top tier I certainly feel very comfortable with for 2017 and I also feel pretty good about them for at least another year or two after that as well. I would put their worth at about 2.5-3 firsts.

1.) Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Age: 22

2016 PPG: 20.4 (3rd)

HC/OC: Jason Garrett / Scott Linehan

PFF O-Line Rank: 9th

How refreshing is it to see a hugely hyped fantasy prospect meet and perhaps even exceed expectations? Zeke fell just six yards short of becoming the third rookie RB to hit 2000 YFS after Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James. To see him rank right behind those guys, I’d say he is in good company! Is it bold to have him in the #1 spot after just 16 career games? (he sat out the final regular season game, but I am counting his playoff appearance here) I don’t think so. Zeke has just one career game below 80 YFS - his very first game. He also has just three of sixteen games below a 4.0 YPC. He was so consistently good with a top offensive line and emerging franchise QB that he is set up for a very long run of dynasty dominance. To look at the small negatives, I think the first thing you’ll notice is that his offensive line has a worse ranking than they’ve had in recent years. The Cowboys still have the amazingly talented trio of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Travis Frederick but they did lose two starters. Ronald Leary and Doug Free were not elite talents, but both were reliable and good. Even if their replacements are just okay, Elliott should continue putting up huge numbers. He is also not the pass-catcher that David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell have proven to be. However he is still a pretty solid receiver and I think that gets overlooked a bit. I guess the other small negative is that he has proven to be a bit of a knucklehead off the field. He has had a couple very minor incidents, but not really anything that is cause for concern yet even with the talk of a short suspension to start 2017. While I like Dak Prescott a lot, this is not a team that is going to move away from their run first identity (1st in rushing attempts, 30th in passing) anytime soon. Zeke will be a workhorse and I can’t see any reason for a fall off in the next few seasons.

2.) David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Age: 25/26

2016 PPG: 22.9 (2nd)

HC/OC: Bruce Arians / Harold Goodwin

PFF O-Line Rank: 17th

David Johnson is coming off of one of the greatest seasons an RB has ever had in the NFL. He became just the 10th player to ever put up a season of 2000+ YFS and 20+ touchdowns, and the first to do so since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, when it was far more common for a running back to get 300 carries (Tomlinson had 348 carries and 404 touches that year. DJ had 373 touches last year). He is also an incredible receiver. Through two seasons, DJ has totaled 116 catches at 11.5 yards per catch. For comparison, Le’Veon Bell has a career 8.8 yards per catch and Matt Forte is at 8.5. Neither has ever hit the 11.0 yards per catch that DJ had last year, the worse of his two seasons. What are the negatives for DJ? Most notably I am really worried about the decline of Carson Palmer. Palmer had a clear drop off in 2016 and if that happens again in 2017 (and at age 37 odds are pretty good) it could get ugly. Couple that with the fact that the Cardinals have no long-term solution in place at QB and this could quickly become a very bad offense. Also factoring in is an offensive line that is just okay. These factors may have already impacted David Johnson last year as both his yards per carry and yards per rec fell off in 2016. Johnson is talented enough and a good enough receiver that he should be able to maintain significant value in even the worst case scenario (think back to the John Skelton and Ryan Lindley era). A final note of concern - Johnson led the league in touches with 373 last year. There have been four other seasons with at least that many touches in the past five years. Two of those players missed at least eight games the following year, the other two played 14 and 15 games but saw their yards per carry drop a full yard+. (Adrian Peterson & Arian Foster in 2012, DeMarco Murray & Le’Veon Bell 2014). Thankfully it is a very small sample size so I wouldn't worry too much. David Johnson should have another huge season in 2017.

