Five Week One Performances I Believe In

 Gardner Minshew Is the Jags Franchise QB

Minshew had some big downs during his rookie season, but on the whole, it was a surprisingly strong season for the 6th rounder. *As a passer*, he outplayed Kyler Murray. In 2020, the Jaguars are (were?) expected to be one of the worst teams with a shot at Trevor Lawrence next year. Minshew decided otherwise. He had a tremendous Week 1 performance. In 15 games and 13 starts, Minshew has 24 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. Before Minshew, the last QB to have 20+ TDs and 6 or fewer interceptions over their first 15 games was Dak Prescott. Prescott was a similar late-round draft pick not expected to be the face of the franchise. I’m liking Minshew’s odds to follow that path.

Julio Jones Will Break the Record for Most Consecutive 1,300 yard seasons

Julio is currently tied with Torry Holt at six straight 1,300 yard seasons for most ever. After leading the league with 157 rec yards in Week 1, Julio is already on a great pace to become the first to ever do it in SEVEN STRAIGHT SEASONS. That means over the next 15 games, Julio needs to average a mere 76 yards per game to hit the 1,300-yard mark. I say he gets it done. Especially in the dynasty community, people are scared away from Julio because of his age. The 31-year-old remains arguably the best all-around WR in the league.

Austin Ekeler Is Still Really Good, but 2020 Might Suck

HOW DO YOU ONLY TARGET AUSTIN EKELER ONCE? In one of the worst pairings of QB and RB, Tyrod Taylor seemingly has no interest throwing to his RBs, even when that RB has been THE BEST receiving back by yards per target of ALL-TIME. It was baffling. Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen was the interim OC for half of last season and I don’t think there is any way he game-planned 0 targets to Ekeler. So I am putting this one firmly on Tyrod. The move to Herbert can’t come soon enough.

Cam Newton is BACK, Baby!

Over 16 games from 2018-2019, Cam Newton rushed for just 4 touchdowns with a high of 63 yards in a single game. This was the result of ankle injuries. He ended up missing almost all of 2019 and spent much of the 2020 offseason unsigned. The former MVP finally signed with New England in July and in Week 1 put up a vintage Cam performance with a 15-75-2 rushing line. If he can avoid injuries, Cam might be a league winner.

The Raiders Offense Might Be Really Good

Heading into the 2019 season the Raiders were a laughingstock in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. Many questioned whether the TV duo of Mayock/Gruden had a clue what they were doing. After 10 games they were a surprising 6-4 and in the playoff hunt. It, unfortunately, didn’t last but it was enough to sway my opinion. They were doing good work there. Derek Carr had his best season by ANY/A and QBR. Carr became just the fifth quarterback to finish a season with a completion percentage above 70%. He picked up where he left off in Week 1 completing 22/30 passes (73.3%) without a turnover. This opened up running lanes for Josh Jacobs. Jacobs had his first three-touchdown game and also his best game as a receiver (4-46-0). Henry Ruggs looked great in his debut, adding a new dynamic to the offense. I really wish Tyrell Williams didn’t get hurt because they are missing another reliable veteran, but I think this offense will surprise many in 2020. They aren’t going to put up 40 points but they are going to be very efficient with a low turnover rate.

Five Players and Situations I’ll Be Watching Closely in Week 1

It’s been a wild year but the NFL is still pushing on as best as they can, and that means the fantasy season is in full swing. Will we see a higher rate of rookie struggles? Will COVID outbreaks create unexpected breakout seasons from backups? It is going to be weird. Here are some players and situations that will likely have a big impact on fantasy success this year.

Tyler Higbee

Will the dominant streak to end 2019 keep up? Probably not, but will he remain a key piece of the offense? I really think so. Two things need to happen. Higbee needs to be clearly ahead of Gerald Everett and he needs to be ahead of the WR3. Last year these two things only happened thanks to injuries. But when given the opportunity, Higbee put on a show rarely seen from the TE position. Did he do enough for McVay to change his offense? I’ve been very high on Higbee this offseason. We’ll get answers Sunday night.

Devin Singletary vs Zack Moss

Singletary had a great rookie season splitting time with Frank Gore. He put up 969 yards on only 180 touches. Still, it wasn’t a surprise to see the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on Zack Moss. Will it be a true split or more of a 70/30 committee? Both players were discounted in drafts due to the uncertainty so if one player is clearly ahead it will represent a big value to fantasy teams.

The Buccaneers...everything on the offense

This entire offense is intriguing. The battle for WR1 has already seen the edge go to Chris Godwin with Mike Evans doubtful to play Week 1. At Tight End can Gronk return after a year off without missing a beat? Can he stay healthy? It is a pretty safe bet he will be the preferred goal line target as long as he stays on the field. I want to see if he can offer more. At running back, Ronald Jones had a respectful 2019 and cracked 1000 yards from scrimmage. That didn’t stop the Bucs from bringing in a LOT of competition. They drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third and the early thinking was these two would compete for the top role. Vaughn seemed to fall behind with the lack of a full offseason. Then the Bucs signed LeSean McCoy in August. He wasn’t productive in 2019 and couldn’t beat out a mediocre group in Kansas City but some seemed to think he would be the starter. THEN the Bucs signed Leonard Fournette after he got released. Fournette put up over 1,600 yards last year. I think he was a bit underappreciated by the fantasy community. On paper, he should easily slide into the lead role. But it might take a few weeks for him to get acquainted. This is a talented RB group and I don’t think any victory laps should be taken in just one week.

The cherry on top of this powerhouse sundae is of course Tom Brady. 43-year-old Brady is quite a bit removed from what he was even 3 years ago. Can this offense hide the blemishes? How bad could even the worst quarterback be with this offense? We’ll get our first hint of an answer in a matchup of legendary QBs in Brees vs Brady.

The Most Intriguing Rookie is….

The easy, obvious answer is Joe Burrow. I expect him to be good, but I won’t be surprised if he struggles in Week 1 either. Not much intrigue there for me. No, I’m going to give it to Jonathan Taylor. Colts HC Frank Reich has called it a one-one situation (instead of 1-2 or A-B). Marlon Mack will start as the incumbent and has reportedly been a great mentor to Jonathan Taylor. That is nice and all but in terms of talent...Mack is a fine player but Jonathan Taylor can be a game-changer at the position. They will ride the hot hand. I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor starts to chip away at the split percentage within his first few touches. At the very least, I am looking for some signs of explosiveness from Taylor.

Do the Titans Have a Few Superstars in the Making or Was it a Mirage?

The Ryan Tannehill reclamation project was a special thing to watch last year. It took them all the way to the AFC Championship Game where they were no match for the eventual champions. Tannehill threw for an incredible 27 TD and 6 INT in 13 total starts including playoffs. However, he was also sacked a LOT. That is concerning for a quarterback that missed the end of 2017 and all of 2018 with knee injuries. His touchdown percentage is also due to regress.

Despite that, you can’t simply write off 2019 as a fluke. Tannehill had tremendous success throwing deep and he led the league in yards per completion while having a low interception rate. The biggest key to that was the emergence of rookie receiver A.J. Brown. Minimum 75 targets, Browns 12.8 yards per target was the best ever for a rookie and the third-best since 1992 which is as far back as the data goes. That is incredible. The list of rookie receivers to have 10+ yards per target is extremely strong. He is certainly due for regression but also a big uptick in volume.

The week 1 matchup will be a big challenge. Playing in Denver is never the easiest and they have a stout secondary. The Broncos added A.J. Bouye and have two of the top PFF graded safeties from last year. I want to see Tannehill flash more of that MVP potential he showcased last year.