May 30, 2014

RB Depth Charts

Legend:
Uncontested Feature Back - These are the RBs where I feel basically anything can happen and they will remain the starter. They can run for 5 yards in the first three games and I would feel confident they will remain atop the depth chart.
Receiving Back - RB that may not be starter but should get lots of action as a receiver out of the backfield
Questionable Status - RB atop the depth chart with some uncertainty, a very real possibility they could be overtaken.
Very Uncertain - #1 RB with serious concerns. Right now I've only given two backs that distinction based on dreadful performance. And in Ray Rice's case the possible suspension only makes it more uncertain.
High Upside/potential backup - Backup running backs that have a decent chance for carries if they have a good preseason and/or injuries occur higher up. Further, these are guys that could become very nice options should they become a bigger part of the offense.
Super Sleeper - Similar to the high upside backup with the exception that at best these guys are #3 on the depth charts, generally major road blocks in their way to getting playing time. Some of these guys are just UDFA's who may not even make a team, but I have read positive things and if they do end up on the roster, they are guys I feel are worth keeping on your radar.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys:
1. Demarco Murray
2. Joseph Randle
3. Lance Dunbar
4. Ryan Williams

New York Giants
1. Rashad Jennings
2. Andre Williams
3. David Wilson
4. Peyton Hillis
5. Michael Cox

Philadelphia Eagles
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Darren Sproles
3. Chris Polk
4. David Fluellen
5. Henry Josey

Washington Redskins
1. Alfred Morris
2. Roy Helu
3. Lache Seastrunk
4. Evan Royster
5. Chris Thompson

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
1. Andre Ellington
2. Stepfan Taylor
3. Jonathan Dwyer
4. Zach Bauman
5. Jalen Parmele


San Francisco 49ers
1. Frank Gore
2. Carlos Hyde
3. Kendall Hunter
4. Marcus Lattimore
5. LaMichael James

Seattle Seahawks
1. Marshawn Lynch
2. Christine Michael
3. Robert Turbin
4. Spencer Ware

St. Louis Rams
1. Zac Stacy
2. Tre Mason
3. Benny Cunningham
4. Isaiah Pead
5. Trey Watts

NFC North

Chicago Bears
1. Matt Forte
2. Ka'Deem Carey
3. Michael Ford
4. Jordan Lynch
5. Senorise Perry

Detroit Lions
1. Reggie Bush
2. Joique Bell
3. Theo Riddick
4. Mikel Leshoure
5. Montell Owens

Green Bay Packers
1. Eddie Lacy
2. James Starks
3. Johnathan Franklin
4. DuJuan Harris
5. Rajion Neal

Minnesota Vikings
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jerick McKinnon
3. Matt Asiata
4. Joe Banyard

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
1. Steven Jackson
2. Devonta Freeman
3. Jacquizz Rodgers
4. Jason Snelling
5. Antone Smith

Carolina Panthers
1. DeAngelo Williams
2. Jonathan Stewart
3. Mike Tolbert
4. Tyler Gaffney
5. Kenjon Barner

New Orleans Saints
1. Pierre Thomas
2. Khiry Robinson
3. Mark Ingram
4. Travaris Cadet
5. Tim Flanders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Doug Martin
2. Charles Sims
3. Mike James
4. Brendan Bigelow
5. Jeff Demps

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
1. C.J. Spiller
2. Fred Jackson
3. Bryce Brown
4. Anthony Dixon

Miami Dolphins
1. Knowshon Moreno
2. Lamar Miller
3. Daniel Thomas
4. Marcus Gillislee
5. Orleans Darkwa

New England Patriots
1. Stevan Ridley
2. Shane Vereen
3. Brandon Bolden
4. James White
5. Roy Finch

New York Jets
1. Chris Johnson
2. Chris Ivory
3. Daryl Richardson
4. Bilal Powell
5. Mike Goodson

AFC West

Denver Broncos
1. Montee Ball
2. Ronnie Hillman
3. C.J. Anderson
4. Kapri Bibbs
5. Brennan Clay

Kansas City Chiefs
1. Jamaal Charles
2. Knile Davis
3. De'Anthony Thomas
4. Cyrus Gray
5. Charcandrick West

Oakland Raiders
1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Darren McFadden
3. Marcel Reece
4. Kory Sheets
5. George Atkinson

San Diego Chargers
1. Ryan Mathews
2. Danny Woodhead
3. Donald Brown
4. Marion Grice
5. Branden Oliver

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
1. Ray Rice
2. Bernard Pierce
3. Cierre Wood
4. Lorenzo Taliaferro
5. Fitzgerald Toussaint

Cincinnati Bengals
1. Giovani Bernard
2. Jeremy Hill
3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
4. Cedric Peerman
5. James Wilder Jr.