3.) Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Age: 25

2016 PPG: 23.1 PPG (1st)

HC/OC: Mike Tomlin / Todd Haley

PFF O-Line Rank: 3rd

You probably noticed that my top 3 dynasty players are in reverse order of their 2016 PPG finish. There is good reason for that. While Le’Veon presents the best of both worlds as a better runner than David Johnson and a better receiver than Zeke he has some warning signs that are greater than the other two. Firstly he’s had a two game suspension in 2015 and then three games in 2016. Both were minor instances involving marijuana, but it is definitely troubling. Perhaps more worrisome is his injury history. He suffered a Lisfranc sprain in preseason of his rookie year, a torn MCL/PCL in 2015 and a groin injury in the Steelers playoff game against the Patriots last year that required offseason surgery. His workload is extremely worrisome. Since coming into the league, Le’Veon Bell ranks 5th among RBs in touches with 1,135. However he has played just 47 games during that span while the 4 workhorse backs ahead of him have all played in at least 59 games. Looking at the per game stats, Le’Veon has averaged 24.1 touches per game in the NFL and no one else has averaged more than Demarco Murray’s 21.3. All the more shocking when you consider that he led the FBS with 382 carries and 404 touches in his final season at Michigan State. That is a shockingly high workload over the past five years for a guy that has suffered multiple serious injuries. Moving on from the concerns that keep Bell 3rd, he is still in the top tier for a good reason. He was comfortably the #1 back of 2016 in PPG with an astounding 157 YFS per game. That is a slightly higher full season pace than what Chris Johnson had when he set the single season record at 2509 YFS. Can he possibly keep it up? The Steelers certainly have the offense to do it. This team has a very good QB and one of the top WRs and offensive lines in the game. That combination will make things much easier for Bell than it will be for David Johnson. For 2017 alone there is a strong case that Bell is the top RB. However in dynasty his risk is clearly higher than the previous two RBs.

Tier 2

This next set of running backs offers a ton of upside while also all being 25 and under - because age is king with running backs. This also includes multiple rookies. Rookie running backs tend to be more successful than other positions. You need not look further back than just last year with the dominance of Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard. But to really drive the point home, there have been 28 RBs with 1000 YFS in the past decade with seven players over 1600. At WR just 10 have eclipsed the 1000 YFS mark and none higher than Odell Beckham’s 1342 (which was done in just 12 games to make it even crazier). Running backs will likely come in and produce right away. While not all of them will have staying power (Jeremy Hill, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy for some recent examples), you should feel pretty good about the top prospects in dynasty. I would value these players at somewhere between 1.75 - 2.5 firsts.

4.) Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

Age: 25

2016 PPG: 16.1 (7th)

HC/OC: Dan Quinn / Steve Sarkisian

PFF O-Line Rank: 6th

I would almost say Freeman is more in a tier 1B above the guys below him but clearly behind the top three as well. After Freeman’s rookie season with two total touchdowns and a 3.8 YPC, I was a hater. Since then he has taken two big steps forward. Yes, I said two! Despite having a slightly worse fantasy in 2016, Freeman saw marked improvement in YPC to 4.8 while also improving his yards per catch and catch percentage. He even scored touchdowns at a higher rate (he scored one less overall, but on far fewer touches thanks to Tevin Coleman’s presence). He will still have to contend with Tevin Coleman to maintain 250+ touches and the departure of offensive guru Kyle Shanahan is a little troubling, but Freeman should be able to continue his success. Much like Le’Veon Bell, Freeman has an excellent offense around him that will help make things easier. He has a top QB in Matt Ryan, a top ten offensive line, an elite WR in Julio Jones and even a very talented running back behind him which will help to keep Freeman fresh throughout the season. I do expect some regression for this offense as a whole after scoring 71 more points than the #2 team last year. That is just not likely to be sustainable. As a result Freeman will probably see a drop off going forward but there is no reason he can’t put up 13-1400 YFS with 8+ TDs for at least 2-3 more years.

