Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tier 3

Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'

Precursor: These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal. 

When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.

Tier 3

While my 2nd tier had a specific group of young QBs that I think have more to offer, my 3rd tier is more of a mixed bag. This tier includes the older guys that are still very good but can’t be counted on for anything more than the year ahead, if that. It includes some guys in their late 20s who are good but don’t appear to have what it takes to be elite. Lastly there are a couple younger guys that have flashed big talent but with far more inconsistency than the players in tier 2. This tier ended up being much larger than my first two, so I decided to make this tier its own article.

10.) Matthew Stafford

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 18.0 (10th)

HC/OC: Jim Caldwell / Jim Bob Cooter

Top Receivers: Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron, Kenny Golladay

If anyone were to make the jump to an elite dynasty QB from this tier, it would be Stafford. For starters, he already has one stud season under his belt. It was all the way back in 2011 when he was just 23, but that 5000 yard 40 pass TD performance remains in the back of my mind for what he is capable of. Over the past three years with Jim Bob Cooter as QB coach and then offensive coordinator, Stafford has evolved as a QB. During that span he has put up 64.5% completion rate and 78 TDs to just 35 ints in 48 games. For comparison, he had thrown 52 interceptions with a 60.6% completion rate in the previous three seasons.

It has come with a loss of some of the high volume stats he used to have but I do believe there is a chance for Stafford to put the best of both versions of himself together at some point in the next couple of years. It will help that the Lions awful run game from 2016 should be better with the return of Ameer Abdullah. I also like the addition of Golladay and hopefully we can see a more consistent Tate/Jones as well. I expect several more top twelve seasons for Stafford.

11.) Kirk Cousins

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 19.1 (6th)

HC/OC: Jay Gruden / Matt Cavanaugh

Top Receivers: Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson

Cousins has been every bit as good as Stafford the last couple of seasons, even a little better. Why does he find himself lower in my rankings? For me the considerable turnover in receivers plus a new offensive coordinator has me a little wary. Just a little bit. Jay Gruden undoubtedly played a big part in Cousin’s success, but I’m sure former OC Sean McVay played a big part as well. McVay’s replacement Matt Cavanaugh has been around the game a very long time but with mixed results. So that coupled with the loss of Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon keeps him below Stafford.

The Redskins did bring in some new weapons as well. Most notably Terrelle Pryor was given a surprisingly cheap one year prove it deal. I think he is a great addition but he could also be gone after the season. Perhaps just as noteworthy, the Redskins hope to have a full season of Josh Doctson in 2017. Doctson missed basically the entire year dealing with an achilles injury. He caught just two passes. On paper, the team should be able to continue being productive without missing a beat.

12.) Andy Dalton

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 16.4 (20th)

HC/OC: Marvin Lewis / Ken Zampese

Top Receivers: A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, John Ross, Tyler Boyd, Giovani Bernard

I think I have a love/hate relationship with Dalton. After being among the highest fantasy analysts on him the previous two seasons, he is given two top weapons and I’ve...kind of cooled off on him? I can see the cases both for and against Dalton. On one hand he missed a total of 20 games combined from A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard. That is very similar to the narrative I used in support of Dalton after the 2014 season when, sure enough, he got a healthy 2015 from those guys and had an excellent season. At this point though it’s hard to justify an expectation of a full season from Eifert and to a lesser extent, A.J. Green.

Along with the addition of two new offensive weapons, there were also positive takeaways from last year. Dalton actually bettered his INT% to a career best 1.4%. He also had a career low in TD% at 3.2. That number was even lower than his rookie season (3.9%) and even without considering the depleted receiving corps he had last year, that would be expected to improve. So what is keeping Dalton from being higher? He finished 5th in 2013 and was 7th in PPG through 13 weeks of 2015. You know what? I have convinced myself. I’m making last minute changes to this tier and raising Dalton up higher. I don’t really see Dalton ever putting up truly elite numbers but top ten numbers? He’s done it in the past with a healthy and talented corps and he should do it again.

13.) Carson Wentz

Age: 24/25

2016 PPG: 13.5 (28th)

HC/OC: Doug Pederson / Frank Reich

Top Receivers: Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith

The first thing that probably jumps out about Wentz is his 2016 points per game. At 13.5 and 28th best for a QB last year, it is far lower than anyone else on the list to this point. That is part of what makes dynasty wonderful, we try to project improvement going forward! There is also more to consider with Wentz. Through the first five weeks of the season, Wentz was more or less matching Dak Prescott in fantasy production. Dak had 17.3 PPG (5 games) and Wentz had 16.9 (4 games). After those first four games the Eagles best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson, had his 10 game suspension upheld. From weeks 6 through 15 Wentz had just 11.8 PPG. When Johnson returned, Wentz again stepped up his game with 15.4 PPG over the final two games (one admittedly against Cowboys backups). 

Assuming Lane can stay away from the PEDs, that gives us a big reason to be optimistic. Another is the signings of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to bolster a very shallow WR corps and give Jordan Matthews much needed help. The team also drafted 6’4” Mack Hollins and deep threat specialist Shelton Gibson. It is safe to say 143 targets will not be wasted on the likes of Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor again. Taking these two things into consideration, a top 20 finish is absolutely expected for Wentz and top 15 seems reasonable as well. It is not yet clear whether he will develop into a star but there is definitely talent and that puts him as high as he is on my list.

14.) Ryan Tannehill

Age: 29

2016 PPG: 15.1 (23rd)

HC/OC: Adam Gase / Clyde Christensen

Top Receivers: Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas

Tannehill had an interesting season. He had career highs in completion %, TD% and ANY/A. Those numbers would indicate a breakout fantasy season. That was not the case. Tannehill had his lowest yards per game and highest INT% and also threw just 389 times in 13 games. In fact the Dolphins as a whole ranked dead last in offensive plays per game, which was fairly uncharacteristic of an Adam Gase offense. By ranking Tannehill 14th, I am expecting the good statistics to be repeated while also seeing the Dolphins become a higher volume offense. They don’t even necessarily have to be a more pass heavy offense, just more plays. If they could go from 32nd to 20th, that would have been nearly 100 extra plays in 2016. That would go a long way in improving Tannehill’s numbers.

Tannehill was also beginning to show signs of a much more fantasy relevant passer before going down with a partial ACL tear. Over his final 5 games he had a 71.0% completion rate and 11 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. He was the 13th best QB in PPG during that span. It’s also no secret that I still like Devante Parker a lot and think he has the potential to be a true WR1. Pair that with Jarvis Landry being one of the best possession receivers in the game and the elite speed of Kenny Stills (3rd in yards per catch min 50 targets) and there is a lot to like about this passing game. The trade for Julius Thomas also made perfect sense as Julius broke out under the tutelage of Adam Gase in Denver. He is a perfect end zone target for Tanny IF he can stay healthy. Don’t be surprised when Tannehill has a career year in 2017.

15.) Tom Brady

Age: 40

2016 PPG: 21.3 (5th)

HC/OC: Bill Belichick / Josh McDaniels

Top Receivers: GRONK, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Dwayne Allen, James White

At age 40, can Brady be counted on for anything more than one year at a time? Absolutely not. In fact, even assuming 2017 won’t be the year he falls off is a risk. That said, it is a risk I am willing to take. It is always a struggle to rank an older elite talent in dynasty but for just 2017, Brady could be a difference maker for any team. Brady of course missed four games in 2016 but when he came back he was the same old Brady. In fact he set a career best in INT% (the all-time record in fact) and his highest TD% since his 2010 MVP season. He continued to throw for nearly 300 yards a game and his 28:2 TD:INT was just absurd.

