Sorry for the delay on the next article everyone. I had been pretty sick the past week or so. (Note from editor: and Editor Zach is very slow) You know the kind of sick where you start seeing cartoon characters Who Framed Roger Rabit style? Anyway, I'm back now and here to bring you a breakdown on the Chargers!
Maybe it's just the Bolt but do the Chargers remind anyone else of Pikachu? I'm not afraid to admit that Pokemon was my first introduction to the concept of "electricity". Pokemon seems like a fitting theme for the Chargers too, because they have so many receivers this upcoming season it feels like many people are just saying "I choose you" before looking at the stats. Let's take a look shall we?
2016 Chargers Passing Attempts
Last season the Chargers attempted 580 passes which were good enough for 15th best in the league. However, it is a serious step down from the year prior when they attempted 661 passes and were 3rd in the league. I'm tempted to say that can be explained by the emergence of Melvin Gordon, except that in both 2015 and 2016 the Chargers were 22nd in rushing attempts. In fact, they attempted a whole six more rushes in 2016 than 2015! What a significant amount!
So what might explain the serious downgrade in passing attempts? The change in Offensive Coordinator from Frank Reich to Ken Whisenhunt may have something to do with it. The 578 passes attempted by Rivers were the most by a Whisenhunt coached quarterback since 2008 Kurt Warner. The third most? 544 attempted by Rivers back in 2013.
So now that we have a reason the team was sparking more than being a lightning bolt last season-let's take a look at what the breakdown looked like:
Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TD
|
Tyrell Williams
|
119
|
69
|
1059
|
7
|
Dontrelle Inman
|
97
|
58
|
810
|
4
|
Antonio Gates
|
93
|
53
|
548
|
7
|
Travis Benjamin
|
75
|
47
|
677
|
4
|
Melvin Gordon
|
57
|
41
|
419
|
2
|
Hunter Henry
|
53
|
36
|
478
|
8
|
It's pretty impressive that Rivers had the season he did when Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman were his top options. I've come to love Tyrell, but I don't think anyone would have expected this at the beginning of last season.
2017 Predictions
During the draft, there was a reason to believe the Chargers would throw more this year. They drafted Mike Williams with their 7th overall pick! A healthy Keenan Allen also meant this offense would surely be better!
The train derailed a bit with the news that Mike Williams is suffering from a herniated disc. Those injuries are no joke, and he's currently on the PUP list for the preseason. I could easily see that extending into the regular season.
There's still reason to be optimistic if you're a Chargers fan though. Keenan Allen is a true talent, and his return means good things for this offense. I believe the Chargers will throw slightly more this season, and Rivers will beat his own 2nd place on Whisenhunt's list. I expect an increase to 590 passes attempted this season.
If you're looking for the top target of this offense, look no further than the aforementioned Allen. I know many have reported his demise, and he seemingly gets injured easier than Eugene from Hey Arnold but I can't stop loving the guy. When he's on the field, it's legendary and he's the one that Phillip Rivers will want to use his Master Balls on. I expect Keenan Allen to see 125 targets.
Did you know that the Chargers haven't had two receivers break 100 targets since the 2013 season? That can largely be attributed to health issues. That's going to change this year, and I think "Lord" Tyrell Williams is going to be the guy to do it. Say what you will about Mike Williams, but rookies struggle to make an impact to begin with. Add a back injury, and even if he plays the outlook isn't great. Especially when Adam Schefter of all people has been adamant that Mike Williams entire season is in doubt. Tyrell will see 105 targets this season.
Who ends up the third top target on the team likely depends on whether there is any truth to the rumor that Keenan Allen will line up primarily in the slot. If he does, it's Dontrelle Inman's job. If he doesn't, then Travis Benjamin is much more suited to playing the slot. I personally like Inman a little more, but feel that Benjamin in the slot would make a little more sense for the team. 80 looks will go to Benjamin this season.
Remember when Melvin Gordon was a "bust"? Man, he must have heard the whispers because he could not be stopped in the Red Zone last season. With Danny Woodhead gone, he showed particularly well in the passing game putting up 10.2 yards per rec.
