Some of you have already drafted, immediately following the NFL draft. Others wait until after the preseason which can both genuinely and deceptively boost a player’s stock. For my leagues I like to do the draft in early June. The dust settles on the rookies and it gives us time to consider what their roles will be. So with my drafts coming up, I decided to release my rankings with some brief analysis. I was a little hesitant knowing some of my league mates will read this but I’ve really been itching to get some content out there.
I think it's important to discuss the factors I value for my rankings. Probably first and foremost is draft investment. If a team likes you enough to take a player in the first or second, they probably want to feature that player pretty heavily. The same goes for players undrafted or late in the draft. It is very very hard to end up being successful after all 32 teams have passed on you several times. Second I look at college production. In general, very few players that weren't stars in college end up being more productive in the NFL. I prefer to use College Dominator which looks at a percent of the team's yards that a player accounted for. I also prefer power-5 conference production. However I will make exceptions like with my #1 player this year.
I also find myself valuing landing spot and initial opportunity more and more. Guys like Todd Gurley and Will Fuller are two examples of players I really like but their team really hampered their 2016 production. In general if a guy doesn't have great opportunity in year one, his value will fall even though it is common for players to struggle as rookies, or even in their second year. Next would be athleticism. You can succeed in the NFL without being a top athlete (see Jarvis Landry) but players that are fast, agile and strong tend to have a higher success rate. I love a good combination of size and speed and I also look at SPARQ scores for a better idea of a player's overall athleticism. Lastly, age-adjusted production is something I keep in mind. There is a big difference between a guy putting up eye-popping numbers at 20 years old vs 23 years old (I'm looking at you Cooper Kupp).
Final note: I don't watch tape. I will sometimes be watching games live and form opinions from that but in general I trust a combination of the factor listed above. It's led me to some pretty nice success looking for rookies over the past few years.
After keeping Leonard Fournette in this spot pretty much since the 2016 college season was underway, I finally relented shortly after the NFL draft completed. Basically it comes down to landing spot and situation. Both are immensely talented but Corey Davis lands in an offense that is just better in every way. He’s likely to play like a star in year one but he should have immediate impact and be a long term fantasy starter. For year one I expect somewhere around 100 targets and between 800-1000 yards. In the future I see multiple top 15 seasons from Davis.
Despite Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon on the team, Fournette should immediately become the bellcow back with 200+ carries. That said, there is a lot more room for failure than with Zeke Elliott last year behind a sterling offensive line. Worst-case scenario, Fournette could be 2016 Todd Gurley with less touches. Gurley was in a horrendous offensive situation and it led to 3.2 YPC and 6 TDs despite over 300 touches. Best case is probably not far off from Zeke - 275 carries, 1400+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. I definitely believe the Jaguars offense as a whole is far better than the Rams were last year and so I’m more optimistic. Fournette could definitely finish top 10 as a rookie.
While everyone else seems to be gravitating towards Joe Mixon here, I remain very bullish on CMC. I think he has the highest floor of any rookie in this draft. He’s very athletic, very productive in college and very young - he does not turn 21 for another few weeks. The main knock against him is that he is small (5’11”, 202 lbs) and awful in the bench press so there is some worry about whether he will be able to keep going after first contact and whether he will get hurt. I think he makes up for this concern with his elusiveness - he caught 99 passes in 37 games with 12.2 yards per catch. I think he is a perfect fit for the Panthers who have desperately needed a short game passing option. He should get 150+ carries and 50 receptions as a rookie. I have a very hard time seeing him below 1000 yards from scrimmage and if his catching ability is as good as I think it is, there is room for a good bit more.
