Breaking Down The Targets: Seattle Seahawks

Like many of you, I'm still trying to make sense of why the Seahawks didn't run the ball from 1st and goal to win the 2014 Super Bowl. All they had to do was follow Rainbow Road ( a different nickname for Marshawn Lynch based on his love of Skittles) to victory, and yet they took a wrong turn somewhere. It's even more surprising when you look at the numbers. Only three times in the past seven years has a receiver broken 100 targets on the Seahawks.  Not once in the Pete Carroll era of coaching has the team had multiple receivers get 100 looks.

This is a run first team and it makes that decision all the more confusing. The teams off-season moves has given no indications this is changing any time soon. Many of you may not be encouraged by the signing of Eddie Lacy, but it shows this team still wants to bowl over their opponents rather than get the job done through the air.

Seattle Seahawks Pass Attempts

It might surprise you to learn then that last season the Seahawks attempted 567 passes which was tied for 18th most in the league. The majority were attempted by Russel Wilson, but just like other teams the Seahawks too had one of their receivers attempt a sigle pass. Doug Baldwin threw a perfect touchdown pass to Russell Wilson. Can this be considered a trick play if so many teams pulled it off successfully last season? 

The target breakdown is as follows:

Doug Baldwin-125

Jimmy Graham-95

Jermaine Kearse-89

Tyler Lockett-66

Paul Richardson-36

After that the next largest is Christine Michael with 26, and at least 5 more guys saw at least 10 targets. The spread of targets can easily be attributed to the fact many of the team's passing options were injured at various points last season. However, while he's not quite Drew Brees, Wilson has spread the ball historically in his limited pass attempts.

What is somewhat surprising is the fact that the Seahawks actually finished lower in attempted rushing than attempted passes last year. They were only 20th in rushing attempts last season, as opposed to 3rd overall the year before, and 1st overall in 2014. Maybe if they had just given Marshawn what he wanted, they wouldn't have fallen off the rails so many times.

The blame can't be placed solely at the feet of that one play though. Anytime the running backs for Seattle seemed to get going last season, they slipped on a banana peel. They didn't have a single back that was active for all 16 games last season. Their highest was Alex Collins who was active for 11 games and he was only a backup.

Their rushing attack should be better this year because not only did they sign Lacy, but both Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise hopefully won't be as injured as last season. What does that mean for the passing attack in the upcoming season? 

2017 Predictions 

Well there are some encouraging signs for fantasy purposes. Russel Wilson has shown an upwards trend of passing attempts every season he's been in the league. His 546 last season was a career high. I'm not sure how much I expect that to increase, but this year I'll assign him 550 and the team 575 passes total.

I don't think I need to tell you how "underrated" Baldwin is. He's so underrated that it's all dynasty twitter seems to talk about these days. He's the green shell of fantasy players. Under utilized by new players but deadly in the hands of someone who knows what they are doing. As Wilson continues to throw more, Baldwin will continue to benefit. I believe he will see right around the 125 targets he saw last season.

This is probably where you expect me to talk about Jermaine Kearse. I know he is often utilized in the redzone but it's hard to get excited about a guy who rarely crossed the finish line and has only had better than a 60% catch rate once in his career. Kearse's 46.1% catch rate was 5th worst of anyone with 50 or more targets. The other guys all had far less accurate quarterbacks as well. He's the coin of the Seahawks offense, it has it's uses but there are much more exciting options.

Tyler Lockett is one such option. Easily on his way to star power after Matt Harmon wrote about him last year, we all thought 2016 would be his year. He too slipped on some banana peels, leading to multiple injuries and his star to fade. I still like him but not sure I see him getting more than 75 targets unless everything breaks right.

Paul Richardson feasibly could be the guy too. He brings that same golden mushroom 4.40 speed to the table that Lockett does. However, unlike Lockett, Richardson has been in the league three seasons and hasn't shown much. He did start to emerge down the stretch after Lockett's injury. He had 21 targets over the final 4 games (playoffs included) and had a respectable 15-213-2 line during that span. However, he's also had multiple injuries himself, including two torn ACLs. He has potential but I just don't see him getting more than 40 targets.

That brings us to Amara Darboh, the Seahawks 3rd round pick in this draft. Maybe it's just because he's the new toy like the boomerang introduced in Mario Kart 8, or maybe it's because he's 6'2 and over 200 pounds but I really like his chance to become a producer for this team. He's not quite as fast as the previous two guys I mentioned, but still has plenty of speed for his size. I'll say he sees 55 targets, with an opportunity for much more if Lockett stumbles out of the gate.

So what is old reliable Jimmy Graham going to do? Early in his Seahawks career, they were deploying him like the three red shells. They'd use him correctly one of out of three times. They seemed to get it together last season though. I'd expect him to see right about the 95 targets he saw last season, and the tight end group to see around 115 targets total.

I expect C.J. Prosise to easily lead the backfield in terms of targets. He reminds me of a bigger Giovani Bernard, and the Seahawks are rumored to want to get him more involved in the offense this coming season. I think he will see 60 targets and the running back group will see about 85 targets.

Conclusion

That leaves 80 targets of the 575 I predicted unaccounted for. Some of those will likely go to Jermaine Kearse, but I really feel this is the year that the Seahawks start to phase him out.That also leaves room for one of the potential WR2s I mentioned to grow if they prove they are worth it.

Now time for what you all really came for: the projections!

Doug Baldwin 

125-91-1140-7

Tyler Lockett 

75-48-658-4

Paul Richardson

40-26-300-1

Amara Darboh

55-33-400-2

Jimmy Graham

95-62-850-8

C.J Prosise

60-47-400-3

Clearly Lockett is currently my favorite to run with the WR2 job, but Darboh also has a shot. I'm not a big believer in Richardson and if he has another season where he produces like that I can't imagine he'll be on the team much longer. It is dangerous to believe in receivers that the Seahawks draft though. They keep doing it and yet none of them has overtaken Kearse.

Maybe we should all just accept the coin for what it is. It helps us go a little faster. But it's hard not to dream on the star or the boomerang instead. 

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*All stats pulled from pro-football-reference.com, and sports-reference.com

Breaking Down The Targets: Tennessee Titans

Do you remember the last time the Tennessee Titans had three receivers break 100 targets? HA! It was a trick question. There has never been a season that the Tennessee Titans had at least three receivers reach 100 targets. In fact, having two is pretty rare for them as well. It's only happened twice since 2007.

