Showing posts with label dynasty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dynasty. Show all posts
Jun 13, 2020
Jul 29, 2017
Tiered Dynasty Rankings - RB Tiers 1 & 2
Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
As far as RBs specifically, the offensive line is definitely a major major factor in determining their success. Being someone that does not break down tape and evaluate offensive lines myself, I will rely on and refer to Pro Football Focus’s offensive line grades rankings here. Those rankings can be found here.
Tier 1
The top tier of running backs in dynasty consists of the three guys who have clearly set themselves apart with extremely high levels of play and consistency. That is not to say there aren’t some questions on these players - the RB position is tough and one where a guy can go from top 5 to outside the top 20 in a single season. The three players in this top tier I certainly feel very comfortable with for 2017 and I also feel pretty good about them for at least another year or two after that as well. I would put their worth at about 2.5-3 firsts.1.) Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Age: 22
2016 PPG: 20.4 (3rd)
HC/OC: Jason Garrett / Scott Linehan
PFF O-Line Rank: 9th
How refreshing is it to see a hugely hyped fantasy prospect meet and perhaps even exceed expectations? Zeke fell just six yards short of becoming the third rookie RB to hit 2000 YFS after Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James. To see him rank right behind those guys, I’d say he is in good company! Is it bold to have him in the #1 spot after just 16 career games? (he sat out the final regular season game, but I am counting his playoff appearance here) I don’t think so. Zeke has just one career game below 80 YFS - his very first game. He also has just three of sixteen games below a 4.0 YPC. He was so consistently good with a top offensive line and emerging franchise QB that he is set up for a very long run of dynasty dominance. To look at the small negatives, I think the first thing you’ll notice is that his offensive line has a worse ranking than they’ve had in recent years. The Cowboys still have the amazingly talented trio of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Travis Frederick but they did lose two starters. Ronald Leary and Doug Free were not elite talents, but both were reliable and good. Even if their replacements are just okay, Elliott should continue putting up huge numbers. He is also not the pass-catcher that David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell have proven to be. However he is still a pretty solid receiver and I think that gets overlooked a bit. I guess the other small negative is that he has proven to be a bit of a knucklehead off the field. He has had a couple very minor incidents, but not really anything that is cause for concern yet even with the talk of a short suspension to start 2017. While I like Dak Prescott a lot, this is not a team that is going to move away from their run first identity (1st in rushing attempts, 30th in passing) anytime soon. Zeke will be a workhorse and I can’t see any reason for a fall off in the next few seasons.2.) David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Age: 25/26
2016 PPG: 22.9 (2nd)
HC/OC: Bruce Arians / Harold Goodwin
PFF O-Line Rank: 17th
David Johnson is coming off of one of the greatest seasons an RB has ever had in the NFL. He became just the 10th player to ever put up a season of 2000+ YFS and 20+ touchdowns, and the first to do so since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, when it was far more common for a running back to get 300 carries (Tomlinson had 348 carries and 404 touches that year. DJ had 373 touches last year). He is also an incredible receiver. Through two seasons, DJ has totaled 116 catches at 11.5 yards per catch. For comparison, Le’Veon Bell has a career 8.8 yards per catch and Matt Forte is at 8.5. Neither has ever hit the 11.0 yards per catch that DJ had last year, the worse of his two seasons. What are the negatives for DJ? Most notably I am really worried about the decline of Carson Palmer. Palmer had a clear drop off in 2016 and if that happens again in 2017 (and at age 37 odds are pretty good) it could get ugly. Couple that with the fact that the Cardinals have no long-term solution in place at QB and this could quickly become a very bad offense. Also factoring in is an offensive line that is just okay. These factors may have already impacted David Johnson last year as both his yards per carry and yards per rec fell off in 2016. Johnson is talented enough and a good enough receiver that he should be able to maintain significant value in even the worst case scenario (think back to the John Skelton and Ryan Lindley era). A final note of concern - Johnson led the league in touches with 373 last year. There have been four other seasons with at least that many touches in the past five years. Two of those players missed at least eight games the following year, the other two played 14 and 15 games but saw their yards per carry drop a full yard+. (Adrian Peterson & Arian Foster in 2012, DeMarco Murray & Le’Veon Bell 2014). Thankfully it is a very small sample size so I wouldn't worry too much. David Johnson should have another huge season in 2017.3.) Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 25
2016 PPG: 23.1 PPG (1st)
HC/OC: Mike Tomlin / Todd Haley
PFF O-Line Rank: 3rd
You probably noticed that my top 3 dynasty players are in reverse order of their 2016 PPG finish. There is good reason for that. While Le’Veon presents the best of both worlds as a better runner than David Johnson and a better receiver than Zeke he has some warning signs that are greater than the other two. Firstly he’s had a two game suspension in 2015 and then three games in 2016. Both were minor instances involving marijuana, but it is definitely troubling. Perhaps more worrisome is his injury history. He suffered a Lisfranc sprain in preseason of his rookie year, a torn MCL/PCL in 2015 and a groin injury in the Steelers playoff game against the Patriots last year that required offseason surgery. His workload is extremely worrisome. Since coming into the league, Le’Veon Bell ranks 5th among RBs in touches with 1,135. However he has played just 47 games during that span while the 4 workhorse backs ahead of him have all played in at least 59 games. Looking at the per game stats, Le’Veon has averaged 24.1 touches per game in the NFL and no one else has averaged more than Demarco Murray’s 21.3. All the more shocking when you consider that he led the FBS with 382 carries and 404 touches in his final season at Michigan State. That is a shockingly high workload over the past five years for a guy that has suffered multiple serious injuries. Moving on from the concerns that keep Bell 3rd, he is still in the top tier for a good reason. He was comfortably the #1 back of 2016 in PPG with an astounding 157 YFS per game. That is a slightly higher full season pace than what Chris Johnson had when he set the single season record at 2509 YFS. Can he possibly keep it up? The Steelers certainly have the offense to do it. This team has a very good QB and one of the top WRs and offensive lines in the game. That combination will make things much easier for Bell than it will be for David Johnson. For 2017 alone there is a strong case that Bell is the top RB. However in dynasty his risk is clearly higher than the previous two RBs.Tier 2
This next set of running backs offers a ton of upside while also all being 25 and under - because age is king with running backs. This also includes multiple rookies. Rookie running backs tend to be more successful than other positions. You need not look further back than just last year with the dominance of Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard. But to really drive the point home, there have been 28 RBs with 1000 YFS in the past decade with seven players over 1600. At WR just 10 have eclipsed the 1000 YFS mark and none higher than Odell Beckham’s 1342 (which was done in just 12 games to make it even crazier). Running backs will likely come in and produce right away. While not all of them will have staying power (Jeremy Hill, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy for some recent examples), you should feel pretty good about the top prospects in dynasty. I would value these players at somewhere between 1.75 - 2.5 firsts.
4.) Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Age: 25
2016 PPG: 16.1 (7th)
HC/OC: Dan Quinn / Steve Sarkisian
PFF O-Line Rank: 6th
I would almost say Freeman is more in a tier 1B above the guys below him but clearly behind the top three as well. After Freeman’s rookie season with two total touchdowns and a 3.8 YPC, I was a hater. Since then he has taken two big steps forward. Yes, I said two! Despite having a slightly worse fantasy in 2016, Freeman saw marked improvement in YPC to 4.8 while also improving his yards per catch and catch percentage. He even scored touchdowns at a higher rate (he scored one less overall, but on far fewer touches thanks to Tevin Coleman’s presence). He will still have to contend with Tevin Coleman to maintain 250+ touches and the departure of offensive guru Kyle Shanahan is a little troubling, but Freeman should be able to continue his success. Much like Le’Veon Bell, Freeman has an excellent offense around him that will help make things easier. He has a top QB in Matt Ryan, a top ten offensive line, an elite WR in Julio Jones and even a very talented running back behind him which will help to keep Freeman fresh throughout the season. I do expect some regression for this offense as a whole after scoring 71 more points than the #2 team last year. That is just not likely to be sustainable. As a result Freeman will probably see a drop off going forward but there is no reason he can’t put up 13-1400 YFS with 8+ TDs for at least 2-3 more years.
5.) Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
Age: 22/23
2016 PPG: 14.3 (8th)
HC/OC: John Fox / Dowell Loggains
PFF O-Line Rank: 5th
Ezekiel Elliott got the spotlight but Howard nearly matched him as a rookie. It was Howard that had the higher yards per carry at 5.2 and still put up over 1600 YFS despite not seeing 10+ carries until the 4th game of the season. Basically the big difference between the two was Howard’s relative lack of touchdowns. This was as much a result of the offense around him as it was anything to do with Howard’s own talent. As a receiver, results were mixed. His 10.2 yards per catch on 29 receptions was well above average, but his 58% catch rate on 50 targets was well below average for a running back. With Tarik Cohen drafted in the 4th round, Howard will likely not really be a factor in the receiving game which certainly hurts his weekly floor. PFF is surprisingly very high on the Bears O-Line. Specifically, they graded the interior of the line very highly with the addition of veteran G Josh Sitton and the high play of rookie C Cody Whitehair. This should go a long way in helping Howard once again play well in 2017. Long term hopefully Mitchell Trubisky proves to be the franchise QB because the better the offense around Howard is, the better he will do. I do see some room for an Alfred Morris like trajectory in which he surprised the league with a tremendous rookie season but has had fewer YFS with each successive year and was a backup by his 4th year in the league. If the Bears don’t improve around him by 2018, Howard could definitely go the same route. However by ranking him this highly I’m banking on that not happening.
6.) Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Age: 24
2016 PPG: 17.7 (4th)
HC/OC: Anthony Lynn / Ken Whisenhunt
PFF O-Line Rank: 21st
It is thanks to these last two players that I have learned to stop judging running backs so harshly after one year. After seeing how many could be successful in year one, I became rather impatient with the position. Not anymore! Melvin Gordon has followed a near identical path as Freeman with a putrid year one. In 14 games as a rookie he had a 3.5 YPC and 0 touchdowns. In year two he was a touchdown machine, scoring 12 in 13 games. It did come with a pretty bad 3.9 YPC but the o-line certainly played a part in that. Much like Devonta Freeman, Gordon showed nice receiving ability last year with 10.2 yards per catch on 41 receptions. It is also important to note that Gordon has almost no competition for touches with the likes of Kenjon Barner, Kenneth Farrow, Branden Oliver and Andre Williams being the players vying for the backup spots. Gordon should continue to be a three down back and that volume will help him keep dynasty value.