Mixon checks off all the same boxes that CMC does and is also more of a true feature back size. However he is a big question mark off the field and it is up to each person to decide how much they want to factor that in. Falling to the middle of the second round as a result, he fell to a team that already has two decent (or perhaps, not horrible) backs in place. As a result I think he may face some of the same problems that Derrick Henry did in year one competing for touches with DeMarco Murray. Gio and Hill are definitely not on the same level, but Gio will most likely remain the top 3rd down back on the team. Hill is coming off back-to-back sub 4.0 YPC seasons but he does have 30 touchdowns in his three years with the Bengals. I expect Hill to vulture some touchdowns in 2017. The talent is very real but there are more question marks that keep him behind CMC
Williams is a player that has seen his draft stock fall over the last two months. This despite a strong championship game against Alabama, perfect WR1 size and being drafted 7th overall. The concerns are Philip Rivers being old and Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams already being in place for the Chargers. However Keenan Allen has yet to play a full season and is now coming off a torn ACL. Despite the general success rate of returns from ACL injuries, it is still not wise to assume Keenan will be 100% in 2017. Tyrell had a fine season but is not someone I (or the Chargers, clearly) fully trust. If Mike Williams is as good as the Chargers believe, he will have no problem making a year one impact. If you are picking 5 or 6 and you let him slide past you, there is a strong chance you will come to regret that move.
Surprised? Don’t be. Evan Engram is the best fit for his team of the 1st round tight ends. At 6’3” 234 lbs he is very undersized for a tight end. A tight end that is expected to block anyway. In Ben McAdoo’s pass heavy offense it is crystal clear to me that Engram will be utilized in much the same manner as Jordan Reed. Making up for his size, Engram has 4.42 speed which is just insane for a guy that is as big as he is. Engram was also very productive in college, leading his Rebels in receptions, rec yards and TDs as a senior. I think he makes an immediate impact, although the presence of three quality WRs will limit him in 2017. He should still be able to bring in 600+ yards which would be excellent for a tight end. If/when Brandon Marshall leaves the team, Engram will really blossom.
Howard is also a tremendous tight end prospect and his 4.51 speed at 6’6” 251 lbs is just as if not even more impressive than Engram’s. The main knock I have is that he wasn’t super productive in college. Sure Alabama didn’t pass as much, but even when adjusting for that his numbers don’t really dazzle. He may be a better NFL player than fantasy player. With Mike Evans and Desean Jackson around, I expect those two to be the centerpieces of this offense in 2017. Cameron Brate may even stay ahead of Howard in year one. Long term I do think Howard becomes a quality fantasy player but it will likely take a little longer than Engram. Greg Olsen - a comparable player in terms of size, speed and college production - was a top ten fantasy tight end in his second and third years but only barely. He did not break out until his second year in Carolina and his sixth year in the NFL. Thankfully, Howard is in a better position with a young franchise QB and stud WR on the team.
The fastest player ever recorded at the combine, Ross is a super exciting player for that alone. The same arguments about Mike Williams’ draft capital can be made here. You do not draft a guy in the 1st round without big plans for him, and that is only more true for a top ten pick! However unlike Williams’ I do have some more concerns. First and foremost, the Bengals have a much more reliable stud than Keenan Allen already in place. That being A.J. Green of course. The other concern being John Ross’ injury history. He tore his ACL in 2015, but bounced back strong this past year. He also injured his shoulder in 2016 which required surgery that he put off until after the combine. In fact even at the combine he strained his calf muscle at the end of his record setting run. I have no doubt he has very real playmaking ability but he will need to prove his ability to stay on the field.
Cook is a player where tape and athleticism are at odds. Cook was monstrously productive at Florida State and went into the combine as the #1 or #2 running back. However, outside of a 4.49, Cook’s combine numbers were disastrous. Mike Zimmer HATES playing rookies. I can’t find the tweet but I believe it was Graham Barfield who tweeted out the # of rookie snaps for each team in 2016 and the Vikings were far and away the lowest. I’d like to see this change but I’m not counting on it. With Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon, the Vikings could probably get away with limiting Cook’s touches this year as well. Between that and the concerns over his athleticism I will most likely not be getting Cook in any of my drafts.
One of my favorite players in this draft, Zay has an easy path to a first year impact. Even if we make a bold assumption that Sammy Watkins plays all 16 games and puts up big numbers, there is literally no other wide receiver on this roster that I would even want on my dynasty team. Corey ‘Philly’ Brown? Meh. Kolby Listenbee? Maybe as the last man on my roster. I see a very similar situation to Sterling Shepard last year. Except that Zay is bigger and more athletic and also just had one of the greatest college careers ever! The one knock against Zay is his paltry 11.1 yards per catch in college. Zay says it was the result of the system he played in and I buy it. I will not be surprised if Zay finishes among the top two for rookie receivers.