So what we have is a team that historically doesn't pass the ball as much as others. However, we also have a team that just added huge receiving weapons in Corey Davis and Eric Decker. Clearly it's going to change right? Let's see what we find.

The Titans Pass Attempts

Last season the Titans passed the ball 504 times, otherwise known as the 28th best in the league. We've spent the past few articles examining offenses that throw a ton so it seems only fair to go the opposite route. Of those 504 attempts, 451 were attempted by Marcus Mariota, 51 by Matt Cassel, and 2 by Demarco Murray. Murray also had a touchdown pass, but it was only a 10 yard strike to Delanie Walker. Not quite as impressive as Willie Snead or Marqise Lee!

As I mentioned earlier, the Titans did see two receivers break 100 targets for the first time in three seasons last year.  Rishard Matthews led the way with 108, followed by Delanie Walker with 102. The next highest amount was to Tajae "not the sharpest guy in the room" Sharpe, who had 83 targets go his way. Despite all the talk of how good Henry's hands have gotten this off-season, we shouldn't forget that Demarco Murray saw 67 targets on top of all his rushing attempts last season. Additionally, Kendall Wright, Henry Douglas, and Andre Johnson saw a combined 86 targets! 

It's not surprising to see the Titans have a low amount of pass attempts. Mike Mularkey before the season said he wanted to focus on an "exotic smashmouth" offense. Contrary to popular belief, that's not a tropical remix of popular smash mouth songs but rather means he wanted to focus on running the ball. Mularkey may as well be walking on the sun, because the strategy turned the Titans from a 3-13 team to a 9-7 team in just one season!

Last season the Titans finished 4th in the league in rushing attempts, and I think we can expect to see that decrease if just slightly. They clearly want to run Demarco Murray into the ground, but their off-season has made it clear their offense is going to be a new look. It's unlikely they will run as many two tight end sets as they ran last year either.

There's also reason to believe that this year the Titans passing game could go from a zero to a hero. This offense could become so potent with another year of Marcus "Marigota's" maturity, and the additions of both Davis and Decker. We may be seeing the Rise of the Titans and not even Zeus' lightning can stop them.

2017 Predictions

In the 2017 season, I expect the team to pass about 540 times which they've done as recently as 2013. That would only have moved them up to 23rd for pass attempts last season, but hey improvement is improvement right? All the passes should be attempted by Marigota barring injury.

So who leads the Titans in targets this season? I can see some of you shouting "Corey Davis! He was selected 5th overall in the draft. He and Mariota are going to write musical so beautiful together that the angels weep!" I'm not quite ready to say that Davis will be Marcus Mariota's main muse this season. I believe that honor belongs to Eric Decker.

Ignoring his injury shortened season last year, you have to go back to 2011 to find the last time Decker didn't see at least 100 targets. Even then, he still saw 96. Decker's move to Nashville will work out for him when he sees 115 targets come his way this season.

That's not to say Davis won't be a featured part of this offense as well.  He will be the Teen Titans Robin to Decker's Batman, before likely becoming Nightwing next season. He will see 100 targets,  which means he takes over Sharpe's targets plus some of the other receivers from last season. 

Just because there are some news toys in town doesn't mean we can forget about Delanie Walker. He's been a favorite of Marcus Mariota's since he came into the league. However, at age 33 he's likely to be phased out a bit. The Titans have his eventual replacement in Jonnu Smith, though I still expect Delanie to see the bulk of the targets for tight ends this season. Walker will see 95 targets, and the tight end group as a whole will take a dip from the 124 it saw last season down to 115.

That still leaves 62 targets accounted for from last season that went to Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, and Andre Johnson. Last season over the final six games Rishard Matthews put up a 38-588-6 line. He will soak up most of these targets, and still find a way to see 90.

The running back group is most likely to take a hit as a result of the new offense. With so many new weapons to use, it's unlikely that Mariota targets both the running backs and Delanie Walker as much as he used to. The training wheels are coming off, and Mariota is getting ready to announce his presence to the other gods. He will still visit the training grounds once in a while, and throw to ol' faithful Demarco Murray about 60 times with Henry potentially seeing another 20 targets.

Conclusion

That leaves 40 targets of my 540 not accounted for. That's really important to note, because I'd like to point out that I found room for everyone to get work with just a little re-organizing. It's almost as if they had better options to throw to than Wright, Douglas, Johnson, and Anthony Fasano they may have had more receivers break 100 targets!

I also expect the a good portion of the leftover targets to go to third round draft pick Taywan Taylor. This year he won't impress, but keep in mind that Decker is a free agent in 2018 and Rishard Matthews can be released for less than $1 million in dead cap money. He's someone to keep an eye on when he inevitably gets cut by one of your league-mates during the season.

I could easily see this being the first season the Titans do have three receivers targeted 100 times, but for now I'm sticking to what I assigned them. Now for everyone's favorite part where they get to critique me for my projections! Hooray!

Eric Decker

115-74-999-8

Corey Davis

100-65-875-6

Delanie Walker

95-61-725-5

Rishard Matthews

90-59-800-3

Demarco Murray

60-47-330-2

It's still not the year that the Titans have three receivers break 100 targets, but it is the year they have four break 90. It's pretty obvious that my projections show dips for both Walker and Matthews. I still see them getting plenty of looks even with Davis and Decker in town, but they take the biggest hits. You may notice though their biggest lumps come in the touchdown department. Eric Decker is known for his scoring abilities, and Corey Davis is an actual Titan at 6'3.

If these projections hold any water, this year Mariota would pass for at least 3729 yards and at least 24 touchdowns. He should easily reach 4000 yards in the air. That's not even counting what he can do on the ground. Watch your back Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and other elite quarterbacks. Mariota is on his way to joining you in the pantheon of fantasy quarterback gods, and there's no telling just how far he'll go!

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*All stats from pro-football-reference.com, and www.sports-reference.com

Breaking Down The Targets: Detroit Lions

You never forget your first. For me, when I first started playing fantasy football back in 2011 it was Matthew Stafford. My Sundays were spent being frustrated with a quarterback who I had no right to be. Stafford and I had a happy year together, going on to win a championship that guaranteed me a better shift at the college radio station I worked for.