As if that wasn’t enough, barring an age decline 2017 could somehow be even better. Gronk was active for just 3 full games and the addition of Brandin Cooks gives this team speed that it didn’t have before. I have an incredibly hard time imagining how much better things can get for Brady but another 300 yards/game 40 TD season is very possible.

16.) Ben Roethlisberger

Age: 35

2016 PPG: 18.5 (7th)

HC/OC: Mike Tomlin / Todd Haley

Top Receivers: Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Le’Veon Bell, Juju Smith-Schuster, Sammie Coates

After so many injuries - Big Ben has played all 16 games just three times in his thirteen year career - Roethlisberger feels more likely to hit his decline this year or next than Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I could be 100% wrong on that but Roethlisberger himself has already admitted to contemplating retirement. When on the field? Ben has never been better than the last three seasons and the Steelers have repeatedly added weapons to his offense. In 2015 he had a personal best of 328.2 pass yards per game, which was the 3rd most ever. Of course he only played in 12 games. Last year he also saw a marked increase in his TD% to 5.7. However his yards per game fell as deep threat Martavis Bryant was suspended for the entire year, Sammie Coates was relegated to special teams only after emerging early on thanks to a broken hand. Le’veon Bell missed four games. Markus Wheaton & Ladarius Green missed most of the season as well. That put role players like Eli Rogers and Cobi Hamilton into far more significant roles than the Steelers would have liked.

For the 2017 season, Martavis Bryant has been reinstated, Sammie Coates is healthy and looking to build on his early breakout and of course the team drafted Juju Smith-Schuster in the 2nd. After the Steelers offense finished 10th in points and 7th in yards (which was fantastic considering how much time expected contributors missed), the team is poised to rebound to 2015 numbers where they were 4th in points and 3rd in yards. Big Ben’s injury history absolutely scares me and as a result I don’t look at him any differently than Tom Brady as a dynasty asset despite the age difference. That said, he is another QB that can win championships in 2017.

17.) Drew Brees

Age: 38

2016 PPG: 21.6 (3rd)

HC/OC: Sean Payton / Pete Carmichael

Top Receivers: Mike Thomas, Willie Snead, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn, Coby Fleener

You’ll notice right away that Drew Brees PPG was higher in 2016 than the previous two QBs. So why when I have already said I’m not counting on them for more than one year is Brees lower? The answer is simple. Those two teams are gaining significant pieces for their pass game while the loss of Brandin Cooks (who of course goes to the aforementioned Tom Brady) is not made up for with Kamara and Ginn. The Saints are also set to run more on paper with the additions of Kamara and Adrian Peterson, but I’ve believed that in the past and it hasn’t really been true.

Brees has yet to really lose a step as he led the league in pass yards an unprecedented 7th time and 3rd consecutively. He also hit 30+ touchdowns for the 9th straight year and hit the 70% completion rate mark for the third time. Brees and Payton have been a perfect match over the last decade. It’s hard to say how much the loss of Cooks will affect the team. He led them in receiving yards and yards per catch although it was clear that 6’3” Michael Thomas was emerging as the WR1 by season’s end. Ted Ginn keeps the speed on the offense but at 32 years old he has certainly lost a step and isn’t as fast as Cooks, nor was he ever as good as a total receiver. Coby Fleener was also a disappointment in his first year with the Saints and they definitely need him to step up in 2017 for Brees to repeat his numbers. I have my concerns about Brees but he has a very good chance to rattle off yet another top 5 season.

18.) Blake Bortles

Age: 25

2016 PPG: 17.8 (13th)

HC/OC: Doug Marrone / Nathaniel Hackett

Top Receivers: Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook, T.J. Yeldon

Ah Blake Bortles. One of the most enigmatic fantasy QBs. Is he or isn’t he a franchise QB? 2016 saw a slight improvement in completion percentage, and career bests in INT % and sack %. On the whole however, the season was a clear step backward and Bortles was far more inefficient and saw significant decreases in passing yards and touchdowns. The Jaguars also surprised many by hiring a HC and OC that were already part of the previous failed regime.

So what are the positives? When Doug Marrone took over as HC, Bortles had two of his best games all season. In both he had a completion rate better than 60% and threw for over 300 yards without any interceptions. It’s an extremely small sample size but gives a glimmer of hope to Bortles truthers that all is not lost. He also has a very talented group of receivers that was improved with the draft pick of Dede Westbrook. Leonard Fournette may not be much of a pass catcher and will surely hurt the volume of Bortles but for a team that was bottom ten in rush attempts, yards and touchdowns the presence of Fournette will do more good than bad. Bortles is very far from a sure thing but I lean more towards the positive side. (Disclaimer - there may be some subconscious bias as I am a Jaguars fan)

Tiered Dynasty Rankings - QB Tiers 1 & 2

Note: Once additional rankings are published you will be able to find all QB Rankings by clicking on the 'Tiered QB Rankings' label at the bottom of the post. For ALL rankings that will be a part of this piece, you can use 'Tiered Dynasty Rankings'

Precursor: Thanks to those who voted! I asked if people wanted rankings or individual player pieces and you chose rankings. I still hope to get to more article style writing later on in the year. These are dynasty rankings. In Dynasty teams can be all over the map in what they are trying to do with their team. Because of that these rankings try to list players without a specific goal of win now vs rebuild in mind. As a result you can adjust the rankings a little bit to account for your team's current goal. 

When I rank players for dynasty I try to look at a 3ish year window. The factors I consider are age, opportunity, production and situation stability. With younger guys who have yet to prove themselves I also take a look at their prospect status and all the factors mentioned in my rookie draft article here. As far as the tiering works, it’s pretty informal and I will break the tiers off if I feel there is a significant gap in value. Ages listed will be as of 9/1/17, however if a player's birthday is during the regular season I will list two ages.

Tier 1

The top tier of quarterbacks consists includes the best of the best. These guys have proven production and generally both a high floor and high ceiling. They all should have 3+ years of top production remaining. I don’t generally value QBs too highly in a standard 1QB league but I would value these players at a 1st+. In 2QB, probably about three 1sts.

1.) Andrew Luck

Age: 27/28
2016 PPG: 21.3 (4th)
HC/OC: Chuck Pagano / Rob Chudzinski
Top Receivers: T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Jack Doyle

First the bad - I struggled with this one. Luck finished just 11th in ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) last year. After T.Y. Hilton his receivers are talented but unproven (add Dorsett and Kamar Aiken as the next two after the trio above). He missed time in 2015 with a shoulder injury, missed a game in 2016 due to a concussion and is currently recuperating from offseason shoulder surgery (He is not expected to miss any regular season games). So there is definitely a bit of an injury history with Luck that doesn’t get talked about often.

