Oct 12, 2017

Chasing The Targets: Week 6



I was going to try to get this edition out before the waiver period for most leagues. However, I'm also currently working on applying to business schools and that took priority. I know, I know. How could anything take priority over fantasy football!? Well, the good news is I'm here to write this now. Let's get started.


Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 20
Targets:6
Target increase from the previous week:2
Snap Share: 82.3%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 11.2 %


Ok, so I know that Juju Smith-Schuster is not sitting out there on any dynasty waiver wires. Or if he is, you really need to find yourself a new league to play in. I also know that the Steelers' offense has been such a mess that Ben Roethlisberger is talking about retirement. However, here we have a young receiver who just saw his highest snap share of the season. Did I mention that he's seen at least one red zone target every week since week two? 

Despite seeing fewer targets than Martavis Bryant, Juju has out-snapped him two of the past three weeks. Additionally, want to take a guess about who has seen more red zone targets over that time? If you guessed Juju, congrats you passed! Now is the time to buy the 20-year old before everyone realizes that he's the becoming the true WR2 on this team.

Verdict: Send offers of Mid-Late 2nd


Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings
Age:25
Targets:6
Target increase from the previous week: 4
Snap Share: 67.1 %
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 49.2 %


Was it fairly predictable that Jerick McKinnon would be more involved in the Vikings offense once Dalvin Cook was done for the season? Sure. Did anyone besides his truthers really expect him to play over 30% more snaps than Latavius Murray though? Probably not.

McKinnon had a great day both through the air and the ground. I know the debate rages on about whether he was really effective on the ground or not. I'm not here to have that debate. Rather, I want to chat about the fact that he was tied for the team lead in targets.

That likely has something to do with Case Keenum taking over for Sam Bradford mid game. Case Keenum figures to continue to be the starter while the Vikings get their quarterback situation figured out, and he's not exactly known for pushing the ball down the field.  In fact, the Vikings as a team attempted only 3 passes that qualified as deep according to pro-football-reference during the entire game. This bodes very well for continued pass-catching success for McKinnon. In more good news, Dalvin Cook may be back next season but McKinnon will be a free agent anyway. With a good showing this season he could easily work himself into a larger role on another team.

Verdict: Send offers of Late 2nd-Early 3rd


Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, New York Jets
Age:25
Targets:8
Target increase from the previous week: 4
Snap Share: 83.0%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 5.9 %


There was a time that those of in dynasty circles talked about Austin Sefarian-Jenkins the same way we now talk about O.J Howard or Evan Engram. He was supposed to be that good. Unfortunately, he ran into some issues with alcohol that ultimately led to a DUI and suspension from the league.

Eventually, the Buccaneers decided they had enough and cut him loose. Thankfully for Sefarian-Jenkins, the Jets were willing to a take a flier. It seems to be paying off. It's hard not to root for a guy who so sincerely admitted that he had a problem, and really seems dedicated to turning his life around. Additionally,  while there may not be supremely talented pass catches on the Jets,  he may be the most talented one from an athletic standpoint.

Since returning from the suspension he's seen a steady diet of targets and has watched his snap share climb from 76.2% in week three to 83.0 % this past week. Even more encouraging is in the three weeks he's been active, he's seen two red zone targets and both have come inside the ten-yard line.

Verdict: I had a hard time finding recent trades involving ASJ, but if you need a TE I'd trade pretty much any 2018 3rd for him.


Nick O'Leary, Buffalo Bills
Age:25
Targets:6
Target increase from the previous week:6
Snap Share: 84.3%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 31.0 %


This is another one that is clearly the result of an injury. Charles Clay went down with a torn meniscus and sprained MCL in this game. I'm sure everyone joins me in wishing him a very speedy recovery. However, in the meantime, someone has to catch passes in Buffalo.

For those keeping track at home, Jordan Matthews has been dealing with an injury as well. He may be back after the bye week, but right now Buffalo's top pass catchers are Zay Jones...and likely Nick O'Leary. Did I mention that in the five weeks since the season began Buffalo has targeted their tight end 28% of the time? 

I don't think O'Leary is going to step directly into the volume that Clay had, but his targets game and  share totals certainly indicate that he's someone worth watching. There are plenty of you who can do worse out there, especially since this season it seems like every week another starting tight end is going down. I just wish his bye week hadn't come exactly as we were trying to assess his role.

Verdict: Pick up as end of bench stash


Ed Dickson, Carolina Panthers
Age: 30
Targets: 5
Target increase from last week:1
Snap Share: 100%
Snap Share increase from previous week: 1.6%


This is the second time this season that Ed Dickson has seen 100% of the snap share. That's...very impressive. Of course, just like some of the other guys this week a lot of that has to do with an injury to a player ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, it's important to note who can take advantage of these opportunities when they arise.

Since Greg Olsen's injury in week 3, Dickson has seen 10 targets. On those 10 targets, he has a line of 9-245-0. Talk about being hyper-efficient! However, we should keep in mind that the bulk of those yards came in his 175-yard effort against the Lions this past week. He's very unlikely to repeat that.

I also believe we need to keep in mind that Devin Funchess played tight end in college. He's really grown in the offense since Olsen went down too. Funchess has put up an 18-201-3 line since Olsen's injury in week three. With touchdown catches like the one Funchess made last week, he's finally living up to the "fun" part of his name.

Dickson is certainly worth monitoring after putting up a 62-yard effort followed by his 175-yard effort, but I worry about his long-term value in dynasty leagues. We are already entering week six, and Olsen is expected back in week ten. It's not like we are talking about the performance of a young highly rated prospect, but rather someone who has only broken 300 yards once in his eight-year career. That's not to say Dickson can't be a valuable piece for you while Olsen is out, but I wouldn't over-invest.

Verdict: Pick up off waivers


Recap from last week:


Aldrick Robinson:Marquise Goodwin was able to play this week and Robinson only saw one target. Can safely remove from your radars unless something were to happen to Goodwin again.


Ricardo Louis:Continues to see a high amount of targets and snap share. Put up 71 yards on eight targets last week. I hope you listened about picking him up.


Adam Humphries: Saw a snap share increase but target decrease. Still caught three balls for 51 yards. Still a solid PPR option in deep leagues.


Tyler Kroft: Reports are that Tyler Eifert is getting season ending surgery. Kroft is continuing to see increased snap share and red zone targets. Another guy I hope you picked up last week.



That's it for this week! As always, if you have any questions feel free to message me on twitter @RekedFantasy.

Until next time,

Rek

* This article borrows stats from www.pro-football-reference.com, and playerprofiler.com







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