Maybe because it's the summer I'm just feeling nostalgic for lost love, but I figured it's time I looked up how my ex has been doing. Back when I knew him, all he would do is throw the ball up in the air a million times per game to Calvin Johnson. It seems like since we split, "Fat Matt" as I affectionately called him has learned to pass less.

The Lions Pass Attempts

In 2016, Matthew Stafford attempted to pass 594 times. That was still 9th best in the league, but gone are the days when he easily attempted over 600 passes in a season. In 2012 Stafford set the record for most pass attempts in a season with a jaw dropping 727. For reference, second place all time is at 691. In the two seasons since Jim Bob Cooter took over as OC, Stafford has yet to break 600 pass attempts. Under Cooter, the passing game has clearly adopted the motto "less is more"

Despite having a name that sounds like it came straight out of King of the Hill, I don't think we can say the dip in attempts is all on Cooter. 2016 saw the departure of the King of Pride Rock himself - Calvin Johnson. So who did those 594 targets go to then?

Well, 135 went to Stafford's new golden boy conveniently named Golden Tate. Another 103 went to the newly acquired Marvin Jones.  Anquan Boldin saw 95 targets, though he was primarily used as a red zone threat. The running back group led by Theo Riddick's 67 saw a total of 114 targets. The "lion's share" of the 91 targets to the tight end position went towards Eric Ebron, who saw 85 targets. The other targets went to end of the roster guys, highlighted by the 25 targets that Andre Roberts attempted to haul in.

You'd think in conjunction with the lower amount of pass attempts the past two years, you'd see a stronger run game from the Lions right? You'd think wrong. Not once in the past two years have they had any single running back break 600 yards in the season. Last year the Lions ranked 30th in the league rushing the ball, and the year before they ranked dead last.

2017 Predictions

Many of you probably cackled like hyenas when the Lions didn't draft a running back in what was supposed to be a loaded class. They clearly believe Ameer Abdullah is their guy, and to be fair he wasn't healthy last year. Additionally, Theo Riddick wasn't healthy either. We'll see who has the last laugh here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lions draft a running back high in 2018.

For the upcoming season, that means I don't expect the pass attempts to change all that much. In fact, the offense under Cooter has been pretty consistent with 592 passes attempted in 2015, and 594 in 2016. For the purposes of this article, we'll say the lions see a slight increase to a whopping 595!

Hopefully Golden Tate doesn't turn my life into a fantasy game for writing about him, but here goes nothing.  I know people may debate me on this, but I fully expect the man whose name sounds like a breakfast cereal to see the most targets again on this team. The lowest number of targets he's been fed the last three year is 128, and with Johnson in the rear view mirror I believe he will see at least 130 again.

Anyone else a big Looney Tunes fan? I can't think of Marvin Jones without thinking of Marvin the Martian. Anyway, he had a career year in Detroit last season to the tune of 55-930-4 on 103 targets. My big concern is that almost all those stats came before week 8. In the second half of the season he played in 7 games but totaled just 19 recs for 274 yards without a touchdown. He did still pace for 101 targets and given that he should see at least 100 again.

Anquan Boldin is unlikely to be signed by the Lions, leaving behind his 95 targets. The Lions may not have drafted a running back, but a new cub has entered the pride in the form of Kenny Golladay. The third round pick in the 2017 draft has jumped up everyone's draft boards this summer, and for good reason. He was very good in college, and is tied for the tallest receiver on the team with Eric Ebron.

There's some talk that T.J Jones could potentially be the receiver used in three wide receiver sets, but considering he's yet to break 150 yards in two seasons I just don't see it. Golladay should get the bulk of the looks that Boldin is leaving behind, however I do not expect him to get all 95. He will get 85, which should be plenty for him to impress in his rookie season.

Speaking of Eric Ebron, he seems to be the forgotten man in this offense. With Boldin gone, he's likely to see more looks in the red zone which should account for a slight uptick in targets as well. He'll see 90 targets, and people will be calling him a "breakout" after this season. The tight ends as group will still see around 95 targets. 

In case you were curious, last year nine tight ends finished with 90+ targets. All nine finished in the top 12 in .5 PPR scoring. Ebron with his 85 finished as the TE14 despite missing three games. You can expect a top 12 finish this year at the very least, with room for more as you'll see below.

Finally, that brings us to the running backs. I already mentioned that neither Abdullah nor Riddick were healthy last season. You may have even forgotten that in 2015, Theo Riddick saw an incredible 99 targets. Last season, he only saw 67 and I expect that amount to go back up towards the 2015 amount.  I believe he will get 80 targets, and the running backs as a group will see an increase to around 130 because Abdullah also tends to see some work in the passing game.

Conclusion

If you were paying attention, you've noticed I'm high on a good amount of the Lions offense for this upcoming season. I guess "Hakuna Matata" really does mean no worries, because the dip in targets isn't that concerning to me. Maybe you really do never forget your first love, but I expect Stafford to have a very good season assuming everyone stays healthy. 

As you know by now though, the point of these articles is to highlight one particular player. In this case, we are going to try something a little different. I'm going to give you my projections for the main pieces of the offense in terms of targets and you can then determine who will be a value for this season and going forward.

The below are in order of targets-receptions-yardage-touchdowns

Golden Tate

130-88-1003-5

Marvin Jones

100-58-850-6

Kenny Golladay

85-57-684-4

Eric Ebron

90-63-750-7

Theo Riddick

80-60-500-3

As you can see, I'm clearly the highest on Ebron for this coming season. However, the stat line I projected would be a very nice rookie season for Golladay as well. Those would be the two pieces of the Lions offense I'd focus on acquiring this off-season, and would make Matthew Stafford a quarterback worth shouting at again on Sundays. It's the true circle of fantasy football life.

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*All stats pulled from pro-football-reference.com, www.sports-reference.com, and playerprofiler.com

Breaking Down The Targets: Green Bay Packers and Martellus Bennet

Being lactose intolerant, you'd think I'd stay away from a team whose fans wear cheese heads. However, they have one of the more interesting offenses to look at for the upcoming season. After all, they didn't draft a running back in the first few rounds meaning they're likely heading into the year with Ty Montgomery as their primary back. Since he's not a back in the traditional sense, it seems like the Packers may be inclined to throw the ball more. Let's see if that is really the case.