Cleveland Browns
1. Ben Tate
2. Terrance West
3. Chris Ogbonnaya
4. Isaiah Crowell
5. Dion Lewis

Pittsburgh Steelers
1. Le'Veon Bell
2. LeGarrette Blount
3. Dri Archer
4. Alvester Alexander

AFC South

Houston Texans
1. Arian Foster
2. Andre Brown
3. Dennis Johnson
4. Alfred Blue

Indianapolis Colts
1. Trent Richardson
2. Ahmad Bradshaw
3. Vick Ballard
4. Dan Herron
5. Zurlon Tipton

Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Toby Gerhart
2. Jordan Todman
3. Storm Johnson
4. Denard Robinson
5. Terrance Cobb

Tennessee Titans
1. Bishop Sankey
2. Shonn Greene
3. Dexter McCluster
4. Antonio Andrews
5. Jackie Battle

If you want to know about a specific running back, feel free to comment. You're probably best asking someone that covers a team specifically, but I can certainly fill you in based on what I have read and my opinion.

May 22, 2014

A Football Mock Draft Exercise: Drafting Players I Think Are Overvalued

I came up with this idea this morning. I got curious - what would my team look like if I took only players I felt were overpriced based on ADP? Specifically, I did not allow myself to make reaches. It had to be at least reasonable based on the rankings ESPN provided. A couple things to note: This early in the year a lot of the rankings are a bit off and they will improve as we get closer to the season. They still had Josh Gordon in the top 20 and so that kind of throws things off a bit. Also the rookies were not appropriately ranked yet. That said, I'll take a look at who I drafted and explain why I feel they are bad value.

QB: Andrew Luck (4th Round, 43rd overall)
I'm sure this will come as a surprise to some who would see this as decent value. After all, Luck did finish as QB4 last year and he now has Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief to throw to. What's the problem? Well for starters Andrew Luck's end of year ranking was propelled by a few particularly big games (four at 24 points or more) and then just steady consistency the rest of the season. Consistency is nice and certainly a fantasy asset, but his 15 and 13 points in week 15 and 16 weren't winning you any championships. He went only 13 picks after Aaron Rodgers who I see as considerably better and 10+ picks before Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford, who I probably prefer. In fact, I prefer Colin Kaepernick, who also has much improved receivers this year, over Luck. Kaepernick fell to the 7th round.

RB1: Doug Martin (1st Round, 6th Overall)
Doug Martin was ranked 9th on ESPN's board, so at 6th overall I did have to reach over a few guys that I like at this pick that probably would have gone before Martin in 99% of drafts. Doug Martin had a phenomenal 2012 rookie season. In 2013 even when healthy he didn't look the same. His YPC was a full yard worse than it was in year one. He was still producing some value because he was getting a ton of carries (which increased the chance for his injury) but even then he had just one TD on the season. He was also catching fewer balls per game for fewer yards. Doug Martin has a ton of upside but I currently have him outside my top ten at the position because there are safer players you can get in the first round. My real pick here would likely have been Eddie Lacy.

RB2: Zac Stacy (2nd Round, 19th Overall)
Another pick that would be pretty appealing to many. Stacy actually 'fell' to me at 19th overall, as he was ranked 11th. Put simply, I am just not a big Zac Stacy fan. He came on strong but seemed to falter as the season wore on and he also dealt with some ankle (might have been foot?) problems. In his last five games he only had one with a YPC of 4.0 or better. His involvement in the passing game also shrunk as the season wore on. He was quite promising early with rec. yards of 34 and 51, but he would only total more than 10 yards just once in the final seven games (and that was still just 23 yards). Stacy to me seems like a guy that will either completely validate his draft position by being a true feature back with tons of carries or he could quickly fall off the map with one of the other RBs (Cunningham, Tre Mason, or Isaiah Pead) basically doing the same thing Stacy did in 2013. I would have much preferred to grab one of the elite receivers left in AJ Green or Julio Jones. At RB I would have taken Reggie Bush, Le'Veon Bell or Montee Ball first.

WR1: Larry Fitzgerald (3rd Round, 30th Overall)
Fitzgerald is obviously an extremely talented player and rebounded nicely from a terrible 2012 that was through little fault of his own. But even with Carson Palmer throwing, Fitzgerald couldn't get to 1,000 yards while emerging potential star Michael Floyd was able to do so opposite Fitz. I don't think Fitzgerald is on the decline just yet but based on the fact he hasn't exceeded 1,000 yards in the past two seasons, he does not deserve to be drafted this early. Out of the next 7 WRs drafted, only the injured Randall Cobb did not exceed 1,000 yards. Drafting Fitz in the third is drafting on name value alone. My pick here would have been Aaron Rodgers or Alshon Jeffery.

