37.) WR Trent Taylor, San Francisco 49ers
Taylor is an intriguing case of big time production at odds with his lack of size and athleticism. Taylor led the FBS in receiving yards, ahead of his much higher rated teammate Carlos Henderson. He was also second in receptions. His line of 136-1803-12 is eye popping. He rarely faced top teams but was at least respectable when he did. 4-68-1 against Oklahoma. 8-80-0 against Auburn. Both of those games came as a sophomore, mind you. 10-149-1 against Arkansas State in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl. 8-78-0 against Arkansas. Lastly, in their final game for Louisiana Tech it was Taylor who shined in the Armed Forces Bowl with the best performance of his college career, putting up a line of 12-233-2 against Navy in a game his team won as time expired. If Taylor could have simply put up respectable numbers at the combine it would have been so much easier to like him. Instead you get a guy that is tiny for the NFL at 5’8” 181 lbs and also very slow at 4.63. For what it’s worth Taylor also has tiny hands for a receiver at 8 and a quarter inches. According to mockdraftable.com that puts him in the 2nd percentile. If you recall from 2016, there was plenty of skepticism over Tajae Sharpe’s hand size and he comes in at 8 and three quarters inches. I love Taylor’s college production and I think he can be a decent slot receiver in the NFL but his ceiling is very much capped by his size and athleticism. He will have opportunity right away with the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan will get the most out of him, but to take him earlier than the 4th round would be quite a risk.
38.) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars
Dede was electric on the field. His 80-1524-17 line at Oklahoma is absurd. For comparison, Joe Mixon’s 37 recs and 538 rec yards were second most on the team. He also has big play speed with a 4.44 in the 40. How in the world did a guy with numbers like that fall so far? A couple domestic violence incidents were the main factor. His extremely slender frame also played a part. At 6’0” he is 4 inches taller than Taylor above and (spoiler!) Ryan Switzer below but weighs just 178 lbs. His numbers outside of the 40 yard dash were mostly poor. He is also among the older rookies and turns 24 in November. For dynasty purposes, landing with the Jags was less than ideal. I do believe Allen Robinson is firmly locked in as the WR1 while Hurns and Lee will battle for the WR2 & 3 roles. It’s hard to see Westbrook making a big impact in year one unless you think he is a phenomenal talent. In which case he should be able to pass Hurns and Lee and you should take him somewhere in the 3rd. Westbrook may have the highest ceiling of any player in my 4th round but he requires patience and certainly comes with concerns.
39.) WR Ardarius Stewart, New York Jets
Ardarius is one of those guys I look at and say “Wow, do I really have him so low?”. Ardarius was pretty productive for the Crimson Tide after you adjust for the low passing numbers. He maxed out at 54-864-8 in college, but of course Alabama runs as much as they can. He clocks in for the 40 at 4.49 which is very nice with his 5’11” 204 lbs size. He was drafted 79th overall which is much higher than some of the players elsewhere in my 4th round. He has opportunity to make an impact right away but...it’s with the Jets. The Jets are vying with the Rams for worst passing situation in the league. With the Rams signing an offensive head coach, I’d probably put the Jets at the bottom. The Jets finished 27th in pass yards and 28th in pass TDs last year. I don’t see that number improving. I’m definitely in favor of them getting some help for the pass game but their offensive outlook is so bleak that I intend to let someone else take Stewart this year and then perhaps buy him at a rather low price late in 2017 or 2018 if he shows talent or they get a better situation on offense.
40.) RB Wayne Gallman, New York Giants
Gallman was a 3 year starter for one of the premier college teams and landed with a team where he could end up starting at some point this year. I won’t be surprised if he gets taken in the late 2nd of some rookie drafts. However, looking a little deeper shows a player that doesn’t really have much to offer. Despite starting for the national champs, he numbers were not great outside of 17 touchdowns. His 4.9 YPC was well below average for an NFL prospect and also dropped off from his Sophomore year which you never like to see. When Clemson needed him most, he pretty much never stepped up. 9 carries for 34 yards when the Tigers were nearly upset by Troy. 18 for 36 in the lone loss of the season to Pittsburgh (although he did score 3 touchdowns). Lastly 18 carries for 46 yards against Alabama. Of course Alabama shut down plenty of talented running backs so make of that what you will. At the combine he did not improve his draft stock either. Gallman ran a 4.60 and finished in the bottom 50% in every drill except the bench press and broad jump. By drafting Gallman the Giants seem to have put value on Gallman playing against some of the toughest competition. If you draft Gallman it will be on the hope he starts some games this year and I’d rather look for someone with more talent but less opportunity.