7.) Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Age: 22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett
PFF O-Line Rank: 13th
The top RB selected in the NFL draft, Fournette will bring size and power to this run game. In truth, the Jags already were big at RB with both Ivory and Yeldon both being 6’0”+ and 220+ but Fournette’s 240 lbs is on another level. It might just be the perfect time for a top RB to join this team as well. The Jaguars finally have something of a stable line. Four starters return and C Brandon Linder in particular has been excellent. At LT they swap out inconsistent Kelvin Beachum for veteran Branden Albert. Doug Marrone’s offensive line background should also help. In the two games Marrone coached last year the team saw a significant uptick in rushing from 23.9 carries per game to 29. Granted it was a small sample size but as HC of the Bills in 2013, they led the league in rush attempts with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both at 200+ carries. The Jaguars didn’t take Fournette 4th overall to not use him. The man is going to get fed and it is clear that having a strong run game is part of Marrone’s plan to improve Bortles. Fournette should comfortably clear 200 carries and 1000 rush yards. The downside for Fournette is that he can’t really catch passes and T.J. Yeldon has shown some decent ability there so in full PPR leagues so you do have to knock him down a bit for that. In the past five seasons only six RBs had been drafted in the first round but four of them had 250+ touches and put up 1294+ yards from scrimmage in their rookie seasons. A 5th was Melvin Gordon who has already appeared on this list. Even in the worst case (save for injury), I see Fournette as a reliable workhorse and at age 22 that goes a long way in dynasty.
8.) Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 11.0 (25th)
HC/OC: Sean McVay / Matt LaFleur
PFF O-Line Rank: 18th
If you’re reading this I’m sure you don’t need me to tell you of the disappointment that was Todd Gurley’s sophomore campaign. Everyone knows that. It gets interesting when you try to pinpoint how much of the blame Gurley gets when when he had a mediocre coach and a totally inept o-line and passing game. The Rams have made some significant additions to try and change that. Most notably they brought in a very young and rather inexperienced Sean McVay to be HC. That’s not to say his resume as OC for the Redskins the past three seasons isn’t impressive. He helped turn Kirk Cousins into the potential franchise QB he is today. Alongside him is a first time OC in Matt LaFleur. LaFleur was the QB coach in Washington from 2010-13 and then the Falcons QB coach the past two seasons so he also has a promising resume, though also inexperienced. In terms of players, they added top Tackle Andrew Whitworth to the offensive line. He is 35 years old now but still had PFF’s highest pass blocking grade last year. Barring a colossal drop off, he should be a huge upgrade for both the run and pass game. The Rams did lose Kenny Britt but added several receivers in the draft to try and offset the loss. So will this all help Todd Gurley? Of course. The question is really how much it will help. After having the second lowest scoring team of the past five seasons, there is really nowhere to go but up. The Rams could have scored 100 more points last year and it would still only be good enough for 25th. That is underwhelming but would have been huge for Gurley’s numbers. I think it is a realistic achievement for the Rams in 2017. As long as they aren’t one of the worst offensive teams of the last five years again Gurley can be a very good fantasy back. To talk about Gurley himself a bit, despite coming into the NFL with a torn ACL, he hasn’t missed a single game since returning from that injury. He is a good pass catcher with 64 receptions in 29 games. That helped him stay at 1212 YFS last year despite a 3.2 YPC. With Lance Dunbar being the most notable backup RB on the team, Gurley should continue to see a ton of touches and should also see a nice improvement in efficiency. There is certainly risk here but not without major upside as well.
9.) Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Age: 21
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Ron Rivera / Mike Shula
PFF O-Line Rank: 12th
The Panthers wasted no time bringing in offensive improvements after a 2016 season that would have to be considered a disaster. McCaffrey is a significant addition to both the run game and the pass game. Cam Newton has never really had a top receiving option out of the backfield but that should change this year. McCaffrey had 99 receptions in three seasons at Stanford while also rushing 250+ times the last two seasons at a 6.0+ YPC each of those two years. There has been some debate about just how many carries McCaffrey will see in 2017 and whether Jonathan Stewart will still be significantly involved. If you play it a little safe and put him at 150 carries with a 4.4 YPC (660 yards) and 40 recs at 8.5 YPR (340) that puts him at 1000 YFS and seems easily doable. A more aggressive projection to forecast the higher end of his potential would be something like 220 carries at a 4.8 YPC (1056) with 55 recs at 9.1 YPR (500) for nearly 1600 YFS. Those numbers don’t sound ridiculous to me. McCaffrey is that talented with the combine numbers to back it up outside of a paltry bench press. The Panthers O-line was just okay last year but has some improvements for this year. Most notably, longtime C Ryan Kalil is hopefully healthy after playing just 9 games last year. T Michael Oher played just 3 games while dealing with lingering concussion symptoms. He is supposedly still dealing with those symptoms. If he can return it’s great, but at this point its looking more likely that he shouldn’t be counted on. The team signed Ryan Kalil’s younger brother Matt to a big contract. His play has been inconsistent at best but they are clearly relying on him to be a significant piece of the line. They also drafted Taylor Moton in the second round and he can play both G and T. Those additions should help McCaffrey and the offense as a whole succeed. Thanks to McCaffrey’s excellent receiving ability, he has such a high floor and I have no second thoughts about him as my #2 rookie RB or in my top ten overall RBs.
10.) Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 21
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Marvin Lewis / Ken Zampese
PFF O-Line Rank: 31st
The Bengals took Mixon 48th overall despite knowing the criticism and media pushback that would follow as a result of punching a young woman in the face and seriously injuring her. The Bengals had a clear goal to improve their running game after both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard (who also tore his ACL midseason) had a sub-4.0 YPC. Additionally their offensive line will be significantly worse in 2017 with the departures of Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. They did not bring in any significant pieces via FA or draft, signing Andre Smith and hoping former 2nd rounder Jake Fisher can step up. They would need an elite talent at RB to make up for this major downgrade at OL and they may have it in Joe Mixon. Although never being a true starter with Samaje Perine around, Mixon had some pretty eye popping numbers in just two seasons at Oklahoma. Mixon had over 1800 YFS and 15 TDs on just 224 touches last year. Highlights included 377 YFS and 5 TDs against Texas Tech and 180 YFS and 2 TD in the Sugar Bowl vs Auburn, completely outshining Perine (86 yards, 1 TD). The talent is very very real. How much you want to penalize Mixon for his assault charge is up to each individual. While a truly heinous act, I’m not sure it has much of a predictive nature for future risk. As a result I have kept him in top ten RBs and I have chosen to focus on his talent. For fantasy purposes, the real question is whether he can overcome a bad offensive line that has the chance to be downright awful. He is a pretty good receiver but I’m not sure they use him in that role if Giovani Bernard returns fully healthy. That would be a shame but it’s definitely something the Bengals would do. Best-case scenario is that Mixon proves to be so talented that Marvin Lewis has no choice but to utilize him as a three down back and he plays at a star level. On the flip side Mixon’s floor is far lower than Fournette and McCaffrey thanks to stronger competition and a worse o-line. However bad Jeremy Hill may be, he has been very successful at the goal line with 30 touchdowns over three seasons. If Hill vultures touchdowns and Giovani Bernard is the main receiving back, Mixon’s rookie numbers will be very underwhelming. Bernard already has a contract extension in place, but Jeremy Hill is most likely gone after 2017 so that is a positive. I think Mixon is too talented and a possibly disappointing 2017 could be followed by a very nice 2018 and beyond.Jun 17, 2017
Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tiers 4 & 5
Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'
Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
Tier 4 is where you will find my top rookie quarterbacks. In general I am pretty conservative with rookie QBs. It’s such a hard position to judge. So many factors in the offensive situation - coaching, o-line and receivers - are huge to the development of a QB. I have no problems telling you I am much more comfortable ranking QBs that have NFL stats. Of those without, I’ll rely heavily on how much draft capital was invested in them and the offense they will have to work with. Players in this range are worth a late 2nd to 3rd rounder in 1QB and a late 1st - early 2nd in 2QB. In 2QB these guys are still starters and guys that you grab hoping they will start in the future so they are pretty important in those leagues especially!
Age: 23
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: John Fox / Dowell Loggains
Top Receivers: Cameron Meredith, Kevin White, Jordan Howard, Adam Shaheen
Trubisky was the first QB drafted and he is my top rookie QB as well, though that does not seem to be the consensus among dynasty experts. According to FantasyPros dynasty rankings, Trubisky is the 3rd ranked rookie. With just one year as a starter in college he is absolutely a risk. He has the tools though and his numbers in that one year were very nice. He had a 68% completion rate with 30 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. He also managed to do that without any top prospect receivers or running backs supporting him.
I also think the Bears offense is not the dumpster fire many perceive it to be. For starters they have a well above average interior offensive line. G Josh Sitton came over from division rival Packers and continued to play at a very high level. Rookie Center Cody Whitehair was a great surprise. He ranked as the 6th best C per PFF. Former 1st rounder Kyle Long has been an above average player throughout his career with the Bears. Those three coupled with Jordan Howard will really make things easier for Trubisky whenever he does end up starting.
As far as Trubisky’s receivers go, Cameron Meredith showed big potential in his first year as a starter in 2016. If Kevin White can actually stay healthy that is not a terrible duo by any means. Very inexperienced, but not terrible. Throw in rookies Adam Shaheen at TE and 3rd down back Tarik Cohen as well. The Bears also signed a trio of veteran WRs - Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton and Victor Cruz - to give some experience. The passing game will surely have it’s ups and downs in 2017 but I expect Trubisky to start mid season by the latest and flash enough talent to be worthy of this ranking.
