Ahoy ye scurvy dogs. Today be the day we be breakin' down targets for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now listen well as I regale ye with a tale of potential treasures.
There will be more pirates references, but I promise that's it for the pirate talk this article. It'd be just as irritating to write that way for a full article as I imagine it would be to read. Without further ado, let's break down some targets, shall we?
The Buccaneers Passing Attempts
Last season the Bucs attempted 578 passes, which was good for 16th best last season. In the past seven seasons, they haven't had three receivers break 100 targets together once. In fact, the only receiver who has consistently seen more than 100 in the past three seasons is Mike Evans. Now there is a man who is worth two gold doubloons!
In fact, last season Mike Evans saw 173 targets of the 578. The 30% share can reasonably be explained by the lack of Vincent Jackson playing all sixteen games, but Mike Evans is clearly one of the greatest Buccaneers since Captain Jack Morgan! The Buccaneers were also 7th most in the league in rushing attempts, despite the fact that Doug "Muscle Hamster" Martin only played eight games.
Here's a breakdown of what the receiving totals looked like:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Mike Evans
|
173
|
96
|
1321
|
12
|
Adam Humphries
|
83
|
55
|
622
|
2
|
Cameron Brate
|
81
|
57
|
660
|
8
|
Russell Shepard
|
40
|
23
|
341
|
2
|
Charles Sims
|
32
|
24
|
190
|
1
|
Vincent Jackson
|
32
|
15
|
173
|
0
|
Cecil Shorts
|
27
|
11
|
152
|
0
|
2017 Predictions
Before getting into the passing attempts for the season, let's touch on the major additions to the crew. The team added O.J. Howard in the first round, Chris Godwin in the third round, and Jeremy McNichols in the fifth round of the 2017 draft. They also added DeSean Jackson via free agency. All of these guys can be considered additions to the passing game, even the running back McNichols. Because of that, I think we can say that Winston will let his cannon of an arm loose a little more this season.
Working with around 600 passes for the team, how many should Mike Evans see? Fun fact: he hasn't seen less than 122 targets in a season in his entire career. Evans will see a dip from last year's 173, but nothing too crazy. Expect to see him get 165 targets.
Before we get into detail on Chris Godwin or DeSean Jackson, a quick note about Vincent Jackson - prior to the past two seasons he had never seen less than 140 targets with the Bucs. Some of that can be attributed to the emergence of Mike Evans, but not playing 16 games took a pretty big toll on him. Someone is going to be the person to inherit that large target share for the WR2.
DeSean Jackson is the most likely to become the Quartermaster (wide receiver 2). I know you are drooling over what DeSean Jackson can do with Winston throwing him the deep ball. Plus it seems pretty fitting that Djax would be the direct replacement to Vjax right? DeSean Jackson will see 105 targets this season.
Both O.J Howard and Cameron Brate are built like cannon balls making it incredibly difficult to project which one of them will win the starting job. I know there are some of you who are expecting a Howard break out in year one, but here's a question for you: how many times in the past ten years has a rookie tight end seen at least 80 targets? If you answered twice, you won a skeleton key congratulations! I expect them to see 120 targets combined, with 80 of them going to Brate.
Meanwhile, Adam Humphries is the man with the black spot on the team. He will continue to man the slot for now, but his time is coming. I expect about 50 targets to go his way.
Charles Sims used to be the golden boy of the crew, but he tore his meniscus last year. That's not an easy injury to bounce back from for a guy who relies heavily on his legs. Jeremy McNichols is also recovering from a shoulder injury, but given his youth, this will prove to be an interesting camp battle. We also can't forget about Jacquizz "Jolly" Rodgers either. I ultimately expect Sims to keep his job, but given the suspension of Martin, he may be pressed into starting duty. The running backs as a group will see 110 targets, and 55 will go to Sims.
The other 50 targets will go to Chris Godwin, and then their other end of roster guys. I think Chris Godwin has great talent, but it's going to take an injury to either DeSean or Evans to make him worthwhile this year. One day though defenders on the other team will be hearing, "You will always remember the day you almost caught Captain Chris Godwin!"
Below is the table of projections:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Mike Evans
|
165
|
91
|
1274
|
10
|
DeSean Jackson
|
105
|
61
|
1098
|
8
|
Cameron Brate
|
80
|
56
|
672
|
6
|
Charles Sims
|
55
|
40
|
320
|
2
|
Adam Humphries
|
50
|
33
|
333
|
2
|
O.J Howard
|
40
|
28
|
364
|
4
|
Dynasty Slant
As of DLF's July ADP, Mike Evans is the no 2 player off the board. He has rightfully earned that, and you'll have to give up your most valuable gems if you even want to try to acquire him. If I'm his owner, I'm not selling for anything less than a proven asset + two early firsts.
DeSean Jackson, on the other hand, is going after the likes of Kevin White, Zach Ertz, Breshad Perriman, and Kyle Rudolph. I understand he's 30, but given his situation, this seems like an ideal time to buy as a contender. If you're not a contending team, I'd wait until he built some value in season and then talk a contender into paying you the equivalent of a treasure island.
Cameron Brate is going so criminally low, we might need to hang drafters in the gallows. I love some of the guys ahead of him as sleepers, but at the 170th overall that's a great value. Don't forget, this guy is only 26 himself. If the Bucs decide somehow to get rid of him, you better believe a TE needy team would pick him up (looking at you Ravens).
Somehow Charles Sims is going after J.J. Nelson, Dwayne Allen, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Speaking of Jenkins, was there a better name for a guy on the Buccaneers than something that sounded like "Sea Faring"? My digressions aside, Sims is certainly someone to take a flier on if you need the running back depth.
O.J Howard is currently the 83rd player off the board. I'd probably wait until he somewhat "disappoints" this year, and then buy next season when people forget that tight ends break out late. Let's not forget that Cameron Brate is a restricted free agent next season, and there's close to zero reasons the Bucs will bring him back. I know I already said it, but it really seems like the Bucs should just trade Brate to the Ravens already and be done with it.
There you have it. Don't be the member of your league who gets stuck in molasses. Don't be the one to get to cabin fever, and lose what sense you had. There's gold in these parts if you know where to look.
Until next time,
Rek
@RekedFantasy
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com , dynastyleaguefootball.com, and www.spotrac.com
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