For today's Breaking Down The Targets we're going to jump in the time machine. The year is 2006 and a young me is watching football in a hotel room with his brother in law. I wasn't into football at all yet, and the game we were watching was the Patriots vs Jets. When I don't have a rooting interest, I always go for the underdogs so I rooted vocally for the Jets despite my brother in law's love of the Pats. Somehow, the Chad Pennington Jets managed to pull it off and beat the Patriots.
I started to become a fan loosely until 2007. Before the start of the season, I told my dad that I thought I was a Jets fan. That's when he did me the greatest kindness a father can do for his son and said, "No son. You're a Giants fan. That's final". Little did I know he saved me from a life of misery.
Fast forward some butt fumbles, broken jaws, and a quarterback who literally has "hack" in his name later and the Jets have become the butt of all jokes. It's so bad that the franchise own fans have claimed J.E.T.S. stands for Just Endure The Suffering. You'd think that maybe there would be a positive outlook this year. Not quite the case. In fact, the Jets should probably change their name to "The Tanks" for this season, just in case they weren't being obvious about their intentions.
2016 Jets Passing Attempts
Last season the Jets attempted 550 passes which were tied with the Patriots attempts for 23rd in the NFL. Hey, the Jets did something just as well the Patriots! That's cause for celebration! That's where the similarities end. While the Patriots were 4th in passing yards and 6th in TDS, the Jets were 27th in passing yards and 28th in TDS.
The Fitzmagic from 2015 wore offr as Ryan Fitzpatrick returned to being a frog instead of a starting caliber quarterback. Bryce Petty didn't fair much better in the 133 passes he attempted. In fact, he was statistically similar to Fitzpatrick except for you know...worse.
So let's take a look at what the offense did with those 550 passes from last season
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Brandon Marshall
|
128
|
59
|
788
|
3
|
Quincy Enunwa
|
105
|
58
|
857
|
3
|
Robby Anderson
|
78
|
42
|
587
|
2
|
Bilal Powell
|
74
|
58
|
388
|
2
|
Matt Forte
|
43
|
30
|
263
|
1
|
Charone Peake
|
35
|
19
|
186
|
0
|
Jalin Marshall
|
23
|
14
|
162
|
2
|
Eric Decker
|
21
|
9
|
194
|
2
|
Brandon Marshall was released by the Jets at his request and found his way across town. Eric Decker has taken his talents to Nashville. Quincy Enunwa has gone down with a neck injury and will be a free agent after this season. There is going to be a lot of opportunity on this roster, but who will be throwing the receivers the ball?
2017 Predictions
Enter Josh McCown. The answer to the question "which quarterback doesn't make it seem like we are tanking but will still play poorly enough for us to get our franchise guy in the next draft?". His resume includes helping the Buccaneers get Jameis Winston, helping the Browns get both Corey Coleman, and helping the Raiders get a few decent seasons of Darren McFadden.
Don't fret Jets fans, McCown has never attempted more than 408 passes because he's never been the starter for 16 games. The Jets will likely want to see what they have in Christian Hackenberg or Bryce Petty in what is amounting to a lost season anyway. If that doesn't inspire confidence, I don't know what will!
It's hard to say I see the Jets throwing a ton this season. I'm going to peg them for 500 pass attempts. They will lose a bunch of games, but I actually expect their defense to still be decent. Even when they are playing behind, it seems like the plan is to rush, rush, and then rush some more. Anyone who grew up playing the Sonic the Hedgehog games can appreciate that.
Robby Anderson is the only one on the team who has secured his place as a starter. There was some thought that his fight with a police officer at a music festival in May might cost him his roster spot, but now he's clearly the top option for the team. Being the top option for this team is a little like being first in line for a new flip phone. No one is really fighting for that position. Regardless, he should 95 targets this coming season.
By all accounts, Bilal Powell is expected to be the lead rusher for the Jets this season. I still expect him to be very involved in the passing game though-mostly because of the lack of other proven options on the roster. He will see 80 targets.
It's really hard to say who the Jets WR2 will be. I believe you could make a case for Chad Hansen, Jalin Marshall (when he comes back from suspension), Chris Harper, Charone Peake, or the host of other guys that the Jets have on the roster at the moment. However, I'm going to go with the guy they invested the most draft capital in and say it's going to be ArDarius Stewart. Stewart was productive for Alabama in two seasons despite their run first offense, and Saban has a good track record producing guys like Julio Jones and Amari Cooper for the NFL. He will see 80 targets come his way as well.
You may be thinking well obviously Matt Forte is next. He's the most proven target in the passing game outside of Powell. However, I have no idea why a guy whose name literally means "a thing at which someone excels" is on the team. The Jets don't seem like the kind of team to allow anyone to excel.