So what makes Andrew Luck my #1 dynasty QB? Despite a not so great corps of receivers, he did finish 4th in PPG last year and Moncrief and Doyle may get better. Luck has dealt with a poor offensive line the past few years and while it is still not great, the Colts have their starting 5 from the end of last season returning. Three of those players were rookies last year. That kind of stability could go a long way. There is definitely room to continue improving the receivers and offensive line. I see several more top 5 seasons in Luck’s future and likely some #1 seasons as well.

2.) Aaron Rodgers

Age: 33/34

2016 PPG: 23.9 (1st)

HC/OC: Mike McCarthy / Edgar Bennett

Top Receivers: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett, Ty Montgomery

One of the greatest QBs to ever play the game, is it time to start holding Rodgers’ age against him? I say yes but only to a very small extent. You never know when the decline may come. We have been spoiled by the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and even Brett Favre playing at a very high level in their late 30s in recent years, but that simply doesn’t happen with everyone and to assume it will with Rodgers simply because he is an all-time great would be a mistake.

Rogers was very good but not great in 2015. He had a 16 game stretch from the 6th game of 2015 to the 5th game of 2016 where he had 600 pass attempts but just a 58% completion rate, 3700 yards and 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. That is a fine player but well below what we’ve come to expect from Rodgers. In the final 14 games of last year including playoffs, Rodgers was playing as good as he ever had. His numbers during those games? 66.8% completion rate, 4262 pass yards and a 39:5 TD:INT ratio. There’s no reason to think he’ll stop putting up those top QB numbers again anytime soon.

If there is one area of concern to be aware about it is that prior to the 2016 season, the team surprisingly cut G Josh Sitton. Following the season they let go of their other long time Guard T.J. Lang. He was replaced by aging former stud Jahri Evans who will be 34 before the season starts. Rodgers is definitely a QB that makes the job of his offensive lineman easier and they still have an above average line overall but losing such quality players in back-to-back years is worth noting. Rodgers will decline eventually but all signs point to at least a couple more years at the top of the QB rankings.

3.) Russell Wilson

Age: 28/29

2016 PPG: 17.1 (16th)

HC/OC: Pete Carroll / Darrell Bevell

Top Receivers: Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, C.J. Prosise

I have to admit, I looove Russell Wilson. He is a very different QB from Andrew Luck as well. For starters 2016 was his most passing attempts yet at 546. Andrew Luck had 545 in one less game and averaged 604 passes in his three prior full seasons. Wilson’s value comes in part due to his very high floor. He has finished 11th or better in total points in all five of his seasons. This was in large part thanks to never missing a game. Up until last year when he dealt with a bad ankle he was also aided by above average mobility. Assuming his ankle is 100%, I do expect some more running again in 2017.

Outside of the lack of mobility in 2016, Wilson’s numbers declined in part thanks to an abnormally low TD%. Through 7 games, Wilson was throwing more than ever but had just 5 touchdowns. Over the final 11 games including two playoff games, Wilson threw 20 touchdowns. This represented a 5.5% TD rate, much closer to his career average of 6.1% before 2016. My point here is that I don’t see a repeat of 2016’s stats and that Russ should continue to put up top 10 or better seasons going forward. I also think his receivers are underrated. He may not have a T.Y. Hilton but Doug Baldwin has emerged as an excellent player. The rest of his receivers all have very different qualities from one another (throw rookie Amara Darboh in that mix as well) that will complement each other nicely. 

The Seahawks offensive line was genuinely horrendous in 2016. They signed Luke Joeckel (a draft bust for sure but he does actually represent a likely upgrade for Seattle), drafted Ethan Pocic 58th overall and are desperately hoping for improvement from 2016 1st rounder Germain Ifedi who finished 72nd of 72 qualifying Guards according to PFF player grades. They still have a ways to go to fix this line long term but they should be a little better this year and that will only help.

4.) Cam Newton

Age: 28

2016 PPG: 17.9 (11th)

HC/OC: Ron Rivera / Mike Shula

Top Receivers: Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin, Curtis Samuel, Christian McCaffrey

In 2015, Cam had his best season to date with 3800 pass yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 630 rush yards and 10 rush TDs to go along with it. I’d go so far to say it was one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. Everything that went right in ‘15 went wrong in ‘16 as he had career worsts in pass TD %, completion % and rush yards while tying his previous low of 5 rushing TDs. The fact that he was still the 11th best fantasy QB in PPG was pretty impressive. Further hurting his value, he also had offseason shoulder surgery much like Andrew Luck. 

The Panthers wasted no time trying to make sure Cam would not have another “poor” season. The Panthers picked three times in the first two rounds. They drafted RB Christian McCaffrey, a WR hybrid in Curtis Samuel and G Taylor Moton. They also spent a surprisingly high amount of money on FA Matt Kalil who at best could have been described as inconsistent during his time with the Vikings. I’m on record stating I love the fit of both McCaffrey and Samuel and I think they will be huge for the Panthers passing game.

Cam gets unfairly tagged as an injury prone player. He does play physical and takes hits thanks to how often he runs. He does play banged up from time to time and I think that played a part in his poor 2016 season. That said, he has played in 93 of a possible 96 regular season games and 99 of 102 games including playoffs. There is always a little recency bias when a player is coming off a disappointing year. You can take advantage of that by acquiring Cam this offseason!

5.) Matt Ryan

Age: 32

2016 PPG: 22.0 (2nd)

HC/OC: Dan Quinn / Steve Sarkisian

Top Receivers: Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu

I hesitated a bit before including Matt Ryan as the last player in my first tier. He was never a top 5 QB before last year and will he be able to maintain the success that came with Kyle Shanahan? I’m not 100% certain but I do think he will enjoy several more years of quality production. For starters Matt Ryan averaged 4500 passing yards and 27 pass TDs in the five years prior to his 2016 breakout campaign. Even with some dropoff he is probably a top 5 QB.

He also has an excellent supporting cast around him. That starts with one of the best WRs in the game in Julio Jones. I also think while Devonta Freeman’s ability as a pass catcher is appreciated, the RB duo’s value to the passing game combined is a little underrated. Along with Tevin Coleman, the two put up a receiving line of 85-883-5 last year. Throw in Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and promising young TE Austin Hooper and you have a team that is built to continue putting up big offensive numbers.

Tier 2

The next 4 players represent the future of the QB position in dynasty. These young players already have a good season or two under their belt with room to grow. I would put their worth at a mid to late 1st in 1QB and 2 to 2.5 1sts in 2QB.

6.) Jameis Winston

Age: 23

2016 PPG: 16.9 (17th)

HC/OC: Dirk Koetter / Todd Monken

Top Receivers: Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin

Yes, Winston is my favorite of the second and third year QBs. For starters he is the youngest at just 23 years old. His age adjusted production is just phenomenal. There are 6 QBs that have thrown for 3000 yards at age 22 or younger. Jameis is the only one to do it at 21. There are 3 QBs to throw 4000+ yards at 22 or younger. Jameis has done it twice. He is also one of nine players to throw for 20+ TDs at 22 or younger and again holds the sole distinction of doing it twice as well as the record for most touchdowns by a player that young with 28 last year.

That brings us to 2017. Coming off a 4000 yard 28 TD season the Bucs gave Winston upgrades at every position. It starts with the big FA signing of Desean Jackson. DJax and his speed are a perfect complement to Mike Evans. In the draft they took O.J. Howard 19th overall and he should come in and start right away or at least make a very nice duo with Cameron Brate. In the third they took Chris Godwin who is one of my favorite receivers in the draft and will have an opportunity to be the long time #2 for the Bucs. They weren’t done though as they added a quality pass catching RB in Jeremy McNichols in the 5th round as well. It is not unrealistic to forecast a jump into the top tier after this season.

