Do you remember the last time the Tennessee Titans had three receivers break 100 targets? HA! It was a trick question. There has never been a season that the Tennessee Titans had at least three receivers reach 100 targets. In fact, having two is pretty rare for them as well. It's only happened twice since 2007.
So what we have is a team that historically doesn't pass the ball as much as others. However, we also have a team that just added huge receiving weapons in Corey Davis and Eric Decker. Clearly it's going to change right? Let's see what we find.
The Titans Pass Attempts
Last season the Titans passed the ball 504 times, otherwise known as the 28th best in the league. We've spent the past few articles examining offenses that throw a ton so it seems only fair to go the opposite route. Of those 504 attempts, 451 were attempted by Marcus Mariota, 51 by Matt Cassel, and 2 by Demarco Murray. Murray also had a touchdown pass, but it was only a 10 yard strike to Delanie Walker. Not quite as impressive as Willie Snead or Marqise Lee!
As I mentioned earlier, the Titans did see two receivers break 100 targets for the first time in three seasons last year. Rishard Matthews led the way with 108, followed by Delanie Walker with 102. The next highest amount was to Tajae "not the sharpest guy in the room" Sharpe, who had 83 targets go his way. Despite all the talk of how good Henry's hands have gotten this off-season, we shouldn't forget that Demarco Murray saw 67 targets on top of all his rushing attempts last season. Additionally, Kendall Wright, Henry Douglas, and Andre Johnson saw a combined 86 targets!
It's not surprising to see the Titans have a low amount of pass attempts. Mike Mularkey before the season said he wanted to focus on an "exotic smashmouth" offense. Contrary to popular belief, that's not a tropical remix of popular smash mouth songs but rather means he wanted to focus on running the ball. Mularkey may as well be walking on the sun, because the strategy turned the Titans from a 3-13 team to a 9-7 team in just one season!
Last season the Titans finished 4th in the league in rushing attempts, and I think we can expect to see that decrease if just slightly. They clearly want to run Demarco Murray into the ground, but their off-season has made it clear their offense is going to be a new look. It's unlikely they will run as many two tight end sets as they ran last year either.
There's also reason to believe that this year the Titans passing game could go from a zero to a hero. This offense could become so potent with another year of Marcus "Marigota's" maturity, and the additions of both Davis and Decker. We may be seeing the Rise of the Titans and not even Zeus' lightning can stop them.
2017 Predictions
In the 2017 season, I expect the team to pass about 540 times which they've done as recently as 2013. That would only have moved them up to 23rd for pass attempts last season, but hey improvement is improvement right? All the passes should be attempted by Marigota barring injury.
So who leads the Titans in targets this season? I can see some of you shouting "Corey Davis! He was selected 5th overall in the draft. He and Mariota are going to write musical so beautiful together that the angels weep!" I'm not quite ready to say that Davis will be Marcus Mariota's main muse this season. I believe that honor belongs to Eric Decker.
Ignoring his injury shortened season last year, you have to go back to 2011 to find the last time Decker didn't see at least 100 targets. Even then, he still saw 96. Decker's move to Nashville will work out for him when he sees 115 targets come his way this season.
That's not to say Davis won't be a featured part of this offense as well. He will be the Teen Titans Robin to Decker's Batman, before likely becoming Nightwing next season. He will see 100 targets, which means he takes over Sharpe's targets plus some of the other receivers from last season.
Just because there are some news toys in town doesn't mean we can forget about Delanie Walker. He's been a favorite of Marcus Mariota's since he came into the league. However, at age 33 he's likely to be phased out a bit. The Titans have his eventual replacement in Jonnu Smith, though I still expect Delanie to see the bulk of the targets for tight ends this season. Walker will see 95 targets, and the tight end group as a whole will take a dip from the 124 it saw last season down to 115.
That still leaves 62 targets accounted for from last season that went to Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, and Andre Johnson. Last season over the final six games Rishard Matthews put up a 38-588-6 line. He will soak up most of these targets, and still find a way to see 90.
The running back group is most likely to take a hit as a result of the new offense. With so many new weapons to use, it's unlikely that Mariota targets both the running backs and Delanie Walker as much as he used to. The training wheels are coming off, and Mariota is getting ready to announce his presence to the other gods. He will still visit the training grounds once in a while, and throw to ol' faithful Demarco Murray about 60 times with Henry potentially seeing another 20 targets.
Conclusion
That leaves 40 targets of my 540 not accounted for. That's really important to note, because I'd like to point out that I found room for everyone to get work with just a little re-organizing. It's almost as if they had better options to throw to than Wright, Douglas, Johnson, and Anthony Fasano they may have had more receivers break 100 targets!
I also expect the a good portion of the leftover targets to go to third round draft pick Taywan Taylor. This year he won't impress, but keep in mind that Decker is a free agent in 2018 and Rishard Matthews can be released for less than $1 million in dead cap money. He's someone to keep an eye on when he inevitably gets cut by one of your league-mates during the season.
I also expect the a good portion of the leftover targets to go to third round draft pick Taywan Taylor. This year he won't impress, but keep in mind that Decker is a free agent in 2018 and Rishard Matthews can be released for less than $1 million in dead cap money. He's someone to keep an eye on when he inevitably gets cut by one of your league-mates during the season.
I could easily see this being the first season the Titans do have three receivers targeted 100 times, but for now I'm sticking to what I assigned them. Now for everyone's favorite part where they get to critique me for my projections! Hooray!
Eric Decker
115-74-999-8
Corey Davis
100-65-875-6
Delanie Walker
95-61-725-5
Rishard Matthews
90-59-800-3
Demarco Murray
60-47-330-2
It's still not the year that the Titans have three receivers break 100 targets, but it is the year they have four break 90. It's pretty obvious that my projections show dips for both Walker and Matthews. I still see them getting plenty of looks even with Davis and Decker in town, but they take the biggest hits. You may notice though their biggest lumps come in the touchdown department. Eric Decker is known for his scoring abilities, and Corey Davis is an actual Titan at 6'3.
If these projections hold any water, this year Mariota would pass for at least 3729 yards and at least 24 touchdowns. He should easily reach 4000 yards in the air. That's not even counting what he can do on the ground. Watch your back Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and other elite quarterbacks. Mariota is on his way to joining you in the pantheon of fantasy quarterback gods, and there's no telling just how far he'll go!
Until next time,
Rek
*All stats from pro-football-reference.com, and www.sports-reference.com
No comments:
Post a Comment