May 24, 2017

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 3rd Round

I think a few sleeper prospects may have crept into my 2nd round, the ones that I really like. The third round is a mix of guys I am lower than most on vs some more sleepers that I would love to get in this round. There is upside all the way through the third round but a lot of it comes with a lack of clear immediate opportunity or other issues (level of competition, athleticism and age). Identify a couple guys in this round that fit your preference in prospects and target them in the draft!

25.) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes is the QB of the future for the Chiefs. Key word there is ‘future’ as Mahomes is the most likely rookie to see zero playing time this year. To draft Mahomes would be a luxury, so you really have to be sold on his talent. He definitely has that. He is a gunslinger with a big time arm. His 60 MPH ball velocity is about as fast as it gets and he used that arm to lead the FBS in passing yards in 2016 and put up 77 pass TDs over the past two seasons. He has drawn comparisons to hall of fame gunslinger Brett Favre, so it’s no surprise offensive guru Andy Reid liked him. Reid was with the Packers for the early days of Favre’s career and helped develop him. I mentioned it earlier with Kareem Hunt but Reid is great at working with a player’s style rather than forcing them into his scheme. The Chiefs may have a conservative pass attack with Alex Smith, but that will absolutely change for the Mahomes era. The Chiefs already have a big touchdown threat in Travis Kelce and elite speed with Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley so this offense is ready for Mahomes, and they will likely add more in the future. Mahomes is set up to succeed. He just requires patience from a dynasty owner.

26.) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are without a doubt going to be a pass first team going forward. I don’t think any RB on the team will be particularly successful in 2017. However I also see the Bucs as one of the teams with wide open opportunity at the position. Doug Martin is kind of an unknown for 2017, Charles Sims isn’t very good, Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers are just guys. McNichols could lead this team in touches as a rookie. He has nice speed (4.49) and good combine numbers across the board. He was highly productive in two years as a starter with Boise State and finished 2016 with the second most touchdowns from scrimmage (27). He also caught 103 passes in college so he can kind of do it all. What’s not to like? He was only a 5th rounder much like Aaron Jones in the round 2 article, but he didn’t have injury issues keeping him down. McNichols 5.4 YPC was not great, especially outside of the power-5. When facing tougher competition he didn’t step up. This was most clear in his final game as a collegiate player with a very poor performance against Baylor in the Cactus Bowl (70 YFS, 2.4 YPC). He has a great opportunity but he will need to prove he can handle the NFL level.

27.) WR Amara Darboh, Seattle Seahawks

You may see Darboh and roll your eyes at another Seahawk WR pick. Dating back to 2013 here are the receivers the Seahawks have drafted: Chris Harper, ‘13 123rd overall & never caught a pass in the NFL. Paul Richardson, ‘14 45th overall perhaps has some talent but landed on IR in both of his first two seasons and didn’t look the same in 2016. He was taken ahead of Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry in the 2nd round alone. Kevin Norwood ‘14 123rd overall caught 9 passes and only lasted one year with Seahawks. Tyler Lockett, ‘15 69th overall. A fine player but thus far has not proven to be anything special and now recovering from a broken leg. Kenny Lawler, ‘16 243rd overall. Okay so this was at the end of the draft so we can forgive the fact that he has never been on the active roster. Alright that was your dynasty bonus, a review of recent Seahawks WR draftees. 4 busts and one Tyler Lockett who is definitely not a success but not a failure yet either. So that brings us to Darboh, taken 106th overall at the end of the 3rd round. I will now make a modest case for why Darboh has a better chance to succeed. Darboh has a great size/speed combination at 6’2”, 214lbs and 4.45 in the 40. He is pretty highly ranked in SPARQ score. Darboh also had a productive year for Michigan, leading the team in recs, rec yards and rec TDs. Although being the poor offense that Michigan was, his stat line of 57-862-7 just isn’t that sexy. What separates him from the recent WRs the Seahawks have drafted? He is the first receiver they’ve taken that has the whole package of size, athleticism and production. His college numbers being what they were is the main reason I think he fell as far as he did (in addition to being older at 23 years old). I also think he fits a big need for the Seahawks and can replace the very bad Jermaine Kearse opposite Doug Baldwin on the outside. The Seahawks lack of success with WRs concerns me but they have a good QB and I happen to like this player so I’ll be somewhat optimistic with Darboh.

28.) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

It’s not often you get a 6’4”, 4.50 highly productive receiver that flies under the radar. Golladay is quickly gaining steam in the dynasty community but he is still not a top draft pick. I like his fit with the Lions where Golden Tate is very reliable but not a superstar and Marvin Jones had mixed results in year one. Stafford has transitioned into a less aggressive more consistent QB under OC Jim Bob Cooter but the Lions would definitely like someone who can at least fill a little bit of the void Calvin Johnson left at WR1. I think it is important to note that Golladay is one of the oldest rookies as he turns 24 in early November. He also faced almost no top competition and did not fare well when he did (Ohio State and Boise State in 2015). He likely will need a period of adjustment which is not great for a guy that is already older.