7.) Marcus Mariota

Age: 23/24

2016 PPG: 17.7 (14th)

HC/OC: Mike Mularkey / Terry Robiskie

Top Receivers: Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, Demarco Murray, Taywan Taylor

Much like with Jameis Winston's Bucs, the Titans have focused on giving their young franchise QB as many weapons as possible. Last year they focused on the run game and the offensive line with DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry and Jack Conklin. This year it was all about the pass game with Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith all in the top 100 picks. Mariota had a fantastic sophomore campaign, improving both his TD% and INT% to numbers that were actually better than Winston’s. The flipside is that most notably Mariota is recovering from a broken leg and missed multiple games as a rookie with two separate sprained MCLs. Mariota’s smaller frame has led to some worry about his ability to hold up over a full season and the injuries certainly haven’t helped.

The biggest piece missing for Mariota was a true #1 WR and the Titans hope to have found that in Corey Davis. Davis, Rishard Matthews and Taywan Taylor make a very talented trio although it may take a year for the rookies to really hit their stride. At tight end Delanie Walker is older but I did really like the pick of Jonnu Smith. Really the only thing limiting Mariota is that he won’t throw nearly as much as Winston - the Titans finished 28th in pass attempts last year, content to run the ball as much as possible with Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The added receivers will improve that number for sure, but don’t expect a pass heavy offense in the next couple of years.

8.) Dak Prescott

Age: 24

2016 PPG: 17.9 (12th)

HC/OC: Jason Garrett / Scott Linehan

Top Receivers: Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley

Prescott is coming off what I would consider the greatest rookie QB season of all-time. Adjusted for era Dan Marino’s rookie campaign may be better but the point stands! Dak was phenomenal with numbers that rookie QBs just don’t put up like a 23:4 TD:INT ratio and a 67.8% completion rate. Where can he go from here? About that...I worry about his ceiling in the short term because this offense is built for its power run game. While Dez is still very good, he hasn’t been quite as good the last two years and the rest of the receivers are lacking. At some point, hopefully with next year’s free agency and draft class they will give the passing game some newer younger weapons.

Dak reminds me a lot of a less mobile Russell Wilson. Both came in as a mid-round draft picks that were not expected to start right away. For different reasons, they did and put up extremely strong seasons in doing so. Aided by a good offense all around them, the two QBs had some of the normal pressures of being a rookie QB starter taken off of them. Much like Wilson, Dak will be very capable of multiple top ten seasons in the short term but the team is going to remain in the bottom ten for passing attempts (they were 30th in 2016). It’s a matter of floor vs ceiling with Dak and I do believe his floor will stay extremely high. That consistency he showed as a rookie is extremely valuable.

9.) Derek Carr

Age: 26

2016 PPG: 18.2 (9th)

HC/OC: Jack Del Rio / Todd Downing

Top Receivers: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook

The last promising young QB of this tier is Derek Carr. Carr was the most successful of the four in 2016 but is also the oldest and is coming off a broken leg. Nor did the Raiders invest so heavily in the passing game. While they have nice receivers it isn’t quite as sexy as Mariota or Winston. Adding Marshawn Lynch may mean a decrease in pass attempts but Lynch was always a decent receiver and should help more than he hurts. The Raiders also have a phenomenal pass blocking line. The line allowed just 18 sacks. That was just one of six times in the past five years that a team allowed 20 or fewer sacks.

Looking at Carr’s weapons, Amari Cooper has been a curious player. He is certainly extremely talented but he has not been favored in the Red Zone. Over the last two seasons, the Raiders have passed in the red zone 146 times. Cooper has seen just 20 of those targets with only 8 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile Seth Roberts has 29 red zone targets on far fewer total targets. He’s also been more successful with 9 red zone touchdowns. Is this just a two year statistical oddity? For Carr to be his best I think it needs to change, and it likely will. I also hope the Raiders will be more aggressive acquiring offensive talent in the next couple of seasons. Crabtree turns 30 in September and Cook/Lynch are even older.

Dynasty Rookie Sleepers - Players to monitor after your rookie draft

I told you all I felt this was a really deep draft class right? Even after covering 53 players so far, I still have players I want to bring up. Pretty much every year without fail there are guys that go undrafted in dynasty rookie drafts but end up being contributors to fantasy teams. In 2015 Thomas Rawls fit the bill. Last year it was Dak Prescott (in 1QB leagues that drafted early) and Tyreek Hill. To a lesser extent, undrafted players Robby Anderson and Jalen Richard became worthy of at least being on dynasty rosters. Below I have five guys I don’t see myself drafting but I do plan to keep an eye on them. If you are in a league like mine with expanded rosters during the offseason, these guys make great stashes. If they generate buzz during the preseason, great! If not they can be cut without harm.

RB Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers

I’m starting off with Breida because A.) I think it’s well documented that I am all in on Kyle Shanahan at this point and B.) He is the #1 SPARQ RB of 2017. He was also insanely productive in college with 171 carries in 2014 for 1485 yards and 18 total touchdowns. That’s an incredible 8.7 yards per carry. In 2015 he backed that up with 203 carries for 1609 yards and 17 touchdowns. That was a 7.9 YPC. These numbers came at the Sun Belt Conference’s Georgia Southern but that 8.7 YPC was the third best since 2000 minimum 150 carries (via Sports-Reference). The guy was on pace to be a 3rd or 4th round draft pick at worst. 

Then...2016 happened. While remaining as Georgia Southern’s feature back he had 168 carries for 646 yards and 5 TDs. That is a 3.8 YPC which would have been unacceptable for an NFL prospect in even the toughest of conferences. The dropoff was shocking and I can’t think of a comparable situation. Breida was not even invited to the NFL combine. I’m sure expectations were low at Georgia Southern’s pro day but even if scouts were expecting impressive athleticism from Breida, he blew them away. He ran a 4.39 in the 40 (4.44 after adjusting for hand timed) and combined it with an impressive 23 reps of the bench press. That would have been the 4th best 40 time and tied for third best in the bench press at the combine. He didn’t stop there though. His 42” vertical was easily better than anyone at the combine (Alvin Kamara’s 39.5 was #1). His 11’2” broad jump? Once again better than any combine RB, beating Kamara’s 10’11” jump.

So here we have a guy that put up eye-popping numbers in 2014 and ‘15. He is insanely athletic. He was paired with one of the best offensive minds in the game. He was just genuinely so terrible in 2016 that everything else must be taken with a grain of salt. I want to stash this guy on all of my offseason rosters. If anybody can rectify whatever his 2016 issues were, its Shanny.

