FIRST THINGS FIRST: Woah, back on the blog? Yep! I was removed from DLF for not being active enough. Let me be clear, I LOVE DLF. They gave me every opportunity to return to an acceptable level and I did not. It was a long time coming and I have nothing but the utmost respect for them. Ultimately, I have always been a ‘write when you are feeling up to it’ kind of person and I was not the best at adhering to schedules and content minimums. So, here I am, back at the blog.
Since I am here writing on my own blog, I’d also like to reach out to the community and offer this space as a potential place for new and/or raw writers to get their work out to the world. I used to edit my very good friend @rekedfantasy’s work, which can still be found on this site, and look at him now! I can’t take a pile of garbage and turn it into gold, but I do think I can both help hone a raw writer into something better and give them a greater chance to be noticed by legitimate fantasy football sites. I “only” have 2,100 followers on twitter but that does include a lot of people in the industry. So many people helped me out when I decided I was going to start writing and tweeting seven years ago, if I can propel someone else even a little bit, I’d love to do so.
Lastly I’ve considered attaching my Paypal link in case anyone wanted to send me a tip, because I believe that the quality of my writing is still that of a pay site. I don’t know how I feel about it though. I’d certainly like to make money from this hobby. I also know that 2020 is a really weird year across the board and that money can go to a lot of more important causes. I will say that very soon the sports-reference family of sites will be moving their play indexes ALL to pay sites. And because I would need both NFL and college football indexes, it isn't cheap. ($16 a month) I literally cannot write the articles I write without these incredible tools. I guess for now, you can contact me on twitter if you feel so moved by my writing. Now, this is a long article and I’ve only made it longer with this preface. Let’s get to it!
This draft class is insanely deep and as a result there are going to be some great players to be had in the bottom half of the second round and even into the third round! I mean we currently have a player drafted in the 2nd round that isn’t being taken in dyno rookie drafts until pick 29! (Van Jefferson, per DLF ADP). I can’t remember seeing a RB/WR taken so early in the NFL draft fall all the way to the mid-third like that. That said, for the stats/data driven part of the community I can at least understand why he has fallen so far. A little earlier in the draft there is a player that I am genuinely baffled has fallen so far. It was a surprise when Chase Claypool was drafted by the Steelers in the middle of the second round, given their trio of WRs all 25 and under and all drafted in the second or third round. Let’s take a deep dive into Chase Claypool to see what the Steelers were thinking and whether he is going to take targets from his veteran teammates.
Background Profile - From Canada to Notre Dame
As a Canadian player, Chase Claypool was basically an unknown in high school until he posted his highlights to Facebook where they made the rounds. (Source: Dane Brugler, The Athletic) After that, his stock exploded and he became a four-star recruit. He had a handful of P5 offers before settling on Notre Dame. He did not have a redshirt season, playing in 8 games as a true freshman but recording just a 5-81-0 line. In his sophomore season he saw more action, especially when Miles Boykin missed a handful of games. He recorded a 9-180-1 line against Wake Forest and that would be the highest receiving total for any Notre Dame player during the season. In 2018 he was a full-time starter and was the team’s WR2 behind Boykin. Claypool improved to 50-639-4 but disappeared in the College Football Playoffs where he put up just 8 yards vs Clemson in a semifinal blowout loss. To this point, Claypool’s career was fine but not that of a top NFL prospect. That would change when he finally got his shot as the number one receiver in 2019.
Claypool’s Breakout Senior Season
Claypool was the undisputed number one for 2019 and he kicked it off with 5 recs for 94 yards against Louisville, easily the highest on the team. He was on a solid but unspectacular pace over the first half of the season. Claypool hit his stride over the final six games where he totaled an impressive 604 yards and nine touchdowns! The highlights include a monster 7-117-4 in the historic Notre Dame - Navy matchup while also putting up 118 yards in a one-point victory over Virginia Tech. In Notre Dame’s bowl game against Iowa State, Claypool put up his highest yardage of the season with an impressive 7-146-1 in a dominant win for ND. His final season line was 66-1037-13. As Notre Dame passed for a mediocre 3,278 yards in total, this was over 30% of the team’s passing yards and more than double that of the next highest total on the team (Cole Kmet, 515). The numbers don’t initially pop but factoring in the offense, it was a very good season.