Age: 21/22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Spencer Ware, Chris Conley
The big arm of Mahomes and Andy Reid are a near-perfect pairing as far as I am concerned. If not for an expected season on the bench (and hey, anything is possible - to assume with total confidence that Mahomes will not play this year is a mistake) he might be ahead of Trubisky. He has very nice though unconventional weapons. Travis Kelce is the clear top receiver coming off an elite season for a TE. With the release of Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the WR1. His elite speed and playmaking ability make his potential with Mahomes very exciting. After those two Spencer Ware had a tremendous season as a receiver. His 13.55 yards per catch was 2nd best among all RBs last year (min 30 recs), a fraction behind Tevin Coleman but ahead of excellent receivers David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. In fact Coleman and Ware’s season ranked as the best two yards per catch of an RB over the last five years. After that trio, Chris Conley and Jehu Chesson are both superior athletes that bring size (6’2” and 6’3”) and speed (both sub 4.50 in the 40 yard). Once again good fits with Mahomes as well as complementary pieces to the diminutive Tyreek Hill.
Beyond the receivers, looking at the offense itself Andy Reid has a long history of adapting his scheme to the personnel he has around him. Just look at his time with Brett Favre in Green Bay, Donovan McNabb in Philly and Alex Smith in KC. All different but successful offenses. I am extremely confident the Chiefs will become a more aggressive down the field offense under Mahomes. Matt Nagy was co-offensive coordinator with Brad Childress last year, so this will be his first season as sole OC. He’s been with Andy Reid dating back to his time in Philly and I don’t have any worries about his coaching ability knowing he will be working closely with Reid. Depending on how much you value being able to evaluate a QB in 2017 vs waiting a year you could swap Mahomes and Trubisky. For the position I am least confident in I do value getting some NFL production right away which keeps Trubisky ahead.
Age: 28
2016 PPG: 18.3 (8th)
HC/OC: Sean McDermott / Rick Dennison
Top Receivers: Sammy Watkins, Zay Jones, LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay
Tyrod is 28 years old and coming off back-to-back top ten seasons despite a subpar offense. To have him this low will surely be shocking to some. If you look back to the precursor section you will see how I mention situation stability as a primary factor I consider. That is my big issue with Tyrod Taylor. The Bills have never treated him like a Franchise QB. He is currently on a two year deal but has an 18 million dollar cap hit for 2018. If the new Bills regime isn’t 100% sold on Taylor, there is a good chance he is gone after 2017. Also keep in mind this team has two ‘18 1st rounders if they want to grab a QB next year. If Taylor were cut, who knows where he lands next or even if he is starts? He probably does but you never know.
For 2017 here is what he have: A QB that as a passer has thrown for 37 TDs to just 12 INTs over the past two seasons. His real fantasy value comes as a runner where he used his 4.51 speed to finish second in rushing yards in 2015 and first by over 100 yards in 2016. Coupling that with his decent low-int ability as a passer and you have a very high floor fantasy QB. Unfortunately this skillset is not as valued in the NFL. Grabbing Tyrod could be a fairly low-risk move with a chance for a big payoff in dynasty.
Age: 29/30
2016 PPG: 14.8 (25th)
HC/OC: Mike Zimmer / Pat Shurmur
Top Receivers: Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook
Bradford is an extremely interesting QB to me. @Rekedfantasy explained some of that in this piece on the blog. Bradford set the all-time record in completion percentage at 71.6%. This came with little fanfare in part thanks to a disappointing season for the Vikings as well as an anemic 9.81 yards per completion. For comparison, this was below Brock Osweiler (9.82). It is a fair criticism to say Bradford dink and dunked his way to the completion percentage record.
There is however, an x-factor in this equation. On November 2nd of last year, Vikings OC Norv Turner resigned and Pat Shurmur replaced him. Shurmur has a long history with Bradford. He was the OC during Bradford’s rookie season with the Rams. He was then the OC when Bradford went to the Eagles and briefly his HC at the end of their time with Philly. For 2016, Shurmur landed with the Vikings. When Teddy Bridgewater went down with a severe knee injury, Shurmur was instrumental in convincing the team to make a play for Bradford. From Week 9 onward, Bradford did see an improvement in his numbers to 15.5 PPG. Over the final 4 games of the season the Shurmur/Bradford combo really hit it’s stride. He finally shed his dink and dunk status, raising his yards per completion to a more respectable 10.6. He was also the 7th best QB in PPG during that span! This was highlighted by a 382 yard 3 TD performance in a loss at Green Bay. Currently Teddy Bridgewater is not expected to play in 2017 and I have serious doubts about his future with the Vikings entirely.
Bradford still has a big injury history to consider. Thanks to that and a decent but not great 2016 campaign, he can be had at an extremely reasonable price. I see a surprising amount of upside here and would be very comfortable with Bradford as my QB2 in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
Age: 35/36
2016 PPG: 17.2 (15th)
HC/OC: Anthony Lynn / Ken Whisenhunt
Top Receivers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams, Melvin Gordon
Rivers is a clear step below the older QBs in my 3rd tier. His PPG in 2016 was not great and he now has a new HC which can possibly help or hurt. The return of Ken Whisenhunt, Rivers’ OC for a highly productive 2013 season, is a promising indicator. Looking at the offense I do see major upside. A healthy season of Keenan Allen, progression from Hunter Henry and the addition of Mike Williams taken 7th overall? That is enough talent for an outside shot at a top 5 finish if all breaks right.
Outside of age, there are other factors at play in this ranking. Rivers has led the league in interceptions two of the past three years. Regardless of external factors, that is unacceptable. His completion percentage fell from an excellent 66.1% in 2015 to a below average 60.4% last year. That was 24th best among qualified QBs. On paper that should definitely improve with the return of Keenan Allen. It is troubling though. Was 2016 actually the start of the decline for Rivers? I definitely have that concern. Most likely the weapons he has are too good for a major fall off in 2017 but I think that age decline may come sooner than people realize.
Age: 36
2016 PPG: 14.8 (24th)
HC/OC: Ben McAdoo / Mike Sullivan
Top Receivers: Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Shane Vereen
I see Eli Manning as an extremely similar dynasty asset to Philip Rivers. Both have pass first offenses and end up throwing more interceptions than you’d like. Eli is almost a full year older and despite actually having his top receiver around for the entire year he had a surprisingly poor fantasy season. A big reason for that is some seriously inconsistent play. Eli had single digit fantasy points four separate times last year. Rivers had zero such games.
The Giants hope the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram will help improve some of that consistency. They bring much needed size to the unit. Odell is amazing of course, but at 5’11” he just isn’t capable of the physicality that 6’5” Brandon Marshall brings to the table. I’m pretty excited to see what the pair can bring to this offense. I would still caution that Eli is Eli and you are going to get some very frustrating games out of him.
Age: 25/26
2016 PPG: 17.4 - N/A (only counting his two starts, excluding any end of game appearances.)
HC/OC - Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels
Top Receivers - GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, James White, Dwayne Allen
One of the biggest wildcards among dynasty QBs, Garoppolo finally got a chance to get meaningful playing time in 2016 with Tom Brady’s suspension. To say he did not disappointment would be an understatement. In those two games he threw for 4 touchdowns to zero interceptions while completing 71.2% of his passes. Obviously when you only throw 63 passes, every stat thrown out must be taken with a grain of salt. That said, Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 3rd in ANY/A if you lower the threshold to 50 passes. That was only behind Matt Ryan and the man Garoppolo has been stuck behind, Tom Brady. I know what some of you are thinking - “Well look at all the previous Patriots backups, everybody disappointed when they left”. First of all, I actually disagree with that statement. Second, that is a lazy argument. You have to look at each player individually and Garoppolo has the skills to be a long time starter in the NFL.
As far as dynasty is concerned, I don’t think Garoppolo should be treated too differently from rookie quarterbacks. He is a bit older and we don’t know for sure when he starts. Some expect the Patriots to franchise tag Garoppolo after this season. That means he could sit TWO more seasons before becoming a starter. We have no way of knowing what team he actually ends up starting for either. Even then as much as I like him it’s not 100% he succeeds elsewhere. That keeps him below Trubisky and Mahomes even though talent wise I actually like him more. In 2QB leagues this would be a guy to monitor and if you ever catch wind of his current owner feeling a bit frustrated with Garoppolo being stuck on the bench, try and acquire him!
Tier 5 is where you'll find a mix of low-end vet starting QBs, a couple more top rookies that I have reservations about and a couple other younger guys that do have some upside but are probably unlikely to be long-term quality starters. In general, if you are a championship contender, you don't want any of these guys as your backup QB, that goes for 1QB or 2QB. As a rebuilder, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and acquire the younger guys. In 1QB I'd pay a late 3rd or 4th for these guys and late 2nd to 3rd in 2QB.
Age: 32
2016 PPG: 16.0 (21st)
HC/OC: John Harbaugh / Marty Mornhinweg
Top Receivers: Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Danny Woodhead, Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams
I would say Joe Flacco is the worst starting QB that also has excellent job security (and fairly so). Outside of his amazing super bowl, Flacco has never been a great QB. He’s also not bad either. He just kind of...is. For dynasty purposes, that makes him as unexciting as it gets, but he makes for an alright reliable backup. The Ravens also haven’t really done right by Flacco. I’m not sure if that is a bold statement but the best receivers he has ever had were past-their-prime Derrick Mason and Steve Smith. Honorable mentions to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. In 2015 they did attempt to give him some weapons in Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams in rounds 1 & 2. It hasn’t worked out yet as both have dealt with injuries. In 2017 we may see the Ravens prove me wrong on that statement, but for now it is fair to say that while most other teams have prioritized giving their franchise QB a stud receiver, the Ravens have been content to sign 30-somethings to smaller deals and hope Flacco can make it work.