WR Isaiah Ford, Miami Dolphins

Much like college teammate Bucky Hodges (coincidence or not?) in my previous article, Ford was a guy that many draft analysts had in their top 100. Ford had excellent numbers as a 3-year starter and is only 21 years old so adjusted for age they look even better. However, unlike Bucky Hodges, Ford did not excel at the combine outside of a 127” broad jump. He ran a 4.61 40 yard dash and at 6’1” 194 lbs he isn’t nearly big enough to ignore that lack of speed like with Mike Williams. The final nail in the coffin was NFL teams validating those issues by letting Ford slip all the way to the 7th round, 237th overall. If possible to make that even worse, he went to the Dolphins who are loaded at receiver with Landry, Parker, Stills and even Carroo. You have to imagine the Dolphins do like him quite a bit to take him in the draft at all despite their WR depth but I would still give Ford almost no chance to make an impact in 2017. He is worth a deep roster stash just to see if he can make some waves in the preseason but if he finds his way onto any of my rosters I doubt he’d make my regular season team.

TE Jake Butt, Denver Broncos

After the criticism Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette faced for skipping their bowl games, Butt was a somber reminder why it’s not a bad idea. The promising Butt (ugh that sounds weird) was likely going to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder with a chance for immediate impact before tearing his ACL in the Orange Bowl. That was December 30th of 2016 meaning there is a very good chance he does not play a down in the NFL this year. It also means we don’t have athletic measurements on Butt. 

With the Broncos, Butt has little competition as of now. However his QB situation is uncertain and OC Mike McCoy has a spotty track record with tight ends. McCoy made very little use of receiving TEs in his first stint with the Broncos. Julius Thomas played his first two years under McCoy but did not break out until Adam Gase came in. When becoming the Chargers head coach he was handed one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Antonio Gates and we can’t really attribute any success Gates had to McCoy. However he also was the man in charge while Ladarius Green gave us flashes of brilliance without ever becoming the fantasy starter many expected. Lastly in his final year as HC rookie Hunter Henry emerged as a potential future star at the position. There is definitely talent and opportunity here and Butt can be stashed on the IR in dynasty leagues, but is it worth passing up a player that can possibly increase his value in the now? For me that’s a no but I wouldn’t fault anyone for disagreeing.

*Super Sleeper Special*

RB Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams, Cincinnati Bengals

An awesome nickname, SEC production and above average athleticism, it’s simultaneously weird and understandable that Boom comes with zero fanfare. Obviously, the primary and extremely significant factor is opportunity. Signing with the Bengals it’s near impossible to imagine Boom getting significant playing time. Unless they keep 4 RBs it’s hard to see him making the team - even then RB Cedric Peerman has been a special teams mainstay for several years. Come to think of it, maybe getting cut by the Bengals would be the best possible outcome for Boom!

Anyway...Boom (yeah that’s right, I’m sticking with the awesome nickname) played at Kentucky, one of the runts of the SEC which certainly aided his lack of buzz. He’s also very small at 5’7”, though his 190 lbs is not an issue at that height. As far as production, results were mixed. He never went below 6.5 YPC in his three years and that is phenomenal in the SEC. On the flip side he maxed out at 171 carries and 1,170 yards in 2016 while also being on the lesser side of an RB committee. As a senior he had poor performances in the bowl game against Georgia Tech and also against Alabama (as one would expect) but also had a 15-123-1 vs South Carolina and 16-127-1 line against Tennessee. At the combine he ranked above average in every drill except for the bench press. That’s a bit of a shame as it would have offset his small size. Boom has basically no chance to make an impact on the Bengals in the now or in the future with Joe Mixon being there. I can only hope he finds his way to another team. He meets too many of the criteria I look for in a prospect to not get mentioned here.

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 4th Round

I’d say this is where we look at the really deep sleepers and identify some rather unknown players but honestly, there are a number of high profile names that fell to my 4th round for any number of reasons. There are multiple players drafted in the top 100 still to be named. Multiple combine darlings. Multiple FBS stars with big time production. Maybe it is because I’ve done more research this year but I honestly feel like this is the deepest class that I’ve seen since I’ve been doing dynasty (4th year now). 2014 was tremendous as far as WRs go but I don’t believe the 4th round had as much to offer as 2017 does. This round is WR heavy. I have a reputation as a hoarder of WRs and love looking for diamonds in the rough at the position so that is no surprise to those that play dynasty with me. Read on to see what I think!

37.) WR Trent Taylor, San Francisco 49ers

Taylor is an intriguing case of big time production at odds with his lack of size and athleticism. Taylor led the FBS in receiving yards, ahead of his much higher rated teammate Carlos Henderson. He was also second in receptions. His line of 136-1803-12 is eye popping. He rarely faced top teams but was at least respectable when he did. 4-68-1 against Oklahoma. 8-80-0 against Auburn. Both of those games came as a sophomore, mind you. 10-149-1 against Arkansas State in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl. 8-78-0 against Arkansas. Lastly, in their final game for Louisiana Tech it was Taylor who shined in the Armed Forces Bowl with the best performance of his college career, putting up a line of 12-233-2 against Navy in a game his team won as time expired. If Taylor could have simply put up respectable numbers at the combine it would have been so much easier to like him. Instead you get a guy that is tiny for the NFL at 5’8” 181 lbs and also very slow at 4.63. For what it’s worth Taylor also has tiny hands for a receiver at 8 and a quarter inches. According to mockdraftable.com that puts him in the 2nd percentile. If you recall from 2016, there was plenty of skepticism over Tajae Sharpe’s hand size and he comes in at 8 and three quarters inches. I love Taylor’s college production and I think he can be a decent slot receiver in the NFL but his ceiling is very much capped by his size and athleticism. He will have opportunity right away with the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan will get the most out of him, but to take him earlier than the 4th round would be quite a risk.

38.) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars

Dede was electric on the field. His 80-1524-17 line at Oklahoma is absurd. For comparison, Joe Mixon’s 37 recs and 538 rec yards were second most on the team. He also has big play speed with a 4.44 in the 40. How in the world did a guy with numbers like that fall so far? A couple domestic violence incidents were the main factor. His extremely slender frame also played a part. At 6’0” he is 4 inches taller than Taylor above and (spoiler!) Ryan Switzer below but weighs just 178 lbs. His numbers outside of the 40 yard dash were mostly poor. He is also among the older rookies and turns 24 in November. For dynasty purposes, landing with the Jags was less than ideal. I do believe Allen Robinson is firmly locked in as the WR1 while Hurns and Lee will battle for the WR2 & 3 roles. It’s hard to see Westbrook making a big impact in year one unless you think he is a phenomenal talent. In which case he should be able to pass Hurns and Lee and you should take him somewhere in the 3rd. Westbrook may have the highest ceiling of any player in my 4th round but he requires patience and certainly comes with concerns.

39.) WR Ardarius Stewart, New York Jets

Ardarius is one of those guys I look at and say “Wow, do I really have him so low?”. Ardarius was pretty productive for the Crimson Tide after you adjust for the low passing numbers. He maxed out at 54-864-8 in college, but of course Alabama runs as much as they can. He clocks in for the 40 at 4.49 which is very nice with his 5’11” 204 lbs size. He was drafted 79th overall which is much higher than some of the players elsewhere in my 4th round. He has opportunity to make an impact right away but...it’s with the Jets. The Jets are vying with the Rams for worst passing situation in the league. With the Rams signing an offensive head coach, I’d probably put the Jets at the bottom. The Jets finished 27th in pass yards and 28th in pass TDs last year. I don’t see that number improving. I’m definitely in favor of them getting some help for the pass game but their offensive outlook is so bleak that I intend to let someone else take Stewart this year and then perhaps buy him at a rather low price late in 2017 or 2018 if he shows talent or they get a better situation on offense.