Chase Claypool compared to other Brian Kelly ND receivers
Let’s take a look at other NFL receivers during Brian Kelly’s tenure with Notre Dame (since 2010). For this I will consider age and dominator rating (Yards as a % of total pass yards). Chase Claypool was 21 last season which is relatively old for a breakout season. Data shows that a young breakout age (18 or 19) is a great indicator of NFL success, and that goes against Chase. That said, his dominator of 31.6% is undeniably impressive.
The easiest comparison is Miles Boykin, whom Claypool played second fiddle to just a year prior. Boykin was 21/22 during his final season and recorded a 26.1% dominator. This makes Boykin on the very old side for a breakout and while his dominator rating is fine, the two factors together make this a not so impressive season with added context.
Next we have Equanimeous St. Brown who was highly thought of before his disappointing junior season. EQSB’s Sophomore season was genuinely excellent. As a 19/20 year old in 2016 he had a 31.5% dominator, essentially matching Claypool at a year younger. That said, his major step back in 2017 essentially undid all the good of 2016.
Next we have Will Fuller, and I’ll already concede that Fuller was an excellent prospect and superior to Claypool - I’m saying this before pulling up his numbers. In 2015, Fuller put up a whopping 1,258 yards and a 37.4% dominator. This was in addition to topping 1000 yards the year before as well. He was 20 & 21 in these seasons. Yep, Fuller was a great prospect and his NFL success has merely been hampered by injuries.
One more NFL WR for what is really a solid track record at WR for Brian Kelly. All the way back in Kelly’s first two seasons with ND we have Michael Floyd, who at pick 13 was the highest drafted Brian Kelly receiver. Floyd had two big seasons under Kelly and as a 20/21 year old in 2010, he had a 31.2% dominator with 1025 yards. The following year as a 21/22 year old he upped it to 34.9% with a big 100-1,147-9 season. Floyd was undoubtedly a good prospect, but in hindsight I’d have to say he was definitely overrated. On a tangent: The 2012 NFL draft was littered with busts at WR, an incomplete list includes: Justin Blackmon, A.J. Jenkins, Stephen Hill and Ryan Broyles in the first two rounds. With three seasons of 800 yards or better, Floyd was one of the more successful receivers of that draft.
There is no bad prospect of the bunch by these metrics. If I had to rank them it would be Fuller in first by a good margin, followed by Floyd/Claypool pretty close together. I’m factoring in the fact that Floyd had two big seasons, and a lot of his NFL woes are probably related to off-field problems. Then it would be EQSB and Boykin in last. Both players are capable of getting on the field in the NFL but not guys that I see as great fantasy prospects. I’d like to note here that Boykin is an excellent athlete and we’ll get to that in the next segment.
Measurements and Athleticism
Now, the real reason why Boykin and Claypool are so easy to compare: Both are super freaks in the athleticism department. In 2019, Miles Boykin put up an insane combine where he had the highest SPARQ score of any WR per 3sigmaathlete.com. Boykin measured in at 6’4”, 220 lbs and clocked a 4.42. He also had well above average workouts for everything except the bench press.
Enter: Chase Claypool. Measuring up at 6’4” and 238 lbs, Claypool is immediately one of the heaviest WRs in the NFL. According to pro-football-reference, the only WR to weigh over 230 and catch at least 25 balls last year was Mike Evans. Throughout the 2010s, only Cordarrelle Patterson, Kelvin Benjamin and Calvin Johnson joined the list. In 2020, Patterson is officially listed at 238 lbs but he weighed in at a mere 216 at the combine in 2013, so I’ll throw him out. Kelvin Benjamin is one of, if not THE, biggest WR to ever play the position instead of a pseudo-TE/Slot position. He had acceptable speed for his size at a 4.61….at the combine anyway. His NFL career, now seemingly over, was plagued by weight and conditioning problems. Thus, he is not an apt comparison either. No, let’s stick to the super athletes. I’ll also throw in D.K. Metcalf who weighed in at 228 lbs.
Where am I getting at with all of this? Speed Score! (Weight * 200)/(40 time^4)
Here we have the current heaviest starting WR in Evans, the speed score god of Megatron, last year’s speed freak and also Claypool’s college teammate who happened to run the exact same 40 time. To this day, Calvin Johnson remains the gold standard of weight and speed at the position. No one ever even approached his speed score until D.K. Metcalf’s freakish 4.33. By this list, Claypool is more similar to Metcalf than fellow heavyweight Mike Evans, or Miles Boykin who had the same speed but did so at 18 pounds lighter.