The Packers Pass Attempts

The Packers attempted 620 passes last season, the 5th most in the league last season. 610 of those passes were attempted by Aaron Rodgers and easily blew his old career high set last season of 572 out of the water. The other 10 were attempted by backup Brett Hundley, who wasn't overly impressive in his small sample size. There is something special to note here though-this is my first Breaking Down The Targets in a while where a receiver hasn't attempted one pass for a perfect long touchdown pass!

Maybe it's just me-but I was surprised to find that the Packers didn't have three receivers who had over 100 targets. Jordy Nelson saw the most at 152, followed by Davante Adams at 121, and finally Randall Cobb at 84. The running backs group saw 104 targets, led by converted running back Ty Montgomery who had 56. The tight-ends saw almost as many as the running backs at 103, led by pre-season hype favorite Jared Cook who had 51.That also means that the Packers WR4 + saw a total of 50 targets as a group. That's pretty significant volume tied to an elite quarterback!

So why did Aaron Rodgers suddenly reach new passing attempt heights in 2016? Eddie Lacy getting injured had to be a pretty big factor. Despite all the hate coming Lacy's way this off-season, he was averaging 5.1 YPC and 72 yards per game before the injury. Montgomery did an excellent job filling in with 5.9 YPC but he only averaged 30 yards per game. The Packers clearly limited Montgomery's volume because they were worried about defenders turning his body into Swiss cheese. 

It may be a small sample size, but ever since Edgar Bennett was promoted from wide receiver coach to offense coordinator the Packers have thrown the ball more. In his first year, Aaron Rodgers jumped from 520 attempts to 572. Then last season he jumped up to the 610 I mentioned earlier.

2017 Predictions

What does this all mean for the 2017 team? Well, since the Packers didn't draft a running back in the first few rounds-it's clear Ty Montgomery is their guy. Montgomery only rushed the ball more than 10 times in three games last season, and that includes the playoffs. That means this should be a team that still throws the ball a ton!

I'm still going to play it slightly conservatively and say that attempts do go down slightly to somewhere in the 590 range. That would have placed the Packers as the team with the 12th most attempts last season, and leaves plenty of room for all their receivers to get work.  So what will the offense look like with Mr. Touchdown Doubledown slinging the ball 590 times?

Well, Jordy Nelson is going to get the biggest cheese wheel. If I told you that Jordy would miss his entire age 30 season and come back to put up a 97-1257-14 line you probably would have laughed in my face. That's exactly what he did, and while there was a year gap he has seen back to back seasons of 150+ targets. I still expect a slight decrease for him, only because I believe the Packers will want to groom other players as his eventual replacement. With that in mind,I'll peg him for about 140 targets.

Now here is where I have to admit that I was completely wrong about a player. Back in 2015, I grew frustrated with Davante Adams and his 50% (give or take) catch rate. I shipped him and a 2016 1st for Jeremy Maclin, a 2016 1st, and 2017 2nd. Adams must have felt like he had a chip on his shoulder after being traded by my team, because last season he posted a 75-997-12 line on 122 targets. Ouch.

Some of Adams volume was due to a host of injuries to Randall Cobb (ankle, hamstring, and lungs), but he definitely showed that he is worth throwing to. I'm making the Macaulay Culkin face just typing this, but Adams should see large volume again this year. I'd expect right around 120 targets again.

Where does that leave Randall Cobb? Is he as useless as someone who just ate 10 deep fried Oreos at the Wisconsin State Fair? Not quite. He only played in 13 games last year because of all those injuries I mentioned, and still saw 84 targets.  He ended the regular season pretty horribly, but saw an average of 8 targets per game in the playoffs. In the three playoff games the Packers played, Cobb also had his best games of 2017.I don't think he will break 100 targets, but I still see 95 as a possibility.

The running backs group may see increased targets as a result of Ty Montgomery being the main guy now. However, the 56 targets he saw last season would be a three year high for the Packers. The next closest is the 55 targets Eddie Lacy saw in 2014. The running back group will get around 90 targets this season.

What does that mean for Martellus Bennett truthers? They may be disappointed. Since 2006 when Mike McCarthy took over guess how many times the Packers have targeted their tight-end at least 75 times? If you guessed 3, congrats. You win an over-sized teddy bear! 

Two of those were to Aaron Rodgers' BFF Jermichael Finley. Though things don't look ALL bad for Bennett. In the last three games of the season combined with the playoffs, Jared Cook saw 53 targets. That's more than anyone else on the team in those final six games, and was likely a significant factor in why the team signed Bennett. That said, I'm predicting him to fall short of being the 4th tight-end on the Packers to break the 75 targets under the Mccarthy regime. He will see around 70 targets this coming season.

Conclusion

Sorry Jeff Janis fans. That only leaves 50 of my predicted targets left up for grabs, and I'd expect those to get spread around. Granted, injuries could happen and we could see a guy like Geronimo Allison step up but this is what I'd expect if everyone stays healthy.

What are the takeaways? I'm very worried about Martellus Bennett. Yes he's tied to an elite quarterback, but even dating back to his days as offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy has only targeted a tight-end at least 75 times four times in his career. He's also only had a tight end break 700 yards under his watch ONCE. 

Here's what Martellus Bennett looks like on 70 targets: 49-515-5.  If that's correct he would fall from  the 8th best .5 PPR tight-end last season to around the 17th this upcoming season. The drop may not be as drastic, but I'm selling while I can still get top prices for him.

In fact, Bennett is currently going before Kyle Rudolph and Coby Fleener according to the most recent DLF ADP. At this point I'd rather flip him to acquire one of those guys, and the extra 2nd (if I'm lucky) or 3rd I could pick up in a deal for those guys. You may have gotten used to these articles telling you to acquire a player, but this time I'm telling you to put the stinky cheese away.

Until next time,

Rek

@RekedFantasy

*All stats pulled from http://www.pro-football-reference.com, and https://dynastyleaguefootball.com

Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tiers 4 & 5

Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'

Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal. 

When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.

Tier 4

Tier 4 is where you will find  my top rookie quarterbacks. In general I am pretty conservative with rookie QBs. It’s such a hard position to judge. So many factors in the offensive situation - coaching, o-line and receivers - are huge to the development of a QB. I have no problems telling you I am much more comfortable ranking QBs that have NFL stats. Of those without, I’ll rely heavily on how much draft capital was invested in them and the offense they will have to work with. Players in this range are worth a late 2nd to 3rd rounder in 1QB and a late 1st - early 2nd in 2QB. In 2QB these guys are still starters and guys that you grab hoping they will start in the future so they are pretty important in those leagues especially!