It’s also worth noting that a once great offensive line has really been shaken up and could be the worst of Flacco’s career. Last year PFF darling Kelechi Osemele was the first piece to fall. This year a whopping three additional starters will not return. G Vlad Ducasse will not be missed. C Jeremy Zuttah and T Ricky Wagner were both above average. Thankfully the team still has the best piece from the formerly great offensive line. G Marshal Yanda is a likely future hall-of-famer. Similarly, T Ronnie Stanley is looking like a great draft pick. The other three spots will be major question marks. It could work out but it could also get ugly. The addition of Danny Woodhead was nice but I don’t think it was enough. Flacco’s receiving corps is below average and desperately needs a Perriman or Maxx Williams breakout. I’m predicting a finish outside the top 20 for Flacco.
UPDATE: Before I could publish this article, Maclin was signed to the Ravens. He's 29 but I do find it amusing that I had written about the Ravens being content to sign 30-something veterans before the Maclin signing came about. It certainly adds a much needed upgrade to the WRs and complements the deep threat ability of Wallace. However at 29 years old and coming off a down year where he was injured, I'm not super optimistic. I will say it gives Flacco a boost in 2017, but not much for dynasty purposes.
Age: 21/22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Bill O’Brien (BOB is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Lamar Miller
I know being so low on Deshaun Watson is not a popular sentiment in the dynasty community. He is the #1 rookie QB for many. The case against him has a few main points. First, his ball velocity is well below average and that makes it pretty hard to succeed in the NFL. Draft Analyst Benjamin Allbright (@allbrightNFL) charts certain measurements for QBs and has a minimum threshold for a successful QB in each. His minimum ball velocity is 55 MPH. Watson was charted at 49 MPH. The most successful QBs I could find per Allbright’s charts that had such a low velo were Tyrod Taylor and Mike Glennon. Taylor is a favorable comparison although he is also considerably more mobile. Watson can run but he does not have exceptional speed.
The second worrisome stat is Watson’s 7.9 yards per attempt as a senior. Trubisky, Mahomes and even DeShone Kizer all had better numbers. In fact, the differences become even greater when using adjusted yards per attempt which factors in touchdowns and interceptions - Watson was the most mistake prone passer of the top prospects. Looking at the past five drafts (2013 to 2017) I could only find two other QBs drafted in the first two rounds that had a sub 8.0 YPA. The first was Derek Carr - and with his dazzling 50 TDs to 8 ints his adjusted YPA came out well ahead of Watson. The second was Christian Hackenberg. I guess you could say the jury is still out on him but by most beat writer accounts he has looked awful in NFL practices. Also consider for a moment that Watson was the only top QB with a top prospect WR (Mike Williams). High ints, below average yards per attempt, had a top talent receiver. I just can't shake the feeling that it won't work out for Watson.
Let’s look at the positives for a moment, because there certainly are some. As mentioned above, he does have above average mobility. He rushed for 600 yards and 9 TDs in 2016. Considering that Dak Prescott has only slightly above average speed but managed to finish top ten in QB rush yards and tied for first in rush TDs, you can expect Watson to also be a top ten rushing QB if not top five. Watson also has a very talented HC/OC and some nice options in the receiving game with Hopkins and Fuller. I do worry about whether his lack of velocity is a mismatch for Fuller’s speed. Lastly with Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman the team has a good running attack which means the pressure to carry the offense won’t be all on the rookie QB. I know some Watson supporters will point out his winning ways in college as a significant factor in liking him. Watson was 28-2 the past two seasons and of course beat Alabama on the biggest stage in college football. If wins were an individual player stat, Kellen Moore and Colt McCoy would be great NFL quarterbacks. The success of Watson's team just isn't something I care to consider. On the whole I see a QB prospect that is far from ‘can’t miss’ and I won’t be owning him in any of my dynasty leagues.
Age: 21
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku
The initial reaction for many to the Browns drafting Kizer was “welp, I’ll be avoiding that dumpster fire”. Taking a closer look though, as @Besfort2QMBL did for my blog, reveals an offense that actually has a lot of promise going forward. If you look at the top receivers you will see two 1st rounders from the past two years, a top receiving back and a sizeable contract to a vet FA. Outside of Duke Johnson, the other three were handpicked with significant investments from the new regime and I like the mix. That goes along with a surprisingly very good offensive line. This is a team that is built to allow a QB to succeed. The question is - will Kizer even be that QB?
As Besfort wrote, he actually predicts Kessler will be the starter in 2017, and we can’t ignore Brock Osweiler either. Kizer has some nice attributes with prototypical QB size at 6’4” 233 lbs and a 56 MPH ball velo. As part of a pretty bad 2016 Notre Dame team, Kizer maxed out at 2925 passing yards and 26 TDs in his two years as a starter. Those are not the kind of numbers you expect from a top NFL prospect. Kizer could have greatly benefited from one more year at college but chose to leave and has even acknowledged that he is pretty raw. I’m inclined to agree with Bes - Kessler starts this year and we have to wait a year to find out if Kizer is even fantasy viable. There is upside here for sure but I don’t believe he is worth significant investment in dynasty leagues.
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 9.1 (40th) 3 games, 2 starts
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker
In looking at Paxton vs Goff you must decide for yourself - is it better to believe in a QB that hasn’t really gotten a chance to prove himself and isn’t a lock to start vs a guy that failed miserably but was a #1 overall pick and is still the starter? I will take the guy that maybe has a chance to be good over the guy that was absolutely awful. Things can change but I like working with NFL data and that works against Goff here. Of course in the little we did see of Paxton Lynch, his numbers weren’t that great. Among 48 QBs with 50 pass attempts last year, Paxton ranked 41st in ANY/A. That was well ahead of dead last Goff, but behind every other rookie QB that had 50 pass attempts - that includes Cody Kessler and Jacoby Brissett. Not to mention that Paxton had two very good to great WRs to work with, albeit with a bad offensive line.
For 2017 - and again, Paxton is NOT guaranteed to be the starter. Far from it even - the Broncos made two significant improvements via the draft. They were the first team to grab an offensive lineman in the draft with Garett Bolles 20th overall. They then grabbed Carlos Henderson in the third. Henderson is a fast receiver with elite missed tackle ability. He will be a great complement to the already present duo. Paxton also has the rare combination of a strong arm (59 mph ball velo) and a very low interception rate. He threw just 4 interceptions in his senior season at Memphis and just 1 interception as a rookie in 83 attempts. That is excellent. He definitely has some traits you want from a potential franchise QB. He’s not a sure thing but I do like him.
Age: 22/23
2016 PPG: 8.2 (42nd)
HC/OC: Sean McVay / Matt LaFleur
Top Receivers: Tavon Austin, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Kupp, Todd Gurley, Gerald Everett
In Goff we have a second year QB that had a disaster of a rookie season, no proven talent among his receivers and an offensive line that is among the worst - and the Rams opted to go for receivers instead of adding help along the line in the draft. They did sign perennial PFF top graded Tackle Andrew Whitworth, but he will be 36 by season’s end. As well as he has played, this could easily be the year he falls off, especially with the lack of talent around him.
So where is the hope? As indicated above, the Rams did spend three of their first four picks on a tight end and two WRs. The Rams attempted to bring in receivers last year as well, drafting two TEs and two WRs - but thanks to the trade up to #1 overall, they didn’t have another pick until the 4th round and none of the players drafted last year was able to make an impact. The real hope lies in first time head coach Sean McVay. At 30 years old when hired (now 31) McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history. He has just three years of experience as an OC where he helped Jay Gruden turn Kirk Cousins into a franchise QB for Washington. With Gruden having an offensive background as well, I wonder how much McVay played into Cousin’s success but the Rams were clearly sold. Joining McVay is also a first time OC in Matt LaFleur. LaFleur spent most of the past decade as one of Kyle Shanahan’s top assistants. LaFleur himself is just 37 years old so I suppose it’s worth noting that the Rams QB coach is the more experienced Greg Olson - formerly OC for Derek Carr and Blake Bortles. This trio will be giving it their all in 2017 to make Goff a franchise QB. If 2017 is a failure, I don’t see Goff getting a third year despite his #1 pick status. Goff isn’t someone I am comfortable investing in but I am certainly excited to watch him on another owner's team to see if he can be salvaged.
Age: 33
2016 PPG: 15.3 (22nd)
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, Spencer Ware
Alex Smith would be in the mid-20s if not for the uncertainty that surrounds him after 2017. I do think he will remain a starter, but will it be for a good team? I can see the Rams signing him to a one or two year contract while looking for their QB of the future if Goff fails. For fantasy purposes, Alex Smith has been one of the most reliable bye week fill-ins / QB2s for the past several years. In his four seasons with KC, Smith has topped out at an interception rate of 1.6%. Among QBs with 1000+ pass attempts during that time, that INT% ranks 3rd behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Of course it comes with fewer yards and touchdowns but it still shows his elite ability to not make mistakes. Smith had another solid season in 2016 but struggled to throw touchdowns, finishing with 15 in 15 games. Travis Kelce had just 4 touchdowns on 87 receptions. That needs to change, which is why they brought in Patrick Mahomes. Maybe, just maybe, Smith can go out on a high note and deliver an increased TD% in 2017. With the talent he has around him it is very possible.
There isn’t much that can be definitively said about Smith’s future because we just don’t know where he will be. He will remain the same low int guy no matter where he goes, but if it’s to a bad team like the Rams, he will be irrelevant. Let’s look at a couple more possible team fits though. Let’s say one of the older QBs like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, or Eli Manning really falls off in 2017 and gets cut. As things stand 3rd round rookie Davis Webb is the most invested in a young backup by those teams. That is far from a guaranteed future starter. Alex Smith would be the perfect stopgap for those teams if they don’t want to go into full-on rebuild mode - and none of them are built to do so. It would be especially weird to see conservative Alex Smith with the Saints but I can envision it as a possibility. They would have to transition into a more run heavy offense but I could see a 4000 yard 25 TD season there. That’s just highlighting a few possible scenarios where Smith actually ends up relevant for another couple years and this ranking is lower than it should be. Smith is probably very cheap in dynasty right now and is a solid buy as a likely starter for a few more seasons.