5.) Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears

Age: 22/23

2016 PPG: 14.3 (8th)

HC/OC: John Fox / Dowell Loggains

PFF O-Line Rank: 5th

Ezekiel Elliott got the spotlight but Howard nearly matched him as a rookie. It was Howard that had the higher yards per carry at 5.2 and still put up over 1600 YFS despite not seeing 10+ carries until the 4th game of the season. Basically the big difference between the two was Howard’s relative lack of touchdowns. This was as much a result of the offense around him as it was anything to do with Howard’s own talent. As a receiver, results were mixed. His 10.2 yards per catch on 29 receptions was well above average, but his 58% catch rate on 50 targets was well below average for a running back. With Tarik Cohen drafted in the 4th round, Howard will likely not really be a factor in the receiving game which certainly hurts his weekly floor. PFF is surprisingly very high on the Bears O-Line. Specifically, they graded the interior of the line very highly with the addition of veteran G Josh Sitton and the high play of rookie C Cody Whitehair. This should go a long way in helping Howard once again play well in 2017. Long term hopefully Mitchell Trubisky proves to be the franchise QB because the better the offense around Howard is, the better he will do. I do see some room for an Alfred Morris like trajectory in which he surprised the league with a tremendous rookie season but has had fewer YFS with each successive year and was a backup by his 4th year in the league. If the Bears don’t improve around him by 2018, Howard could definitely go the same route. However by ranking him this highly I’m banking on that not happening.

6.) Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers

Age: 24

2016 PPG: 17.7 (4th)

HC/OC: Anthony Lynn / Ken Whisenhunt

PFF O-Line Rank: 21st

It is thanks to these last two players that I have learned to stop judging running backs so harshly after one year. After seeing how many could be successful in year one, I became rather impatient with the position. Not anymore! Melvin Gordon has followed a near identical path as Freeman with a putrid year one. In 14 games as a rookie he had a 3.5 YPC and 0 touchdowns. In year two he was a touchdown machine, scoring 12 in 13 games. It did come with a pretty bad 3.9 YPC but the o-line certainly played a part in that. Much like Devonta Freeman, Gordon showed nice receiving ability last year with 10.2 yards per catch on 41 receptions. It is also important to note that Gordon has almost no competition for touches with the likes of Kenjon Barner, Kenneth Farrow, Branden Oliver and Andre Williams being the players vying for the backup spots. Gordon should continue to be a three down back and that volume will help him keep dynasty value.

7.) Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

Age: 22

2016 PPG: N/A

HC/OC: Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett

PFF O-Line Rank: 13th

The top RB selected in the NFL draft, Fournette will bring size and power to this run game. In truth, the Jags already were big at RB with both Ivory and Yeldon both being 6’0”+ and 220+ but Fournette’s 240 lbs is on another level. It might just be the perfect time for a top RB to join this team as well. The Jaguars finally have something of a stable line. Four starters return and C Brandon Linder in particular has been excellent. At LT they swap out inconsistent Kelvin Beachum for veteran Branden Albert. Doug Marrone’s offensive line background should also help. In the two games Marrone coached last year the team saw a significant uptick in rushing from 23.9 carries per game to 29. Granted it was a small sample size but as HC of the Bills in 2013, they led the league in rush attempts with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both at 200+ carries. The Jaguars didn’t take Fournette 4th overall to not use him. The man is going to get fed and it is clear that having a strong run game is part of Marrone’s plan to improve Bortles. Fournette should comfortably clear 200 carries and 1000 rush yards. The downside for Fournette is that he can’t really catch passes and T.J. Yeldon has shown some decent ability there so in full PPR leagues so you do have to knock him down a bit for that. In the past five seasons only six RBs had been drafted in the first round but four of them had 250+ touches and put up 1294+ yards from scrimmage in their rookie seasons. A 5th was Melvin Gordon who has already appeared on this list. Even in the worst case (save for injury), I see Fournette as a reliable workhorse and at age 22 that goes a long way in dynasty.