WR2: Emmanuel Sanders (7th Round, 78th Overall)
Sanders represents a ton of value here if you think he completely replaces Eric Decker getting all of his receptions, yards and TDs. Its certainly possible, but more likely I see at least some of those targets going to Demaryius and Julius Thomas as well as Welker if he plays a full slate and maybe throw in some Cody Latimer as well. For what its worth, Sanders had the second fewest yards of any receiver with 100+ targets. Only Dwayne Bowe was worse. One other point is that the Broncos are almost certain to regress some. Sanders is likely due for a decent season, but at the very least I wouldn't draft him planning to use him every week. That is a best case scenario. I could have grabbed Jordan Reed at TE, Sproles or Gerhart at RB here, one of several decent QBs still on the board along with Torrey Smith, Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright at WR, all of whom I prefer.

TE: Dennis Pitta (6th Round 67th Overall)
Okay yes, Dennis Pitta is talented, but for someone whose best season is 669 yards and 7 TDs who also just came off a major injury to average just 42 yards a game in four games last season, Pitta is way overrated by ESPN. Did I mention the Ravens signed Owen Daniels as well, whom new OC Gary Kubiak loves? None of this indicates to me that Pitta is due for a breakout season that makes him worthy of coming off the board around the same time as Jordan Cameron and Jason Witten. Sure, Kubiak likes to use his TEs in the passing game but with two splitting the targets I'm just not seeing Pitta as super valuable. Much rather have Greg Olsen who fell to 96th overall or the aforementioned Jordan Reed who was still available in the 7th.

Flex: Trent Richardson (5th Round, 54th Overall)
Welcome to my least favorite pick that anyone could make. Richardson and Ray Rice battled for least valuable pick (excluding injuries) all season long, but I'd have to give Richardson the edge based on the fact that he was beat out by the pedestrian Donald Brown. Richardson took a big step backward this past year so I'm not sure why anyone would feel great about him taking a big step forward in 2014. I count at least 10 RBs I would prefer ahead of Richardson here. Most notably, Andre Ellington, Toby Gerhart and Darren Sproles.

D/ST: San Francisco 49ers (9th Round, 102nd Overall)
The 49ers should certainly be a very solid and dependable defense. But with many solid receivers still on the board, I am not interested in any defense until at least the 12th round. Guys like Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright and Jeremy Maclin all still available.

K: Mason Crosby (15th Round, 174th Overall)
At this point there is really no bad value and Crosby is decent. I would still wait until the 16th and final round and grab any kicker. Take some flier player with lots of upside here just in case by some chance someone else was planning on taking him as well.

Bench:
RBs:
Shonn Greene (8th Round, 91st Overall)
Mark Ingram (11th Round, 126th Overall)
Donald Brown (12th Round, 139th Overall)
James Starks (16th Round, 187th Overall)
You can probably see the pattern here. These are all guys in a time share with little upside. Ingram did look decent and Brown finish 2nd among all RBs in YPC (whaaat!?) but I still like Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead better.

WRs:
Rueben Randle (10th Round, 115th Overall)
Markus Wheaton (14th Round, 163rd Overall)
Some people still like Randle, but I soured on him as the season progressed and Jerrell Jernigan looked pretty good at the end of the season. Not seeing the upside there.

TE:
Heath Miller (13th Round, 150th Overall)
Again, not much upside. Miller might end up being a reliable consistent TE2 but I would much prefer high upside guys like Tyler Eifert or Zach Ertz who are being way underdrafted.

Alright, that wraps up my mock draft experiment. I have a reliable QB, two feature backs I don't trust much, WRs with questions, a TE with even more uncertainty and then a nice DEF and K that I overpaid for at the cost of a terrible bench. Having a great bench is huge in the NFL with so many injuries. If you strongly disagree with one of the players I dislike, or want to make a comment on any aspect, please do so!

May 13, 2014

Early 2014 RB Rankings

First thing, please note - RB rankings this early are very subject to change. So many things happen that result in guys moving up or down. Because of that I've listed 100 guys AND additional super sleepers + UDFA's that didn't make the list. Those guys mentioned outside of the top 100 intrigue me but at the moment are way down on depth charts. There is only one rookie in the top 30 for now, but over the course of the next few months I guarantee the buzz will generate for one guy outside the top 30.