Age: 24
2016 PPG: 9.5 (39th) (Had multiple games without playing all 4 quarters)
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC & OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku
By having Kessler so closely ranked after DeShone Kizer, I think it should be clear that I don’t have total confidence in either. Kessler had some very promising moments in his rookie season but also struggled to throw for touchdowns and had trouble staying on the field. The highlights for Kessler included just two interceptions in 195 pass attempts. Among QBs with 150 or more pass attempts, that was the 5th best rate. Kessler’s best game of the season was a two point loss to the Titans where he threw for 336 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers while completing 63% of his passes. That game highlighted Kessler's big play potential as he completed passes of 20+ yards to 4 different receivers. He had two concussions last year. For a position that generally avoids concussions, seeing Kessler get two in a single season is worrisome. On the flip side the Browns massively upgraded their o-line this year, to the point that I’d confidently say they are top ten. The Browns QB should be well protected.
In addition to the o-line upgrades, Britt and Njoku will be nice additions that help ease the loss of Terrelle Pryor. Per @ScottBarrettDFB on twitter, Kessler and Britt are actually a perfect pairing with the two leading their respective position on crossing routes. Britt may not have Pryor’s size and athleticism (although at 6’3” he’s still a big target!), but I actually think he is a better fit for Kessler. That tweet by Scott also has me thinking the Browns expect Kessler to be the starter in 2017, which is something Bes alluded to in his article for my blog. I can definitely see the year playing out with Kessler being a surprise success, but I can also see Kizer starting by season's end. I’m not sure what Kessler’s price is right now but I have to imagine he is fairly cheap which would make him a good acquisition.
Age:25/26
2016 PPG: 14.3 (25th)
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker
Siemian is pretty similar to Kessler above. He has a couple extra things going against him though. He's a year older, a new coaching staff came in and he has a 1st round pick to contend with rather than a 2nd rounder. For a guy that was nearly Mr. Irrelevant in the 2015 NFL draft, his 2016 season has to be seen as a great success. For fantasy purposes he wasn't exactly a guy you wanted to start. However, his 243 yards per game and 18 touchdowns to 10 interceptions were a promising first season to build off of. He ranked 19th of 30 QBs in ANY/A (300+ pass attempts). That was ahead of guys like Jameis Winston and Cam Newton!
I personally own Siemian/Paxton duo in one league as my QB2/3 along with Trubisky. I also traded them with a 1st rounder for Tannehill in another (both 2QB leagues). As a pair I feel like they have a lot of upside given the WRs they have to work with. It's just that I have no real feel for whether either is a franchise guy and if so which one it will be. Lynch still has the long-term upper hand being a 1st rounder. Siemian showed enough in 2016 that he has value in dynasty and is worthy of finishing out my tier 5!
Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
Tier 4
Tier 4 is where you will find my top rookie quarterbacks. In general I am pretty conservative with rookie QBs. It’s such a hard position to judge. So many factors in the offensive situation - coaching, o-line and receivers - are huge to the development of a QB. I have no problems telling you I am much more comfortable ranking QBs that have NFL stats. Of those without, I’ll rely heavily on how much draft capital was invested in them and the offense they will have to work with. Players in this range are worth a late 2nd to 3rd rounder in 1QB and a late 1st - early 2nd in 2QB. In 2QB these guys are still starters and guys that you grab hoping they will start in the future so they are pretty important in those leagues especially!
19.) Mitchell Trubisky (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: John Fox / Dowell Loggains
Top Receivers: Cameron Meredith, Kevin White, Jordan Howard, Adam Shaheen
Trubisky was the first QB drafted and he is my top rookie QB as well, though that does not seem to be the consensus among dynasty experts. According to FantasyPros dynasty rankings, Trubisky is the 3rd ranked rookie. With just one year as a starter in college he is absolutely a risk. He has the tools though and his numbers in that one year were very nice. He had a 68% completion rate with 30 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. He also managed to do that without any top prospect receivers or running backs supporting him.
I also think the Bears offense is not the dumpster fire many perceive it to be. For starters they have a well above average interior offensive line. G Josh Sitton came over from division rival Packers and continued to play at a very high level. Rookie Center Cody Whitehair was a great surprise. He ranked as the 6th best C per PFF. Former 1st rounder Kyle Long has been an above average player throughout his career with the Bears. Those three coupled with Jordan Howard will really make things easier for Trubisky whenever he does end up starting.
As far as Trubisky’s receivers go, Cameron Meredith showed big potential in his first year as a starter in 2016. If Kevin White can actually stay healthy that is not a terrible duo by any means. Very inexperienced, but not terrible. Throw in rookies Adam Shaheen at TE and 3rd down back Tarik Cohen as well. The Bears also signed a trio of veteran WRs - Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton and Victor Cruz - to give some experience. The passing game will surely have it’s ups and downs in 2017 but I expect Trubisky to start mid season by the latest and flash enough talent to be worthy of this ranking.
20.) Patrick Mahomes II (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Spencer Ware, Chris Conley
The big arm of Mahomes and Andy Reid are a near-perfect pairing as far as I am concerned. If not for an expected season on the bench (and hey, anything is possible - to assume with total confidence that Mahomes will not play this year is a mistake) he might be ahead of Trubisky. He has very nice though unconventional weapons. Travis Kelce is the clear top receiver coming off an elite season for a TE. With the release of Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the WR1. His elite speed and playmaking ability make his potential with Mahomes very exciting. After those two Spencer Ware had a tremendous season as a receiver. His 13.55 yards per catch was 2nd best among all RBs last year (min 30 recs), a fraction behind Tevin Coleman but ahead of excellent receivers David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. In fact Coleman and Ware’s season ranked as the best two yards per catch of an RB over the last five years. After that trio, Chris Conley and Jehu Chesson are both superior athletes that bring size (6’2” and 6’3”) and speed (both sub 4.50 in the 40 yard). Once again good fits with Mahomes as well as complementary pieces to the diminutive Tyreek Hill.
Beyond the receivers, looking at the offense itself Andy Reid has a long history of adapting his scheme to the personnel he has around him. Just look at his time with Brett Favre in Green Bay, Donovan McNabb in Philly and Alex Smith in KC. All different but successful offenses. I am extremely confident the Chiefs will become a more aggressive down the field offense under Mahomes. Matt Nagy was co-offensive coordinator with Brad Childress last year, so this will be his first season as sole OC. He’s been with Andy Reid dating back to his time in Philly and I don’t have any worries about his coaching ability knowing he will be working closely with Reid. Depending on how much you value being able to evaluate a QB in 2017 vs waiting a year you could swap Mahomes and Trubisky. For the position I am least confident in I do value getting some NFL production right away which keeps Trubisky ahead.
21.) Tyrod Taylor
2016 PPG: 18.3 (8th)
HC/OC: Sean McDermott / Rick Dennison
Top Receivers: Sammy Watkins, Zay Jones, LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay
Tyrod is 28 years old and coming off back-to-back top ten seasons despite a subpar offense. To have him this low will surely be shocking to some. If you look back to the precursor section you will see how I mention situation stability as a primary factor I consider. That is my big issue with Tyrod Taylor. The Bills have never treated him like a Franchise QB. He is currently on a two year deal but has an 18 million dollar cap hit for 2018. If the new Bills regime isn’t 100% sold on Taylor, there is a good chance he is gone after 2017. Also keep in mind this team has two ‘18 1st rounders if they want to grab a QB next year. If Taylor were cut, who knows where he lands next or even if he is starts? He probably does but you never know.
For 2017 here is what he have: A QB that as a passer has thrown for 37 TDs to just 12 INTs over the past two seasons. His real fantasy value comes as a runner where he used his 4.51 speed to finish second in rushing yards in 2015 and first by over 100 yards in 2016. Coupling that with his decent low-int ability as a passer and you have a very high floor fantasy QB. Unfortunately this skillset is not as valued in the NFL. Grabbing Tyrod could be a fairly low-risk move with a chance for a big payoff in dynasty.
22.) Sam Bradford
2016 PPG: 14.8 (25th)
HC/OC: Mike Zimmer / Pat Shurmur
Top Receivers: Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook
Bradford is an extremely interesting QB to me. @Rekedfantasy explained some of that in this piece on the blog. Bradford set the all-time record in completion percentage at 71.6%. This came with little fanfare in part thanks to a disappointing season for the Vikings as well as an anemic 9.81 yards per completion. For comparison, this was below Brock Osweiler (9.82). It is a fair criticism to say Bradford dink and dunked his way to the completion percentage record.
There is however, an x-factor in this equation. On November 2nd of last year, Vikings OC Norv Turner resigned and Pat Shurmur replaced him. Shurmur has a long history with Bradford. He was the OC during Bradford’s rookie season with the Rams. He was then the OC when Bradford went to the Eagles and briefly his HC at the end of their time with Philly. For 2016, Shurmur landed with the Vikings. When Teddy Bridgewater went down with a severe knee injury, Shurmur was instrumental in convincing the team to make a play for Bradford. From Week 9 onward, Bradford did see an improvement in his numbers to 15.5 PPG. Over the final 4 games of the season the Shurmur/Bradford combo really hit it’s stride. He finally shed his dink and dunk status, raising his yards per completion to a more respectable 10.6. He was also the 7th best QB in PPG during that span! This was highlighted by a 382 yard 3 TD performance in a loss at Green Bay. Currently Teddy Bridgewater is not expected to play in 2017 and I have serious doubts about his future with the Vikings entirely.
Bradford still has a big injury history to consider. Thanks to that and a decent but not great 2016 campaign, he can be had at an extremely reasonable price. I see a surprising amount of upside here and would be very comfortable with Bradford as my QB2 in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
23.) Philip Rivers
2016 PPG: 17.2 (15th)
HC/OC: Anthony Lynn / Ken Whisenhunt
Top Receivers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams, Melvin Gordon
Rivers is a clear step below the older QBs in my 3rd tier. His PPG in 2016 was not great and he now has a new HC which can possibly help or hurt. The return of Ken Whisenhunt, Rivers’ OC for a highly productive 2013 season, is a promising indicator. Looking at the offense I do see major upside. A healthy season of Keenan Allen, progression from Hunter Henry and the addition of Mike Williams taken 7th overall? That is enough talent for an outside shot at a top 5 finish if all breaks right.
