Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
Tier 4
Tier 4 is where you will find my top rookie quarterbacks. In general I am pretty conservative with rookie QBs. It’s such a hard position to judge. So many factors in the offensive situation - coaching, o-line and receivers - are huge to the development of a QB. I have no problems telling you I am much more comfortable ranking QBs that have NFL stats. Of those without, I’ll rely heavily on how much draft capital was invested in them and the offense they will have to work with. Players in this range are worth a late 2nd to 3rd rounder in 1QB and a late 1st - early 2nd in 2QB. In 2QB these guys are still starters and guys that you grab hoping they will start in the future so they are pretty important in those leagues especially!
19.) Mitchell Trubisky (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: John Fox / Dowell Loggains
Top Receivers: Cameron Meredith, Kevin White, Jordan Howard, Adam Shaheen
Trubisky was the first QB drafted and he is my top rookie QB as well, though that does not seem to be the consensus among dynasty experts. According to FantasyPros dynasty rankings, Trubisky is the 3rd ranked rookie. With just one year as a starter in college he is absolutely a risk. He has the tools though and his numbers in that one year were very nice. He had a 68% completion rate with 30 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. He also managed to do that without any top prospect receivers or running backs supporting him.
I also think the Bears offense is not the dumpster fire many perceive it to be. For starters they have a well above average interior offensive line. G Josh Sitton came over from division rival Packers and continued to play at a very high level. Rookie Center Cody Whitehair was a great surprise. He ranked as the 6th best C per PFF. Former 1st rounder Kyle Long has been an above average player throughout his career with the Bears. Those three coupled with Jordan Howard will really make things easier for Trubisky whenever he does end up starting.
As far as Trubisky’s receivers go, Cameron Meredith showed big potential in his first year as a starter in 2016. If Kevin White can actually stay healthy that is not a terrible duo by any means. Very inexperienced, but not terrible. Throw in rookies Adam Shaheen at TE and 3rd down back Tarik Cohen as well. The Bears also signed a trio of veteran WRs - Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton and Victor Cruz - to give some experience. The passing game will surely have it’s ups and downs in 2017 but I expect Trubisky to start mid season by the latest and flash enough talent to be worthy of this ranking.
20.) Patrick Mahomes II (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Spencer Ware, Chris Conley
The big arm of Mahomes and Andy Reid are a near-perfect pairing as far as I am concerned. If not for an expected season on the bench (and hey, anything is possible - to assume with total confidence that Mahomes will not play this year is a mistake) he might be ahead of Trubisky. He has very nice though unconventional weapons. Travis Kelce is the clear top receiver coming off an elite season for a TE. With the release of Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the WR1. His elite speed and playmaking ability make his potential with Mahomes very exciting. After those two Spencer Ware had a tremendous season as a receiver. His 13.55 yards per catch was 2nd best among all RBs last year (min 30 recs), a fraction behind Tevin Coleman but ahead of excellent receivers David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. In fact Coleman and Ware’s season ranked as the best two yards per catch of an RB over the last five years. After that trio, Chris Conley and Jehu Chesson are both superior athletes that bring size (6’2” and 6’3”) and speed (both sub 4.50 in the 40 yard). Once again good fits with Mahomes as well as complementary pieces to the diminutive Tyreek Hill.
Beyond the receivers, looking at the offense itself Andy Reid has a long history of adapting his scheme to the personnel he has around him. Just look at his time with Brett Favre in Green Bay, Donovan McNabb in Philly and Alex Smith in KC. All different but successful offenses. I am extremely confident the Chiefs will become a more aggressive down the field offense under Mahomes. Matt Nagy was co-offensive coordinator with Brad Childress last year, so this will be his first season as sole OC. He’s been with Andy Reid dating back to his time in Philly and I don’t have any worries about his coaching ability knowing he will be working closely with Reid. Depending on how much you value being able to evaluate a QB in 2017 vs waiting a year you could swap Mahomes and Trubisky. For the position I am least confident in I do value getting some NFL production right away which keeps Trubisky ahead.
