Back in 2012, I won my first fantasy championship with Andrew Luck at the helm. To say I have a man crush is putting it lightly. In order, it may go Harrison Ford, and then Andrew Luck. You'd think it'd be my own team's quarterback but I mean...just look at Eli Manning.
I'm not going to lie to any of you reading this. There isn't all that much exciting about the Colts offense for this upcoming season. It's not that they won't have great offensive pieces, it's just it's not going to look that different from last year. So why am I even bothering? Probably because "boring" is my middle name.
2016 Colts Passing Attempts
Last season saw the Colts lowest amount of pass attempts since 2013 with 584 passes attempted. The Colts ranked 13th in the league in pass attempts, which isn't that bad but they are usually at least in the top ten. You might say it's because Luck missed a game, and Tolzien is definitely no Luck. However, in the 2015 season the Colts threw more than they did last season and Luck only accounted for half of all the pass attempts.
Meanwhile, the team was 16th in rushing attempts with 404, led by fantasy Frankenstein Frank Gore. Every season you think it might be Frank Gore's last he borrows from Dikembe Mutumbo and wags his finger "no no no no". Trying to figure out which season may actually be his last is a fool's errand, but now that I said that this will clearly be it right?
To give you a sense of what the breakdown looked like last season check out the table below:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Yardage
|
TD
|
T.Y Hilton
|
155
|
91
|
1448
|
6
|
Jack Doyle
|
75
|
59
|
584
|
5
|
Phillip Dorsett
|
59
|
33
|
528
|
2
|
Donte Moncrief
|
56
|
30
|
307
|
7
|
Frank Gore
|
47
|
38
|
277
|
4
|
Robert Turbin
|
35
|
26
|
179
|
1
|
Chester Rodgers
|
34
|
19
|
273
|
0
|
Josh Ferguson
|
26
|
20
|
136
|
0
|
Yikes. This offense clearly had a hard time finding anyone not named T.Y. to throw to. To be fair no wide receiver outside of T.Y. actually played all sixteen games. The Colts must have had a curse placed on them last year because they certainly had trouble staying healthy.
2017 Predictions
Even though it brings a single tear to my eye I have to admit there's reason to believe Andrew Luck may throw less this year. He is coming off a shoulder injury, and at this point, he's going to miss training camp. I believe in his abilities when he does return to the field, and hopefully, his O-line improves enough to prevent him getting rammed by the trucks that represent the other teams' front sevens. There is reason to be optimistic here as the Colts offensive line is very young while at the same time returning all five starters from last year. Le'Raven Clark who was taken in the 3rd round last year is expected to push for a starting spot.
Having said that, I actually don't think the team will attempt fewer passes though. While Gore is still a capable running back, this team is one that wants to air it out. If Moncrief and the other receiving options (including newly added Kamar Aiken) can stay healthy, I'd actually expect the pass attempts to go up. I don't think Luck will throw 600 times this season, but a slight uptick to at least 590 seems about right.
Once again T.Y Hilton will be the top dog. Maybe I was just conditioned from a young age to love things with T.Y. in it because of beanie babies, but he always finds a way onto my fantasy teams. T.Y. hasn't seen less than 130 targets in the past four seasons, and I don't expect that to change at all. Hilton will see 150 targets this coming season, and if you draft him you'll be saying "T.Y" very much.
Next up is Donte Moncrief. I've had a lot of debates about Moncrief. I personally used to think he was overrated/overhyped. A league mate of mine argued that he isn't because of his touchdown scoring abilities and because we haven't seen him as a 16 game starter. However, his yards per rec have decreased every year since his rookie season. That's not exactly a trend you like to see when considering a "breakout" player.
Despite that, I think Moncrief doesn't have much in the way of competition. Phillip Dorsett has been nothing but a disappointment, and Kamar Aiken is more suited to a slot role. I expect Moncrief to see 120 targets, and he will play with a chip on his shoulder now that I've called him out!
Jack Doyle is the new king of the hill tight end in town after showing so well last season that the Colts shipped Dwayne Allen to the Patriots. A friend of mine calls him "The Answer" at tight end, and he may not be wrong. Before getting too excited about the "The Answer", just remember that the Colts haven't targeted three receivers over 100 times in a season at least since 2010.
