Let's begin with Jarvis Landry. Besides having the same name as Tony Stark's butler, he is best known for being one of the best fantasy assets in PPR leagues. Between 2015 and 2016 he saw his targets decrease by over 30, but increased his catch rate by over 5% and yards per catch by nearly 2 yards to put up a statistically similar seasons.
In fact, Landry is only 24 and already has two seasons of over 1,100 yards under his belt. His rookie season was nothing to scoff at either with a 84-758-5 line. Additionally, since coming into the league in 2014 Landry has the third highest catch % of all wide receivers (min 200 targets). That puts him ahead of fantasy darlings Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald! So why is he being treated like a very good asset but not an elite asset in dynasty leagues?
It's pretty obvious. Those 5 receiving touchdowns he scored in his rookie season were the most of his career to date. When you're not much of a red zone threat your ceiling is capped for fantasy purposes.
That's not the only factor impacting Landry's value though. The Dolphins have a surprisingly good group of wide receivers going into the coming year. None more hyped than Devante Parker.
Parker has been eating into Landry's perceived value since being drafted 14th overall in the 2015 draft. Parker's rookie season was interrupted by a foot injury, but he ended that season with four out of six games topping 80 yards. After witnessing what he could do in 2015, we all had understandably high hopes for him in 2016.
Much to the loud groans of the fantasy community at large, the Parker hype train got slightly derailed in 2017. It's not that he had a bad season. Rather he was very inconsistent. He'd have great weeks surrounded by weeks where he could barely put up 30 yard games.
What happened instead was the re-emergence of Kenny Stills. In 2015, the Saints looked like geniuses for getting rid of Stills when he could only manage a 63-440-3 line. Nobody saw his 81-726-9 line coming in 2016 at all.
These two guys have directly impacted the value of Landry through the "seaweed is always greener" effect. Stop me if you've heard this one before but Ariel's life was the bubbles and she had no troubles under the sea. Yet-she dreamed about going somewhere else just because it was different.
Does that sound familiar? Sort of reminds you of being a Landry owner right? You have an incredibly consistent receiver but you can't help but dream about what might be waiting out there. If you really suffer from this effect badly-you may even convince yourself that Leonte Carroo and Isaiah Ford may emerge as threats to Landry. Seek help if this sounds like you!
There's not as much reason to be afraid of the other two receivers as I mentioned either. Stills likely hit his ceiling last year especially since he only caught slightly over half the targets thrown his way. If he can't reel in more targets, you shouldn't consider him your catch of the day.
Parker, on the other hand, will likely become a killer whale in his own right. Just like everyone else this off-season, I believe it will happen this year. However, Dolphins who feed alone find themselves prey rather than predators. Parker and Landry can co-exist. If it turns out they can't, guess what? Landry's contract is up after this year.
Landry could find himself on another team that may find ways to utilize him in the red zone the Dolphins didn't think of. He may never be a touchdown machine, but the consistency of top 20 numbers in PPR year to year can't be ignored either. Don't let Landry be the sunken treasure you find but ignore because you're looking for Atlantis.
Until next time,
Rek
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