Outside of age, there are other factors at play in this ranking. Rivers has led the league in interceptions two of the past three years. Regardless of external factors, that is unacceptable. His completion percentage fell from an excellent 66.1% in 2015 to a below average 60.4% last year. That was 24th best among qualified QBs. On paper that should definitely improve with the return of Keenan Allen. It is troubling though. Was 2016 actually the start of the decline for Rivers? I definitely have that concern. Most likely the weapons he has are too good for a major fall off in 2017 but I think that age decline may come sooner than people realize.
24.) Eli Manning
2016 PPG: 14.8 (24th)
HC/OC: Ben McAdoo / Mike Sullivan
Top Receivers: Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Shane Vereen
I see Eli Manning as an extremely similar dynasty asset to Philip Rivers. Both have pass first offenses and end up throwing more interceptions than you’d like. Eli is almost a full year older and despite actually having his top receiver around for the entire year he had a surprisingly poor fantasy season. A big reason for that is some seriously inconsistent play. Eli had single digit fantasy points four separate times last year. Rivers had zero such games.
The Giants hope the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram will help improve some of that consistency. They bring much needed size to the unit. Odell is amazing of course, but at 5’11” he just isn’t capable of the physicality that 6’5” Brandon Marshall brings to the table. I’m pretty excited to see what the pair can bring to this offense. I would still caution that Eli is Eli and you are going to get some very frustrating games out of him.
25.) Jimmy Garoppolo
2016 PPG: 17.4 - N/A (only counting his two starts, excluding any end of game appearances.)
HC/OC - Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels
Top Receivers - GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, James White, Dwayne Allen
One of the biggest wildcards among dynasty QBs, Garoppolo finally got a chance to get meaningful playing time in 2016 with Tom Brady’s suspension. To say he did not disappointment would be an understatement. In those two games he threw for 4 touchdowns to zero interceptions while completing 71.2% of his passes. Obviously when you only throw 63 passes, every stat thrown out must be taken with a grain of salt. That said, Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 3rd in ANY/A if you lower the threshold to 50 passes. That was only behind Matt Ryan and the man Garoppolo has been stuck behind, Tom Brady. I know what some of you are thinking - “Well look at all the previous Patriots backups, everybody disappointed when they left”. First of all, I actually disagree with that statement. Second, that is a lazy argument. You have to look at each player individually and Garoppolo has the skills to be a long time starter in the NFL.
As far as dynasty is concerned, I don’t think Garoppolo should be treated too differently from rookie quarterbacks. He is a bit older and we don’t know for sure when he starts. Some expect the Patriots to franchise tag Garoppolo after this season. That means he could sit TWO more seasons before becoming a starter. We have no way of knowing what team he actually ends up starting for either. Even then as much as I like him it’s not 100% he succeeds elsewhere. That keeps him below Trubisky and Mahomes even though talent wise I actually like him more. In 2QB leagues this would be a guy to monitor and if you ever catch wind of his current owner feeling a bit frustrated with Garoppolo being stuck on the bench, try and acquire him!
Tier 5
Tier 5 is where you'll find a mix of low-end vet starting QBs, a couple more top rookies that I have reservations about and a couple other younger guys that do have some upside but are probably unlikely to be long-term quality starters. In general, if you are a championship contender, you don't want any of these guys as your backup QB, that goes for 1QB or 2QB. As a rebuilder, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and acquire the younger guys. In 1QB I'd pay a late 3rd or 4th for these guys and late 2nd to 3rd in 2QB.
27.) Joe Flacco
2016 PPG: 16.0 (21st)
HC/OC: John Harbaugh / Marty Mornhinweg
Top Receivers: Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Danny Woodhead, Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams
I would say Joe Flacco is the worst starting QB that also has excellent job security (and fairly so). Outside of his amazing super bowl, Flacco has never been a great QB. He’s also not bad either. He just kind of...is. For dynasty purposes, that makes him as unexciting as it gets, but he makes for an alright reliable backup. The Ravens also haven’t really done right by Flacco. I’m not sure if that is a bold statement but the best receivers he has ever had were past-their-prime Derrick Mason and Steve Smith. Honorable mentions to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. In 2015 they did attempt to give him some weapons in Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams in rounds 1 & 2. It hasn’t worked out yet as both have dealt with injuries. In 2017 we may see the Ravens prove me wrong on that statement, but for now it is fair to say that while most other teams have prioritized giving their franchise QB a stud receiver, the Ravens have been content to sign 30-somethings to smaller deals and hope Flacco can make it work.
It’s also worth noting that a once great offensive line has really been shaken up and could be the worst of Flacco’s career. Last year PFF darling Kelechi Osemele was the first piece to fall. This year a whopping three additional starters will not return. G Vlad Ducasse will not be missed. C Jeremy Zuttah and T Ricky Wagner were both above average. Thankfully the team still has the best piece from the formerly great offensive line. G Marshal Yanda is a likely future hall-of-famer. Similarly, T Ronnie Stanley is looking like a great draft pick. The other three spots will be major question marks. It could work out but it could also get ugly. The addition of Danny Woodhead was nice but I don’t think it was enough. Flacco’s receiving corps is below average and desperately needs a Perriman or Maxx Williams breakout. I’m predicting a finish outside the top 20 for Flacco.
UPDATE: Before I could publish this article, Maclin was signed to the Ravens. He's 29 but I do find it amusing that I had written about the Ravens being content to sign 30-something veterans before the Maclin signing came about. It certainly adds a much needed upgrade to the WRs and complements the deep threat ability of Wallace. However at 29 years old and coming off a down year where he was injured, I'm not super optimistic. I will say it gives Flacco a boost in 2017, but not much for dynasty purposes.
28.) Deshaun Watson (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Bill O’Brien (BOB is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Lamar Miller
I know being so low on Deshaun Watson is not a popular sentiment in the dynasty community. He is the #1 rookie QB for many. The case against him has a few main points. First, his ball velocity is well below average and that makes it pretty hard to succeed in the NFL. Draft Analyst Benjamin Allbright (@allbrightNFL) charts certain measurements for QBs and has a minimum threshold for a successful QB in each. His minimum ball velocity is 55 MPH. Watson was charted at 49 MPH. The most successful QBs I could find per Allbright’s charts that had such a low velo were Tyrod Taylor and Mike Glennon. Taylor is a favorable comparison although he is also considerably more mobile. Watson can run but he does not have exceptional speed.
The second worrisome stat is Watson’s 7.9 yards per attempt as a senior. Trubisky, Mahomes and even DeShone Kizer all had better numbers. In fact, the differences become even greater when using adjusted yards per attempt which factors in touchdowns and interceptions - Watson was the most mistake prone passer of the top prospects. Looking at the past five drafts (2013 to 2017) I could only find two other QBs drafted in the first two rounds that had a sub 8.0 YPA. The first was Derek Carr - and with his dazzling 50 TDs to 8 ints his adjusted YPA came out well ahead of Watson. The second was Christian Hackenberg. I guess you could say the jury is still out on him but by most beat writer accounts he has looked awful in NFL practices. Also consider for a moment that Watson was the only top QB with a top prospect WR (Mike Williams). High ints, below average yards per attempt, had a top talent receiver. I just can't shake the feeling that it won't work out for Watson.
Let’s look at the positives for a moment, because there certainly are some. As mentioned above, he does have above average mobility. He rushed for 600 yards and 9 TDs in 2016. Considering that Dak Prescott has only slightly above average speed but managed to finish top ten in QB rush yards and tied for first in rush TDs, you can expect Watson to also be a top ten rushing QB if not top five. Watson also has a very talented HC/OC and some nice options in the receiving game with Hopkins and Fuller. I do worry about whether his lack of velocity is a mismatch for Fuller’s speed. Lastly with Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman the team has a good running attack which means the pressure to carry the offense won’t be all on the rookie QB. I know some Watson supporters will point out his winning ways in college as a significant factor in liking him. Watson was 28-2 the past two seasons and of course beat Alabama on the biggest stage in college football. If wins were an individual player stat, Kellen Moore and Colt McCoy would be great NFL quarterbacks. The success of Watson's team just isn't something I care to consider. On the whole I see a QB prospect that is far from ‘can’t miss’ and I won’t be owning him in any of my dynasty leagues.
29. DeShone Kizer (R)
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC and OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku
The initial reaction for many to the Browns drafting Kizer was “welp, I’ll be avoiding that dumpster fire”. Taking a closer look though, as @Besfort2QMBL did for my blog, reveals an offense that actually has a lot of promise going forward. If you look at the top receivers you will see two 1st rounders from the past two years, a top receiving back and a sizeable contract to a vet FA. Outside of Duke Johnson, the other three were handpicked with significant investments from the new regime and I like the mix. That goes along with a surprisingly very good offensive line. This is a team that is built to allow a QB to succeed. The question is - will Kizer even be that QB?
As Besfort wrote, he actually predicts Kessler will be the starter in 2017, and we can’t ignore Brock Osweiler either. Kizer has some nice attributes with prototypical QB size at 6’4” 233 lbs and a 56 MPH ball velo. As part of a pretty bad 2016 Notre Dame team, Kizer maxed out at 2925 passing yards and 26 TDs in his two years as a starter. Those are not the kind of numbers you expect from a top NFL prospect. Kizer could have greatly benefited from one more year at college but chose to leave and has even acknowledged that he is pretty raw. I’m inclined to agree with Bes - Kessler starts this year and we have to wait a year to find out if Kizer is even fantasy viable. There is upside here for sure but I don’t believe he is worth significant investment in dynasty leagues.