21.) Tyrod Taylor
2016 PPG: 18.3 (8th)
HC/OC: Sean McDermott / Rick Dennison
Top Receivers: Sammy Watkins, Zay Jones, LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay
Tyrod is 28 years old and coming off back-to-back top ten seasons despite a subpar offense. To have him this low will surely be shocking to some. If you look back to the precursor section you will see how I mention situation stability as a primary factor I consider. That is my big issue with Tyrod Taylor. The Bills have never treated him like a Franchise QB. He is currently on a two year deal but has an 18 million dollar cap hit for 2018. If the new Bills regime isn’t 100% sold on Taylor, there is a good chance he is gone after 2017. Also keep in mind this team has two ‘18 1st rounders if they want to grab a QB next year. If Taylor were cut, who knows where he lands next or even if he is starts? He probably does but you never know.
For 2017 here is what he have: A QB that as a passer has thrown for 37 TDs to just 12 INTs over the past two seasons. His real fantasy value comes as a runner where he used his 4.51 speed to finish second in rushing yards in 2015 and first by over 100 yards in 2016. Coupling that with his decent low-int ability as a passer and you have a very high floor fantasy QB. Unfortunately this skillset is not as valued in the NFL. Grabbing Tyrod could be a fairly low-risk move with a chance for a big payoff in dynasty.
22.) Sam Bradford
2016 PPG: 14.8 (25th)
HC/OC: Mike Zimmer / Pat Shurmur
Top Receivers: Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook
Bradford is an extremely interesting QB to me. @Rekedfantasy explained some of that in this piece on the blog. Bradford set the all-time record in completion percentage at 71.6%. This came with little fanfare in part thanks to a disappointing season for the Vikings as well as an anemic 9.81 yards per completion. For comparison, this was below Brock Osweiler (9.82). It is a fair criticism to say Bradford dink and dunked his way to the completion percentage record.
There is however, an x-factor in this equation. On November 2nd of last year, Vikings OC Norv Turner resigned and Pat Shurmur replaced him. Shurmur has a long history with Bradford. He was the OC during Bradford’s rookie season with the Rams. He was then the OC when Bradford went to the Eagles and briefly his HC at the end of their time with Philly. For 2016, Shurmur landed with the Vikings. When Teddy Bridgewater went down with a severe knee injury, Shurmur was instrumental in convincing the team to make a play for Bradford. From Week 9 onward, Bradford did see an improvement in his numbers to 15.5 PPG. Over the final 4 games of the season the Shurmur/Bradford combo really hit it’s stride. He finally shed his dink and dunk status, raising his yards per completion to a more respectable 10.6. He was also the 7th best QB in PPG during that span! This was highlighted by a 382 yard 3 TD performance in a loss at Green Bay. Currently Teddy Bridgewater is not expected to play in 2017 and I have serious doubts about his future with the Vikings entirely.
Bradford still has a big injury history to consider. Thanks to that and a decent but not great 2016 campaign, he can be had at an extremely reasonable price. I see a surprising amount of upside here and would be very comfortable with Bradford as my QB2 in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
23.) Philip Rivers
2016 PPG: 17.2 (15th)
HC/OC: Anthony Lynn / Ken Whisenhunt
Top Receivers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams, Melvin Gordon
Rivers is a clear step below the older QBs in my 3rd tier. His PPG in 2016 was not great and he now has a new HC which can possibly help or hurt. The return of Ken Whisenhunt, Rivers’ OC for a highly productive 2013 season, is a promising indicator. Looking at the offense I do see major upside. A healthy season of Keenan Allen, progression from Hunter Henry and the addition of Mike Williams taken 7th overall? That is enough talent for an outside shot at a top 5 finish if all breaks right.
Outside of age, there are other factors at play in this ranking. Rivers has led the league in interceptions two of the past three years. Regardless of external factors, that is unacceptable. His completion percentage fell from an excellent 66.1% in 2015 to a below average 60.4% last year. That was 24th best among qualified QBs. On paper that should definitely improve with the return of Keenan Allen. It is troubling though. Was 2016 actually the start of the decline for Rivers? I definitely have that concern. Most likely the weapons he has are too good for a major fall off in 2017 but I think that age decline may come sooner than people realize.