8.) Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

Age: 23

2016 PPG: 11.0 (25th)

HC/OC: Sean McVay / Matt LaFleur

PFF O-Line Rank: 18th

If you’re reading this I’m sure you don’t need me to tell you of the disappointment that was Todd Gurley’s sophomore campaign. Everyone knows that. It gets interesting when you try to pinpoint how much of the blame Gurley gets when when he had a mediocre coach and a totally inept o-line and passing game. The Rams have made some significant additions to try and change that. Most notably they brought in a very young and rather inexperienced Sean McVay to be HC. That’s not to say his resume as OC for the Redskins the past three seasons isn’t impressive. He helped turn Kirk Cousins into the potential franchise QB he is today. Alongside him is a first time OC in Matt LaFleur. LaFleur was the QB coach in Washington from 2010-13 and then the Falcons QB coach the past two seasons so he also has a promising resume, though also inexperienced. In terms of players, they added top Tackle Andrew Whitworth to the offensive line. He is 35 years old now but still had PFF’s highest pass blocking grade last year. Barring a colossal drop off, he should be a huge upgrade for both the run and pass game. The Rams did lose Kenny Britt but added several receivers in the draft to try and offset the loss. So will this all help Todd Gurley? Of course. The question is really how much it will help. After having the second lowest scoring team of the past five seasons, there is really nowhere to go but up. The Rams could have scored 100 more points last year and it would still only be good enough for 25th. That is underwhelming but would have been huge for Gurley’s numbers. I think it is a realistic achievement for the Rams in 2017. As long as they aren’t one of the worst offensive teams of the last five years again Gurley can be a very good fantasy back. To talk about Gurley himself a bit, despite coming into the NFL with a torn ACL, he hasn’t missed a single game since returning from that injury. He is a good pass catcher with 64 receptions in 29 games. That helped him stay at 1212 YFS last year despite a 3.2 YPC. With Lance Dunbar being the most notable backup RB on the team, Gurley should continue to see a ton of touches and should also see a nice improvement in efficiency. There is certainly risk here but not without major upside as well.

9.) Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Age: 21

2016 PPG: N/A

HC/OC: Ron Rivera / Mike Shula

PFF O-Line Rank: 12th

The Panthers wasted no time bringing in offensive improvements after a 2016 season that would have to be considered a disaster. McCaffrey is a significant addition to both the run game and the pass game. Cam Newton has never really had a top receiving option out of the backfield but that should change this year. McCaffrey had 99 receptions in three seasons at Stanford while also rushing 250+ times the last two seasons at a 6.0+ YPC each of those two years. There has been some debate about just how many carries McCaffrey will see in 2017 and whether Jonathan Stewart will still be significantly involved. If you play it a little safe and put him at 150 carries with a 4.4 YPC (660 yards) and 40 recs at 8.5 YPR (340) that puts him at 1000 YFS and seems easily doable. A more aggressive projection to forecast the higher end of his potential would be something like 220 carries at a 4.8 YPC (1056) with 55 recs at 9.1 YPR (500) for nearly 1600 YFS. Those numbers don’t sound ridiculous to me. McCaffrey is that talented with the combine numbers to back it up outside of a paltry bench press. The Panthers O-line was just okay last year but has some improvements for this year. Most notably, longtime C Ryan Kalil is hopefully healthy after playing just 9 games last year. T Michael Oher played just 3 games while dealing with lingering concussion symptoms. He is supposedly still dealing with those symptoms. If he can return it’s great, but at this point its looking more likely that he shouldn’t be counted on. The team signed Ryan Kalil’s younger brother Matt to a big contract. His play has been inconsistent at best but they are clearly relying on him to be a significant piece of the line. They also drafted Taylor Moton in the second round and he can play both G and T. Those additions should help McCaffrey and the offense as a whole succeed. Thanks to McCaffrey’s excellent receiving ability, he has such a high floor and I have no second thoughts about him as my #2 rookie RB or in my top ten overall RBs.