30.) Paxton Lynch
2016 PPG: 9.1 (40th) 3 games, 2 starts
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker
In looking at Paxton vs Goff you must decide for yourself - is it better to believe in a QB that hasn’t really gotten a chance to prove himself and isn’t a lock to start vs a guy that failed miserably but was a #1 overall pick and is still the starter? I will take the guy that maybe has a chance to be good over the guy that was absolutely awful. Things can change but I like working with NFL data and that works against Goff here. Of course in the little we did see of Paxton Lynch, his numbers weren’t that great. Among 48 QBs with 50 pass attempts last year, Paxton ranked 41st in ANY/A. That was well ahead of dead last Goff, but behind every other rookie QB that had 50 pass attempts - that includes Cody Kessler and Jacoby Brissett. Not to mention that Paxton had two very good to great WRs to work with, albeit with a bad offensive line.
For 2017 - and again, Paxton is NOT guaranteed to be the starter. Far from it even - the Broncos made two significant improvements via the draft. They were the first team to grab an offensive lineman in the draft with Garett Bolles 20th overall. They then grabbed Carlos Henderson in the third. Henderson is a fast receiver with elite missed tackle ability. He will be a great complement to the already present duo. Paxton also has the rare combination of a strong arm (59 mph ball velo) and a very low interception rate. He threw just 4 interceptions in his senior season at Memphis and just 1 interception as a rookie in 83 attempts. That is excellent. He definitely has some traits you want from a potential franchise QB. He’s not a sure thing but I do like him.
31. Jared Goff
2016 PPG: 8.2 (42nd)
HC/OC: Sean McVay / Matt LaFleur
Top Receivers: Tavon Austin, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Kupp, Todd Gurley, Gerald Everett
In Goff we have a second year QB that had a disaster of a rookie season, no proven talent among his receivers and an offensive line that is among the worst - and the Rams opted to go for receivers instead of adding help along the line in the draft. They did sign perennial PFF top graded Tackle Andrew Whitworth, but he will be 36 by season’s end. As well as he has played, this could easily be the year he falls off, especially with the lack of talent around him.
So where is the hope? As indicated above, the Rams did spend three of their first four picks on a tight end and two WRs. The Rams attempted to bring in receivers last year as well, drafting two TEs and two WRs - but thanks to the trade up to #1 overall, they didn’t have another pick until the 4th round and none of the players drafted last year was able to make an impact. The real hope lies in first time head coach Sean McVay. At 30 years old when hired (now 31) McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history. He has just three years of experience as an OC where he helped Jay Gruden turn Kirk Cousins into a franchise QB for Washington. With Gruden having an offensive background as well, I wonder how much McVay played into Cousin’s success but the Rams were clearly sold. Joining McVay is also a first time OC in Matt LaFleur. LaFleur spent most of the past decade as one of Kyle Shanahan’s top assistants. LaFleur himself is just 37 years old so I suppose it’s worth noting that the Rams QB coach is the more experienced Greg Olson - formerly OC for Derek Carr and Blake Bortles. This trio will be giving it their all in 2017 to make Goff a franchise QB. If 2017 is a failure, I don’t see Goff getting a third year despite his #1 pick status. Goff isn’t someone I am comfortable investing in but I am certainly excited to watch him on another owner's team to see if he can be salvaged.
32. Alex Smith
2016 PPG: 15.3 (22nd)
HC/OC: Andy Reid / Matt Nagy
Top Receivers: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, Spencer Ware
Alex Smith would be in the mid-20s if not for the uncertainty that surrounds him after 2017. I do think he will remain a starter, but will it be for a good team? I can see the Rams signing him to a one or two year contract while looking for their QB of the future if Goff fails. For fantasy purposes, Alex Smith has been one of the most reliable bye week fill-ins / QB2s for the past several years. In his four seasons with KC, Smith has topped out at an interception rate of 1.6%. Among QBs with 1000+ pass attempts during that time, that INT% ranks 3rd behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Of course it comes with fewer yards and touchdowns but it still shows his elite ability to not make mistakes. Smith had another solid season in 2016 but struggled to throw touchdowns, finishing with 15 in 15 games. Travis Kelce had just 4 touchdowns on 87 receptions. That needs to change, which is why they brought in Patrick Mahomes. Maybe, just maybe, Smith can go out on a high note and deliver an increased TD% in 2017. With the talent he has around him it is very possible.
There isn’t much that can be definitively said about Smith’s future because we just don’t know where he will be. He will remain the same low int guy no matter where he goes, but if it’s to a bad team like the Rams, he will be irrelevant. Let’s look at a couple more possible team fits though. Let’s say one of the older QBs like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, or Eli Manning really falls off in 2017 and gets cut. As things stand 3rd round rookie Davis Webb is the most invested in a young backup by those teams. That is far from a guaranteed future starter. Alex Smith would be the perfect stopgap for those teams if they don’t want to go into full-on rebuild mode - and none of them are built to do so. It would be especially weird to see conservative Alex Smith with the Saints but I can envision it as a possibility. They would have to transition into a more run heavy offense but I could see a 4000 yard 25 TD season there. That’s just highlighting a few possible scenarios where Smith actually ends up relevant for another couple years and this ranking is lower than it should be. Smith is probably very cheap in dynasty right now and is a solid buy as a likely starter for a few more seasons.
33.) Cody Kessler
2016 PPG: 9.5 (39th) (Had multiple games without playing all 4 quarters)
HC/OC: Hue Jackson (Hue is both HC & OC)
Top Receivers: Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Duke Johnson, David Njoku
By having Kessler so closely ranked after DeShone Kizer, I think it should be clear that I don’t have total confidence in either. Kessler had some very promising moments in his rookie season but also struggled to throw for touchdowns and had trouble staying on the field. The highlights for Kessler included just two interceptions in 195 pass attempts. Among QBs with 150 or more pass attempts, that was the 5th best rate. Kessler’s best game of the season was a two point loss to the Titans where he threw for 336 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers while completing 63% of his passes. That game highlighted Kessler's big play potential as he completed passes of 20+ yards to 4 different receivers. He had two concussions last year. For a position that generally avoids concussions, seeing Kessler get two in a single season is worrisome. On the flip side the Browns massively upgraded their o-line this year, to the point that I’d confidently say they are top ten. The Browns QB should be well protected.
In addition to the o-line upgrades, Britt and Njoku will be nice additions that help ease the loss of Terrelle Pryor. Per @ScottBarrettDFB on twitter, Kessler and Britt are actually a perfect pairing with the two leading their respective position on crossing routes. Britt may not have Pryor’s size and athleticism (although at 6’3” he’s still a big target!), but I actually think he is a better fit for Kessler. That tweet by Scott also has me thinking the Browns expect Kessler to be the starter in 2017, which is something Bes alluded to in his article for my blog. I can definitely see the year playing out with Kessler being a surprise success, but I can also see Kizer starting by season's end. I’m not sure what Kessler’s price is right now but I have to imagine he is fairly cheap which would make him a good acquisition.
34.) Trevor Siemian
Age:25/26
2016 PPG: 14.3 (25th)
HC/OC: Vance Joseph / Mike McCoy
Top Receivers: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Carlos Henderson, C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker
Siemian is pretty similar to Kessler above. He has a couple extra things going against him though. He's a year older, a new coaching staff came in and he has a 1st round pick to contend with rather than a 2nd rounder. For a guy that was nearly Mr. Irrelevant in the 2015 NFL draft, his 2016 season has to be seen as a great success. For fantasy purposes he wasn't exactly a guy you wanted to start. However, his 243 yards per game and 18 touchdowns to 10 interceptions were a promising first season to build off of. He ranked 19th of 30 QBs in ANY/A (300+ pass attempts). That was ahead of guys like Jameis Winston and Cam Newton!
I personally own Siemian/Paxton duo in one league as my QB2/3 along with Trubisky. I also traded them with a 1st rounder for Tannehill in another (both 2QB leagues). As a pair I feel like they have a lot of upside given the WRs they have to work with. It's just that I have no real feel for whether either is a franchise guy and if so which one it will be. Lynch still has the long-term upper hand being a 1st rounder. Siemian showed enough in 2016 that he has value in dynasty and is worthy of finishing out my tier 5!
Jun 7, 2017
Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tier 3
Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'
Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal.
When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.
Tier 3
While my 2nd tier had a specific group of young QBs that I think have more to offer, my 3rd tier is more of a mixed bag. This tier includes the older guys that are still very good but can’t be counted on for anything more than the year ahead, if that. It includes some guys in their late 20s who are good but don’t appear to have what it takes to be elite. Lastly there are a couple younger guys that have flashed big talent but with far more inconsistency than the players in tier 2. This tier ended up being much larger than my first two, so I decided to make this tier its own article.
10.) Matthew Stafford
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 18.0 (10th)
HC/OC: Jim Caldwell / Jim Bob Cooter
Top Receivers: Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron, Kenny Golladay
If anyone were to make the jump to an elite dynasty QB from this tier, it would be Stafford. For starters, he already has one stud season under his belt. It was all the way back in 2011 when he was just 23, but that 5000 yard 40 pass TD performance remains in the back of my mind for what he is capable of. Over the past three years with Jim Bob Cooter as QB coach and then offensive coordinator, Stafford has evolved as a QB. During that span he has put up 64.5% completion rate and 78 TDs to just 35 ints in 48 games. For comparison, he had thrown 52 interceptions with a 60.6% completion rate in the previous three seasons.
It has come with a loss of some of the high volume stats he used to have but I do believe there is a chance for Stafford to put the best of both versions of himself together at some point in the next couple of years. It will help that the Lions awful run game from 2016 should be better with the return of Ameer Abdullah. I also like the addition of Golladay and hopefully we can see a more consistent Tate/Jones as well. I expect several more top twelve seasons for Stafford.
11.) Kirk Cousins
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 19.1 (6th)
HC/OC: Jay Gruden / Matt Cavanaugh
Top Receivers: Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson
Cousins has been every bit as good as Stafford the last couple of seasons, even a little better. Why does he find himself lower in my rankings? For me the considerable turnover in receivers plus a new offensive coordinator has me a little wary. Just a little bit. Jay Gruden undoubtedly played a big part in Cousin’s success, but I’m sure former OC Sean McVay played a big part as well. McVay’s replacement Matt Cavanaugh has been around the game a very long time but with mixed results. So that coupled with the loss of Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon keeps him below Stafford.