Denotes rookie

  1. Jamaal Charles
  2. LeSean McCoy
  3. Matt Forte
  4. Adrian Peterson
  5. Alfred Morris
  6. Eddie Lacy
  7. DeMarco Murray
  8. Reggie Bush
  9. Marshawn Lynch
  10. Arian Foster
  11. Doug Martin
  12. CJ Spiller
  13. Le'Veon Bell
  14. Montee Ball
  15. Chris Johnson
  16. Zac Stacy
  17. Frank Gore
  18. Giovani Bernard
  19. Ryan Mathews
  20. Darren Sproles
  21. Bishop Sankey
  22. Ben Tate
  23. Shane Vereen
  24. Toby Gerhart
  25. Knowshon Moreno
  26. Andre Ellington
  27. Stevan Ridley
  28. Joique Bell
  29. Fred Jackson
  30. Ray Rice
  31. Rashaad Jennings
  32. Trent Richardson
  33. Steven Jackson
  34. Maurice Jones-Drew
  35. Tre Mason
  36. Darren McFadden
  37. DeAngelo Williams
  38. Danny Woodhead
  39. David Wilson
  40. Andre Williams
  41. Devonta Freeman
  42. Chris Ivory
  43. Shonn Greene
  44. Jeremy Hill
  45. Lamar Miller
  46. Pierre Thomas
  47. Andre Brown
  48. Ahmad Bradshaw
  49. Stepfan Taylor
  50. Khiry Robinson
  51. Dri Archer
  52. Charles Sims
  53. Donald Brown
  54. De'Anthony Thomas
  55. Jonathan Stewart
  56. Terrance West
  57. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
  58. Carlos Hyde
  59. Mike Goodson
  60. Bernard Pierce
  61. Jerrick McKinnon
  62. Jacquizz Rodgers
  63. Storm Johnson
  64. Marcel Reece
  65. LeGarrette Blount
  66. Mark Ingram
  67. Ka'Deem Carey
  68. Christine Michael
  69. James Starks
  70. Bryce Brown
  71. James White
  72. Kenjon Barner
  73. Knile Davis
  74. Daniel Thomas
  75. Lache Seastrunk
  76. Joseph Randle
  77. Chris Ogbonnaya
  78. CJ Anderson
  79. Kendall Hunter
  80. Johnathan Franklin
  81. Alfred Blue
  82. Benny Cunningham
  83. Robert Turbin
  84. Jordan Todman
  85. Ronnie Hillman
  86. Roy Helu
  87. Tyler Gaffney
  88. Mike James
  89. Latavius Murray
  90. Antonio Andrews
  91. Marion Grice
  92. Daryl Richardson
  93. Brandon Bolden
  94. Isaiah Crowell
  95. Lorenzo Taliaferro
  96. Peyton Hillis
  97. Bilal Powell
  98. Jonathan Dwyer
  99. Vick Ballard
  100. Lance Dunbar
Super sleepers: Dennis Johnson, Texans; Theo Riddick, Lions; Marcus Lattimore, 49ers; Cierre Wood, Ravens; Kory Sheets, Raiders

UDFA's that could make an impact: Zurlon Tipton, Colts; Damien Willaims, Dolphins; George Atkinson, Raiders; Rajion Neal, Packers; Jordan Lynch, Bears; Zach Bauman, Cardinals; James Wilder Jr, Bengals; Kapri Bibbs, Broncos; Ladarius Perkins, Packers

May 11, 2014

Way Early QB Rankings


* Denotes projected starter
Denotes rookie

1. Peyton Manning* - DEN
2. Drew Brees* - NO
3. Matthew Stafford* - DET
4. Aaron Rodgers* - GB
5. Colin Kaepernick* - SF
6. Robert Griffin III* - WAS
7. Philip Rivers* - SD
8. Andrew Luck* - IND
9. Jay Cutler* - CHI
10. Cam Newton* - CAR
11. Tony Romo* - DAL
12. Tom Brady* - NE
13. Nick Foles* - PHI
14. Russell Wilson* - SEA
15. Andy Dalton* - CIN
16. Ryan Tannehill* - MIA
17. Matt Ryan* - ATL
18. Ben Roethlisberger* - PIT
19. Carson Palmer* - ARI
20. Eli Manning* - NYG
21. Alex Smith* - KC
22. Joe Flacco* -BAL
23. Johnny Manziel* - CLE
24. Josh McCown* - TAM
25. EJ Manuel* - BUF
26. Chad Henne*- JAX
27. Teddy Bridgewater* - MIN
28. Michael Vick - NYJ
29. Jake Locker* - TEN
30. Sam Bradford* - STL
31. Matt Schaub* - OAK
32. Matt Cassel - MIN
33. Ryan Fitzpatrick* - HOU
34. Geno Smith* - NYJ
35. Mike Glennon - TAM
36. Brian Hoyer - CLE
37. Blake Bortles - JAX
38. Case Keenum - HOU
39. Derek Carr - OAK
40. Zach Mettenberger - TEN
41. Kirk Cousins - WAS
42. Kyle Orton - DAL
43. David Fales - CHI
44. Jason Campbell - CIN
45. Thad Lewis - BUF
46. Brock Osweiler - DEN
47. Mark Sanchez - PHI
48. Matt Flynn - GB
49. Jimmy Garoppolo - NE
50. Josh Freeman - NYG