40.) RB Wayne Gallman, New York Giants

Gallman was a 3 year starter for one of the premier college teams and landed with a team where he could end up starting at some point this year. I won’t be surprised if he gets taken in the late 2nd of some rookie drafts. However, looking a little deeper shows a player that doesn’t really have much to offer. Despite starting for the national champs, he numbers were not great outside of 17 touchdowns. His 4.9 YPC was well below average for an NFL prospect and also dropped off from his Sophomore year which you never like to see. When Clemson needed him most, he pretty much never stepped up. 9 carries for 34 yards when the Tigers were nearly upset by Troy. 18 for 36 in the lone loss of the season to Pittsburgh (although he did score 3 touchdowns). Lastly 18 carries for 46 yards against Alabama. Of course Alabama shut down plenty of talented running backs so make of that what you will. At the combine he did not improve his draft stock either. Gallman ran a 4.60 and finished in the bottom 50% in every drill except the bench press and broad jump. By drafting Gallman the Giants seem to have put value on Gallman playing against some of the toughest competition. If you draft Gallman it will be on the hope he starts some games this year and I’d rather look for someone with more talent but less opportunity.

41.) WR Mack Hollins, Philadelphia Eagles

Now into the 4th round you can probably guess what I like about Mack Hollins. He has the perfect size speed combo at 6’4” with a 4.53 in the 40. That led to a career yards per catch of 20.6. However he fell due to a broken collarbone in 2016 as well as an injury at the combine. Even before the broken collarbone he was not having a great senior season. He definitely needs to become more refined as a receiver as well, having maxed out at 35 catches in a year at North Carolina. He was a deep threat specialist and it remains to be seen if he can become anything more in the NFL. He also joins a very crowded receiver corps with Alshon, Jmatt and Torrey Smith at the top. I have to think he can at least pass DGB and Agholor for #4 in 2017.

42.) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Drafted in the early 3rd, 69th overall (nice), Kupp is a very divisive player in the dynasty community. As you can see, I am on the low end with him. He was incredibly productive all 4 years of college but never improved a whole lot from his freshman year. He is seen as a polished route runner. In 2016 he was 23 years old and dominating FCS competition. I was skeptical then and after a very poor combine and poor landing spot with the Rams, I am pretty much all out on Kupp. If he does fall to the late 3rd or early 4th, he would be a nice pick because of draft investment, but that is the only thing I like about him.

43.) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers

I’ve seen some growing Jamaal Williams hype lately and it’s not entirely undeserved. Williams was very productive in college while playing against decent competition at BYU. He might have been drafted earlier if not for a dismal combine where he excelled in the broad jump (123”) but was awful pretty much everywhere else. At 6’0” his 212 lbs is a rather slender frame for RB. If you’ve read my earlier round articles you already know I think he just doesn’t stack up to rookie teammate Aaron Jones. Of course, they both also have to beat out Ty Montgomery who I really like as well!

44.) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

How could I have Watson so low? Especially compared to Mahomes and Kizer who are less likely to start right away. The answer is simple - I just don’t think Watson will be very good in the NFL. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Quarterback is for me easily the hardest position to project. One of the most damning statistics comes from the great @AllbrightNFL's QB spreadsheet. Ben ranks QBs and has a pretty good track record doing so. One of his main attributes is QB ball velocity. 55 MPH is his threshold for a draftable QB. Brad Kaaya and Nathan Peterman were off the list at 53 MPH. Deshaun Watson was charted at a paltry 49 MPH. He has data going back to 2008. The most successful QBs at 50 and under are Tyrod Taylor (50 MPH) and Mike Glennon (49 MPH). Tyrod is of course heavily aided by his mobility. Deshaun will move around but he will not be nearly the running QB that Tyrod was. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. For 2QB leagues he would probably vault to the late 2nd round by virtue of being a likely starter, but in 1QB leagues where starting QBs are not a scarce commodity I will gladly pass. I’d be totally okay whiffing on Watson but I’ll let someone else take that chance.

 45.) RB James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Conner is another one of my favorites that I won’t be drafting, but am excited to see his career play out. At 6’1” 233 lbs, Conner dominated the ACC as a true sophomore in 2014. Then as I’m sure you know by now, he was diagnosed with cancer in 2015. The fact that he was even able to return to the team is awesome, but to step in and put up big numbers? It’s an absolutely incredible story.  The highlight would undoubtedly have to be his 187 yard 2 TD performance in a victory against eventual champion Clemson. He did start off the season pretty slowly and that’s understandable. When, if ever was he truly back to 100%? It’s hard to say. All we know for certain are the numbers we have. He continued to be a bruiser and scored 20 touchdowns but is very slow at 4.65. His bench press numbers were fine but not great. The biggest hindrance to his value is surely the fact that he got drafted by the Steelers. Le’veon Bell has had some injuries and has even been suspended but he is one of the very best in the game. That coupled with his below average athleticism has me staying away. It’s very possible he has a lot of room for growth still but I’d rather find out while he is on someone else’s team.

46.) WR Josh Malone, Cincinnati Bengals

Much like Westbrook, Malone is a guy I would have liked a lot more if he either went a round or two earlier in the draft or at least went to a team with a clearer path to targets. As it stands, he is firmly behind AJ Green and John Ross and will battle Brandon Lafell and Tyler Boyd for any sort of relevancy in 2017. Most likely he will have a very quiet rookie season. That said….this guy really checks off a lot of the boxes I look for in my prospects. For starters he is a speed demon and ran a 4.40. He also has excellent size to match at 6’3” and 208 lbs. His 50-972-11 line led Tennessee in all three categories and even had a very respectable 5 for 61 against Alabama. He had a 5-120-1 line against Nebraska in the Vols bowl game. Lastly he is just 21 years old. I struggle to understand why he fell to 128th overall in the draft. Digging a little deeper, Pro Football Focus really made him out to be a raw receiver and questioned his effort. He reminds me a lot of Chris Conley. A great guy to have on the bottom of your roster with potential to break out down the line if things work out. (I’m still rostering Conley in a couple leagues)

47.) WR Ryan Switzer, Dallas Cowboys

That brings us to Ryan Switzer who is in the same vein as Trent Taylor. In fact at 5’8” 181 lbs they are identical size and right next to each other in the 2017 SPARQ rankings. In Switzer’s favor he was drafted more than a full round earlier and played for UNC in a power-5 conference where he led the team in catches and yards with a 96-1112-6 line. He’s also a little younger and does have the slight edge in SPARQ, notably coming in faster at 4.51. Where Switzer falters is his stats. He only had one year of elite numbers to Taylor’s two (with a strong 3rd season as well). Switzer definitely faced top level competition more often but Taylor’s numbers are just so much better and as I pointed out, Taylor was at least decent against the better opponents. Perhaps more importantly, there is no immediate role for Switzer to step into. While Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are nothing special, I don’t see Switzer moving ahead of them in year one. Long term there is definitely opportunity, but it’s no guarantee he will secure one of those roles.