As far as I can tell, Claypool’s 124.7 speed score is the third best ever recorded. It is followed closely by Julio Jones, then Darrius Heyward-Bey and Terrelle Pryor (who was at the combine as a QB). While DHB was undoubtedly a bust, even he managed to put up a 975 yard season once upon a time, and still enjoyed a 10 year career in the NFL. So the top-six WR speed scores have all had at least one season of 900 yards. Say what you want about Terrelle Pryor but his ability to convert to WR and put up 1000 yards was quite a feat.
Moving onto Claypool’s other measurements, because oh no, we aren’t quite done yet; Claypool does fall behind in comparison to Miles Boykin. Boykin put up some of the best ever WR numbers for the broad and vertical jumps. However, thanks to pro-football-reference’s consistently amazing play index tool, we can look at jumps by weight, dating back to 2000.
At 235+ pounds, only a small number of skill position players have ever hit 40 inches on the vertical. Claypool hit 40.5. The others that hit 40+ were A.J. Dillon (also 2020 and the only RB on the list), and tight ends Virgil Green, Vernon Davis, Mike Gesicki, and Jared Cook. That is two successful tight ends and Mike Gesicki enters 2020 with a good bit of hype following a late season surge last year.
Claypool’s broad jump was still well above average but at 126” it doesn’t rank quite as highly. That said the list of players 230+ lbs that have hit 125" over the past five years is still a favorable one.
| Year | Player | Pos | Age | School | Height | Wt | Broad Jump | Drafted (tm/rnd/yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Dalton Keene | TE | 20 | Virginia Tech | 6-4 | 253 | 125 | New England Patriots / 3rd / 101st pick / 2020 |
| 2020 | AJ Dillon | RB | Boston College | 6-0 | 247 | 131 | Green Bay Packers / 2nd / 62nd pick / 2020 | |
| 2020 | Chase Claypool | WR | 21 | Notre Dame | 6-4 | 238 | 126 | Pittsburgh Steelers / 2nd / 49th pick / 2020 |
| 2019 | Noah Fant | TE | 21 | Iowa | 6-4 | 249 | 127 | Denver Broncos / 1st / 20th pick / 2019 |
| 2018 | Mike Gesicki | TE | 22 | Penn State | 6-5 | 247 | 129 | Miami Dolphins / 2nd / 42nd pick / 2018 |
| 2017 | Jonnu Smith | TE | 21 | Florida International | 6-3 | 248 | 127 | Tennessee Titans / 3rd / 100th pick / 2017 |
| 2017 | David Njoku | TE | 20 | Miami (FL) | 6-4 | 246 | 133 | Cleveland Browns / 1st / 29th pick / 2017 |
| 2017 | George Kittle | TE | 23 | Iowa | 6-4 | 247 | 132 | San Francisco 49ers / 5th / 146th pick / 2017 |
| 2017 | Bucky Hodges | TE | 21 | Virginia Tech | 6-6 | 257 | 134 | Minnesota Vikings / 6th / 201st pick / 2017 |
| 2017 | Gerald Everett | TE | 22 | South Alabama | 6-3 | 239 | 126 | Los Angeles Rams / 2nd / 44th pick / 2017 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram | TE | 22 | Mississippi | 6-3 | 234 | 125 | New York Giants / 1st / 23rd pick / 2017 |
| 2016 | Derrick Henry | RB | 22 | Alabama | 6-3 | 247 | 130 | Tennessee Titans / 2nd / 45th pick / 2016 |
Lastly we have Claypool’s bench press. At 19 reps it put him in the 84th percentile, but given his size at the position, this isn’t particularly noteworthy. Just last year, D.K. Metcalf and N’Keal Harry put up 27 reps.
All told, 3sigmaathlete listed him at an estimated SPARQ score of 139, which is in the 98th percentile. Claypool did not do the agility drills, which is why it is listed as an estimate. The WRs drafted in the first two rounds with a SPARQ score of 135 or better 2016-2020 are: Claypool, Henry Ruggs III, Parris Campbell, D.K. Metcalf, D.J. Moore, D.J. Chark and John Ross. Athleticism isn’t the only thing but combine it with college production and draft investment and Claypool is among a small but extremely talented list of players.