19.) Mitchell Trubisky (R)

Age: 23
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: John Fox / Dowell Loggains
Top Receivers: Cameron Meredith, Kevin White, Jordan Howard, Adam Shaheen

Trubisky was the first QB drafted and he is my top rookie QB as well, though that does not seem to be the consensus among dynasty experts. According to FantasyPros dynasty rankings, Trubisky is the 3rd ranked rookie. With just one year as a starter in college he is absolutely a risk. He has the tools though and his numbers in that one year were very nice. He had a 68% completion rate with 30 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. He also managed to do that without any top prospect receivers or running backs supporting him.

I also think the Bears offense is not the dumpster fire many perceive it to be. For starters they have a well above average interior offensive line. G Josh Sitton came over from division rival Packers and continued to play at a very high level. Rookie Center Cody Whitehair was a great surprise. He ranked as the 6th best C per PFF. Former 1st rounder Kyle Long has been an above average player throughout his career with the Bears. Those three coupled with Jordan Howard will really make things easier for Trubisky whenever he does end up starting.

As far as Trubisky’s receivers go, Cameron Meredith showed big potential in his first year as a starter in 2016. If Kevin White can actually stay healthy that is not a terrible duo by any means. Very inexperienced, but not terrible. Throw in rookies Adam Shaheen at TE and 3rd down back Tarik Cohen as well. The Bears also signed a trio of veteran WRs - Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton and Victor Cruz - to give some experience. The passing game will surely have it’s ups and downs in 2017 but I expect Trubisky to start mid season by the latest and flash enough talent to be worthy of this ranking.

20.) Patrick Mahomes II (R)

Age: 21/22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Spencer Ware, Chris Conley

The big arm of Mahomes and Andy Reid are a near-perfect pairing as far as I am concerned. If not for an expected season on the bench (and hey, anything is possible - to assume with total confidence that Mahomes will not play this year is a mistake) he might be ahead of Trubisky. He has very nice though unconventional weapons. Travis Kelce is the clear top receiver coming off an elite season for a TE. With the release of Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the WR1. His elite speed and playmaking ability make his potential with Mahomes very exciting. After those two Spencer Ware had a tremendous season as a receiver. His 13.55 yards per catch was 2nd best among all RBs last year (min 30 recs), a fraction behind Tevin Coleman but ahead of excellent receivers David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. In fact Coleman and Ware’s season ranked as the best two yards per catch of an RB over the last five years. After that trio, Chris Conley and Jehu Chesson are both superior athletes that bring size (6’2” and 6’3”) and speed (both sub 4.50 in the 40 yard). Once again good fits with Mahomes as well as complementary pieces to the diminutive Tyreek Hill.

Beyond the receivers, looking at the offense itself Andy Reid has a long history of adapting his scheme to the personnel he has around him. Just look at his time with Brett Favre in Green Bay, Donovan McNabb in Philly and Alex Smith in KC. All different but successful offenses. I am extremely confident the Chiefs will become a more aggressive down the field offense under Mahomes. Matt Nagy was co-offensive coordinator with Brad Childress last year, so this will be his first season as sole OC. He’s been with Andy Reid dating back to his time in Philly and I don’t have any worries about his coaching ability knowing he will be working closely with Reid. Depending on how much you value being able to evaluate a QB in 2017 vs waiting a year you could swap Mahomes and Trubisky. For the position I am least confident in I do value getting some NFL production right away which keeps Trubisky ahead.

21.) Tyrod Taylor

Age: 28
2016 PPG: 18.3 (8th)
HC/OC: Sean McDermott / Rick Dennison
Top Receivers: Sammy Watkins, Zay Jones, LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay

Tyrod is 28 years old and coming off back-to-back top ten seasons despite a subpar offense. To have him this low will surely be shocking to some. If you look back to the precursor section you will see how I mention situation stability as a primary factor I consider. That is my big issue with Tyrod Taylor. The Bills have never treated him like a Franchise QB. He is currently on a two year deal but has an 18 million dollar cap hit for 2018. If the new Bills regime isn’t 100% sold on Taylor, there is a good chance he is gone after 2017. Also keep in mind this team has two ‘18 1st rounders if they want to grab a QB next year. If Taylor were cut, who knows where he lands next or even if he is starts? He probably does but you never know.

For 2017 here is what he have: A QB that as a passer has thrown for 37 TDs to just 12 INTs over the past two seasons. His real fantasy value comes as a runner where he used his 4.51 speed to finish second in rushing yards in 2015 and first by over 100 yards in 2016. Coupling that with his decent low-int ability as a passer and you have a very high floor fantasy QB. Unfortunately this skillset is not as valued in the NFL. Grabbing Tyrod could be a fairly low-risk move with a chance for a big payoff in dynasty.

22.) Sam Bradford

Age: 29/30
2016 PPG: 14.8 (25th)
HC/OC: Mike Zimmer / Pat Shurmur
Top Receivers: Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook

Bradford is an extremely interesting QB to me. @Rekedfantasy explained some of that in this piece on the blog. Bradford set the all-time record in completion percentage at 71.6%. This came with little fanfare in part thanks to a disappointing season for the Vikings as well as an anemic 9.81 yards per completion. For comparison, this was below Brock Osweiler (9.82). It is a fair criticism to say Bradford dink and dunked his way to the completion percentage record.

There is however, an x-factor in this equation. On November 2nd of last year, Vikings OC Norv Turner resigned and Pat Shurmur replaced him. Shurmur has a long history with Bradford. He was the OC during Bradford’s rookie season with the Rams. He was then the OC when Bradford went to the Eagles and briefly his HC at the end of their time with Philly. For 2016, Shurmur landed with the Vikings. When Teddy Bridgewater went down with a severe knee injury, Shurmur was instrumental in convincing the team to make a play for Bradford. From Week 9 onward, Bradford did see an improvement in his numbers to 15.5 PPG. Over the final 4 games of the season the Shurmur/Bradford combo really hit it’s stride. He finally shed his dink and dunk status, raising his yards per completion to a more respectable 10.6. He was also the 7th best QB in PPG during that span! This was highlighted by a 382 yard 3 TD performance in a loss at Green Bay. Currently Teddy Bridgewater is not expected to play in 2017 and I have serious doubts about his future with the Vikings entirely.