24.) Eli Manning
2016 PPG: 14.8 (24th)
HC/OC: Ben McAdoo / Mike Sullivan
Top Receivers: Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Shane Vereen
I see Eli Manning as an extremely similar dynasty asset to Philip Rivers. Both have pass first offenses and end up throwing more interceptions than you’d like. Eli is almost a full year older and despite actually having his top receiver around for the entire year he had a surprisingly poor fantasy season. A big reason for that is some seriously inconsistent play. Eli had single digit fantasy points four separate times last year. Rivers had zero such games.
The Giants hope the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram will help improve some of that consistency. They bring much needed size to the unit. Odell is amazing of course, but at 5’11” he just isn’t capable of the physicality that 6’5” Brandon Marshall brings to the table. I’m pretty excited to see what the pair can bring to this offense. I would still caution that Eli is Eli and you are going to get some very frustrating games out of him.
25.) Jimmy Garoppolo
2016 PPG: 17.4 - N/A (only counting his two starts, excluding any end of game appearances.)
HC/OC - Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels
Top Receivers - GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, James White, Dwayne Allen
One of the biggest wildcards among dynasty QBs, Garoppolo finally got a chance to get meaningful playing time in 2016 with Tom Brady’s suspension. To say he did not disappointment would be an understatement. In those two games he threw for 4 touchdowns to zero interceptions while completing 71.2% of his passes. Obviously when you only throw 63 passes, every stat thrown out must be taken with a grain of salt. That said, Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 3rd in ANY/A if you lower the threshold to 50 passes. That was only behind Matt Ryan and the man Garoppolo has been stuck behind, Tom Brady. I know what some of you are thinking - “Well look at all the previous Patriots backups, everybody disappointed when they left”. First of all, I actually disagree with that statement. Second, that is a lazy argument. You have to look at each player individually and Garoppolo has the skills to be a long time starter in the NFL.
As far as dynasty is concerned, I don’t think Garoppolo should be treated too differently from rookie quarterbacks. He is a bit older and we don’t know for sure when he starts. Some expect the Patriots to franchise tag Garoppolo after this season. That means he could sit TWO more seasons before becoming a starter. We have no way of knowing what team he actually ends up starting for either. Even then as much as I like him it’s not 100% he succeeds elsewhere. That keeps him below Trubisky and Mahomes even though talent wise I actually like him more. In 2QB leagues this would be a guy to monitor and if you ever catch wind of his current owner feeling a bit frustrated with Garoppolo being stuck on the bench, try and acquire him!
Tier 5
Tier 5 is where you'll find a mix of low-end vet starting QBs, a couple more top rookies that I have reservations about and a couple other younger guys that do have some upside but are probably unlikely to be long-term quality starters. In general, if you are a championship contender, you don't want any of these guys as your backup QB, that goes for 1QB or 2QB. As a rebuilder, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and acquire the younger guys. In 1QB I'd pay a late 3rd or 4th for these guys and late 2nd to 3rd in 2QB.
27.) Joe Flacco
2016 PPG: 16.0 (21st)
HC/OC: John Harbaugh / Marty Mornhinweg
Top Receivers: Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Danny Woodhead, Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams
I would say Joe Flacco is the worst starting QB that also has excellent job security (and fairly so). Outside of his amazing super bowl, Flacco has never been a great QB. He’s also not bad either. He just kind of...is. For dynasty purposes, that makes him as unexciting as it gets, but he makes for an alright reliable backup. The Ravens also haven’t really done right by Flacco. I’m not sure if that is a bold statement but the best receivers he has ever had were past-their-prime Derrick Mason and Steve Smith. Honorable mentions to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. In 2015 they did attempt to give him some weapons in Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams in rounds 1 & 2. It hasn’t worked out yet as both have dealt with injuries. In 2017 we may see the Ravens prove me wrong on that statement, but for now it is fair to say that while most other teams have prioritized giving their franchise QB a stud receiver, the Ravens have been content to sign 30-somethings to smaller deals and hope Flacco can make it work.
It’s also worth noting that a once great offensive line has really been shaken up and could be the worst of Flacco’s career. Last year PFF darling Kelechi Osemele was the first piece to fall. This year a whopping three additional starters will not return. G Vlad Ducasse will not be missed. C Jeremy Zuttah and T Ricky Wagner were both above average. Thankfully the team still has the best piece from the formerly great offensive line. G Marshal Yanda is a likely future hall-of-famer. Similarly, T Ronnie Stanley is looking like a great draft pick. The other three spots will be major question marks. It could work out but it could also get ugly. The addition of Danny Woodhead was nice but I don’t think it was enough. Flacco’s receiving corps is below average and desperately needs a Perriman or Maxx Williams breakout. I’m predicting a finish outside the top 20 for Flacco.
