On the positive side for the team-they have one of the premiere running backs in David Johnson. Given all that you'd think this would be a team that ran the ball first and asked questions later. It's not so! They ranked 3rd in passing attempts last season while only ranking 21st in rushing attempts. What gives?
Arizona Cardinals Passing Attempts
Maybe the reason Carson Palmer is considering retirement is he attempted a career high 597 passes last season. Considering all the passes he's thrown his career, I can't imagine he isn't feeling fatigued after that. Much like other teams, the Cardinals also had a receiver attempt a pass but his was not thrown for a touchdown. I guess we learned the one thing that Larry Fitzgerald can't do well!
The breakdown for last season looks like this:
Larry Fitzgerald-150
David Johnson-120
J.J Nelson-74
John Brown-73
Michael Floyd-70
Jermaine Gresham-61
Jaron Brown-22
The rest all had under 20. The fact that three receivers didn't break 100 targets isn't unique for the Cardinals, it hasn't happened since at least 2010. What is unique is the fact that they had five receivers who all received at least 70 targets.
Put into context though it's not surprising. John Brown found out he had a sickle-cell trait that was giving him problems with his legs all season. J.J Nelson dealt with a shoulder injury for part of the season. Michael Floyd was released due to an ongoing off the field issues.
Looking at it through that lens, it makes sense that they all ate into each others work. It also makes sense that David Johnson saw a ridiculous 120 targets. He was one of the only healthy options available to the Cardinals, and he earned his wings.
2017 Predictions
The Cardinals didn't do much in the off-season to convince me that this offense is going to look much different. The main additions to the offense came in the form of third round wide receiver Chad Williams and fifth round running back T.J. Logan. Despite that, I do expect Palmer to decline this year and we will see this team pass less. For the upcoming season, we'll say they attempt 580 passes.
Larry Fitzgerald may be the oldest of the receivers, but he certainly does not look the part. He had a slight down year from his 2015 season, but I think anyone would take 107-1023-6 on their team without batting an eye. Carson Palmer loves him, but due to his age the game plan will call for looking elsewhere slightly more. Fitzgerald will see 125 targets this upcoming season.
The battle for second most targeted on the Cardinals is going to be a close one, but I'm going to have to give it to the "Road Runner" David Johnson. On 120 targets last season he put up an 80-879-4 line. Since there should be other options that are healthy this season, I still do expect a target decline. He will meep meep his way to seeing 115 targets this season.
Next up is "Smokey the bear" a.k.a John Brown. All reports seem to be that he has found ways to deal with the sickle cell issue, and should be a healthy option for Palmer. According to rotoworld.com, Brown and Palmer have also been living together this season. Remember kids, only you can prevent forest fires started by John Brown's blazing speed when he sees 100 targets this season.
I know J.J. Nelson saw 74 targets last season, but I feel that was more out of need than desire. Sure he put up a 34-568-6 line on those targets, but his catch rate was pretty undesirable at 45.9%. To be fair, almost all his targets were on deep balls but it's hard not to see a healthy John Brown filling that role. Nelson will be targeted 40 times this season.
I suppose I should give a quick mention to Jermaine Gresham. There's not really much special going on with him, but he will see about 60 targets again this year. The Cardinals haven't had a fantasy relevant tight end in a long time, and I don't expect that to change this season.
That brings me to one of my personal favorites from this year's draft in Chad Williams. I had him included as a throw in for a trade for Ajayi in one league because I like his potential that much. I know we shouldn't get too excited about third round picks, but the Cardinals have had plenty of success with drafting small school wide receivers. Just ask the aforementioned John Brown and J.J Nelson.
There's another major factor working in Williams favor of seeing a good amount of looks his rookie season. J.J. Nelson is the only other wide receiver of note that the Cardinals currently have on the books for next season. They will want to game plan to see what they have in their new toy, and he will see 90 targets.
Time for the projections!
Larry Fitzgerald
125-88-897-5
David Johnson
115-74-775-4
John Brown
100-65-950-5
J.J Nelson
40-18-315-2
Jermaine Gresham
60-36-378-2
Chad Williams
90-54-729-4
I'm clearly very high on Chad Williams, but I think there is good reason to be. Williams is the 74th wide receiver off the board, going right after Kenny Stills. When you're being drafted after the likes of Cooper "overrated" Kupp, you know you're a well kept secret.
I'm also expecting a bounce back from John brown, and he looks very reasonable at his cost. He's currently the 43rd receiver off the board and going after Breshad Perriman and Randall Cobb. I'd take the bet on Smokey setting the fields ablaze over those guys.
If you're looking to the desert for help, just remember we're not sure who will be the Cardinals quarterback next season. You may be running towards what you think is an oasis, only to find that you've run into a canyon wall. You may want to consult the local expert while considering which Cardinal to draft for the future.
Until next time,
Rek
@RekedFantasy
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