Like many of you, I'm still trying to make sense of why the Seahawks didn't run the ball from 1st and goal to win the 2014 Super Bowl. All they had to do was follow Rainbow Road ( a different nickname for Marshawn Lynch based on his love of Skittles) to victory, and yet they took a wrong turn somewhere. It's even more surprising when you look at the numbers. Only three times in the past seven years has a receiver broken 100 targets on the Seahawks. Not once in the Pete Carroll era of coaching has the team had multiple receivers get 100 looks.
This is a run first team and it makes that decision all the more confusing. The teams off-season moves has given no indications this is changing any time soon. Many of you may not be encouraged by the signing of Eddie Lacy, but it shows this team still wants to bowl over their opponents rather than get the job done through the air.
Seattle Seahawks Pass Attempts
It might surprise you to learn then that last season the Seahawks attempted 567 passes which was tied for 18th most in the league. The majority were attempted by Russel Wilson, but just like other teams the Seahawks too had one of their receivers attempt a sigle pass. Doug Baldwin threw a perfect touchdown pass to Russell Wilson. Can this be considered a trick play if so many teams pulled it off successfully last season?
The target breakdown is as follows:
Doug Baldwin-125
Jimmy Graham-95
Jermaine Kearse-89
Tyler Lockett-66
Paul Richardson-36
After that the next largest is Christine Michael with 26, and at least 5 more guys saw at least 10 targets. The spread of targets can easily be attributed to the fact many of the team's passing options were injured at various points last season. However, while he's not quite Drew Brees, Wilson has spread the ball historically in his limited pass attempts.
What is somewhat surprising is the fact that the Seahawks actually finished lower in attempted rushing than attempted passes last year. They were only 20th in rushing attempts last season, as opposed to 3rd overall the year before, and 1st overall in 2014. Maybe if they had just given Marshawn what he wanted, they wouldn't have fallen off the rails so many times.
The blame can't be placed solely at the feet of that one play though. Anytime the running backs for Seattle seemed to get going last season, they slipped on a banana peel. They didn't have a single back that was active for all 16 games last season. Their highest was Alex Collins who was active for 11 games and he was only a backup.
Their rushing attack should be better this year because not only did they sign Lacy, but both Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise hopefully won't be as injured as last season. What does that mean for the passing attack in the upcoming season?
2017 Predictions
Well there are some encouraging signs for fantasy purposes. Russel Wilson has shown an upwards trend of passing attempts every season he's been in the league. His 546 last season was a career high. I'm not sure how much I expect that to increase, but this year I'll assign him 550 and the team 575 passes total.
I don't think I need to tell you how "underrated" Baldwin is. He's so underrated that it's all dynasty twitter seems to talk about these days. He's the green shell of fantasy players. Under utilized by new players but deadly in the hands of someone who knows what they are doing. As Wilson continues to throw more, Baldwin will continue to benefit. I believe he will see right around the 125 targets he saw last season.
This is probably where you expect me to talk about Jermaine Kearse. I know he is often utilized in the redzone but it's hard to get excited about a guy who rarely crossed the finish line and has only had better than a 60% catch rate once in his career. Kearse's 46.1% catch rate was 5th worst of anyone with 50 or more targets. The other guys all had far less accurate quarterbacks as well. He's the coin of the Seahawks offense, it has it's uses but there are much more exciting options.
Tyler Lockett is one such option. Easily on his way to star power after Matt Harmon wrote about him last year, we all thought 2016 would be his year. He too slipped on some banana peels, leading to multiple injuries and his star to fade. I still like him but not sure I see him getting more than 75 targets unless everything breaks right.
Paul Richardson feasibly could be the guy too. He brings that same golden mushroom 4.40 speed to the table that Lockett does. However, unlike Lockett, Richardson has been in the league three seasons and hasn't shown much. He did start to emerge down the stretch after Lockett's injury. He had 21 targets over the final 4 games (playoffs included) and had a respectable 15-213-2 line during that span. However, he's also had multiple injuries himself, including two torn ACLs. He has potential but I just don't see him getting more than 40 targets.
That brings us to Amara Darboh, the Seahawks 3rd round pick in this draft. Maybe it's just because he's the new toy like the boomerang introduced in Mario Kart 8, or maybe it's because he's 6'2 and over 200 pounds but I really like his chance to become a producer for this team. He's not quite as fast as the previous two guys I mentioned, but still has plenty of speed for his size. I'll say he sees 55 targets, with an opportunity for much more if Lockett stumbles out of the gate.
So what is old reliable Jimmy Graham going to do? Early in his Seahawks career, they were deploying him like the three red shells. They'd use him correctly one of out of three times. They seemed to get it together last season though. I'd expect him to see right about the 95 targets he saw last season, and the tight end group to see around 115 targets total.
I expect C.J. Prosise to easily lead the backfield in terms of targets. He reminds me of a bigger Giovani Bernard, and the Seahawks are rumored to want to get him more involved in the offense this coming season. I think he will see 60 targets and the running back group will see about 85 targets.
Conclusion
That leaves 80 targets of the 575 I predicted unaccounted for. Some of those will likely go to Jermaine Kearse, but I really feel this is the year that the Seahawks start to phase him out.That also leaves room for one of the potential WR2s I mentioned to grow if they prove they are worth it.
Now time for what you all really came for: the projections!
Doug Baldwin
125-91-1140-7
Tyler Lockett
75-48-658-4
Paul Richardson
40-26-300-1
Amara Darboh
55-33-400-2
Jimmy Graham
95-62-850-8
C.J Prosise
60-47-400-3
Clearly Lockett is currently my favorite to run with the WR2 job, but Darboh also has a shot. I'm not a big believer in Richardson and if he has another season where he produces like that I can't imagine he'll be on the team much longer. It is dangerous to believe in receivers that the Seahawks draft though. They keep doing it and yet none of them has overtaken Kearse.
Maybe we should all just accept the coin for what it is. It helps us go a little faster. But it's hard not to dream on the star or the boomerang instead.
Until next time,
Rek
@RekedFantasy
*All stats pulled from pro-football-reference.com, and sports-reference.com
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