Career to date
The former Florida State product ended up a first round draft pick for the Panthers after putting up 54-1011-15 line in his final collegiate season. He did not disappoint in his rookie season of the NFL either. His 73-1008-9 line in 15 games started as a rookie could be called nothing but a success.
He couldn't quite continue that level of production in 2015. He had a 0-0-0 line. Oh. He tore his ACL in training camp you say? It's not fair to hold that season against him? Alright you win this time.
So what did he do coming off a torn his torn ACL in 2016? He posted a 63-941-7 line. Seems pretty good for a guy who had just been out of football for a year.
That's not to say the criticism of the man known as KB is totally unwarranted. His career catch rate is only slightly above 50% and many think he needs volume to put up any kind of numbers. His athletic profile has playerprofiler.com hilariously comparing him to Smurf's villain Gargamel. He came into the NFL "old" for a rookie at the age of 23. Additionally, the Panthers just drafted Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel who can be seen as threats to Benjamin's volume.
Understanding the Panthers Offense
To understand Benjamin's value-we need to understand the Panthers offense. Last season, the Panthers attempted 563 passes while still running the ball the 7th most times in the league! 129 of those targets went to Greg Olsen, 118 to Kelvin Benjamin, 95 to Ted Ginn, 58 to Devin Funchess, 53 to Corey Brown, and the remaining 110 we will just call "misc".
It's important to note that Cam has a shoulder injury, and while recovery appears to be going well it's reasonable to expect that his pass attempts may dip. A stronger run game with McCaffrey means this almost certainly will be the case. So what does that mean for the Panthers receivers and more specifically Benjamin?
No one expects Greg Olsen to lose any targets. He's Cam's most trusted target and has shown no signs of letting father time catch him despite being over 30. The only way he is losing targets if he is gets injured. Considering he's played all 16 games the past 5 seasons, I wouldn't take the Vegas odds against him.
The 95 targets to Ted Ginn are very interesting though. Ginn must have watched the movie "Chef" and got a hankering for a good beignet. That and the appeal of catching passes from Drew Brees likely drew him to the Saints. Those 95 targets are where I expect the majority of work for Curtis Samuel to come from. Add in the 53 targets from Corey Brown and that's more than enough work for Samuel without dipping into Benjamin's targets.
What about Christian McCaffrey-he's a great receiving back! Well, it's not much of a secret I've pretty much always hated Jonathan Stewart as a fantasy player. It may have been unwarranted, but this year it feels very warranted finally. Clearly I've been right for the past three years guys!
That's not to say I believe the Panthers will only target McCaffrey 21 times like they have with Jonathan Stewart the past few seasons. The Panthers clearly intend to ramp up their short passing game, and McCaffrey is a huge part of that. However, let's say that Curtis Samuel gets around 100 targets. That would still leave 48 targets unaccounted for that could come McCaffrey's way. Add in the 21 from Jonathan Stewart, and that amount of targets would put McCaffrey well in the top ten for receiving backs.
Conclusion
Let's bring it all back to Benjamin. Besides Greg Olsen, he is the Panthers greatest down the field and red zone threat. The Panthers may be working on the short game, but we all know that Cam has a lot of pride and loves to throw the ball down the field. The team may get sick of throwing to a receiver who has about a coin flips chance of catching the ball, but he will give them the best chance on 50/50 balls.
If we err on the side of caution, I'll say Cam Newton throws the ball about 450 times. That would be a career low in attempts per game. That's also not accounting for garbage time passes attempted by any other Panthers quarterback this season. Playing it conservatively, I'll say the Panthers pass the ball 500 times this upcoming season. Assuming around 125 targets for Olsen, 100 for Samuel, 70 for McCaffrey (being generous), that leaves 205 unaccounted for. I'm going to say at least 100 of those go to Benjamin who puts up a line of 60-850-7.
According to DLF ADP these are a few guys going ahead of Kelvin Benjamin right now: fantasy twitter darling Donte Moncrief, Terrelle Pryor, and Jamison Crowder. With the exception of Crowder, I'd take Benjamin over these guys. I realize this is likely to be a very unpopular opinion. However, I lifted up the Gargamel mask KB was wearing and found a misunderstood hero instead. He's not the fantasy football player we deserve, but he is one we all need.
Until next time,
Rek
@RekedFantasy
*All stats pulled from http://www.sports-reference.com and http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ please show them your support!
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