29.) TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams

Everett is an absolute beast, right up there athletically with the tight ends that are in my 1st round. He also has the college production to match, putting up a 49-714-4 line for a team that did not throw a whole lot. He just happened to do it at a smaller school and also fell to the Rams where I am not at all confident in Jared Goff. Everett is also undersized at 6’3” 239lbs and his 4.62 is good but nothing compared to Evan Engram! The fact remains that Everett is a very good prospect and despite landing with a less than ideal situation he’s worth taking at the beginning of the third. Expect a quiet year one with a chance for big things going forward.

30.) WR Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams

6’3”, fairly athletic and productive against tough competition, I am surprised Reynolds fell as far as he did in the draft (117th overall). It seems the biggest concern was his slender frame at just 194 lbs. He was an excellent deep threat with a line of 61-1039-12, good for 17 yards per catch. He scored a touchdown in all but two games in 2016 and saved his best for last when he put up a 12-154-2 line in the Texas Bowl against Kansas State. After falling in the draft, he also landed in one of my least favorite situations with the Rams. Should I have a pick in the middle of the 3rd, I’ll be hoping Sean McVay can improve that offense quickly because Reynolds is my favorite WR the Rams have.

31.) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Mack is both athletic and productive but fell to the end of the 4th round in the NFL draft. This was in part due to the fact that he did not lead his team in rushing despite 1,187 yards and a 6.8 YPC. His mobile QB stole the show from him! In addition he is a little undersized and didn’t do himself any favors in the bench press. I’m unconvinced he can thrive at the NFL level. He did go to the right spot with the Colts. Odds get higher every year that Gore finally hands over the reigns to someone new. If you are looking for an immediate contributor, I think Mack could be bumped up a little but I imagine they will add someone new next year as well.

32.) QB Deshone Kizer, Cleveland Browns

I have a love/hate relationship with Kizer. His numbers fell in 2016 and many feel he could have used another year in college but I can’t fault him for leaving. Notre Dame was a dumpster fire and Brian Kelly is Brian Kelly. (I am neither a Fighting Irish fan nor hater but I do not care for Brian Kelly) Kizer has prototypical size for a QB and solid ball velocity. While his numbers fell off and his 58.7% completion rate in 2016 is not good, he did still have 47 pass TDs to 19 interceptions in his two seasons. He definitely has the potential to start for several years in the NFL but the Browns will need to bring him along slowly.

33.) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia Eagles

It is easy to write off Pumphrey as too small (5’8”, 176lbs) but I love that he went to the team that rosters Darren Sproles and can work with one of the all-time great undersized backs. He was also massively productive in college with 2000+ YFS and 17+ touchdowns in three straight years. That is both a positive and a negative as he never missed a game in college, proving he can handle a lot despite his stature. However even appropriately sized players get hurt after so much work. It is definitely concerning to an extent. Also outside of a respectable 4.48 in the 40, he did not impress at the combine. His 5 reps of the bench press (0 percentile) is about what you would expect for Pumphrey but if you look back to Darren Sproles he actually crushed the bench press with an above average 23 reps. It would have been nice to see some surprising strength from Pumphrey. He will certainly be a risk to take in Dynasty. Expect him to mostly sit in 2017 and hopefully learn from watching how Sproles works.

34.) WR Chad Williams, Arizona Cardinals

Williams was an FCS star at Grambling State and put up an impressive line of 90-1337-11 as a senior. Obviously the competition was lacking but he did play against Arizona last year. The Wildcats were very bad but Williams had 13 receptions for 152 yards. For a team that was likely outmatched in many ways, that is very promising. It is also perhaps interesting to note that Williams was drafted late in the third round out of a small school much like his new teammate John Brown. While it is nice to see a little history of the Cardinals finding success in small school receivers, I should note these are two very different players. Williams is fast at 4.45 but not THAT fast. Williams enters a situation with an aging QB and no heir apparent which is not great. There is an opening as the top option in the pass game that he will most likely contend for with John Brown. There is upside here for sure.

35.) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago Bears

D-II Gronk as I like to call him, Shaheen is MASSIVE at 6’6” 278 lbs and surprisingly agile with respectable times in most of his combine drills. He was a touchdown machine with a line of 57-867-16. The issue is...it came at D-II Ashland University. Given that I put a premium on power-5 conference production over other FBS schools and give far less consideration to even FCS production, you can imagine I am very wary of Shaheen. The Bears clearly didn’t have any concerns, taking him 45th overall. That was right after Gerald Everett and well ahead of the previously mentioned Jonnu Smith. I am certain he will take some time to get used to the extreme change in level of competition. I mean, was anybody even willing to tackle a guy this size in D-II? Shaheen will be one of my favorites to watch his career play out, but for dynasty purposes I expect someone else to grab him first.

36.) TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Rounding out the 3rd round we have yet another tight end in this class that I love so much. I may have Kittle 36th overall but he is still very much worth looking into. Kittle is incredibly athletic and is the #1 ranked SPARQ TE for this year. However while he did have decent production after adjusting for the offense, Iowa passed so little in 2016 that Kittle finished with a line of 22-314-3 for the year and 48-737-10 in his college career. Those guys can succeed in the NFL but it's generally not great to put up such small numbers in college, even if it is mostly because of the offense. It should also be noted that he is on the old side and will turn 24 in October. Shanahan did not feature tight ends while in Atlanta but did bring out the best in Owen Daniels and Jordan Reed previously. As a Shanny fan I’m intrigued any time he brings in a new offensive weapon.

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