Jun 2, 2017

Dynasty Rookie Sleepers - Players to monitor after your rookie draft


I told you all I felt this was a really deep draft class right? Even after covering 53 players so far, I still have players I want to bring up. Pretty much every year without fail there are guys that go undrafted in dynasty rookie drafts but end up being contributors to fantasy teams. In 2015 Thomas Rawls fit the bill. Last year it was Dak Prescott (in 1QB leagues that drafted early) and Tyreek Hill. To a lesser extent, undrafted players Robby Anderson and Jalen Richard became worthy of at least being on dynasty rosters. Below I have five guys I don’t see myself drafting but I do plan to keep an eye on them. If you are in a league like mine with expanded rosters during the offseason, these guys make great stashes. If they generate buzz during the preseason, great! If not they can be cut without harm.

RB Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers


I’m starting off with Breida because A.) I think it’s well documented that I am all in on Kyle Shanahan at this point and B.) He is the #1 SPARQ RB of 2017. He was also insanely productive in college with 171 carries in 2014 for 1485 yards and 18 total touchdowns. That’s an incredible 8.7 yards per carry. In 2015 he backed that up with 203 carries for 1609 yards and 17 touchdowns. That was a 7.9 YPC. These numbers came at the Sun Belt Conference’s Georgia Southern but that 8.7 YPC was the third best since 2000 minimum 150 carries (via Sports-Reference). The guy was on pace to be a 3rd or 4th round draft pick at worst. 

Then...2016 happened. While remaining as Georgia Southern’s feature back he had 168 carries for 646 yards and 5 TDs. That is a 3.8 YPC which would have been unacceptable for an NFL prospect in even the toughest of conferences. The dropoff was shocking and I can’t think of a comparable situation. Breida was not even invited to the NFL combine. I’m sure expectations were low at Georgia Southern’s pro day but even if scouts were expecting impressive athleticism from Breida, he blew them away. He ran a 4.39 in the 40 (4.44 after adjusting for hand timed) and combined it with an impressive 23 reps of the bench press. That would have been the 4th best 40 time and tied for third best in the bench press at the combine. He didn’t stop there though. His 42” vertical was easily better than anyone at the combine (Alvin Kamara’s 39.5 was #1). His 11’2” broad jump? Once again better than any combine RB, beating Kamara’s 10’11” jump.

So here we have a guy that put up eye-popping numbers in 2014 and ‘15. He is insanely athletic. He was paired with one of the best offensive minds in the game. He was just genuinely so terrible in 2016 that everything else must be taken with a grain of salt. I want to stash this guy on all of my offseason rosters. If anybody can rectify whatever his 2016 issues were, its Shanny.

WR Isaiah Ford, Miami Dolphins


Much like college teammate Bucky Hodges (coincidence or not?) in my previous article, Ford was a guy that many draft analysts had in their top 100. Ford had excellent numbers as a 3-year starter and is only 21 years old so adjusted for age they look even better. However, unlike Bucky Hodges, Ford did not excel at the combine outside of a 127” broad jump. He ran a 4.61 40 yard dash and at 6’1” 194 lbs he isn’t nearly big enough to ignore that lack of speed like with Mike Williams. The final nail in the coffin was NFL teams validating those issues by letting Ford slip all the way to the 7th round, 237th overall. If possible to make that even worse, he went to the Dolphins who are loaded at receiver with Landry, Parker, Stills and even Carroo. You have to imagine the Dolphins do like him quite a bit to take him in the draft at all despite their WR depth but I would still give Ford almost no chance to make an impact in 2017. He is worth a deep roster stash just to see if he can make some waves in the preseason but if he finds his way onto any of my rosters I doubt he’d make my regular season team.

TE Jake Butt, Denver Broncos


After the criticism Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette faced for skipping their bowl games, Butt was a somber reminder why it’s not a bad idea. The promising Butt (ugh that sounds weird) was likely going to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder with a chance for immediate impact before tearing his ACL in the Orange Bowl. That was December 30th of 2016 meaning there is a very good chance he does not play a down in the NFL this year. It also means we don’t have athletic measurements on Butt. 

With the Broncos, Butt has little competition as of now. However his QB situation is uncertain and OC Mike McCoy has a spotty track record with tight ends. McCoy made very little use of receiving TEs in his first stint with the Broncos. Julius Thomas played his first two years under McCoy but did not break out until Adam Gase came in. When becoming the Chargers head coach he was handed one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Antonio Gates and we can’t really attribute any success Gates had to McCoy. However he also was the man in charge while Ladarius Green gave us flashes of brilliance without ever becoming the fantasy starter many expected. Lastly in his final year as HC rookie Hunter Henry emerged as a potential future star at the position. There is definitely talent and opportunity here and Butt can be stashed on the IR in dynasty leagues, but is it worth passing up a player that can possibly increase his value in the now? For me that’s a no but I wouldn’t fault anyone for disagreeing.

*Super Sleeper Special*


RB Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams, Cincinnati Bengals


An awesome nickname, SEC production and above average athleticism, it’s simultaneously weird and understandable that Boom comes with zero fanfare. Obviously, the primary and extremely significant factor is opportunity. Signing with the Bengals it’s near impossible to imagine Boom getting significant playing time. Unless they keep 4 RBs it’s hard to see him making the team - even then RB Cedric Peerman has been a special teams mainstay for several years. Come to think of it, maybe getting cut by the Bengals would be the best possible outcome for Boom!

Anyway...Boom (yeah that’s right, I’m sticking with the awesome nickname) played at Kentucky, one of the runts of the SEC which certainly aided his lack of buzz. He’s also very small at 5’7”, though his 190 lbs is not an issue at that height. As far as production, results were mixed. He never went below 6.5 YPC in his three years and that is phenomenal in the SEC. On the flip side he maxed out at 171 carries and 1,170 yards in 2016 while also being on the lesser side of an RB committee. As a senior he had poor performances in the bowl game against Georgia Tech and also against Alabama (as one would expect) but also had a 15-123-1 vs South Carolina and 16-127-1 line against Tennessee. At the combine he ranked above average in every drill except for the bench press. That’s a bit of a shame as it would have offset his small size. Boom has basically no chance to make an impact on the Bengals in the now or in the future with Joe Mixon being there. I can only hope he finds his way to another team. He meets too many of the criteria I look for in a prospect to not get mentioned here.

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