Bradford still has a big injury history to consider. Thanks to that and a decent but not great 2016 campaign, he can be had at an extremely reasonable price. I see a surprising amount of upside here and would be very comfortable with Bradford as my QB2 in 2QB/Superflex leagues.

23.) Philip Rivers

Age: 35/36
2016 PPG: 17.2 (15th)
HC/OC: Anthony Lynn / Ken Whisenhunt
Top Receivers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams, Melvin Gordon

Rivers is a clear step below the older QBs in my 3rd tier. His PPG in 2016 was not great and he now has a new HC which can possibly help or hurt. The return of Ken Whisenhunt, Rivers’ OC for a highly productive 2013 season, is a promising indicator. Looking at the offense I do see major upside. A healthy season of Keenan Allen, progression from Hunter Henry and the addition of Mike Williams taken 7th overall? That is enough talent for an outside shot at a top 5 finish if all breaks right.

Outside of age, there are other factors at play in this ranking. Rivers has led the league in interceptions two of the past three years. Regardless of external factors, that is unacceptable. His completion percentage fell from an excellent 66.1% in 2015 to a below average 60.4% last year. That was 24th best among qualified QBs. On paper that should definitely improve with the return of Keenan Allen. It is troubling though. Was 2016 actually the start of the decline for Rivers? I definitely have that concern. Most likely the weapons he has are too good for a major fall off in 2017 but I think that age decline may come sooner than people realize.

24.) Eli Manning

Age: 36
2016 PPG: 14.8 (24th)
HC/OC: Ben McAdoo / Mike Sullivan
Top Receivers: Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Shane Vereen

I see Eli Manning as an extremely similar dynasty asset to Philip Rivers. Both have pass first offenses and end up throwing more interceptions than you’d like. Eli is almost a full year older and despite actually having his top receiver around for the entire year he had a surprisingly poor fantasy season. A big reason for that is some seriously inconsistent play. Eli had single digit fantasy points four separate times last year. Rivers had zero such games.

The Giants hope the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram will help improve some of that consistency. They bring much needed size to the unit. Odell is amazing of course, but at 5’11” he just isn’t capable of the physicality that 6’5” Brandon Marshall brings to the table. I’m pretty excited to see what the pair can bring to this offense. I would still caution that Eli is Eli and you are going to get some very frustrating games out of him.

25.) Jimmy Garoppolo

Age: 25/26
2016 PPG: 17.4 - N/A (only counting his two starts, excluding any end of game appearances.)
HC/OC - Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels
Top Receivers - GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, James White, Dwayne Allen

One of the biggest wildcards among dynasty QBs, Garoppolo finally got a chance to get meaningful playing time in 2016 with Tom Brady’s suspension. To say he did not disappointment would be an understatement. In those two games he threw for 4 touchdowns to zero interceptions while completing 71.2% of his passes. Obviously when you only throw 63 passes, every stat thrown out must be taken with a grain of salt. That said, Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 3rd in ANY/A if you lower the threshold to 50 passes. That was only behind Matt Ryan and the man Garoppolo has been stuck behind, Tom Brady. I know what some of you are thinking - “Well look at all the previous Patriots backups, everybody disappointed when they left”. First of all, I actually disagree with that statement. Second, that is a lazy argument. You have to look at each player individually and Garoppolo has the skills to be a long time starter in the NFL.

As far as dynasty is concerned, I don’t think Garoppolo should be treated too differently from rookie quarterbacks. He is a bit older and we don’t know for sure when he starts. Some expect the Patriots to franchise tag Garoppolo after this season. That means he could sit TWO more seasons before becoming a starter. We have no way of knowing what team he actually ends up starting for either. Even then as much as I like him it’s not 100% he succeeds elsewhere. That keeps him below Trubisky and Mahomes even though talent wise I actually like him more. In 2QB leagues this would be a guy to monitor and if you ever catch wind of his current owner feeling a bit frustrated with Garoppolo being stuck on the bench, try and acquire him!

Tier 5

Tier 5 is where you'll find a mix of low-end vet starting QBs, a couple more top rookies that I have reservations about and a couple other younger guys that do have some upside but are probably unlikely to be long-term quality starters. In general, if you are a championship contender, you don't want any of these guys as your backup QB, that goes for 1QB or 2QB. As a rebuilder, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and acquire the younger guys. In 1QB I'd pay a late 3rd or 4th for these guys and late 2nd to 3rd in 2QB.

27.) Joe Flacco

Age: 32
2016 PPG: 16.0 (21st)
HC/OC: John Harbaugh / Marty Mornhinweg
Top Receivers: Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Danny Woodhead, Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams

I would say Joe Flacco is the worst starting QB that also has excellent job security (and fairly so). Outside of his amazing super bowl, Flacco has never been a great QB. He’s also not bad either. He just kind of...is. For dynasty purposes, that makes him as unexciting as it gets, but he makes for an alright reliable backup. The Ravens also haven’t really done right by Flacco. I’m not sure if that is a bold statement but the best receivers he has ever had were past-their-prime Derrick Mason and Steve Smith. Honorable mentions to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. In 2015 they did attempt to give him some weapons in Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams in rounds 1 & 2. It hasn’t worked out yet as both have dealt with injuries. In 2017 we may see the Ravens prove me wrong on that statement, but for now it is fair to say that while most other teams have prioritized giving their franchise QB a stud receiver, the Ravens have been content to sign 30-somethings to smaller deals and hope Flacco can make it work.

It’s also worth noting that a once great offensive line has really been shaken up and could be the worst of Flacco’s career. Last year PFF darling Kelechi Osemele was the first piece to fall. This year a whopping three additional starters will not return. G Vlad Ducasse will not be missed. C Jeremy Zuttah and T Ricky Wagner were both above average. Thankfully the team still has the best piece from the formerly great offensive line. G Marshal Yanda is a likely future hall-of-famer. Similarly, T Ronnie Stanley is looking like a great draft pick. The other three spots will be major question marks. It could work out but it could also get ugly. The addition of Danny Woodhead was nice but I don’t think it was enough. Flacco’s receiving corps is below average and desperately needs a Perriman or Maxx Williams breakout. I’m predicting a finish outside the top 20 for Flacco.