41.) WR Mack Hollins, Philadelphia Eagles
Now into the 4th round you can probably guess what I like about Mack Hollins. He has the perfect size speed combo at 6’4” with a 4.53 in the 40. That led to a career yards per catch of 20.6. However he fell due to a broken collarbone in 2016 as well as an injury at the combine. Even before the broken collarbone he was not having a great senior season. He definitely needs to become more refined as a receiver as well, having maxed out at 35 catches in a year at North Carolina. He was a deep threat specialist and it remains to be seen if he can become anything more in the NFL. He also joins a very crowded receiver corps with Alshon, Jmatt and Torrey Smith at the top. I have to think he can at least pass DGB and Agholor for #4 in 2017.
42.) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Drafted in the early 3rd, 69th overall (nice), Kupp is a very divisive player in the dynasty community. As you can see, I am on the low end with him. He was incredibly productive all 4 years of college but never improved a whole lot from his freshman year. He is seen as a polished route runner. In 2016 he was 23 years old and dominating FCS competition. I was skeptical then and after a very poor combine and poor landing spot with the Rams, I am pretty much all out on Kupp. If he does fall to the late 3rd or early 4th, he would be a nice pick because of draft investment, but that is the only thing I like about him.
43.) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
I’ve seen some growing Jamaal Williams hype lately and it’s not entirely undeserved. Williams was very productive in college while playing against decent competition at BYU. He might have been drafted earlier if not for a dismal combine where he excelled in the broad jump (123”) but was awful pretty much everywhere else. At 6’0” his 212 lbs is a rather slender frame for RB. If you’ve read my earlier round articles you already know I think he just doesn’t stack up to rookie teammate Aaron Jones. Of course, they both also have to beat out Ty Montgomery who I really like as well!
44.) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
How could I have Watson so low? Especially compared to Mahomes and Kizer who are less likely to start right away. The answer is simple - I just don’t think Watson will be very good in the NFL. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Quarterback is for me easily the hardest position to project. One of the most damning statistics comes from the great @AllbrightNFL's QB spreadsheet. Ben ranks QBs and has a pretty good track record doing so. One of his main attributes is QB ball velocity. 55 MPH is his threshold for a draftable QB. Brad Kaaya and Nathan Peterman were off the list at 53 MPH. Deshaun Watson was charted at a paltry 49 MPH. He has data going back to 2008. The most successful QBs at 50 and under are Tyrod Taylor (50 MPH) and Mike Glennon (49 MPH). Tyrod is of course heavily aided by his mobility. Deshaun will move around but he will not be nearly the running QB that Tyrod was. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. For 2QB leagues he would probably vault to the late 2nd round by virtue of being a likely starter, but in 1QB leagues where starting QBs are not a scarce commodity I will gladly pass. I’d be totally okay whiffing on Watson but I’ll let someone else take that chance.
45.) RB James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
Conner is another one of my favorites that I won’t be drafting, but am excited to see his career play out. At 6’1” 233 lbs, Conner dominated the ACC as a true sophomore in 2014. Then as I’m sure you know by now, he was diagnosed with cancer in 2015. The fact that he was even able to return to the team is awesome, but to step in and put up big numbers? It’s an absolutely incredible story. The highlight would undoubtedly have to be his 187 yard 2 TD performance in a victory against eventual champion Clemson. He did start off the season pretty slowly and that’s understandable. When, if ever was he truly back to 100%? It’s hard to say. All we know for certain are the numbers we have. He continued to be a bruiser and scored 20 touchdowns but is very slow at 4.65. His bench press numbers were fine but not great. The biggest hindrance to his value is surely the fact that he got drafted by the Steelers. Le’veon Bell has had some injuries and has even been suspended but he is one of the very best in the game. That coupled with his below average athleticism has me staying away. It’s very possible he has a lot of room for growth still but I’d rather find out while he is on someone else’s team.