UPDATE: Before I could publish this article, Maclin was signed to the Ravens. He's 29 but I do find it amusing that I had written about the Ravens being content to sign 30-something veterans before the Maclin signing came about. It certainly adds a much needed upgrade to the WRs and complements the deep threat ability of Wallace. However at 29 years old and coming off a down year where he was injured, I'm not super optimistic. I will say it gives Flacco a boost in 2017, but not much for dynasty purposes.
28.) Deshaun Watson (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Bill O’Brien (BOB is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Lamar Miller
I know being so low on Deshaun Watson is not a popular sentiment in the dynasty community. He is the #1 rookie QB for many. The case against him has a few main points. First, his ball velocity is well below average and that makes it pretty hard to succeed in the NFL. Draft Analyst Benjamin Allbright (@allbrightNFL) charts certain measurements for QBs and has a minimum threshold for a successful QB in each. His minimum ball velocity is 55 MPH. Watson was charted at 49 MPH. The most successful QBs I could find per Allbright’s charts that had such a low velo were Tyrod Taylor and Mike Glennon. Taylor is a favorable comparison although he is also considerably more mobile. Watson can run but he does not have exceptional speed.
The second worrisome stat is Watson’s 7.9 yards per attempt as a senior. Trubisky, Mahomes and even DeShone Kizer all had better numbers. In fact, the differences become even greater when using adjusted yards per attempt which factors in touchdowns and interceptions - Watson was the most mistake prone passer of the top prospects. Looking at the past five drafts (2013 to 2017) I could only find two other QBs drafted in the first two rounds that had a sub 8.0 YPA. The first was Derek Carr - and with his dazzling 50 TDs to 8 ints his adjusted YPA came out well ahead of Watson. The second was Christian Hackenberg. I guess you could say the jury is still out on him but by most beat writer accounts he has looked awful in NFL practices. Also consider for a moment that Watson was the only top QB with a top prospect WR (Mike Williams). High ints, below average yards per attempt, had a top talent receiver. I just can't shake the feeling that it won't work out for Watson.
Let’s look at the positives for a moment, because there certainly are some. As mentioned above, he does have above average mobility. He rushed for 600 yards and 9 TDs in 2016. Considering that Dak Prescott has only slightly above average speed but managed to finish top ten in QB rush yards and tied for first in rush TDs, you can expect Watson to also be a top ten rushing QB if not top five. Watson also has a very talented HC/OC and some nice options in the receiving game with Hopkins and Fuller. I do worry about whether his lack of velocity is a mismatch for Fuller’s speed. Lastly with Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman the team has a good running attack which means the pressure to carry the offense won’t be all on the rookie QB. I know some Watson supporters will point out his winning ways in college as a significant factor in liking him. Watson was 28-2 the past two seasons and of course beat Alabama on the biggest stage in college football. If wins were an individual player stat, Kellen Moore and Colt McCoy would be great NFL quarterbacks. The success of Watson's team just isn't something I care to consider. On the whole I see a QB prospect that is far from ‘can’t miss’ and I won’t be owning him in any of my dynasty leagues.
29. DeShone Kizer (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku
The initial reaction for many to the Browns drafting Kizer was “welp, I’ll be avoiding that dumpster fire”. Taking a closer look though, as @Besfort2QMBL did for my blog, reveals an offense that actually has a lot of promise going forward. If you look at the top receivers you will see two 1st rounders from the past two years, a top receiving back and a sizeable contract to a vet FA. Outside of Duke Johnson, the other three were handpicked with significant investments from the new regime and I like the mix. That goes along with a surprisingly very good offensive line. This is a team that is built to allow a QB to succeed. The question is - will Kizer even be that QB?
