What sort of bear is best? False. Black Bear. Dwight Schrute may have a definite answer for which bear is best, but for receiving purposes this year it's hard to figure out.
Jordan Howard is the obvious answer in the running game after rushing for 1313 yards as a rookie last season. It's not so obvious for the passing attack. Their former top receiver Alshon Jeffrey just left in free agency. Add in the fact that the days of Smokin' Jay Cutler are gone, and you have a lot of questions in the Windy City.
As I often heard in my history classes in school, we need to go back before we can go forward. Mike Glennon and Mitchell Trubisky may be totally different quarterbacks than Cutler, but it's important we take a look at what the Bears' offense did last year. It'll give us a sense of what to expect for the coming season.
The Bears Passing Attempts
Would it shock you to learn that in the two seasons since John Fox took over, not a single Bears' receiver has broken the 100 targets threshold? That's definitely a change from the last season under Marc Trestman, where they had 4 different receivers break that mark. So what gives?
It probably has a lot to do with Jay Cutler. Stephen King should probably give him a lesson on what it means to be a gunslinger. Whereas King's Gunslingers are bad-asses, the most notable thing Cutler did in 2016 was showing his bare ass.
You know it was an odd year when both Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer attempted more passes than Jay Cutler. Bears fans are likely happy to be done with the Cutler era, but before I let them off the hook we need to take a look at the passes from last season. Between Cutler, Hoyer, Barkley, David Fales, and Cameron Meredith the team attempted 559 passes last season. That was good for 22nd most attempts in the league.
One quick thing before we get into the pass breakdown-I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Cameron Meredith was a perfect 1 for 1 passing. Look at this BOMB he threw to Matt Barkley against the Vikings! Maybe he can give Glennon and Trubisky a run for their money!
Now with that out of the way here is the breakdown of passing attempts:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardage
|
TD
|
Cameron Meredith
|
97
|
66
|
888
|
4
|
Alshon Jefferey
|
94
|
52
|
821
|
2
|
Zach Miller
|
64
|
47
|
486
|
4
|
Jordan Howard
|
50
|
29
|
298
|
1
|
Eddie Royal
|
43
|
33
|
369
|
2
|
Josh Bellamy
|
38
|
19
|
282
|
1
|
Kevin White
|
36
|
19
|
187
|
0
|
Deonte Thompson
|
36
|
22
|
249
|
2
|
Jeremy Langford
|
27
|
19
|
142
|
0
|
Daniel Brown
|
20
|
16
|
124
|
1
|
This definitely looks like an offense that went 3-13. Not a single receiver broke 1000 yards last season, and the target share was all over the place. What's that mean for the 2017 season?
2017 Predictions
Those of you pulling for Trubisky to start this season, you may want to stop reading now. I expect Glennon to start the majority of this season, if not all of it. The team showed some serious discord between signing Glennon and then moving up to draft Trubisky, but not everyone can be smarter than your average bear.
You might think this will be a team that will rely heavily on the rush after what Jordan Howard did last year. I don't doubt it either, but did you know that the team finished only 25th in rush attempts last season? It's hard to run the ball when you're constantly losing.
This team needs to pass more to win games, and I believe they will pass about 35 times per game.To play it conservatively we'll see Da Bears attempt 560 passes this season. Ask Smokin' Jay if it matters which of Glennon or Trubisky will be throwing the ball in terms of passing volume.
One of the biggest questions of the off-season for the Bears has been: who is the biggest beneficiary of Alshon's departure? Is it Cameron "I'm very very sneaky sir" Meredith or is it Breshard Perri..err I mean Kevin White. I'm going to give the edge to Meredith being the top guy. White has the draft pedigree on his side and is significantly faster than Meredith. However, Meredith has proven that he can be the guy after working his way up from being undrafted (he was a QB throughout high school and only transitioned to WR as a redshirt sophomore). There's something to be said for that grit, and he will see 120 targets.
Kevin White isn't far behind. He will easily claim the WR2 role, and may actually benefit from Meredith becoming the focus of defenders. As long as he eats an apple a day, he should see 110 targets.
Here is where it gets interesting. Is the third most targeted receiver the Bears tight end or one of their host of guys who can play the slot? Here's where I want to bring up the stat line of a particular player:
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardages
|
TD
|
42
|
29
|
416
|
3
|
The above was the stat line that Kendall Wright put up last season. Yes, he of former first round draft pedigree and 1000 yard season with the Titans. That's pretty impressive on limited catches, and I believe he will end up playing the slot for the Bears over Markus Wheaton or former Giants Rueben Randle and Victor Cruz.
I just can't seem to quit Wright no matter how hard I try. A league mate of mine and I have traded him back and forth I believe at least six times. I believe he will see 75 targets this season, with the opportunity for more if one of White or Meredith falters.
Everyone knows that tight ends come along slowly, but man it's a good thing the Bears drafted Adam Shaheen. Zach Miller is going to be 33 this season, and he's never been great. He's never been terrible either (editors note from LopsidedTrades: Well his time with the Jags was pretty uneventful), but it was definitely time for the Bears to bring in new blood for the position. I still expect Miller to see about 70 targets, but don't be surprised if the new cub on the block takes over by the end of the season.
Jordan Howard wanted so badly to be a bigger part of the passing attack that he got eye surgery this off-season. Let me tell you, I had eye surgery as a kid and the recovery wasn't pretty. I hear things are easier these days but seems like he deserves a shot. The only problem is the Bears also signed Benny Cunningham and drafted Tarik Cohen. Regardless, I expect Howard to see 50 targets and the running backs as a group to see about 85.
The other 100 targets will be divided up between Markus Wheaton, Victor Cruz, Josh Bellamy, Dion Sims, Adam Shaheen, and other end of the roster guys. It's anyone's guess as to how. Besides potentially Markus Wheaton, I don't see any of them making a real impact on fantasy rosters.
Here are the projections based on the target volume:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardage
|
TD
|
Cameron Meredith
|
120
|
82
|
1066
|
6
|
Kevin White
|
110
|
66
|
820
|
5
|
Kendall Wright
|
75
|
49
|
588
|
3
|
Zach Miller
|
70
|
51
|
535
|
3
|
Jordan Howard
|
50
|
34
|
306
|
2
|
Dynasty Slant
Cameron Meredith is the 38th receiver off the board according to DLF's most recent ADP data. If my projections are right, he would be about WR20 in half ppr leagues. I'd still sell him personally though, since I do believe there is a chance Kevin White overtakes him.
Speaking of White, he is going after Tyrell Williams and right before Desean Jackson. He's the 50th wide receiver off the board at the moment, which feels incredibly cheap for someone with his potential. I'd look to acquire him before the rest of your league realizes the opportunity in front of him.
Not that the numbers I posted for him are overly impressive, but considering that Kendall Wright is currently the 104th wide receiver off the board you could do a lot worse than him. I'd be willing to take a flier on him as my end of the roster guy to see if he could recapture his 2013 magic. Interestingly, despite some awful QB play in the pre-Mariota era, Wright has never had a catch % below 60 and sits at 63.9% for his career. That kind of reliability could really go a long way with the inexperience at QB for the Bears.
Not going to touch on Miller because I really don't think he's worth it. Howard is absolutely worth it, but he's being priced like a top back-and he should be. I doubt too many Howard owners are selling.
Which Bear is best? At his price, I think Kevin White. Just as in real life though, I don't blame anyone for running away from the Bears. They may just maul your fantasy team to death or at the very least steal your picnic basket.
Until next time,
Rek
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