Godwin is probably the player among my top twelve that I feel the least certain about. Another super athlete with 4.42 speed, Godwin had big time numbers in 2015 but actually dropped off in ‘16 despite a more productive and pass-heavy offense behind redshirt sophomore Trace McSorley. Godwin is unlikely to have a big year one impact without injury. Even longer term, Mike Evans is going to stick around. O.J. Howard was also brought in. Desean Jackson is with the team at least through 2018, although they also have him on contract through 2019. So where does Godwin fit? The most probable scenario is that Tampa becomes a very pass heavy team and Desean Jackson slides back to WR3 in ‘18 and also Howard never totally emerges. Also if Jameis ends up being a truly elite talent, there could be room for everybody to succeed. Either way, I like the talent so much that I have him in my 1st round despite being very unsure of how he puts up numbers.
The last of three absolutely tremendous tight end prospects that were drafted in the first round, Njoku landed in easily the worst situation. His QBs for 2017 will be Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Brock Osweiler. Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman are the top targets. I would be very surprised if Njoku is able to have a significant impact this year as the #3 target with those QBs. However as a prospect he is worth taking here. He isn’t as fast as Engram or Howard but with a 4.64 40 he is still well above average. He is also a better all-around athlete with the second best SPARQ score among TEs. He had a whopping 16.6 yards per catch in college. Lastly while both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram will be 23 by season's end, Njoku doesn’t turn 21 until July. Njoku will definitely require a little more patience but is absolutely worth it.
Postscript: It’s been a while since I’ve written anything and it wasn’t easy getting back to it. I am definitely rusty. I just want to say thank you for following me on twitter even when I’m not delivering a whole lot of quality content. More importantly thank you for taking some of your valuable time to read this. I will be focusing on dynasty content going forward. I’m hoping to have plenty more dynasty content this year and it will definitely (hopefully) get better the more I write!
I think it's important to discuss the factors I value for my rankings. Probably first and foremost is draft investment. If a team likes you enough to take a player in the first or second, they probably want to feature that player pretty heavily. The same goes for players undrafted or late in the draft. It is very very hard to end up being successful after all 32 teams have passed on you several times. Second I look at college production. In general, very few players that weren't stars in college end up being more productive in the NFL. I prefer to use College Dominator which looks at a percent of the team's yards that a player accounted for. I also prefer power-5 conference production. However I will make exceptions like with my #1 player this year.
I also find myself valuing landing spot and initial opportunity more and more. Guys like Todd Gurley and Will Fuller are two examples of players I really like but their team really hampered their 2016 production. In general if a guy doesn't have great opportunity in year one, his value will fall even though it is common for players to struggle as rookies, or even in their second year. Next would be athleticism. You can succeed in the NFL without being a top athlete (see Jarvis Landry) but players that are fast, agile and strong tend to have a higher success rate. I love a good combination of size and speed and I also look at SPARQ scores for a better idea of a player's overall athleticism. Lastly, age-adjusted production is something I keep in mind. There is a big difference between a guy putting up eye-popping numbers at 20 years old vs 23 years old (I'm looking at you Cooper Kupp).
Final note: I don't watch tape. I will sometimes be watching games live and form opinions from that but in general I trust a combination of the factor listed above. It's led me to some pretty nice success looking for rookies over the past few years.
1.) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
After keeping Leonard Fournette in this spot pretty much since the 2016 college season was underway, I finally relented shortly after the NFL draft completed. Basically it comes down to landing spot and situation. Both are immensely talented but Corey Davis lands in an offense that is just better in every way. He’s likely to play like a star in year one but he should have immediate impact and be a long term fantasy starter. For year one I expect somewhere around 100 targets and between 800-1000 yards. In the future I see multiple top 15 seasons from Davis.