As Besfort wrote, he actually predicts Kessler will be the starter in 2017, and we can’t ignore Brock Osweiler either. Kizer has some nice attributes with prototypical QB size at 6’4” 233 lbs and a 56 MPH ball velo. As part of a pretty bad 2016 Notre Dame team, Kizer maxed out at 2925 passing yards and 26 TDs in his two years as a starter. Those are not the kind of numbers you expect from a top NFL prospect. Kizer could have greatly benefited from one more year at college but chose to leave and has even acknowledged that he is pretty raw. I’m inclined to agree with Bes - Kessler starts this year and we have to wait a year to find out if Kizer is even fantasy viable. There is upside here for sure but I don’t believe he is worth significant investment in dynasty leagues.
30.) Paxton Lynch
2016 PPG: 9.1 (40th) 3 games, 2 starts
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker
In looking at Paxton vs Goff you must decide for yourself - is it better to believe in a QB that hasn’t really gotten a chance to prove himself and isn’t a lock to start vs a guy that failed miserably but was a #1 overall pick and is still the starter? I will take the guy that maybe has a chance to be good over the guy that was absolutely awful. Things can change but I like working with NFL data and that works against Goff here. Of course in the little we did see of Paxton Lynch, his numbers weren’t that great. Among 48 QBs with 50 pass attempts last year, Paxton ranked 41st in ANY/A. That was well ahead of dead last Goff, but behind every other rookie QB that had 50 pass attempts - that includes Cody Kessler and Jacoby Brissett. Not to mention that Paxton had two very good to great WRs to work with, albeit with a bad offensive line.
For 2017 - and again, Paxton is NOT guaranteed to be the starter. Far from it even - the Broncos made two significant improvements via the draft. They were the first team to grab an offensive lineman in the draft with Garett Bolles 20th overall. They then grabbed Carlos Henderson in the third. Henderson is a fast receiver with elite missed tackle ability. He will be a great complement to the already present duo. Paxton also has the rare combination of a strong arm (59 mph ball velo) and a very low interception rate. He threw just 4 interceptions in his senior season at Memphis and just 1 interception as a rookie in 83 attempts. That is excellent. He definitely has some traits you want from a potential franchise QB. He’s not a sure thing but I do like him.
31. Jared Goff
2016 PPG: 8.2 (42nd)
HC/OC: Sean McVay / Matt LaFleur
Top Receivers: Tavon Austin, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Kupp, Todd Gurley, Gerald Everett
In Goff we have a second year QB that had a disaster of a rookie season, no proven talent among his receivers and an offensive line that is among the worst - and the Rams opted to go for receivers instead of adding help along the line in the draft. They did sign perennial PFF top graded Tackle Andrew Whitworth, but he will be 36 by season’s end. As well as he has played, this could easily be the year he falls off, especially with the lack of talent around him.
So where is the hope? As indicated above, the Rams did spend three of their first four picks on a tight end and two WRs. The Rams attempted to bring in receivers last year as well, drafting two TEs and two WRs - but thanks to the trade up to #1 overall, they didn’t have another pick until the 4th round and none of the players drafted last year was able to make an impact. The real hope lies in first time head coach Sean McVay. At 30 years old when hired (now 31) McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history. He has just three years of experience as an OC where he helped Jay Gruden turn Kirk Cousins into a franchise QB for Washington. With Gruden having an offensive background as well, I wonder how much McVay played into Cousin’s success but the Rams were clearly sold. Joining McVay is also a first time OC in Matt LaFleur. LaFleur spent most of the past decade as one of Kyle Shanahan’s top assistants. LaFleur himself is just 37 years old so I suppose it’s worth noting that the Rams QB coach is the more experienced Greg Olson - formerly OC for Derek Carr and Blake Bortles. This trio will be giving it their all in 2017 to make Goff a franchise QB. If 2017 is a failure, I don’t see Goff getting a third year despite his #1 pick status. Goff isn’t someone I am comfortable investing in but I am certainly excited to watch him on another owner's team to see if he can be salvaged.
32. Alex Smith
2016 PPG: 15.3 (22nd)
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, Spencer Ware
Alex Smith would be in the mid-20s if not for the uncertainty that surrounds him after 2017. I do think he will remain a starter, but will it be for a good team? I can see the Rams signing him to a one or two year contract while looking for their QB of the future if Goff fails. For fantasy purposes, Alex Smith has been one of the most reliable bye week fill-ins / QB2s for the past several years. In his four seasons with KC, Smith has topped out at an interception rate of 1.6%. Among QBs with 1000+ pass attempts during that time, that INT% ranks 3rd behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Of course it comes with fewer yards and touchdowns but it still shows his elite ability to not make mistakes. Smith had another solid season in 2016 but struggled to throw touchdowns, finishing with 15 in 15 games. Travis Kelce had just 4 touchdowns on 87 receptions. That needs to change, which is why they brought in Patrick Mahomes. Maybe, just maybe, Smith can go out on a high note and deliver an increased TD% in 2017. With the talent he has around him it is very possible.