10.) Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Age: 21

2016 PPG: N/A

HC/OC: Marvin Lewis / Ken Zampese

PFF O-Line Rank: 31st

The Bengals took Mixon 48th overall despite knowing the criticism and media pushback that would follow as a result of punching a young woman in the face and seriously injuring her. The Bengals had a clear goal to improve their running game after both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard (who also tore his ACL midseason) had a sub-4.0 YPC. Additionally their offensive line will be significantly worse in 2017 with the departures of Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. They did not bring in any significant pieces via FA or draft, signing Andre Smith and hoping former 2nd rounder Jake Fisher can step up. They would need an elite talent at RB to make up for this major downgrade at OL and they may have it in Joe Mixon. Although never being a true starter with Samaje Perine around, Mixon had some pretty eye popping numbers in just two seasons at Oklahoma. Mixon had over 1800 YFS and 15 TDs on just 224 touches last year. Highlights included 377 YFS and 5 TDs against Texas Tech and 180 YFS and 2 TD in the Sugar Bowl vs Auburn, completely outshining Perine (86 yards, 1 TD). The talent is very very real. How much you want to penalize Mixon for his assault charge is up to each individual. While a truly heinous act, I’m not sure it has much of a predictive nature for future risk. As a result I have kept him in top ten RBs and I have chosen to focus on his talent. For fantasy purposes, the real question is whether he can overcome a bad offensive line that has the chance to be downright awful. He is a pretty good receiver but I’m not sure they use him in that role if Giovani Bernard returns fully healthy. That would be a shame but it’s definitely something the Bengals would do. Best-case scenario is that Mixon proves to be so talented that Marvin Lewis has no choice but to utilize him as a three down back and he plays at a star level. On the flip side Mixon’s floor is far lower than Fournette and McCaffrey thanks to stronger competition and a worse o-line. However bad Jeremy Hill may be, he has been very successful at the goal line with 30 touchdowns over three seasons. If Hill vultures touchdowns and Giovani Bernard is the main receiving back, Mixon’s rookie numbers will be very underwhelming. Bernard already has a contract extension in place, but Jeremy Hill is most likely gone after 2017 so that is a positive. I think Mixon is too talented and a possibly disappointing 2017 could be followed by a very nice 2018 and beyond.

Breaking Down The Targets: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ahoy ye scurvy dogs. Today be the day we be breakin' down targets for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now listen well as I regale ye with a tale of potential treasures.

There will be more pirates references, but I promise that's it for the pirate talk this article. It'd be just as irritating to write that way for a full article as I imagine it would be to read. Without further ado, let's break down some targets, shall we?

The Buccaneers Passing Attempts

Last season the Bucs attempted 578 passes, which was good for 16th best last season. In the past seven seasons, they haven't had three receivers break 100 targets together once. In fact, the only receiver who has consistently seen more than 100 in the past three seasons is Mike Evans. Now there is a man who is worth two gold doubloons!

In fact, last season Mike Evans saw 173 targets of the 578. The 30% share can reasonably be explained by the lack of Vincent Jackson playing all sixteen games, but Mike Evans is clearly one of the greatest Buccaneers since Captain Jack Morgan! The Buccaneers were also 7th most in the league in rushing attempts, despite the fact that Doug "Muscle Hamster" Martin only played eight games.

Here's a breakdown of what the receiving totals looked like:

Player Name	Targets	Catches	Yardage	TDS
Mike Evans	173	96	1321	12
Adam Humphries	83	55	622	2
Cameron Brate	81	57	660	8
Russell Shepard	40	23	341	2
Charles Sims	32	24	190	1
Vincent Jackson	32	15	173	0
Cecil Shorts	27	11	152	0

2017 Predictions

Before getting into the passing attempts for the season, let's touch on the major additions to the crew.  The team added O.J. Howard in the first round,  Chris Godwin in the third round, and Jeremy McNichols in the fifth round of the 2017 draft. They also added DeSean Jackson via free agency. All of these guys can be considered additions to the passing game, even the running back McNichols. Because of that, I think we can say that Winston will let his cannon of an arm loose a little more this season. 

Working with around 600 passes for the team, how many should Mike Evans see? Fun fact: he hasn't seen less than 122 targets in a season in his entire career. Evans will see a dip from last year's 173, but nothing too crazy. Expect to see him get 165 targets.

