Back at it for the 2nd round! As I told my leaguemates, no secrets will remain. Check out the 1st round article if you want to see the factors I consider. This class is genuinely deep and there are players I like quite a lot into the 30s. Now that we are in the 2nd round I tried to list some more of the negatives when applicable. For the most part, the second round is a mix of guys with both opportunity and talent but missing a check mark or two that separates them from the first round talent.
13.) RB Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins
Perine is a player I am fairly uncomfortable about having up so high. Every year it seems like there is one player taken well outside the top 100 overall players that sneaks into the first round. Perine appears to be that guy this year, Kenneth Dixon was that guy last year. The negatives are easy to list with Perine. He is slow (4.65). His numbers dropped off in pretty much every meaningful way in each of his three collegiate seasons. This was in part due to missing multiple games in 2016 but more so a result of Joe Mixon being better. That still doesn’t account for a declining YPC though. So what are the positives? He did have an amazing freshman year that saw him set the all-time FBS single game rushing record (427 yards). The only other two FBS players to hit 400 yards are LaDainian Tomlinson and Melvin Gordon, so that is pretty sexy company. Perine is a big bruiser at 5’11” and crushed the bench press, so this is a guy that you expect to power through defenders. Despite concerns of being #2 on his college team and a drop off in numbers he was still very productive. It’s hard to hold it against him for playing on the same team with such a talented player as Mixon. The big reason why Perine is this high though is an incredibly easy path to leading his team in carries. The Redskins are a pretty good offense and I like Jay Gruden. The top running backs on the team are Rob Kelley and Matt Jones. The former supplanting the latter in 2016. If Perine is at all talented he should easily slide into the #1 spot and by playing a UDFA rookie last year we know Jay Gruden isn’t afraid to give his rookies significant playing time. There really aren’t any rookies after Perine that have an easy path to 200 carries.
14.) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
I could probably go back and forth between Kamara and Perine several times between now and my rookie drafts in early June. They are very different players and their year one roles will probably be quite different as well. To start with, Kamara was third on his team in carries in each of his college seasons with just 210 total carries at Tennessee. That is kind of a red flag to me. He also never exceeded 1000 yards from scrimmage. With the Saints, he appears to be headed for a third down / pass-catching specialist role. That player can be very valuable with the Sean Payton Saints as we’ve seen with Darren Sproles especially. I still like Mark Ingram quite a bit and Adrian Peterson will be ahead of Kamara as well. Despite not being very fast (4.56) Kamara is a SPARQ favorite. He ranked 4th among all RBs in this draft class for SPARQ score and second among RBs that were drafted. He is an excellent receiver. In addition to his meager 210 carries he caught 74 passes in those two years at Tennessee. I can definitely see a situation where Ingram and AP are both gone after this year and Kamara could end up with the bulk of the carries and 50+ receptions as well.
15.) WR/RB Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers
After taking Christian McCaffrey 8th overall I think it was a big surprise to many to see Samuel taken by the Panthers in the second, 40th overall. Samuel is extremely fast (4.31) and young - he doesn’t turn 21 until August. Do they have enough room for both players? I say...absolutely! Samuel played a lot out of the backfield in college and used his blazing speed to put up 97 carries with 7.9 YPC while adding a 74-865-7 line as a receiver. The YPC was no fluke either. In 172 college carries his career total is 7.5 which is just absurd. The main knock is that he profiles as a gadget player and does not have a clearly defined role. Will he be more Tavon Austin or Tyreek Hill? By putting him 15 I definitely see more of a Tyreek Hill role and I think Ron Rivera & OC Mike Shula have continued to improve on using players to their skill set and not forcing them into a scheme. Cam needs dump off and short yardage options in the worst way and drafting CMC and Samuel with their first two picks gives me great confidence that they have a clear vision for the two players. If anything, I worry about inefficient Kelvin Benjamin and the rest of the WRs now that these two are around.
16.) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver Broncos
Perhaps a surprise to see Henderson above the next player on my list but he is a missed tackle machine! According to Pro Football Focus, he forced 48 missed tackles in 2016, far and away the number one player. This led to an extremely impressive 18.7 yards per catch and 19 touchdowns. Couple that with 4.46 speed and he is super intriguing. The case against him is that he wasn’t drafted until the middle of the third to a team with two already very good to great receivers in place. The Broncos QB situation definitely had enough targets for two players to do well but three seems highly unlikely. DT and Sanders will both be 30 by season’s end. I don’t like to admit it but at least one of them will probably be on the decline pretty soon. The other main gripe is that Henderson was not the top target for his team. That honor goes to Trent Taylor who will be in one of my next two articles (but you’ll have to stay tuned to find out which!) Still, Henderson definitely profiles as the better NFL receiver and well worth taking in the middle of the 2nd.