That number was the 9th best among running backs who had at least 30 targets come their way last season. I think he will see even more targets this season, leading to a healthy 60. The running backs as a group will see 80.
That brings us to the tight ends. Before you get ready to anoint Hunter Henry the new sheriff in town let's take a look at some numbers.
Weeks 1-7
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Hunter Henry
|
29
|
20
|
326
|
3
|
Antonio Gates
|
30
|
17
|
119
|
2
|
*Gates did not play weeks 3 or 4
Weeks 8-16
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Hunter Henry
|
24
|
16
|
152
|
5
|
Antonio Gates
|
63
|
36
|
430
|
5
|
So when Gates was healthy, Rivers clearly favored him over Henry. If you only paid attention to the first half of the season you may think that Henry was clearly better, but not quite. Henry had a very good rookie season, but I'm not sure Gates is totally dead. I believe Henry will see 70 targets. However, Gates will still see 60 as a trusted option for Rivers.
The other 70 targets will go to Dontrelle Inman, Branden Oliver, Kenjon Barner, and other end of the roster players. Of course, if Mike Williams actually plays this season that throws a big wrench in these projections. If anything, I think he'd impact Benjamin more than Keenan or Tyrell. One of those guys could be relegated to the slot while Williams plays outside.
Now here are the projections:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Keenan Allen
|
125
|
88
|
968
|
5
|
Tyrell Williams
|
105
|
63
|
945
|
5
|
Travis Benjamin
|
80
|
48
|
650
|
4
|
Melvin Gordon
|
60
|
42
|
430
|
3
|
Hunter Henry
|
70
|
46
|
600
|
7
|
Antonio Gates
|
60
|
36
|
400
|
5
|
Bonus:
Let's assume Schefter is wrong for once and Mike Williams does play the majority of the season. What can we expect from the rookie? You could probably take away 5-10 targets from Allen and Tyrell each, but the majority of his work will come at the expense of Travis Benjamin while Keenan Allen moves into the slot. I still expect Williams to miss at least a couple games, so I'd say best case scenario is he sees 75 targets which looks like this:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Mike Williams
|
75
|
45
|
540
|
4
|
Dynasty Slant
Keenan Allen is the 26th player off the board according to the most recent Dynasty League Football ADP. I'd love to say that I'm still bought in at that price, but seeing guys like Jarvis Landry, Stefon Diggs, and Demaryius Thomas go after him is a tough pill to swallow. I guess I'm not as much team Keenan Allen as I thought I was.
Tyrell Williams is currently the 101st player off the board, and I somewhat regret trading him for a 2018 1st last year. I know Mike Williams could have an impact on him, but I like to believe when undrafted free agents make an impact the team takes notice. I know people will argue they wouldn't have spent a top seven pick on a receiver if they were happy with Williams, but they could also be making a comment on the health of Allen. He's going after the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Breshad Perriman, and Jeremy Maclin. The juice is very worth the squeeze.
Travis Benjamin is not someone I'd invest heavily in, but he is currently going as the 253rd played off the board. You could do much worse than taking a flier on someone who could see over 80 targets in a strong offense this season. I won't even bother listing the players he's going after because it's a lot.
I'm all aboard the Melvin Gordon train, but I also think he's a bit too pricey as the 16th played off the board. His yards per carry are a bit of a concern, but I do like what he brings to the table. Now is not the best time to try to acquire him.
Hunter Henry is the 75th played off the board, and that too seems a little high. I know he had a great rookie season, but you can get the rookie class tight ends later in the draft. You could also get Eric Ebron 22 picks later according to ADP and that's a trade off I'd definitely take.
I'd be remiss if I didn't quickly touch on Mike Williams. He's currently the 56th player off the board still. That's way too high with his current concerns. However, if he does fall any further he strikes me as a value. He recently went in the 12th round of a dynasty startup draft I was in, and I'm kicking myself for not pulling the trigger earlier.
I really like this offense as a whole. I just think that some pieces of it are being too highly valued, while others are not being properly valued at all. For this season I choose you Tyrell Williams.
Until next time,
Rek
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com ,and dynastyleaguefootball.com
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