There isn’t much that can be definitively said about Smith’s future because we just don’t know where he will be. He will remain the same low int guy no matter where he goes, but if it’s to a bad team like the Rams, he will be irrelevant. Let’s look at a couple more possible team fits though. Let’s say one of the older QBs like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, or Eli Manning really falls off in 2017 and gets cut. As things stand 3rd round rookie Davis Webb is the most invested in a young backup by those teams. That is far from a guaranteed future starter. Alex Smith would be the perfect stopgap for those teams if they don’t want to go into full-on rebuild mode - and none of them are built to do so. It would be especially weird to see conservative Alex Smith with the Saints but I can envision it as a possibility. They would have to transition into a more run heavy offense but I could see a 4000 yard 25 TD season there. That’s just highlighting a few possible scenarios where Smith actually ends up relevant for another couple years and this ranking is lower than it should be. Smith is probably very cheap in dynasty right now and is a solid buy as a likely starter for a few more seasons.
33.) Cody Kessler
2016 PPG: 9.5 (39th) (Had multiple games without playing all 4 quarters)
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC & OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku
By having Kessler so closely ranked after DeShone Kizer, I think it should be clear that I don’t have total confidence in either. Kessler had some very promising moments in his rookie season but also struggled to throw for touchdowns and had trouble staying on the field. The highlights for Kessler included just two interceptions in 195 pass attempts. Among QBs with 150 or more pass attempts, that was the 5th best rate. Kessler’s best game of the season was a two point loss to the Titans where he threw for 336 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers while completing 63% of his passes. That game highlighted Kessler's big play potential as he completed passes of 20+ yards to 4 different receivers. He had two concussions last year. For a position that generally avoids concussions, seeing Kessler get two in a single season is worrisome. On the flip side the Browns massively upgraded their o-line this year, to the point that I’d confidently say they are top ten. The Browns QB should be well protected.
In addition to the o-line upgrades, Britt and Njoku will be nice additions that help ease the loss of Terrelle Pryor. Per @ScottBarrettDFB on twitter, Kessler and Britt are actually a perfect pairing with the two leading their respective position on crossing routes. Britt may not have Pryor’s size and athleticism (although at 6’3” he’s still a big target!), but I actually think he is a better fit for Kessler. That tweet by Scott also has me thinking the Browns expect Kessler to be the starter in 2017, which is something Bes alluded to in his article for my blog. I can definitely see the year playing out with Kessler being a surprise success, but I can also see Kizer starting by season's end. I’m not sure what Kessler’s price is right now but I have to imagine he is fairly cheap which would make him a good acquisition.
34.) Trevor Siemian
Age:25/26
2016 PPG: 14.3 (25th)
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker
Siemian is pretty similar to Kessler above. He has a couple extra things going against him though. He's a year older, a new coaching staff came in and he has a 1st round pick to contend with rather than a 2nd rounder. For a guy that was nearly Mr. Irrelevant in the 2015 NFL draft, his 2016 season has to be seen as a great success. For fantasy purposes he wasn't exactly a guy you wanted to start. However, his 243 yards per game and 18 touchdowns to 10 interceptions were a promising first season to build off of. He ranked 19th of 30 QBs in ANY/A (300+ pass attempts). That was ahead of guys like Jameis Winston and Cam Newton!
I personally own Siemian/Paxton duo in one league as my QB2/3 along with Trubisky. I also traded them with a 1st rounder for Tannehill in another (both 2QB leagues). As a pair I feel like they have a lot of upside given the WRs they have to work with. It's just that I have no real feel for whether either is a franchise guy and if so which one it will be. Lynch still has the long-term upper hand being a 1st rounder. Siemian showed enough in 2016 that he has value in dynasty and is worthy of finishing out my tier 5!
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