17.) WR Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
Juju is the youngest fantasy-relevant player in the draft, he doesn’t even turn 21 until late November! He also went to a pass-heavy offense in the 2nd round so there is definitely appeal here and I’ve seen him mocked in the late 1st of rookie drafts. The problem is he enters a pretty deep WR corps, and one that doesn’t like to use its rookies. Coates barely saw any action as a rookie and Martavis had to wait several weeks before getting involved. I actually still like Coates quite a bit still and believe a broken hand is what kept him from a breakout last year. Martavis is a playmaker but inconsistent. He may run into another suspension at some point but I certainly wouldn’t take Juju expecting that to happen. Juju, being as young as he is, seems like a top candidate to see very little action as a rookie. A year of waiting in the wings and he will likely be available for an early second or less this time next year. Beyond the opportunity with the Steelers, he also fell in the draft after a significant dropoff in his junior year. He also isn’t exceptionally athletic nor does he have the size to make up for it. Everything was good, but nothing was great. Really the only place he shines is age-adjusted production and I’m not comfortable putting a TON of weight on that.
18.) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee Titans
The second of two talented receivers for the Titans, I believe both are the starters of the future for the team. Taywan brings a great mix of athleticism (4th best SPARQ score for a rookie receiver) and production. His 1730 yards were the 3rd most behind Trent Taylor and Zay Jones. Those two were both possession receivers without the impressive 17.7 yards per catch that Taylor brings. So what is the issue? The depth chart both in the now and the future should keep Taywan from being a star. In year one I expect Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews to be ahead of Taylor limiting him to perhaps 600-800 yards as a rookie. Long term it's hard when the expectation is he will be overshadowed by Corey Davis. There is certainly a small chance that Taylor ends up the better of the two, but just a small chance is all. The realistic best case is a situation where both put up numbers like Sanders/DT and I could definitely see that.
19.) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston Texans
Foreman is a big bruiser with impressive speed. He stands in at 6’0” 233lbs with 4.50 speed. That puts him on par with the bigger, a tiny bit slower Derrick Henry. Unfortunately Foreman isn’t Henry’s match overall. That’s fine, he is still a good prospect that put up 2000 rush yards as a 20 year old!! There is some worry about Lamar Miller but I don’t think his job is that secure any more. Miller is easily cuttable after 2017. Foreman has a pretty good shot at being the lead back in 2018 and may even usurp Miller sometime this year.
20.) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Hunt is a little slow for my liking at 4.62 but he did have some gaudy numbers in college and the Chiefs traded up in the top 100 to grab him. As a sophomore in 2014 Hunt had 204 carries and an 8.0 YPC which is just insane. If he could have repeated that in 2015 he probably would have declared and gone in the first two rounds. However he fell to a 5.5 YPC which is not great outside of the power-5 and also missed a couple games. Returning for his senior year he finally flashed some pass catching ability with 41 receptions and put up 1878 yards from scrimmage although once again just a 5.6 YPC. He’s a fine player but I just don’t see that much to get excited about. However I do like Andy Reid and if the team is moving up to grab this guy I think they don’t trust Spencer Ware too much.
21.) QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
I always have a tough time ranking QBs. The way the Bears made such an obvious desperation play to move up one spot to 2nd overall screams disaster-in-waiting. Despite that I can’t help but like Trubisky. The major knock on him is that he was just a one year starter but it sure was a nice season. The Bears have already started to bring in some receivers to try and help their QB hopeful of the future. They drafted Adam Shaheen and Tarik Cohen while signing Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright (laugh if you want, but those are not awful pieces!). This is in addition to Cameron Meredith and Kevin White. They may still attack the draft on offense in the coming years much like Tennessee and Tampa have. It was a desperation play by the Bears but if Trubisky is good it doesn't matter how dumb it looked in the moment. I think they may have gotten it right.
22.) TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans
A fourth tight end in the top 24 (and very nearly had a 5th!) seems just crazy, but I love this class and it will give the position the depth it needs. Delanie Walker is 33 this year and while he had a good 2016 it was still a drop off from 2015. They needed a TE for the future and they got it. Jonnu is another very athletic TE with impressive numbers from a smaller school. He wasn’t drafted until the end of the 3rd but definitely landed with a good team. Expect Jonnu to be mostly a zero in 2017, but the hope is that he can be the starter by 2018.
23.) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers
Williams is a speedster and ran a 4.41 at the combine. He took an interesting path to the 49ers. After being stuck in a committee and not being very successful through two games, Williams left the Utes, returning after injuries guaranteed him a featured role. Williams put up massive numbers after returning, highlighted by 332 yards against UCLA and 222 in the bowl game against Indiana. Coupled with the speed he showed at the combine, he became a guy that Shanahan wanted and convinced GM John Lynch to take. There is some uncertainty here and Carlos Hyde is still around but Shanahan already successfully used two running backs in Atlanta so don’t be surprised if Williams has a year 1 impact.
24.) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones is one of my favorite under the radar prospects. He ranks as the #1 drafted RB in SPARQ score thanks to excellent 3-cone, vertical jump and broad jump numbers. Better yet, he has the the college production to back it up. Jones had 2006 yards from scrimmage with 20 touchdowns as a senior. His 7.7 YPC and 28 receptions add extra appeal. So why did he fall to the end of the 5th round in the draft, not even the first RB that the Packers took? After a hot start to the 2015 season he tore a ligament in his ankle after two games. He also missed time as a freshman and had over 250 touches in both of his two full seasons. Jones also has little experience against top competition but he did put up 150+ yards against Texas Tech twice and also had 124 yards with a 6.8 YPC against Texas last year. I like Ty Montgomery a lot but I don’t think the Packers see him as a true feature back. Aaron Jones is one of my favorite sleepers in this draft.
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