UPDATE: Before I could publish this article, Maclin was signed to the Ravens. He's 29 but I do find it amusing that I had written about the Ravens being content to sign 30-something veterans before the Maclin signing came about. It certainly adds a much needed upgrade to the WRs and complements the deep threat ability of Wallace. However at 29 years old and coming off a down year where he was injured, I'm not super optimistic. I will say it gives Flacco a boost in 2017, but not much for dynasty purposes.

28.) Deshaun Watson (R)

Age: 21/22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Bill O’Brien (BOB is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Lamar Miller

I know being so low on Deshaun Watson is not a popular sentiment in the dynasty community. He is the #1 rookie QB for many. The case against him has a few main points. First, his ball velocity is well below average and that makes it pretty hard to succeed in the NFL. Draft Analyst Benjamin Allbright (@allbrightNFL) charts certain measurements for QBs and has a minimum threshold for a successful QB in each. His minimum ball velocity is 55 MPH. Watson was charted at 49 MPH. The most successful QBs I could find per Allbright’s charts that had such a low velo were Tyrod Taylor and Mike Glennon. Taylor is a favorable comparison although he is also considerably more mobile. Watson can run but he does not have exceptional speed. 

The second worrisome stat is Watson’s 7.9 yards per attempt as a senior. Trubisky, Mahomes and even DeShone Kizer all had better numbers. In fact, the differences become even greater when using adjusted yards per attempt which factors in touchdowns and interceptions - Watson was the most mistake prone passer of the top prospects. Looking at the past five drafts (2013 to 2017) I could only find two other QBs drafted in the first two rounds that had a sub 8.0 YPA. The first was Derek Carr - and with his dazzling 50 TDs to 8 ints his adjusted YPA came out well ahead of Watson. The second was Christian Hackenberg. I guess you could say the jury is still out on him but by most beat writer accounts he has looked awful in NFL practices. Also consider for a moment that Watson was the only top QB with a top prospect WR (Mike Williams). High ints, below average yards per attempt, had a top talent receiver. I just can't shake the feeling that it won't work out for Watson.

Let’s look at the positives for a moment, because there certainly are some. As mentioned above, he does have above average mobility. He rushed for 600 yards and 9 TDs in 2016. Considering that Dak Prescott has only slightly above average speed but managed to finish top ten in QB rush yards and tied for first in rush TDs, you can expect Watson to also be a top ten rushing QB if not top five. Watson also has a very talented HC/OC and some nice options in the receiving game with Hopkins and Fuller. I do worry about whether his lack of velocity is a mismatch for Fuller’s speed. Lastly with Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman the team has a good running attack which means the pressure to carry the offense won’t be all on the rookie QB. I know some Watson supporters will point out his winning ways in college as a significant factor in liking him. Watson was 28-2 the past two seasons and of course beat Alabama on the biggest stage in college football. If wins were an individual player stat, Kellen Moore and Colt McCoy would be great NFL quarterbacks. The success of Watson's team just isn't something I care to consider. On the whole I see a QB prospect that is far from ‘can’t miss’ and I won’t be owning him in any of my dynasty leagues.

29. DeShone Kizer (R)

Age: 21
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku

The initial reaction for many to the Browns drafting Kizer was “welp, I’ll be avoiding that dumpster fire”. Taking a closer look though, as @Besfort2QMBL did for my blog, reveals an offense that actually has a lot of promise going forward. If you look at the top receivers you will see two 1st rounders from the past two years, a top receiving back and a sizeable contract to a vet FA. Outside of Duke Johnson, the other three were handpicked with significant investments from the new regime and I like the mix. That goes along with a surprisingly very good offensive line. This is a team that is built to allow a QB to succeed. The question is - will Kizer even be that QB?

As Besfort wrote, he actually predicts Kessler will be the starter in 2017, and we can’t ignore Brock Osweiler either. Kizer has some nice attributes with prototypical QB size at 6’4” 233 lbs and a 56 MPH ball velo. As part of a pretty bad 2016 Notre Dame team, Kizer maxed out at 2925 passing yards and 26 TDs in his two years as a starter. Those are not the kind of numbers you expect from a top NFL prospect. Kizer could have greatly benefited from one more year at college but chose to leave and has even acknowledged that he is pretty raw. I’m inclined to agree with Bes - Kessler starts this year and we have to wait a year to find out if Kizer is even fantasy viable. There is upside here for sure but I don’t believe he is worth significant investment in dynasty leagues.

30.) Paxton Lynch

Age: 23
2016 PPG: 9.1 (40th) 3 games, 2 starts
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker

In looking at Paxton vs Goff you must decide for yourself - is it better to believe in a QB that hasn’t really gotten a chance to prove himself and isn’t a lock to start vs a guy that failed miserably but was a #1 overall pick and is still the starter? I will take the guy that maybe has a chance to be good over the guy that was absolutely awful. Things can change but I like working with NFL data and that works against Goff here. Of course in the little we did see of Paxton Lynch, his numbers weren’t that great. Among 48 QBs with 50 pass attempts last year, Paxton ranked 41st in ANY/A. That was well ahead of dead last Goff, but behind every other rookie QB that had 50 pass attempts - that includes Cody Kessler and Jacoby Brissett. Not to mention that Paxton had two very good to great WRs to work with, albeit with a bad offensive line.

For 2017 - and again, Paxton is NOT guaranteed to be the starter. Far from it even - the Broncos made two significant improvements via the draft. They were the first team to grab an offensive lineman in the draft with Garett Bolles 20th overall. They then grabbed Carlos Henderson in the third. Henderson is a fast receiver with elite missed tackle ability. He will be a great complement to the already present duo. Paxton also has the rare combination of a strong arm (59 mph ball velo) and a very low interception rate. He threw just 4 interceptions in his senior season at Memphis and just 1 interception as a rookie in 83 attempts. That is excellent. He definitely has some traits you want from a potential franchise QB. He’s not a sure thing but I do like him.