48.) WR De’Angelo Yancey, Green Bay Packers

Yancey is one of my favorite under the radar players. He is 6’2” 220 lbs so he has great size and he was very productive, leading the big ten in yards per catch in 2016 with a line of 49-951-10 at Purdue. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and also crushed the bench press. He flew under the radar mostly thanks to playing for an awful Purdue team that went 3-9 and while they did throw for a lot they were pretty bad at it outside of Yancey. He wasn’t drafted until the late 5th but I still expected his landing spot to catch more attention than it did. I suppose with Jordy, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb as the clear trio at the top, a likely insignificant role in 2017 for a late draft pick isn’t worth much more than a tiny blip. I still think Yancey is intriguing. Jordy is very much on the old side for a receiver and Randall Cobb could be a cut after 2017. Cobb has one of the biggest contracts for a receiver and hasn’t come close to meeting his pay. Another season that Cobb toils around 7-800 yards and he would be a cap casualty. The long-term path to targets is not nearly as bad as many seem to believe. Yancey is definitely a guy I see myself grabbing in the late 4th, though he might end up being a regretted cut when my leagues downsize at the end of the preseason. 

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That wraps up my 4 round rookie draft rankings! Thanks to all who took the time to read through them. There are still a handful of players that are worth talking about beyond these 48, so I will likely be posting another article or two looking at some additional prospects to either consider drafting or grabbing on the waiver afterwards. As we know in dynasty - there is never an end to the adjusting of the bottom of your roster. If you aren’t continually on the prowl for an improvement on the worst player on your roster, you’ve lost!

Sources for all 4 rounds:

www.pro-football-reference.com / www.sports-reference.com/cfb - I seriously can’t imagine looking up statistics without these two tremendous sites.

www.playerprofiler.com - Mostly my go-to source for college dominator ratings, they also provide an excellent snapshot of athleticism for prospects as well as plenty of in-depth stats for NFL players.

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ - SPARQ scores. Use these over xSPARQ on player profiler as they are the actual SPARQ rankings!

www.mockdraftable.com - I used to avoid this site but at some point they updated to a much nicer looking simplistic design. Detailed spider charts on size and athleticism for all combine players and plenty of non-combine pro days as well!

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 1st Round

Some of you have already drafted, immediately following the NFL draft. Others wait until after the preseason which can both genuinely and deceptively boost a player’s stock. For my leagues I like to do the draft in early June. The dust settles on the rookies and it gives us time to consider what their roles will be. So with my drafts coming up, I decided to release my rankings with some brief analysis. I was a little hesitant knowing some of my league mates will read this but I’ve really been itching to get some content out there.

I think it's important to discuss the factors I value for my rankings. Probably first and foremost is draft investment. If a team likes you enough to take a player in the first or second, they probably want to feature that player pretty heavily. The same goes for players undrafted or late in the draft. It is very very hard to end up being successful after all 32 teams have passed on you several times. Second I look at college production. In general, very few players that weren't stars in college end up being more productive in the NFL. I prefer to use College Dominator which looks at a percent of the team's yards that a player accounted for. I also prefer power-5 conference production. However I will make exceptions like with my #1 player this year.

I also find myself valuing landing spot and initial opportunity more and more. Guys like Todd Gurley and Will Fuller are two examples of players I really like but their team really hampered their 2016 production. In general if a guy doesn't have great opportunity in year one, his value will fall even though it is common for players to struggle as rookies, or even in their second year. Next would be athleticism. You can succeed in the NFL without being a top athlete (see Jarvis Landry) but players that are fast, agile and strong tend to have a higher success rate. I love a good combination of size and speed and I also look at SPARQ scores for a better idea of a player's overall athleticism. Lastly, age-adjusted production is something I keep in mind. There is a big difference between a guy putting up eye-popping numbers at 20 years old vs 23 years old (I'm looking at you Cooper Kupp).

Final note: I don't watch tape. I will sometimes be watching games live and form opinions from that but in general I trust a combination of the factor listed above. It's led me to some pretty nice success looking for rookies over the past few years.

1.) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

After keeping Leonard Fournette in this spot pretty much since the 2016 college season was underway, I finally relented shortly after the NFL draft completed. Basically it comes down to landing spot and situation. Both are immensely talented but Corey Davis lands in an offense that is just better in every way. He’s likely to play like a star in year one but he should have immediate impact and be a long term fantasy starter. For year one I expect somewhere around 100 targets and between 800-1000 yards. In the future I see multiple top 15 seasons from Davis.

2.) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon on the team, Fournette should immediately become the bellcow back with 200+ carries. That said, there is a lot more room for failure than with Zeke Elliott last year behind a sterling offensive line. Worst-case scenario, Fournette could be 2016 Todd Gurley with less touches. Gurley was in a horrendous offensive situation and it led to 3.2 YPC and 6 TDs despite over 300 touches. Best case is probably not far off from Zeke - 275 carries, 1400+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. I definitely believe the Jaguars offense as a whole is far better than the Rams were last year and so I’m more optimistic. Fournette could definitely finish top 10 as a rookie.

3.) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

While everyone else seems to be gravitating towards Joe Mixon here, I remain very bullish on CMC. I think he has the highest floor of any rookie in this draft. He’s very athletic, very productive in college and very young - he does not turn 21 for another few weeks. The main knock against him is that he is small (5’11”, 202 lbs) and awful in the bench press so there is some worry about whether he will be able to keep going after first contact and whether he will get hurt. I think he makes up for this concern with his elusiveness - he caught 99 passes in 37 games with 12.2 yards per catch. I think he is a perfect fit for the Panthers who have desperately needed a short game passing option. He should get 150+ carries and 50 receptions as a rookie. I have a very hard time seeing him below 1000 yards from scrimmage and if his catching ability is as good as I think it is, there is room for a good bit more.

4.) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Mixon checks off all the same boxes that CMC does and is also more of a true feature back size. However he is a big question mark off the field and it is up to each person to decide how much they want to factor that in. Falling to the middle of the second round as a result, he fell to a team that already has two decent (or perhaps, not horrible) backs in place. As a result I think he may face some of the same problems that Derrick Henry did in year one competing for touches with DeMarco Murray. Gio and Hill are definitely not on the same level, but Gio will most likely remain the top 3rd down back on the team. Hill is coming off back-to-back sub 4.0 YPC seasons but he does have 30 touchdowns in his three years with the Bengals. I expect Hill to vulture some touchdowns in 2017. The talent is very real but there are more question marks that keep him behind CMC

5.) WR Mike Williams, San Diego Chargers

Williams is a player that has seen his draft stock fall over the last two months. This despite a strong championship game against Alabama, perfect WR1 size and being drafted 7th overall. The concerns are Philip Rivers being old and Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams already being in place for the Chargers. However Keenan Allen has yet to play a full season and is now coming off a torn ACL. Despite the general success rate of returns from ACL injuries, it is still not wise to assume Keenan will be 100% in 2017. Tyrell had a fine season but is not someone I (or the Chargers, clearly) fully trust. If Mike Williams is as good as the Chargers believe, he will have no problem making a year one impact. If you are picking 5 or 6 and you let him slide past you, there is a strong chance you will come to regret that move.