That’s all nice, but how does he fit into the Steelers
Perhaps the biggest reason Claypool is not universally loved is the one I’ve saved for last. His role on the Steelers is highly debated among the community. Most agree that young phenom Juju Smith-Schuster is the unquestioned WR1 despite struggling in 2019. After him, the Steelers have two other WRs already in place that are both under 25 years old and flashed at times last year. Both were even drafted in the first three rounds!
The first is James Washington. Despite major statistical improvements with backup QBs in 2019, Washington has seen his DLF ADP fall from a 2019 peak of 85 in April, all the way 154 in June of 2020. Washington started off the season extremely slow and ended with a 0 in Week 17, but over an 8-game stretch of weeks 9-16 he put up an impressive line of 34-573-3. His 9.2 yards per target was a pretty good number, especially factoring in QB play. I like Washington although I do think Claypool is an even better prospect.
The more notable roadblock per the consensus is second year WR Diontae Johnson. Johnson was drafted 66th overall in 2019 and was only the 25th rookie in ADP in May of last year. He finished his rookie season at 59-680-5. A respectable but not spectacular rookie season. Yet he has shot up in value from 196 last September to 83 in June of 2020! There are a couple of reasons for this. Diontae played his best ball at season’s end, with a 23-257-2 over the final four games, compared to Washington’s 14-157-0 over that same span, thanks in large part to the aforementioned goose egg in Week 17. The bigger reason, one that made its rounds on twitter not long ago, was the fact that NFL Next Gen stats had him as the number one receiver in average yards of separation.
Here’s the thing - taking a deeper dive into this stat, it is seemingly meaningless as far as fantasy goes. Sure it isn’t a BAD thing. The two overall leaders were tight ends Jimmy Graham and Vance McDonald. I don’t need to tell you how underwhelming they were in 2019. Now, there are some good players near the top. Tyler Higbee is 3rd and he had one of the greatest stretches of any tight end...ever. Tyreek Hill and Robert Woods are also perennially near the top. But over the past few years, the leaderboard is littered with slot receivers and guys who are just guys. Randall Cobb (and these stats only go back to 2016, so it is the meh version of Cobb) and Albert Wilson are also always near the top. So, yeah, I’m not going to prop Diontae up because of this stat.
As a prospect, Diontae also doesn’t match up to Claypool. For measurables Diontae is just 5’10.5” 183 lbs and doesn’t beat Claypool in any of the drills that both ran. He did have a huge 2017 season but he fell off quite a bit in 2018 with a different QB. I should also mention that playing at Toledo, he was outside of the P5 and faced mostly far weaker competition than Claypool. So comparing their prospect profiles, Claypool blows Diontae out of the water. I can’t speak for the tape, that simply isn’t my forte or my style of evaluation. I will acknowledge that there are tape guys out there that really like Diontae’s play and there are plenty of twitter threads and articles that you can look up as a counter to my points.
Now that we have reviewed the competition, how is it going to shake out? Pittsburgh is a tough situation to forecast because in addition to losing Big Ben last year, the replacements were SO. BAD. The Steelers ranked 27th in net yards per attempt last year. Mason Rudolph ranked 30th of 30 qualified quarterbacks in QBR (per ESPN). Devlin Hodges didn’t qualify but his number was even worse. So on one hand, props to Washington and Johnson for doing what they did with this QB play. On the other hand, I can’t feel comfortable taking much away from it because neither of these QBs is going to start for the Steelers ever again if things go to plan.
This is why I still firmly believe JuJu is THE guy in Pittsburgh. I do not believe he makes it to free agency. After him, these three will fight tooth and nail to emerge as the long-term WR2. I simply don’t see Diontae Johnson as the roadblock that many others believe him to be. I am probably more concerned about James Washington honestly. Ultimately, Chase Claypool is a freak of an athlete. You just don't see guys at his size that can do the things he does. That plus the fact that Claypool was the highest draft investment of the three AND the most recent makes me believe they drafted him to be the outside starter alongside JuJu. Longer term, the team probably needs a replacement for 38 year old Ben Roethlisberger coming off serious arm injury. That is going to be key for this team to support two WRs. It’s a risk to bet on that, and I’m not advocating for Claypool as a 1st round pick. But with a current ADP of 24 (2.12 in a 12 man league) I think Claypool is greatly undervalued for the big time potential I believe he has. For me, Claypool is firmly in the mid-2nd territory with Michael Pittman and Laviska Shenault. At his current price, he represents excellent value.
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