31. Jared Goff

Age: 22/23
2016 PPG: 8.2 (42nd)
HC/OC: Sean McVay / Matt LaFleur
Top Receivers: Tavon Austin, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Kupp, Todd Gurley, Gerald Everett

In Goff we have a second year QB that had a disaster of a rookie season, no proven talent among his receivers and an offensive line that is among the worst - and the Rams opted to go for receivers instead of adding help along the line in the draft. They did sign perennial PFF top graded Tackle Andrew Whitworth, but he will be 36 by season’s end. As well as he has played, this could easily be the year he falls off, especially with the lack of talent around him.

So where is the hope? As indicated above, the Rams did spend three of their first four picks on a tight end and two WRs. The Rams attempted to bring in receivers last year as well, drafting two TEs and two WRs - but thanks to the trade up to #1 overall, they didn’t have another pick until the 4th round and none of the players drafted last year was able to make an impact. The real hope lies in first time head coach Sean McVay. At 30 years old when hired (now 31) McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history. He has just three years of experience as an OC where he helped Jay Gruden turn Kirk Cousins into a franchise QB for Washington. With Gruden having an offensive background as well, I wonder how much McVay played into Cousin’s success but the Rams were clearly sold. Joining McVay is also a first time OC in Matt LaFleur. LaFleur spent most of the past decade as one of Kyle Shanahan’s top assistants. LaFleur himself is just 37 years old so I suppose it’s worth noting that the Rams QB coach is the more experienced Greg Olson - formerly OC for Derek Carr and Blake Bortles. This trio will be giving it their all in 2017 to make Goff a franchise QB. If 2017 is a failure, I don’t see Goff getting a third year despite his #1 pick status. Goff isn’t someone I am comfortable investing in but I am certainly excited to watch him on another owner's team to see if he can be salvaged.

32. Alex Smith

Age: 33
2016 PPG: 15.3 (22nd)
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, Spencer Ware

Alex Smith would be in the mid-20s if not for the uncertainty that surrounds him after 2017. I do think he will remain a starter, but will it be for a good team? I can see the Rams signing him to a one or two year contract while looking for their QB of the future if Goff fails. For fantasy purposes, Alex Smith has been one of the most reliable bye week fill-ins / QB2s for the past several years. In his four seasons with KC, Smith has topped out at an interception rate of 1.6%. Among QBs with 1000+ pass attempts during that time, that INT% ranks 3rd behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Of course it comes with fewer yards and touchdowns but it still shows his elite ability to not make mistakes. Smith had another solid season in 2016 but struggled to throw touchdowns, finishing with 15 in 15 games. Travis Kelce had just 4 touchdowns on 87 receptions. That needs to change, which is why they brought in Patrick Mahomes. Maybe, just maybe, Smith can go out on a high note and deliver an increased TD% in 2017. With the talent he has around him it is very possible.

There isn’t much that can be definitively said about Smith’s future because we just don’t know where he will be. He will remain the same low int guy no matter where he goes, but if it’s to a bad team like the Rams, he will be irrelevant. Let’s look at a couple more possible team fits though. Let’s say one of the older QBs like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, or Eli Manning really falls off in 2017 and gets cut. As things stand 3rd round rookie Davis Webb is the most invested in a young backup by those teams. That is far from a guaranteed future starter. Alex Smith would be the perfect stopgap for those teams if they don’t want to go into full-on rebuild mode - and none of them are built to do so. It would be especially weird to see conservative Alex Smith with the Saints but I can envision it as a possibility. They would have to transition into a more run heavy offense but I could see a 4000 yard 25 TD season there. That’s just highlighting a few possible scenarios where Smith actually ends up relevant for another couple years and this ranking is lower than it should be. Smith is probably very cheap in dynasty right now and is a solid buy as a likely starter for a few more seasons.

33.) Cody Kessler

Age: 24
2016 PPG: 9.5 (39th) (Had multiple games without playing all 4 quarters)
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC & OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku

By having Kessler so closely ranked after DeShone Kizer, I think it should be clear that I don’t have total confidence in either. Kessler had some very promising moments in his rookie season but also struggled to throw for touchdowns and had trouble staying on the field. The highlights for Kessler included just two interceptions in 195 pass attempts. Among QBs with 150 or more pass attempts, that was the 5th best rate. Kessler’s best game of the season was a two point loss to the Titans where he threw for 336 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers while completing 63% of his passes. That game highlighted Kessler's big play potential as he completed passes of 20+ yards to 4 different receivers. He had two concussions last year. For a position that generally avoids concussions, seeing Kessler get two in a single season is worrisome. On the flip side the Browns massively upgraded their o-line this year, to the point that I’d confidently say they are top ten. The Browns QB should be well protected.

In addition to the o-line upgrades, Britt and Njoku will be nice additions that help ease the loss of Terrelle Pryor. Per @ScottBarrettDFB on twitter, Kessler and Britt are actually a perfect pairing with the two leading their respective position on crossing routes. Britt may not have Pryor’s size and athleticism (although at 6’3” he’s still a big target!), but I actually think he is a better fit for Kessler. That tweet by Scott also has me thinking the Browns expect Kessler to be the starter in 2017, which is something Bes alluded to in his article for my blog. I can definitely see the year playing out with Kessler being a surprise success, but I can also see Kizer starting by season's end. I’m not sure what Kessler’s price is right now but I have to imagine he is fairly cheap which would make him a good acquisition.

34.) Trevor Siemian

Age:25/26
2016 PPG: 14.3 (25th)
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker

Siemian is pretty similar to Kessler above. He has a couple extra things going against him though. He's a year older, a new coaching staff came in and he has a 1st round pick to contend with rather than a 2nd rounder. For a guy that was nearly Mr. Irrelevant in the 2015 NFL draft, his 2016 season has to be seen as a great success. For fantasy purposes he wasn't exactly a guy you wanted to start. However, his 243 yards per game and 18 touchdowns to 10 interceptions were a promising first season to build off of. He ranked 19th of 30 QBs in ANY/A (300+ pass attempts). That was ahead of guys like Jameis Winston and Cam Newton!

I personally own Siemian/Paxton duo in one league as my QB2/3 along with Trubisky. I also traded them with a 1st rounder for Tannehill in another (both 2QB leagues). As a pair I feel like they have a lot of upside given the WRs they have to work with. It's just that I have no real feel for whether either is a franchise guy and if so which one it will be. Lynch still has the long-term upper hand being a 1st rounder. Siemian showed enough in 2016 that he has value in dynasty and is worthy of finishing out my tier 5!