The Redskins did bring in some new weapons as well. Most notably Terrelle Pryor was given a surprisingly cheap one year prove it deal. I think he is a great addition but he could also be gone after the season. Perhaps just as noteworthy, the Redskins hope to have a full season of Josh Doctson in 2017. Doctson missed basically the entire year dealing with an achilles injury. He caught just two passes. On paper, the team should be able to continue being productive without missing a beat.
12.) Andy Dalton
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 16.4 (20th)
HC/OC: Marvin Lewis / Ken Zampese
Top Receivers: A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, John Ross, Tyler Boyd, Giovani Bernard
I think I have a love/hate relationship with Dalton. After being among the highest fantasy analysts on him the previous two seasons, he is given two top weapons and I’ve...kind of cooled off on him? I can see the cases both for and against Dalton. On one hand he missed a total of 20 games combined from A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard. That is very similar to the narrative I used in support of Dalton after the 2014 season when, sure enough, he got a healthy 2015 from those guys and had an excellent season. At this point though it’s hard to justify an expectation of a full season from Eifert and to a lesser extent, A.J. Green.
Along with the addition of two new offensive weapons, there were also positive takeaways from last year. Dalton actually bettered his INT% to a career best 1.4%. He also had a career low in TD% at 3.2. That number was even lower than his rookie season (3.9%) and even without considering the depleted receiving corps he had last year, that would be expected to improve. So what is keeping Dalton from being higher? He finished 5th in 2013 and was 7th in PPG through 13 weeks of 2015. You know what? I have convinced myself. I’m making last minute changes to this tier and raising Dalton up higher. I don’t really see Dalton ever putting up truly elite numbers but top ten numbers? He’s done it in the past with a healthy and talented corps and he should do it again.
13.) Carson Wentz
Age: 24/25
2016 PPG: 13.5 (28th)
HC/OC: Doug Pederson / Frank Reich
Top Receivers: Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith
The first thing that probably jumps out about Wentz is his 2016 points per game. At 13.5 and 28th best for a QB last year, it is far lower than anyone else on the list to this point. That is part of what makes dynasty wonderful, we try to project improvement going forward! There is also more to consider with Wentz. Through the first five weeks of the season, Wentz was more or less matching Dak Prescott in fantasy production. Dak had 17.3 PPG (5 games) and Wentz had 16.9 (4 games). After those first four games the Eagles best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson, had his 10 game suspension upheld. From weeks 6 through 15 Wentz had just 11.8 PPG. When Johnson returned, Wentz again stepped up his game with 15.4 PPG over the final two games (one admittedly against Cowboys backups).
Assuming Lane can stay away from the PEDs, that gives us a big reason to be optimistic. Another is the signings of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to bolster a very shallow WR corps and give Jordan Matthews much needed help. The team also drafted 6’4” Mack Hollins and deep threat specialist Shelton Gibson. It is safe to say 143 targets will not be wasted on the likes of Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor again. Taking these two things into consideration, a top 20 finish is absolutely expected for Wentz and top 15 seems reasonable as well. It is not yet clear whether he will develop into a star but there is definitely talent and that puts him as high as he is on my list.
14.) Ryan Tannehill
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 15.1 (23rd)
HC/OC: Adam Gase / Clyde Christensen
Top Receivers: Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas
Tannehill had an interesting season. He had career highs in completion %, TD% and ANY/A. Those numbers would indicate a breakout fantasy season. That was not the case. Tannehill had his lowest yards per game and highest INT% and also threw just 389 times in 13 games. In fact the Dolphins as a whole ranked dead last in offensive plays per game, which was fairly uncharacteristic of an Adam Gase offense. By ranking Tannehill 14th, I am expecting the good statistics to be repeated while also seeing the Dolphins become a higher volume offense. They don’t even necessarily have to be a more pass heavy offense, just more plays. If they could go from 32nd to 20th, that would have been nearly 100 extra plays in 2016. That would go a long way in improving Tannehill’s numbers.
Tannehill was also beginning to show signs of a much more fantasy relevant passer before going down with a partial ACL tear. Over his final 5 games he had a 71.0% completion rate and 11 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. He was the 13th best QB in PPG during that span. It’s also no secret that I still like Devante Parker a lot and think he has the potential to be a true WR1. Pair that with Jarvis Landry being one of the best possession receivers in the game and the elite speed of Kenny Stills (3rd in yards per catch min 50 targets) and there is a lot to like about this passing game. The trade for Julius Thomas also made perfect sense as Julius broke out under the tutelage of Adam Gase in Denver. He is a perfect end zone target for Tanny IF he can stay healthy. Don’t be surprised when Tannehill has a career year in 2017.
15.) Tom Brady
Age: 40
2016 PPG: 21.3 (5th)
HC/OC: Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels
Top Receivers: GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Dwayne Allen, James White
At age 40, can Brady be counted on for anything more than one year at a time? Absolutely not. In fact, even assuming 2017 won’t be the year he falls off is a risk. That said, it is a risk I am willing to take. It is always a struggle to rank an older elite talent in dynasty but for just 2017, Brady could be a difference maker for any team. Brady of course missed four games in 2016 but when he came back he was the same old Brady. In fact he set a career best in INT% (the all-time record in fact) and his highest TD% since his 2010 MVP season. He continued to throw for nearly 300 yards a game and his 28:2 TD:INT was just absurd.
As if that wasn’t enough, barring an age decline 2017 could somehow be even better. Gronk was active for just 3 full games and the addition of Brandin Cooks gives this team speed that it didn’t have before. I have an incredibly hard time imagining how much better things can get for Brady but another 300 yards/game 40 TD season is very possible.
16.) Ben Roethlisberger
Age: 35
2016 PPG: 18.5 (7th)
HC/OC: Mike Tomlin / Todd Haley
Top Receivers: Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Le’Veon Bell, Juju Smith-Schuster, Sammie Coates
After so many injuries - Big Ben has played all 16 games just three times in his thirteen year career - Roethlisberger feels more likely to hit his decline this year or next than Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I could be 100% wrong on that but Roethlisberger himself has already admitted to contemplating retirement. When on the field? Ben has never been better than the last three seasons and the Steelers have repeatedly added weapons to his offense. In 2015 he had a personal best of 328.2 pass yards per game, which was the 3rd most ever. Of course he only played in 12 games. Last year he also saw a marked increase in his TD% to 5.7. However his yards per game fell as deep threat Martavis Bryant was suspended for the entire year, Sammie Coates was relegated to special teams only after emerging early on thanks to a broken hand. Le’veon Bell missed four games. Markus Wheaton & Ladarius Green missed most of the season as well. That put role players like Eli Rogers and Cobi Hamilton into far more significant roles than the Steelers would have liked.
For the 2017 season, Martavis Bryant has been reinstated, Sammie Coates is healthy and looking to build on his early breakout and of course the team drafted Juju Smith-Schuster in the 2nd. After the Steelers offense finished 10th in points and 7th in yards (which was fantastic considering how much time expected contributors missed), the team is poised to rebound to 2015 numbers where they were 4th in points and 3rd in yards. Big Ben’s injury history absolutely scares me and as a result I don’t look at him any differently than Tom Brady as a dynasty asset despite the age difference. That said, he is another QB that can win championships in 2017.
17.) Drew Brees
Age: 38
2016 PPG: 21.6 (3rd)
HC/OC: Sean Payton / Pete Carmichael
Top Receivers: Mike Thomas, Willie Snead, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn, Coby Fleener
You’ll notice right away that Drew Brees PPG was higher in 2016 than the previous two QBs. So why when I have already said I’m not counting on them for more than one year is Brees lower? The answer is simple. Those two teams are gaining significant pieces for their pass game while the loss of Brandin Cooks (who of course goes to the aforementioned Tom Brady) is not made up for with Kamara and Ginn. The Saints are also set to run more on paper with the additions of Kamara and Adrian Peterson, but I’ve believed that in the past and it hasn’t really been true.
Brees has yet to really lose a step as he led the league in pass yards an unprecedented 7th time and 3rd consecutively. He also hit 30+ touchdowns for the 9th straight year and hit the 70% completion rate mark for the third time. Brees and Payton have been a perfect match over the last decade. It’s hard to say how much the loss of Cooks will affect the team. He led them in receiving yards and yards per catch although it was clear that 6’3” Michael Thomas was emerging as the WR1 by season’s end. Ted Ginn keeps the speed on the offense but at 32 years old he has certainly lost a step and isn’t as fast as Cooks, nor was he ever as good as a total receiver. Coby Fleener was also a disappointment in his first year with the Saints and they definitely need him to step up in 2017 for Brees to repeat his numbers. I have my concerns about Brees but he has a very good chance to rattle off yet another top 5 season.
18.) Blake Bortles
Age: 25
2016 PPG: 17.8 (13th)
HC/OC: Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett
Top Receivers: Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook, T.J. Yeldon
Ah Blake Bortles. One of the most enigmatic fantasy QBs. Is he or isn’t he a franchise QB? 2016 saw a slight improvement in completion percentage, and career bests in INT % and sack %. On the whole however, the season was a clear step backward and Bortles was far more inefficient and saw significant decreases in passing yards and touchdowns. The Jaguars also surprised many by hiring a HC and OC that were already part of the previous failed regime.
So what are the positives? When Doug Marrone took over as HC, Bortles had two of his best games all season. In both he had a completion rate better than 60% and threw for over 300 yards without any interceptions. It’s an extremely small sample size but gives a glimmer of hope to Bortles truthers that all is not lost. He also has a very talented group of receivers that was improved with the draft pick of Dede Westbrook. Leonard Fournette may not be much of a pass catcher and will surely hurt the volume of Bortles but for a team that was bottom ten in rush attempts, yards and touchdowns the presence of Fournette will do more good than bad. Bortles is very far from a sure thing but I lean more towards the positive side. (Disclaimer - there may be some subconscious bias as I am a Jaguars fan)
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