You never forget your first. For me, when I first started playing fantasy football back in 2011 it was Matthew Stafford. My Sundays were spent being frustrated with a quarterback who I had no right to be. Stafford and I had a happy year together, going on to win a championship that guaranteed me a better shift at the college radio station I worked for.
Maybe because it's the summer I'm just feeling nostalgic for lost love, but I figured it's time I looked up how my ex has been doing. Back when I knew him, all he would do is throw the ball up in the air a million times per game to Calvin Johnson. It seems like since we split, "Fat Matt" as I affectionately called him has learned to pass less.
The Lions Pass Attempts
In 2016, Matthew Stafford attempted to pass 594 times. That was still 9th best in the league, but gone are the days when he easily attempted over 600 passes in a season. In 2012 Stafford set the record for most pass attempts in a season with a jaw dropping 727. For reference, second place all time is at 691. In the two seasons since Jim Bob Cooter took over as OC, Stafford has yet to break 600 pass attempts. Under Cooter, the passing game has clearly adopted the motto "less is more"
Despite having a name that sounds like it came straight out of King of the Hill, I don't think we can say the dip in attempts is all on Cooter. 2016 saw the departure of the King of Pride Rock himself - Calvin Johnson. So who did those 594 targets go to then?
Well, 135 went to Stafford's new golden boy conveniently named Golden Tate. Another 103 went to the newly acquired Marvin Jones. Anquan Boldin saw 95 targets, though he was primarily used as a red zone threat. The running back group led by Theo Riddick's 67 saw a total of 114 targets. The "lion's share" of the 91 targets to the tight end position went towards Eric Ebron, who saw 85 targets. The other targets went to end of the roster guys, highlighted by the 25 targets that Andre Roberts attempted to haul in.
You'd think in conjunction with the lower amount of pass attempts the past two years, you'd see a stronger run game from the Lions right? You'd think wrong. Not once in the past two years have they had any single running back break 600 yards in the season. Last year the Lions ranked 30th in the league rushing the ball, and the year before they ranked dead last.
2017 Predictions
Many of you probably cackled like hyenas when the Lions didn't draft a running back in what was supposed to be a loaded class. They clearly believe Ameer Abdullah is their guy, and to be fair he wasn't healthy last year. Additionally, Theo Riddick wasn't healthy either. We'll see who has the last laugh here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lions draft a running back high in 2018.
For the upcoming season, that means I don't expect the pass attempts to change all that much. In fact, the offense under Cooter has been pretty consistent with 592 passes attempted in 2015, and 594 in 2016. For the purposes of this article, we'll say the lions see a slight increase to a whopping 595!
Hopefully Golden Tate doesn't turn my life into a fantasy game for writing about him, but here goes nothing. I know people may debate me on this, but I fully expect the man whose name sounds like a breakfast cereal to see the most targets again on this team. The lowest number of targets he's been fed the last three year is 128, and with Johnson in the rear view mirror I believe he will see at least 130 again.
Anyone else a big Looney Tunes fan? I can't think of Marvin Jones without thinking of Marvin the Martian. Anyway, he had a career year in Detroit last season to the tune of 55-930-4 on 103 targets. My big concern is that almost all those stats came before week 8. In the second half of the season he played in 7 games but totaled just 19 recs for 274 yards without a touchdown. He did still pace for 101 targets and given that he should see at least 100 again.
Anquan Boldin is unlikely to be signed by the Lions, leaving behind his 95 targets. The Lions may not have drafted a running back, but a new cub has entered the pride in the form of Kenny Golladay. The third round pick in the 2017 draft has jumped up everyone's draft boards this summer, and for good reason. He was very good in college, and is tied for the tallest receiver on the team with Eric Ebron.
There's some talk that T.J Jones could potentially be the receiver used in three wide receiver sets, but considering he's yet to break 150 yards in two seasons I just don't see it. Golladay should get the bulk of the looks that Boldin is leaving behind, however I do not expect him to get all 95. He will get 85, which should be plenty for him to impress in his rookie season.
Speaking of Eric Ebron, he seems to be the forgotten man in this offense. With Boldin gone, he's likely to see more looks in the red zone which should account for a slight uptick in targets as well. He'll see 90 targets, and people will be calling him a "breakout" after this season. The tight ends as group will still see around 95 targets.
In case you were curious, last year nine tight ends finished with 90+ targets. All nine finished in the top 12 in .5 PPR scoring. Ebron with his 85 finished as the TE14 despite missing three games. You can expect a top 12 finish this year at the very least, with room for more as you'll see below.
In case you were curious, last year nine tight ends finished with 90+ targets. All nine finished in the top 12 in .5 PPR scoring. Ebron with his 85 finished as the TE14 despite missing three games. You can expect a top 12 finish this year at the very least, with room for more as you'll see below.
Finally, that brings us to the running backs. I already mentioned that neither Abdullah nor Riddick were healthy last season. You may have even forgotten that in 2015, Theo Riddick saw an incredible 99 targets. Last season, he only saw 67 and I expect that amount to go back up towards the 2015 amount. I believe he will get 80 targets, and the running backs as a group will see an increase to around 130 because Abdullah also tends to see some work in the passing game.
Conclusion
If you were paying attention, you've noticed I'm high on a good amount of the Lions offense for this upcoming season. I guess "Hakuna Matata" really does mean no worries, because the dip in targets isn't that concerning to me. Maybe you really do never forget your first love, but I expect Stafford to have a very good season assuming everyone stays healthy.
As you know by now though, the point of these articles is to highlight one particular player. In this case, we are going to try something a little different. I'm going to give you my projections for the main pieces of the offense in terms of targets and you can then determine who will be a value for this season and going forward.
The below are in order of targets-receptions-yardage-touchdowns
Golden Tate
130-88-1003-5
Marvin Jones
100-58-850-6
Kenny Golladay
85-57-684-4
Eric Ebron
90-63-750-7
Theo Riddick
80-60-500-3
As you can see, I'm clearly the highest on Ebron for this coming season. However, the stat line I projected would be a very nice rookie season for Golladay as well. Those would be the two pieces of the Lions offense I'd focus on acquiring this off-season, and would make Matthew Stafford a quarterback worth shouting at again on Sundays. It's the true circle of fantasy football life.
Until next time,
Rek
@RekedFantasy
*All stats pulled from pro-football-reference.com, www.sports-reference.com, and playerprofiler.com
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