6.) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants

Surprised? Don’t be. Evan Engram is the best fit for his team of the 1st round tight ends. At 6’3” 234 lbs he is very undersized for a tight end. A tight end that is expected to block anyway. In Ben McAdoo’s pass heavy offense it is crystal clear to me that Engram will be utilized in much the same manner as Jordan Reed. Making up for his size, Engram has 4.42 speed which is just insane for a guy that is as big as he is. Engram was also very productive in college, leading his Rebels in receptions, rec yards and TDs as a senior. I think he makes an immediate impact, although the presence of three quality WRs will limit him in 2017. He should still be able to bring in 600+ yards which would be excellent for a tight end. If/when Brandon Marshall leaves the team, Engram will really blossom.

7.) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Howard is also a tremendous tight end prospect and his 4.51 speed at 6’6” 251 lbs is just as if not even more impressive than Engram’s. The main knock I have is that he wasn’t super productive in college. Sure Alabama didn’t pass as much, but even when adjusting for that his numbers don’t really dazzle. He may be a better NFL player than fantasy player. With Mike Evans and Desean Jackson around, I expect those two to be the centerpieces of this offense in 2017. Cameron Brate may even stay ahead of Howard in year one. Long term I do think Howard becomes a quality fantasy player but it will likely take a little longer than Engram. Greg Olsen - a comparable player in terms of size, speed and college production - was a top ten fantasy tight end in his second and third years but only barely. He did not break out until his second year in Carolina and his sixth year in the NFL. Thankfully, Howard is in a better position with a young franchise QB and stud WR on the team.

8.) WRJohn Ross, Cincinnati Bengals

The fastest player ever recorded at the combine, Ross is a super exciting player for that alone. The same arguments about Mike Williams’ draft capital can be made here. You do not draft a guy in the 1st round without big plans for him, and that is only more true for a top ten pick! However unlike Williams’ I do have some more concerns. First and foremost, the Bengals have a much more reliable stud than Keenan Allen already in place. That being A.J. Green of course.  The other concern being John Ross’ injury history. He tore his ACL in 2015, but bounced back strong this past year. He also injured his shoulder in 2016 which required surgery that he put off until after the combine. In fact even at the combine he strained his calf muscle at the end of his record setting run. I have no doubt he has very real playmaking ability but he will need to prove his ability to stay on the field. 

9.) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Cook is a player where tape and athleticism are at odds. Cook was monstrously productive at Florida State and went into the combine as the #1 or #2 running back. However, outside of a 4.49, Cook’s combine numbers were disastrous. Mike Zimmer HATES playing rookies. I can’t find the tweet but I believe it was Graham Barfield who tweeted out the # of rookie snaps for each team in 2016 and the Vikings were far and away the lowest. I’d like to see this change but I’m not counting on it. With Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon, the Vikings could probably get away with limiting Cook’s touches this year as well. Between that and the concerns over his athleticism I will most likely not be getting Cook in any of my drafts.

10.) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills

One of my favorite players in this draft, Zay has an easy path to a first year impact. Even if we make a bold assumption that Sammy Watkins plays all 16 games and puts up big numbers, there is literally no other wide receiver on this roster that I would even want on my dynasty team. Corey ‘Philly’ Brown? Meh. Kolby Listenbee? Maybe as the last man on my roster. I see a very similar situation to Sterling Shepard last year. Except that Zay is bigger and more athletic and also just had one of the greatest college careers ever! The one knock against Zay is his paltry 11.1 yards per catch in college. Zay says it was the result of the system he played in and I buy it. I will not be surprised if Zay finishes among the top two for rookie receivers.

11.) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Godwin is probably the player among my top twelve that I feel the least certain about. Another super athlete with 4.42 speed, Godwin had big time numbers in 2015 but actually dropped off in ‘16 despite a more productive and pass-heavy offense behind redshirt sophomore Trace McSorley. Godwin is unlikely to have a big year one impact without injury. Even longer term, Mike Evans is going to stick around. O.J. Howard was also brought in. Desean Jackson is with the team at least through 2018, although they also have him on contract through 2019. So where does Godwin fit? The most probable scenario is that Tampa becomes a very pass heavy team and Desean Jackson slides back to WR3 in ‘18 and also Howard never totally emerges. Also if Jameis ends up being a truly elite talent, there could be room for everybody to succeed. Either way, I like the talent so much that I have him in my 1st round despite being very unsure of how he puts up numbers.

12.) TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

The last of three absolutely tremendous tight end prospects that were drafted in the first round, Njoku landed in easily the worst situation. His QBs for 2017 will be Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Brock Osweiler. Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman are the top targets. I would be very surprised if Njoku is able to have a significant impact this year as the #3 target with those QBs. However as a prospect he is worth taking here. He isn’t as fast as Engram or Howard but with a 4.64 40 he is still well above average. He is also a better all-around athlete with the second best SPARQ score among TEs. He had a whopping 16.6 yards per catch in college. Lastly while both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram will be 23 by season's end, Njoku doesn’t turn 21 until July. Njoku will definitely require a little more patience but is absolutely worth it.

Postscript: It’s been a while since I’ve written anything and it wasn’t easy getting back to it. I am definitely rusty. I just want to say thank you for following me on twitter even when I’m not delivering a whole lot of quality content. More importantly thank you for taking some of your valuable time to read this. I will be focusing on dynasty content going forward. I’m hoping to have plenty more dynasty content this year and it will definitely (hopefully) get better the more I write!

Week 17 WR Rankings

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. A.J. Green
3. Desean Jackson
4. Brandon Marshall
5. Pierre Garcon
6. Josh Gordon
7. Dez Bryant
8. Eric Decker
9. Torrey Smith
10. Jordy Nelson
11. Alshon Jeffery
12. Andre Johnson
13. Antonio Brown
14. Keenan Allen
15. Kendall Wright
16. Vincent Jackson
17. T.Y. Hilton
18. Roddy White
19. Julian Edelman
20. Anquan Boldin
21. Larry Fitzgerald
22. Mike Brown
23. Cordarrelle Patterson
24. Denarius Moore
25. Danny Amendola
26. Michael Crabtree
27. Riley Cooper
28. Mike Wallace
29. Ted Ginn
30. Marvin Jones
31. Kris Durham
32. Robert Woods
33. Golden Tate
34. Michael Floyd
35. Brandon LaFell
36. Jerrel Jernigan
37. Harry Douglas
38. Rod Streater
39. Brian Hartline
40. Greg Jennings
41. Doug Baldwin
42. Dwayne Bowe
43. Randall Cobb*
44. Griff Whalen
45. Nate Burleson
46. Eddie Royal
47. Rueben Randle
48. Marques Colston
49. Hakeem Nicks
50. Marlon Brown
51. James Jones
52. T.J. Graham
53. Emmanuel Sanders*
54. Nate Washington
55. Mohamed Sanu
56. DeAndre Hopkins
57. Terrance Williams
58. Kenny Stills
59. Andre Holmes
60. Da'Rick Rogers
61. Jerricho Cotchery
62. Donnie Avery
63. Dexter McCluster
64. Ace Sanders
65. Aldrick Robinson
66. Jarius Wright
67. Jeremy Kerley
68. David Nelson
69. Marquise Goodwin
70. Lance Moore
71. Jacoby Jones
72. Justin Hunter
73. Stedman Bailey
74. Santana Moss
75. Kevin Ogletree
76. Rishard Matthews
77. Santonio Holmes
78. Tiquan Underwood
79. Greg Little
80. Chris Givens