Two Weeks In: Is It A Trend or Is It Small Sample Size?

 Early in the season, it can’t be tough to settle on whether a player’s improvement or decline is for real. Making aggressive moves on these possibilities is risky but can lead to big rewards. Here are some examples of players through two weeks last year, both legitimate and fraudulent.

Lamar Jackson - QB1 - Legit!

Case Keenum - QB6 - Fraud

Austin Ekeler - RB1 - Legit!

Le’Veon Bell with Jets - RB5 - Fraud

John Ross - WR1 - Major fraud
D.J. Chark - WR5 - Legit!

So yeah, you get the point. Let’s take a look at some early surprises and try to find some legitimate early successes.

Keelan Cole Sr.: Relevant WR2 In Jacksonville?

Keelan Cole Sr. has been teetering between fantasy irrelevance and being worthy of a roster spot for the last three years. Last year Cole struggled for playing time but did end up the most efficient receiver on the team with a robust 10.3 yards per target. Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley both received 90+ targets last year as the primary receivers behind D.J. Chark Jr.

Cole started to play more in the second half of 2019 and made his mark over the final three weeks. He totaled 7-166-1 over those three games. In Week 1 he played 66% of snaps while Conley barely played and Dede Westbrook was inactive. That trend continued in Week 2. Cole has been very productive so far, catching 11 of 12 targets with a touchdown in each game.

Of course, there is the exciting rookie looming behind. However, as mentioned above, the Jaguars had three WRs with 90+ targets last year. Laviska Shenault also gets some action in the run game. I think Cole can be had really cheap because people won’t believe this offense can sustain three receivers. They may be right, but for very cheap, you should look into acquiring Keelan Cole Sr.

Chase Claypool: Most Pro-Ready WR?

Last week Chase Claypool made headlines with a jaw-dropping highlight catch. He put up 47 yards on just 19 snaps in a respectable debut. In Week 2, Claypool made the highlight reel again with an 84-yard touchdown, the longest play of the young season. I wrote about Claypool this offseason. My conclusion was this: He is an athletic freak and there just aren’t players at his size with his athleticism. It is basically D.K. Metcalf and Claypool.

Claypool has caught all five of his targets this season. He is quickly moving ahead of James Washington. Diontae and JuJu aren’t going anywhere. On the other hand, the Steelers haven’t been in a game where they fell behind and need to air it out. That could change the next few games. Claypool is currently PFF’s highest-graded WR. Not just out of rookies, overall! It surely won’t be this smooth sailing all the way, but it looks legitimate. If Claypool keeps it up, his snaps are going to increase regardless of who else the Steelers have. He is a mismatch that brings something different.

Josh Allen Has Taken His Game To The Next Level

Well, that is a headline I didn’t think I’d be writing. Josh Allen took a big step forward last year, drastically cutting down on his interceptions. Still, as a passer, it wasn’t enough. Only Dwayne Haskins had a worse completion percentage. The Bills went out and got Stefon Diggs. Allen’s own progression plus the addition of a true star receiver has been huge.

Allen had two fumbles in Week One but looked great in the air. This week he had no turnovers and looked tremendous. His 312 Week 1 passing yards was already his career-high by a comfortable amount. In Week 2 he upped that over 100 yards to 417. Four passing touchdowns were also a new career-best.

Now there is a necessary caveat. The Jets are pretty clearly the worst team in the league. The Dolphins sure are not good. The Bills schedule is a LOT tougher from here on out. That starts with Jalen Ramsey and the Rams next week. Josh Allen has already made it clear he has once again taken a step forward. But he has a lot to prove against likely playoff teams in the weeks ahead.

Five Week One Performances I Believe In

 Gardner Minshew Is the Jags Franchise QB

Minshew had some big downs during his rookie season, but on the whole, it was a surprisingly strong season for the 6th rounder. *As a passer*, he outplayed Kyler Murray. In 2020, the Jaguars are (were?) expected to be one of the worst teams with a shot at Trevor Lawrence next year. Minshew decided otherwise. He had a tremendous Week 1 performance. In 15 games and 13 starts, Minshew has 24 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. Before Minshew, the last QB to have 20+ TDs and 6 or fewer interceptions over their first 15 games was Dak Prescott. Prescott was a similar late-round draft pick not expected to be the face of the franchise. I’m liking Minshew’s odds to follow that path.

Julio Jones Will Break the Record for Most Consecutive 1,300 yard seasons

Julio is currently tied with Torry Holt at six straight 1,300 yard seasons for most ever. After leading the league with 157 rec yards in Week 1, Julio is already on a great pace to become the first to ever do it in SEVEN STRAIGHT SEASONS. That means over the next 15 games, Julio needs to average a mere 76 yards per game to hit the 1,300-yard mark. I say he gets it done. Especially in the dynasty community, people are scared away from Julio because of his age. The 31-year-old remains arguably the best all-around WR in the league.