46.) WR Josh Malone, Cincinnati Bengals
Much like Westbrook, Malone is a guy I would have liked a lot more if he either went a round or two earlier in the draft or at least went to a team with a clearer path to targets. As it stands, he is firmly behind AJ Green and John Ross and will battle Brandon Lafell and Tyler Boyd for any sort of relevancy in 2017. Most likely he will have a very quiet rookie season. That said….this guy really checks off a lot of the boxes I look for in my prospects. For starters he is a speed demon and ran a 4.40. He also has excellent size to match at 6’3” and 208 lbs. His 50-972-11 line led Tennessee in all three categories and even had a very respectable 5 for 61 against Alabama. He had a 5-120-1 line against Nebraska in the Vols bowl game. Lastly he is just 21 years old. I struggle to understand why he fell to 128th overall in the draft. Digging a little deeper, Pro Football Focus really made him out to be a raw receiver and questioned his effort. He reminds me a lot of Chris Conley. A great guy to have on the bottom of your roster with potential to break out down the line if things work out. (I’m still rostering Conley in a couple leagues)
47.) WR Ryan Switzer, Dallas Cowboys
That brings us to Ryan Switzer who is in the same vein as Trent Taylor. In fact at 5’8” 181 lbs they are identical size and right next to each other in the 2017 SPARQ rankings. In Switzer’s favor he was drafted more than a full round earlier and played for UNC in a power-5 conference where he led the team in catches and yards with a 96-1112-6 line. He’s also a little younger and does have the slight edge in SPARQ, notably coming in faster at 4.51. Where Switzer falters is his stats. He only had one year of elite numbers to Taylor’s two (with a strong 3rd season as well). Switzer definitely faced top level competition more often but Taylor’s numbers are just so much better and as I pointed out, Taylor was at least decent against the better opponents. Perhaps more importantly, there is no immediate role for Switzer to step into. While Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are nothing special, I don’t see Switzer moving ahead of them in year one. Long term there is definitely opportunity, but it’s no guarantee he will secure one of those roles.
48.) WR De’Angelo Yancey, Green Bay Packers
Yancey is one of my favorite under the radar players. He is 6’2” 220 lbs so he has great size and he was very productive, leading the big ten in yards per catch in 2016 with a line of 49-951-10 at Purdue. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and also crushed the bench press. He flew under the radar mostly thanks to playing for an awful Purdue team that went 3-9 and while they did throw for a lot they were pretty bad at it outside of Yancey. He wasn’t drafted until the late 5th but I still expected his landing spot to catch more attention than it did. I suppose with Jordy, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb as the clear trio at the top, a likely insignificant role in 2017 for a late draft pick isn’t worth much more than a tiny blip. I still think Yancey is intriguing. Jordy is very much on the old side for a receiver and Randall Cobb could be a cut after 2017. Cobb has one of the biggest contracts for a receiver and hasn’t come close to meeting his pay. Another season that Cobb toils around 7-800 yards and he would be a cap casualty. The long-term path to targets is not nearly as bad as many seem to believe. Yancey is definitely a guy I see myself grabbing in the late 4th, though he might end up being a regretted cut when my leagues downsize at the end of the preseason.
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That wraps up my 4 round rookie draft rankings! Thanks to all who took the time to read through them. There are still a handful of players that are worth talking about beyond these 48, so I will likely be posting another article or two looking at some additional prospects to either consider drafting or grabbing on the waiver afterwards. As we know in dynasty - there is never an end to the adjusting of the bottom of your roster. If you aren’t continually on the prowl for an improvement on the worst player on your roster, you’ve lost!
Sources for all 4 rounds:
www.pro-football-reference.com / www.sports-reference.com/cfb - I seriously can’t imagine looking up statistics without these two tremendous sites.
www.playerprofiler.com - Mostly my go-to source for college dominator ratings, they also provide an excellent snapshot of athleticism for prospects as well as plenty of in-depth stats for NFL players.
https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ - SPARQ scores. Use these over xSPARQ on player profiler as they are the actual SPARQ rankings!
www.mockdraftable.com - I used to avoid this site but at some point they updated to a much nicer looking simplistic design. Detailed spider charts on size and athleticism for all combine players and plenty of non-combine pro days as well!
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