That doesn't mean the Colts don't like to target their tight ends. In 2015, Colby Fleener saw 84 looks. The year before he saw 92 with Dwayne Allen seeing 50! I think Doyle did enough to warrant a slight bump from his 75 last year up to 85 this year.
Here's where things get a bit more interesting. Look at this stat line from 2015:
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Yardage
|
TD
|
127
|
75
|
944
|
5
|
What if I told you that guy has a chance to be the Colts WR3? You'd probably assume it was their former first round pick Phillip Dorsett right? Wrong! That line belongs to the un-drafted Kamar Aiken who was the defacto WR1 for the Ravens that year.
Aiken hasn't done much otherwise, but I still think he will win out over Dorsett. Dorsett has been given every chance to be the WR2 on this team and has been more disappointing than buying a doughnut only to find out it was stale. I know he has the better workout metrics than Aiken - and you can't teach Dorsett's elite speed - but it's Aiken who I expect to see about 65 targets.
Fun fact about "Frankenstein" Gore-since coming to Indy he hasn't seen less than 47 targets in the passing game. I know Robert Turbin is considered a better passing down back than Gore, but I still expect Gore to see about 50 targets this season. Robert "Turbo" Turbin will probably see around 30. Marlon Mack may get involved too, but he isn't exactly known for his catching ability.
The other 90 or so targets will be divided between Dorsett, Chester Rodgers, Erik Swoope, and other end of the roster guys. I'd expect Dorsett to see the biggest workload there, but nothing significant. It's also possible one of the guys I mentioned earlier will see an increase in their workload.
Here are the projections:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Yardage
|
TD
|
T.Y. Hilton
|
150
|
86
|
1376
|
8
|
Donte Moncrief
|
120
|
70
|
840
|
7
|
Jack Doyle
|
88
|
62
|
640
|
7
|
Kamar Aiken
|
65
|
38
|
437
|
2
|
Frank Gore
|
50
|
30
|
225
|
1
|
Dynasty Slant
After last season, the dynasty community has finally bought into T.Y Hilton. He was underrated for so long, but now according to DLF July ADP he is the 11th player off the board. That's a little aggressive for my taste. I love that he is tied to Luck for years and his consistency but I have a few receivers ahead of him.
The dynasty community loves Donte Moncrief and that is proven by the fact that he is going 48th off the board and that is with him losing value in 2017. This will only be his age 24 season, and he is a touchdown scoring machine. That said, I can't get aboard with taking him ahead of guys like Golden Tate, Willie Snead, or Kelvin Benjamin who he is currently ahead of in ADP.
Jack Doyle may be the most interesting one here. You may have noticed that the catch rate I gave him is much lower than last season. Doyle had the second highest catch rate for a non-RB since 200 last season so some regression can be expected. My projections would have him as a top ten TE in half PPR formats, and yet he is going after the likes of Austin Hooper, Duke Johnson, and Adrian Peterson. I probably should have paid more attention to my league mate when he called Doyle "The Answer".
Aiken is currently the 216th player off the board, which means he is a great value. If Moncrief falters at all, he might even have a chance to step into the role opposite Hilton. I don't really see that happening, but at that price, he's worth stashing on your roster to find out. There is a chance that Phillip Dorsett ends up a year three breakout, but I rather roll the dice on Aiken at this point.
Finally, we get to Frank Gore. I know he's old, but he is going after Gerald Everett according to the most recent ADP data. This is the perfect time to buy Gore if you're a contender. Just make sure you have a back-up plan for next year because I'm going to be bold and say THIS IS IT. Now that I said that, Gore will go on to play 10 more seasons just to spite me.
There are some solid pieces for fantasy purposes in this offense, outside of punny fantasy teams name like "We're up all night to get Lucky", "Suit and T.Y", "Doyle Rules", "Donte's Inferno","My Aiken Breakin Heart", and "Blood and Frank Gore". Much like the real team, you do need to keep in mind that your season could depend on Andrew Luck's shoulder. Luck could miss a few games which would drastically alter these projections. So I guess the real question you have to ask yourself is: are you feeling lucky?
Until next time,
Rek
@RekedFantasy
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com ,and dynastyleaguefootball.com
No comments:
Post a Comment