Austin Ekeler Is Still Really Good, but 2020 Might Suck

HOW DO YOU ONLY TARGET AUSTIN EKELER ONCE? In one of the worst pairings of QB and RB, Tyrod Taylor seemingly has no interest throwing to his RBs, even when that RB has been THE BEST receiving back by yards per target of ALL-TIME. It was baffling. Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen was the interim OC for half of last season and I don’t think there is any way he game-planned 0 targets to Ekeler. So I am putting this one firmly on Tyrod. The move to Herbert can’t come soon enough.

Cam Newton is BACK, Baby!

Over 16 games from 2018-2019, Cam Newton rushed for just 4 touchdowns with a high of 63 yards in a single game. This was the result of ankle injuries. He ended up missing almost all of 2019 and spent much of the 2020 offseason unsigned. The former MVP finally signed with New England in July and in Week 1 put up a vintage Cam performance with a 15-75-2 rushing line. If he can avoid injuries, Cam might be a league winner.

The Raiders Offense Might Be Really Good

Heading into the 2019 season the Raiders were a laughingstock in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. Many questioned whether the TV duo of Mayock/Gruden had a clue what they were doing. After 10 games they were a surprising 6-4 and in the playoff hunt. It, unfortunately, didn’t last but it was enough to sway my opinion. They were doing good work there. Derek Carr had his best season by ANY/A and QBR. Carr became just the fifth quarterback to finish a season with a completion percentage above 70%. He picked up where he left off in Week 1 completing 22/30 passes (73.3%) without a turnover. This opened up running lanes for Josh Jacobs. Jacobs had his first three-touchdown game and also his best game as a receiver (4-46-0). Henry Ruggs looked great in his debut, adding a new dynamic to the offense. I really wish Tyrell Williams didn’t get hurt because they are missing another reliable veteran, but I think this offense will surprise many in 2020. They aren’t going to put up 40 points but they are going to be very efficient with a low turnover rate.

Five Players and Situations I’ll Be Watching Closely in Week 1

It’s been a wild year but the NFL is still pushing on as best as they can, and that means the fantasy season is in full swing. Will we see a higher rate of rookie struggles? Will COVID outbreaks create unexpected breakout seasons from backups? It is going to be weird. Here are some players and situations that will likely have a big impact on fantasy success this year.

Tyler Higbee

Will the dominant streak to end 2019 keep up? Probably not, but will he remain a key piece of the offense? I really think so. Two things need to happen. Higbee needs to be clearly ahead of Gerald Everett and he needs to be ahead of the WR3. Last year these two things only happened thanks to injuries. But when given the opportunity, Higbee put on a show rarely seen from the TE position. Did he do enough for McVay to change his offense? I’ve been very high on Higbee this offseason. We’ll get answers Sunday night.

Devin Singletary vs Zack Moss

Singletary had a great rookie season splitting time with Frank Gore. He put up 969 yards on only 180 touches. Still, it wasn’t a surprise to see the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on Zack Moss. Will it be a true split or more of a 70/30 committee? Both players were discounted in drafts due to the uncertainty so if one player is clearly ahead it will represent a big value to fantasy teams.

The Buccaneers...everything on the offense

This entire offense is intriguing. The battle for WR1 has already seen the edge go to Chris Godwin with Mike Evans doubtful to play Week 1. At Tight End can Gronk return after a year off without missing a beat? Can he stay healthy? It is a pretty safe bet he will be the preferred goal line target as long as he stays on the field. I want to see if he can offer more. At running back, Ronald Jones had a respectful 2019 and cracked 1000 yards from scrimmage. That didn’t stop the Bucs from bringing in a LOT of competition. They drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third and the early thinking was these two would compete for the top role. Vaughn seemed to fall behind with the lack of a full offseason. Then the Bucs signed LeSean McCoy in August. He wasn’t productive in 2019 and couldn’t beat out a mediocre group in Kansas City but some seemed to think he would be the starter. THEN the Bucs signed Leonard Fournette after he got released. Fournette put up over 1,600 yards last year. I think he was a bit underappreciated by the fantasy community. On paper, he should easily slide into the lead role. But it might take a few weeks for him to get acquainted. This is a talented RB group and I don’t think any victory laps should be taken in just one week.

The cherry on top of this powerhouse sundae is of course Tom Brady. 43-year-old Brady is quite a bit removed from what he was even 3 years ago. Can this offense hide the blemishes? How bad could even the worst quarterback be with this offense? We’ll get our first hint of an answer in a matchup of legendary QBs in Brees vs Brady.

The Most Intriguing Rookie is….

The easy, obvious answer is Joe Burrow. I expect him to be good, but I won’t be surprised if he struggles in Week 1 either. Not much intrigue there for me. No, I’m going to give it to Jonathan Taylor. Colts HC Frank Reich has called it a one-one situation (instead of 1-2 or A-B). Marlon Mack will start as the incumbent and has reportedly been a great mentor to Jonathan Taylor. That is nice and all but in terms of talent...Mack is a fine player but Jonathan Taylor can be a game-changer at the position. They will ride the hot hand. I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor starts to chip away at the split percentage within his first few touches. At the very least, I am looking for some signs of explosiveness from Taylor.