2.) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon on the team, Fournette should immediately become the bellcow back with 200+ carries. That said, there is a lot more room for failure than with Zeke Elliott last year behind a sterling offensive line. Worst-case scenario, Fournette could be 2016 Todd Gurley with less touches. Gurley was in a horrendous offensive situation and it led to 3.2 YPC and 6 TDs despite over 300 touches. Best case is probably not far off from Zeke - 275 carries, 1400+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. I definitely believe the Jaguars offense as a whole is far better than the Rams were last year and so I’m more optimistic. Fournette could definitely finish top 10 as a rookie.
3.) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
While everyone else seems to be gravitating towards Joe Mixon here, I remain very bullish on CMC. I think he has the highest floor of any rookie in this draft. He’s very athletic, very productive in college and very young - he does not turn 21 for another few weeks. The main knock against him is that he is small (5’11”, 202 lbs) and awful in the bench press so there is some worry about whether he will be able to keep going after first contact and whether he will get hurt. I think he makes up for this concern with his elusiveness - he caught 99 passes in 37 games with 12.2 yards per catch. I think he is a perfect fit for the Panthers who have desperately needed a short game passing option. He should get 150+ carries and 50 receptions as a rookie. I have a very hard time seeing him below 1000 yards from scrimmage and if his catching ability is as good as I think it is, there is room for a good bit more.
4.) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon checks off all the same boxes that CMC does and is also more of a true feature back size. However he is a big question mark off the field and it is up to each person to decide how much they want to factor that in. Falling to the middle of the second round as a result, he fell to a team that already has two decent (or perhaps, not horrible) backs in place. As a result I think he may face some of the same problems that Derrick Henry did in year one competing for touches with DeMarco Murray. Gio and Hill are definitely not on the same level, but Gio will most likely remain the top 3rd down back on the team. Hill is coming off back-to-back sub 4.0 YPC seasons but he does have 30 touchdowns in his three years with the Bengals. I expect Hill to vulture some touchdowns in 2017. The talent is very real but there are more question marks that keep him behind CMC
5.) WR Mike Williams, San Diego Chargers
Williams is a player that has seen his draft stock fall over the last two months. This despite a strong championship game against Alabama, perfect WR1 size and being drafted 7th overall. The concerns are Philip Rivers being old and Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams already being in place for the Chargers. However Keenan Allen has yet to play a full season and is now coming off a torn ACL. Despite the general success rate of returns from ACL injuries, it is still not wise to assume Keenan will be 100% in 2017. Tyrell had a fine season but is not someone I (or the Chargers, clearly) fully trust. If Mike Williams is as good as the Chargers believe, he will have no problem making a year one impact. If you are picking 5 or 6 and you let him slide past you, there is a strong chance you will come to regret that move.
6.) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants
Surprised? Don’t be. Evan Engram is the best fit for his team of the 1st round tight ends. At 6’3” 234 lbs he is very undersized for a tight end. A tight end that is expected to block anyway. In Ben McAdoo’s pass heavy offense it is crystal clear to me that Engram will be utilized in much the same manner as Jordan Reed. Making up for his size, Engram has 4.42 speed which is just insane for a guy that is as big as he is. Engram was also very productive in college, leading his Rebels in receptions, rec yards and TDs as a senior. I think he makes an immediate impact, although the presence of three quality WRs will limit him in 2017. He should still be able to bring in 600+ yards which would be excellent for a tight end. If/when Brandon Marshall leaves the team, Engram will really blossom.
7.) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Howard is also a tremendous tight end prospect and his 4.51 speed at 6’6” 251 lbs is just as if not even more impressive than Engram’s. The main knock I have is that he wasn’t super productive in college. Sure Alabama didn’t pass as much, but even when adjusting for that his numbers don’t really dazzle. He may be a better NFL player than fantasy player. With Mike Evans and Desean Jackson around, I expect those two to be the centerpieces of this offense in 2017. Cameron Brate may even stay ahead of Howard in year one. Long term I do think Howard becomes a quality fantasy player but it will likely take a little longer than Engram. Greg Olsen - a comparable player in terms of size, speed and college production - was a top ten fantasy tight end in his second and third years but only barely. He did not break out until his second year in Carolina and his sixth year in the NFL. Thankfully, Howard is in a better position with a young franchise QB and stud WR on the team.