Before we get into detail on Chris Godwin or DeSean Jackson, a quick note about Vincent Jackson - prior to the past two seasons he had never seen less than 140 targets with the Bucs. Some of that can be attributed to the emergence of Mike Evans, but not playing 16 games took a pretty big toll on him. Someone is going to be the person to inherit that large target share for the WR2.

DeSean Jackson is the most likely to become the Quartermaster (wide receiver 2). I know you are drooling over what DeSean Jackson can do with Winston throwing him the deep ball. Plus it seems pretty fitting that Djax would be the direct replacement to Vjax right? DeSean Jackson will see 105 targets this season.

Both O.J Howard and Cameron Brate are built like cannon balls making it incredibly difficult to project which one of them will win the starting job. I know there are some of you who are expecting a Howard break out in year one, but here's a question for you: how many times in the past ten years has a rookie tight end seen at least 80 targets? If you answered twice, you won a skeleton key congratulations! I expect them to see 120 targets combined, with 80 of them going to Brate.

Meanwhile, Adam Humphries is the man with the black spot on the team. He will continue to man the slot for now, but his time is coming. I expect about 50 targets to go his way.

Charles Sims used to be the golden boy of the crew, but he tore his meniscus last year. That's not an easy injury to bounce back from for a guy who relies heavily on his legs. Jeremy McNichols is also recovering from a shoulder injury, but given his youth, this will prove to be an interesting camp battle. We also can't forget about Jacquizz "Jolly" Rodgers either. I ultimately expect Sims to keep his job, but given the suspension of Martin, he may be pressed into starting duty.  The running backs as a group will see 110 targets, and 55 will go to Sims.

The other 50 targets will go to Chris Godwin, and then their other end of roster guys. I think Chris Godwin has great talent, but it's going to take an injury to either DeSean or Evans to make him worthwhile this year. One day though defenders on the other team will be hearing, "You will always remember the day you almost caught Captain Chris Godwin!"

Below is the table of projections:

Player Name	Targets	Catches	Yardage	TDS
Mike Evans	165	91	1274	10
DeSean Jackson	105	61	1098	8
Cameron Brate	80	56	672	6
Charles Sims	55	40	320	2
Adam Humphries	50	33	333	2
O.J Howard	40	28	364	4

Dynasty Slant

As of DLF's July ADP, Mike Evans is the no 2 player off the board. He has rightfully earned that, and you'll have to give up your most valuable gems if you even want to try to acquire him. If I'm his owner, I'm not selling for anything less than a proven asset + two early firsts.

DeSean Jackson, on the other hand, is going after the likes of Kevin White, Zach Ertz, Breshad Perriman, and Kyle Rudolph. I understand he's 30, but given his situation, this seems like an ideal time to buy as a contender. If you're not a contending team, I'd wait until he built some value in season and then talk a contender into paying you the equivalent of a treasure island.

Cameron Brate is going so criminally low, we might need to hang drafters in the gallows. I love some of the guys ahead of him as sleepers, but at the 170th overall that's a great value. Don't forget, this guy is only 26 himself. If the Bucs decide somehow to get rid of him, you better believe a TE needy team would pick him up (looking at you Ravens).

Somehow Charles Sims is going after J.J. Nelson, Dwayne Allen, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Speaking of Jenkins, was there a better name for a guy on the Buccaneers than something that sounded like "Sea Faring"? My digressions aside, Sims is certainly someone to take a flier on if you need the running back depth.

O.J Howard is currently the 83rd player off the board. I'd probably wait until he somewhat "disappoints" this year, and then buy next season when people forget that tight ends break out late. Let's not forget that Cameron Brate is a restricted free agent next season, and there's close to zero reasons the Bucs will bring him back. I know I already said it, but it really seems like the Bucs should just trade Brate to the Ravens already and be done with it. 

There you have it. Don't be the member of your league who gets stuck in molasses. Don't be the one to get to cabin fever, and lose what sense you had. There's gold in these parts if you know where to look.

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:

www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com , dynastyleaguefootball.com, and www.spotrac.com