I came up with this idea this morning. I got curious - what would my team look like if I took only players I felt were overpriced based on ADP? Specifically, I did not allow myself to make reaches. It had to be at least reasonable based on the rankings ESPN provided. A couple things to note: This early in the year a lot of the rankings are a bit off and they will improve as we get closer to the season. They still had Josh Gordon in the top 20 and so that kind of throws things off a bit. Also the rookies were not appropriately ranked yet. That said, I'll take a look at who I drafted and explain why I feel they are bad value.
QB: Andrew Luck (4th Round, 43rd overall)
I'm sure this will come as a surprise to some who would see this as decent value. After all, Luck did finish as QB4 last year and he now has Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief to throw to. What's the problem? Well for starters Andrew Luck's end of year ranking was propelled by a few particularly big games (four at 24 points or more) and then just steady consistency the rest of the season. Consistency is nice and certainly a fantasy asset, but his 15 and 13 points in week 15 and 16 weren't winning you any championships. He went only 13 picks after Aaron Rodgers who I see as considerably better and 10+ picks before Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford, who I probably prefer. In fact, I prefer Colin Kaepernick, who also has much improved receivers this year, over Luck. Kaepernick fell to the 7th round.
RB1: Doug Martin (1st Round, 6th Overall)
Doug Martin was ranked 9th on ESPN's board, so at 6th overall I did have to reach over a few guys that I like at this pick that probably would have gone before Martin in 99% of drafts. Doug Martin had a phenomenal 2012 rookie season. In 2013 even when healthy he didn't look the same. His YPC was a full yard worse than it was in year one. He was still producing some value because he was getting a ton of carries (which increased the chance for his injury) but even then he had just one TD on the season. He was also catching fewer balls per game for fewer yards. Doug Martin has a ton of upside but I currently have him outside my top ten at the position because there are safer players you can get in the first round. My real pick here would likely have been Eddie Lacy.
RB2: Zac Stacy (2nd Round, 19th Overall)
Another pick that would be pretty appealing to many. Stacy actually 'fell' to me at 19th overall, as he was ranked 11th. Put simply, I am just not a big Zac Stacy fan. He came on strong but seemed to falter as the season wore on and he also dealt with some ankle (might have been foot?) problems. In his last five games he only had one with a YPC of 4.0 or better. His involvement in the passing game also shrunk as the season wore on. He was quite promising early with rec. yards of 34 and 51, but he would only total more than 10 yards just once in the final seven games (and that was still just 23 yards). Stacy to me seems like a guy that will either completely validate his draft position by being a true feature back with tons of carries or he could quickly fall off the map with one of the other RBs (Cunningham, Tre Mason, or Isaiah Pead) basically doing the same thing Stacy did in 2013. I would have much preferred to grab one of the elite receivers left in AJ Green or Julio Jones. At RB I would have taken Reggie Bush, Le'Veon Bell or Montee Ball first.
WR1: Larry Fitzgerald (3rd Round, 30th Overall)
Fitzgerald is obviously an extremely talented player and rebounded nicely from a terrible 2012 that was through little fault of his own. But even with Carson Palmer throwing, Fitzgerald couldn't get to 1,000 yards while emerging potential star Michael Floyd was able to do so opposite Fitz. I don't think Fitzgerald is on the decline just yet but based on the fact he hasn't exceeded 1,000 yards in the past two seasons, he does not deserve to be drafted this early. Out of the next 7 WRs drafted, only the injured Randall Cobb did not exceed 1,000 yards. Drafting Fitz in the third is drafting on name value alone. My pick here would have been Aaron Rodgers or Alshon Jeffery.
WR2: Emmanuel Sanders (7th Round, 78th Overall)
Sanders represents a ton of value here if you think he completely replaces Eric Decker getting all of his receptions, yards and TDs. Its certainly possible, but more likely I see at least some of those targets going to Demaryius and Julius Thomas as well as Welker if he plays a full slate and maybe throw in some Cody Latimer as well. For what its worth, Sanders had the second fewest yards of any receiver with 100+ targets. Only Dwayne Bowe was worse. One other point is that the Broncos are almost certain to regress some. Sanders is likely due for a decent season, but at the very least I wouldn't draft him planning to use him every week. That is a best case scenario. I could have grabbed Jordan Reed at TE, Sproles or Gerhart at RB here, one of several decent QBs still on the board along with Torrey Smith, Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright at WR, all of whom I prefer.
TE: Dennis Pitta (6th Round 67th Overall)
Okay yes, Dennis Pitta is talented, but for someone whose best season is 669 yards and 7 TDs who also just came off a major injury to average just 42 yards a game in four games last season, Pitta is way overrated by ESPN. Did I mention the Ravens signed Owen Daniels as well, whom new OC Gary Kubiak loves? None of this indicates to me that Pitta is due for a breakout season that makes him worthy of coming off the board around the same time as Jordan Cameron and Jason Witten. Sure, Kubiak likes to use his TEs in the passing game but with two splitting the targets I'm just not seeing Pitta as super valuable. Much rather have Greg Olsen who fell to 96th overall or the aforementioned Jordan Reed who was still available in the 7th.
Flex: Trent Richardson (5th Round, 54th Overall)
Welcome to my least favorite pick that anyone could make. Richardson and Ray Rice battled for least valuable pick (excluding injuries) all season long, but I'd have to give Richardson the edge based on the fact that he was beat out by the pedestrian Donald Brown. Richardson took a big step backward this past year so I'm not sure why anyone would feel great about him taking a big step forward in 2014. I count at least 10 RBs I would prefer ahead of Richardson here. Most notably, Andre Ellington, Toby Gerhart and Darren Sproles.
D/ST: San Francisco 49ers (9th Round, 102nd Overall)
The 49ers should certainly be a very solid and dependable defense. But with many solid receivers still on the board, I am not interested in any defense until at least the 12th round. Guys like Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright and Jeremy Maclin all still available.
K: Mason Crosby (15th Round, 174th Overall)
At this point there is really no bad value and Crosby is decent. I would still wait until the 16th and final round and grab any kicker. Take some flier player with lots of upside here just in case by some chance someone else was planning on taking him as well.
Bench:
RBs:
Shonn Greene (8th Round, 91st Overall)
Mark Ingram (11th Round, 126th Overall)
Donald Brown (12th Round, 139th Overall)
James Starks (16th Round, 187th Overall)
You can probably see the pattern here. These are all guys in a time share with little upside. Ingram did look decent and Brown finish 2nd among all RBs in YPC (whaaat!?) but I still like Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead better.
WRs:
Rueben Randle (10th Round, 115th Overall)
Markus Wheaton (14th Round, 163rd Overall)
Some people still like Randle, but I soured on him as the season progressed and Jerrell Jernigan looked pretty good at the end of the season. Not seeing the upside there.
TE:
Heath Miller (13th Round, 150th Overall)
Again, not much upside. Miller might end up being a reliable consistent TE2 but I would much prefer high upside guys like Tyler Eifert or Zach Ertz who are being way underdrafted.
Alright, that wraps up my mock draft experiment. I have a reliable QB, two feature backs I don't trust much, WRs with questions, a TE with even more uncertainty and then a nice DEF and K that I overpaid for at the cost of a terrible bench. Having a great bench is huge in the NFL with so many injuries. If you strongly disagree with one of the players I dislike, or want to make a comment on any aspect, please do so!
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