8.) WRJohn Ross, Cincinnati Bengals
The fastest player ever recorded at the combine, Ross is a super exciting player for that alone. The same arguments about Mike Williams’ draft capital can be made here. You do not draft a guy in the 1st round without big plans for him, and that is only more true for a top ten pick! However unlike Williams’ I do have some more concerns. First and foremost, the Bengals have a much more reliable stud than Keenan Allen already in place. That being A.J. Green of course. The other concern being John Ross’ injury history. He tore his ACL in 2015, but bounced back strong this past year. He also injured his shoulder in 2016 which required surgery that he put off until after the combine. In fact even at the combine he strained his calf muscle at the end of his record setting run. I have no doubt he has very real playmaking ability but he will need to prove his ability to stay on the field.
9.) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook is a player where tape and athleticism are at odds. Cook was monstrously productive at Florida State and went into the combine as the #1 or #2 running back. However, outside of a 4.49, Cook’s combine numbers were disastrous. Mike Zimmer HATES playing rookies. I can’t find the tweet but I believe it was Graham Barfield who tweeted out the # of rookie snaps for each team in 2016 and the Vikings were far and away the lowest. I’d like to see this change but I’m not counting on it. With Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon, the Vikings could probably get away with limiting Cook’s touches this year as well. Between that and the concerns over his athleticism I will most likely not be getting Cook in any of my drafts.
10.) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills
One of my favorite players in this draft, Zay has an easy path to a first year impact. Even if we make a bold assumption that Sammy Watkins plays all 16 games and puts up big numbers, there is literally no other wide receiver on this roster that I would even want on my dynasty team. Corey ‘Philly’ Brown? Meh. Kolby Listenbee? Maybe as the last man on my roster. I see a very similar situation to Sterling Shepard last year. Except that Zay is bigger and more athletic and also just had one of the greatest college careers ever! The one knock against Zay is his paltry 11.1 yards per catch in college. Zay says it was the result of the system he played in and I buy it. I will not be surprised if Zay finishes among the top two for rookie receivers.
11.) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin is probably the player among my top twelve that I feel the least certain about. Another super athlete with 4.42 speed, Godwin had big time numbers in 2015 but actually dropped off in ‘16 despite a more productive and pass-heavy offense behind redshirt sophomore Trace McSorley. Godwin is unlikely to have a big year one impact without injury. Even longer term, Mike Evans is going to stick around. O.J. Howard was also brought in. Desean Jackson is with the team at least through 2018, although they also have him on contract through 2019. So where does Godwin fit? The most probable scenario is that Tampa becomes a very pass heavy team and Desean Jackson slides back to WR3 in ‘18 and also Howard never totally emerges. Also if Jameis ends up being a truly elite talent, there could be room for everybody to succeed. Either way, I like the talent so much that I have him in my 1st round despite being very unsure of how he puts up numbers.
12.) TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
The last of three absolutely tremendous tight end prospects that were drafted in the first round, Njoku landed in easily the worst situation. His QBs for 2017 will be Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Brock Osweiler. Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman are the top targets. I would be very surprised if Njoku is able to have a significant impact this year as the #3 target with those QBs. However as a prospect he is worth taking here. He isn’t as fast as Engram or Howard but with a 4.64 40 he is still well above average. He is also a better all-around athlete with the second best SPARQ score among TEs. He had a whopping 16.6 yards per catch in college. Lastly while both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram will be 23 by season's end, Njoku doesn’t turn 21 until July. Njoku will definitely require a little more patience but is absolutely worth it.
Postscript: It’s been a while since I’ve written anything and it wasn’t easy getting back to it. I am definitely rusty. I just want to say thank you for following me on twitter even when I’m not delivering a whole lot of quality content. More importantly thank you for taking some of your valuable time to read this. I will be focusing on dynasty content going forward. I’m hoping to have plenty more dynasty content this year and it will definitely (hopefully) get better the more I write!
Fantastic article Zach, glad your back to writing. Keep it up 💪
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