Breaking Down The Targets: Houston Texans

Remember last year when the Texans were transported to the magical land of Oz? They were supposed to be led by the all knowing and powerful quarterback, Brock Osweiler. However, once they got a look behind the curtain they saw he was just a guy.

It's a weird year when Texans' fans found themselves clamoring for Brian Hoyer, but that's exactly what happened. Hoyer the Destroyer was an upgrade over Brock, which means the huge contract the Texans handed to Osweiler clearly didn't work out. At the end of the season, they were left clicking their ruby red shoes together wishing for a new quarterback. 

They got their wish in Clemson's Deshaun Watson, who is an upgrade simply because he's not Osweiler. Watson was a proven winner in college and should provide the Texans with a brighter future. Before they get there, let's examine what happened last season in more detail. Sorry Texan fans, you may want to look away for a bit.

Houston Texans Passing Attempts

Last season with both Osweiler and Savage, the Texans attempted 583 passes. That put them right around the middle of the pack at 14th overall. On the flip side, they were number 6 on the rushing list. I believe it was the rushing attempts combined with a great defense that allowed them to be a winning team.

The 583 pass attempts were the second highest of the past six seasons, which is odd when you consider how badly Osweiler played. It's possible the interceptions were him trying to show off his magic, and instead it just led to his high amount of picks. Maybe he learned a thing or two from James Franco about playing a con man, because he certainly tricked the Texans into thinking he was good.

Here are how the targets broke down between both Osweiler and Savage:

Deandre Hopkins 

 151-78-954-4

Will Fuller

92-47-635-2

C.J. Fiedorowicz 

89-54-559-4

Ryan Griffin

74-50-442-2

Lamar Miller 

39-31-188-1

Braxton Miller 

28-15-99-1

Jaelen Strong 

 24-14-131-0


The rest went to the likes of Jonathan Grimes, Alfred Blue, Stephen Anderson, Keith Mumphery,  Wendall Williams, Tyler Ervin, and Akeem Hunt. None of them saw enough target volume to do anything that is worth much of a mention. Now that we've looked at 2016, let's see if 2017 will be any better.

2017 Predictions

Tom Savage did an alright job when he had to fill in for Osweiler, but the fact that the Texans took Watson at 12th overall after trading up says everything. It's elementary, my dear reader, that we will see Watson starting games sooner rather than later. I expect to see Savage start for about 4 games, and Watson starts for the other 12. 

Savage should attempt a total of about 130 passes. Watson is a little harder to predict, but we do have some rookie data to work with. The most passes ever attempted by a rookie were 627 by Andrew Luck, in the 2012 season. The next highest amounts were: Carson Wentz (607), Derek Carr (599),  and Sam Bradford (590). There's only one problem. All of those were in 16 games played.

So which rookies attempted the most passes while starting only 12 games their rookie season? Drew Bledsoe and Joey Harrington come on down! Bledsoe attempted 429 passes in the 1993 season and Harrington attempted 429 in the 2002 season. That seems a little high for Watson though. Last season, the rookie quarterbacks averaged about 30 attempts per game. If we say that Watson attempts about 30 passes per game, that brings us to 360 attempts.

In all, we should have 490 attempts to work with for this upcoming season. It's a little lower than last season, but that also seems to fit the bill with a rookie taking over. It also means the Texans will rely on J.J Watt and their defense to win games as they should.

What does that mean for Deandre "Nuk" Hopkins? Well, over the last four seasons he's averaging 140 targets per 16 games. I have no reason to expect Hopkins to see anything less than that. I imagine Deshaun Watson will quickly identify the top "explosive" target on the team. Expect Hopkins to see 140 again.

Anyone else think that "Fuller House" would be a much more interesting show if it was all about Will Fuller taking the ball to the house this season? No? Just me? Darn. Well, anyway, I expect Fuller to see an uptick in targets this season despite the Texans throwing less. 105 looks will go to him to hopefully take to the house.

Did you know that the Texans targeted their tight ends a ridiculous 179 times last season? I guess that's what happens when you need a safety blanket to hide under when you're afraid of throwing interceptions. It's a fact that rookie quarterbacks like their safety blankets, it makes them feel safe as they learn how to walk the walk.  Due to the lack of volume, I do expect Fiedorowicz to dip to about 80 targets.

I'm really unsure who I think will play the slot for the Texans between Braxton Miller and Jaelen Strong. I'm going to award the job to Miller, if only because his job fits the team's alcohol motif. You have Deandre "hops"kins, Lamar "Miller High Life", and Will "Fuller Beer". Miller-Lite will be on the menu 45 times this season.

Speaking of Lamar Miller, did you know that of running backs with at least 30 targets last season he was the only one not to drop a single pass? That seems like a guy you may want to get more involved in the passing game. With the addition of D'onta Foreman allowing Miller more rest, I believe the Texans might look to use him more on third downs. Miller will see 45 targets, though we can't forget that Tyler Ervin is also in the mix for some receiving work.

That leaves 75 targets up for grabs. Those will likely go to the likes of Strong, Ervin, Alfred Blue, and Ryan Griffin. It does also leave some room for one of the guys I mentioned to increase their looks.

Now what you all came for-the projections!

Projections

DeAndre Hopkins

140-81-1215-7

Will Fuller

105-61-823-5

C.J Fiedorowicz

80-52-588-5

Braxton Miller

45-26-200-2

Lamar Miller

45-36-270-2

Dynasty Values

Not quite the return to 2015 levels for Deandre Hopkins, but would still make him a top 15 wide receiver in most formats. I'd have a hard time justifying him as the 8th wide receiver off the board as DLF June ADP has him with those numbers, but even with a more conservative pass attack this year Hopkins is still a very good player. A lot of owners are scared after last year, and it might be the right time to buy. Just make sure you keep an eye on whether the Texans extend him or not.

Will Fuller is currently going as about the 51st wide receiver off the board. Considering he's only going to be 23 going into the current season, I'd keep a close eye on him. I am betting Hopkins gets extended, but that's likely good for Fuller. It means he will have to face the opponent's second best corner and can be the 1B to Hopkins clear 1A.

C.J Fiedorowicz may be one of the biggest values here. He is currently going after rookies Gerald Everett and Adam Shaheen. Based on the target volume he saw last year, I'd pounce on the opportunity to acquire him cheap. He's a former third-round pick with little in the way of competition for his target share.

After research for this article, I regret not acquiring Lamar Miller when I had the chance. I believe he is in for a big season. He does have Foreman as competition behind him, but if you are a contender now would be the time to acquire him.

This may not be the year that the Texans have a breakout offensively. I expect them to play somewhat conservatively since they can win with their defense and have two talented RBs. This season will be a building block for the Texans and Watson. Once the kid gloves come off in 2018, prepare to fire up the grill and enjoy a cold one.

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*All stats courtesy of pro-football-reference.com and www.profootballfocus.com