Do the Titans Have a Few Superstars in the Making or Was it a Mirage?

The Ryan Tannehill reclamation project was a special thing to watch last year. It took them all the way to the AFC Championship Game where they were no match for the eventual champions. Tannehill threw for an incredible 27 TD and 6 INT in 13 total starts including playoffs. However, he was also sacked a LOT. That is concerning for a quarterback that missed the end of 2017 and all of 2018 with knee injuries. His touchdown percentage is also due to regress.

Despite that, you can’t simply write off 2019 as a fluke. Tannehill had tremendous success throwing deep and he led the league in yards per completion while having a low interception rate. The biggest key to that was the emergence of rookie receiver A.J. Brown. Minimum 75 targets, Browns 12.8 yards per target was the best ever for a rookie and the third-best since 1992 which is as far back as the data goes. That is incredible. The list of rookie receivers to have 10+ yards per target is extremely strong. He is certainly due for regression but also a big uptick in volume.

The week 1 matchup will be a big challenge. Playing in Denver is never the easiest and they have a stout secondary. The Broncos added A.J. Bouye and have two of the top PFF graded safeties from last year. I want to see Tannehill flash more of that MVP potential he showcased last year.

Football is back! Quick thoughts on the first game of the season

Chiefs

Mahomes: Clearly the different offseason had no effect here. Mahomes looked like the MVP and reigning champion that he is. The only thing worth noting is that the yards per attempt and completion were lower than normal. That involved a long touchdown drop by DeMarcus Robinson though. No worries there.

Running Backs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire was great, but not entirely in the way I expected. 25-138-1 rushing line with zero receptions on two targets. I certainly would have expected 5+ targets. Darrel Williams was the #2 back and put up 30 yards on 9 touches. Surprisingly he got a good bit of the third down work. While CEH was great today, that could be concerning long-term. Both of CEH’s targets came in the second half where he saw more snaps compared to Williams. Darwin Thompson received 0 snaps and is the clear #3. Don’t expect a breakout for him.

Wide Receivers: Sammy Watkins surprisingly led the way with 9 targets for a 7-82-1 line, clearly outshining Tyreek Hill. Watkins has now strung together four straight games of 76 or more yards dating back to last year’s playoffs. Prior to that he didn’t eclipse 80 receiving yards after Week 1 of last year when he had a monster 9-198-3 against Jacksonville.Overall I am not at all concerned about Tyreek, who still had a touchdown. I’m kind of buying into Watkins as a legitimate player right now.

Disappointingly, Demarcus Robinson was still the WR3 and played poorly to boot. What’s it gonna take to get Mecole Hardman in there!? As the WR4, Hardman caught his lone target for 6 yards. The pass was from behind the line of scrimmage so he wasn’t even thrown to deep. Robinson had two touchdown drops. If that keeps up we will see a shift in these two players.

Tight Ends: It was the Travis Kelce show of course. He had a very reassuring game with two targets from inside the 10 yard line, leading to one touchdown. He had just five touchdowns last year but he should comfortably exceed that and return to a level where he had 18 touchdowns over 2017-18.

Texans

Deshaun Watson: He ended up okay in fantasy points but that is about all that can be said. He racked those points up in garbage time. Watson was sacked 4 times and that is troubling for a QB that has a higher sack% than anyone else min 1000 attempts since 2017. He also had a bad interception where he was hit as he threw. The Texans were down 31-7 before Watson started moving the ball down the field and recorded his only pass touchdown of the night. The Texans have a tough schedule with Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Minnesota up next. It could be a slow start for Watson.

Running Backs: Somewhat of a surprise, David Johnson was the guy and looked great on the ground despite his team’s offensive struggles. In total, David Johnson put up 109 yards on 14 touches and looked really good. His gain was Duke Johnson’s loss. Duke had just 14 yards on 5 carries and 1 target. Of course, David Johnson hasn’t been the picture of health the last few years so Duke may still get his opportunity. But for now, Duke is droppable even in deeper redraft leagues and certainly relegated to the bench everywhere.

Wide Receivers: Will Fuller WR1? Watson to Fuller has always been an incredibly successful combination. The problem is there haven't been a whole lot of games where both were active and healthy (mostly Fuller’s fault). Fuller's 8 receptions for 112 yards led all players. For as long as he stays healthy, he needs to be in your lineups.

After Fuller, there wasn’t much success. Brandin Cooks debut was quiet with just 20 yards on 5 targets. Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb were near invisible which was surprising. The WR depth for the Texans should be a strength. Stills and Cobb aren’t world beaters but they are really good as your 3/4 options. DeAndre Carter saw some playing time in Q4 with the game out of hand.

Tight Ends: Jordan Akins and Darren Fells led a 2TE offense. They combined for 4 receptions for 58 yards. Akins scored the lone pass TD of the night for Houston. The 28 year old Akins had a 36-418-2 line last year. He is worth owning in deeper dynasty leagues for sure, but I’m not ready to call him a starting fantasy tight end.

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All stats were supplied by pro-football-reference.com