I really feel for the guy. He's had a great career only to likely see it end on a tanking team. If he somehow ends up getting released or cut, I'd expect Elijah McGuire to step right in. In the mean time though, I'll say Forte sees 50 targets.
Who will be on the field in three wide receiver sets is a question that is likely answered by who takes the Jets WR2 role. Chris Harper has been showing well in the pre-season, and at the moment I'd expect the role to be his. I wouldn't expect a whole lot from him, but that should be good for about 45 targets.
Of course, just because Harper initially winning the role doesn't necessarily mean I see him sticking in the role. That means targets aren't going to be consolidated, and I could easily see the Jets giving Chad Hansen a chance. In fact, Hansen played the most snaps of any receiver in the Jets' second preseason game. It's also hard to ignore the fact that Chad Hansen had 92 receptions, 1249 yards, and 11 touchdowns while playing in the Pac 12 last season. Does the name Hansen remind anyone else of the 90's band? Just me? Well, anyway, he will Mmmbop his way to 45 targets.
In the last two seasons, the Jets have targeted their tight end a total of 53 times. That's 28 last season, and 25 the season before. Both of those totals were dead last.There has been a lot of praise for former second round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins this off season, but you also have to keep in mind that he is suspended for two games. Coupled with the lack of attention to the tight end position the last few years, I'm having trouble seeing a true breakout for him. That said, he does have one of the more athletic profiles on the Jets and they do have quarterbacks that have trouble throwing down field so he should see some work. It also helps that the new OC, John Morton, may be able to break this lousy trend. He will see about 40 targets come his way this season.
If you're not totally bored by reviewing what should be the worst offense in the league this season, you may find yourself asking where those other 65 targets are going. Well, they'll be going to the guys I listed as possibilities to be wide receiver starters. Some of those will also likely go to Jordan Leggett, and Elijah McGuire.
Here are my projections which will be a bit longer than usual since I need to account for the lack of consolidation:
There is some good news finally. Well, good news if you're a fantasy player and not a Jets fan. According to the most recent Dynasty League Football ADP, Robby Anderson is going as the 189th player off the board. He's going in the same range as Mohammed Sanu, Tavon Austin, and Wayne Gallman. Even though it's the Jets, I'd take the guy who has a chance to be the WR1 for his team over any of those guys.
On the flip side, Bilal Powell is currently going as the 116th player off the board. I get it, he's been great in the passing game and is finally getting the chance to start. However, he's 28 and going to be playing on a Jets offense where he's the main option. Unless on a very strong contender, I can't advise taking him that high.
Here's an interesting one: ArDarius Stewart is going ahead of Robby Anderson. I could see where it's Stewart who emerges as the top guy as opposed to Anderson so that's not unreasonable. Stewart is going as the 177th player off the board, and seems like a value there as well.
Matt Forte is the 190th player off the board. I love the guy,but I'm not paying for him in any format except the deepest of the leagues. His best days are well behind him, and hopefully he can find a better team to live out the rest of his career than the Jets.
Neither Chris Harper or Chad Hansen made the top 272 players according to the most recent ADP. I'm definitely not on board the Harper hype train, but Hansen is intriguing. He is coming off a pretty solid college season, and if he shows any flashes he has a great path to opportunity. If you're in a league with taxi squads, he's someone I might look to stash.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the 195th player off the board. I get that he has some talent and may be turning things around, but that still seems a bit high for him. He is probably the 2nd best (if not the best) receiving talent athleticism wise on the Jets right now, so he easily could make me regret these words but I'm not going to be the one to take him unless I can get him in the 20th round or later.
I know what I wrote seems pretty harsh on the Jets, but there was no sugar coating it. I actually watch all the Jets game when they aren't on at the same time as the Giants, so I still sort of root for them. The best thing for them would be to have a losing season and "Suck for Sam". Remind me to write my dad a thank you note for being a fan of the Giants. We may have Ereck Flowers, but that doesn't come close to comparing to what these fans have to deal with.
You may be thinking well obviously Matt Forte is next. He's the most proven target in the passing game outside of Powell. However, I have no idea why a guy whose name literally means "a thing at which someone excels" is on the team. The Jets don't seem like the kind of team to allow anyone to excel.
I really feel for the guy. He's had a great career only to likely see it end on a tanking team. If he somehow ends up getting released or cut, I'd expect Elijah McGuire to step right in. In the mean time though, I'll say Forte sees 50 targets.
Who will be on the field in three wide receiver sets is a question that is likely answered by who takes the Jets WR2 role. Chris Harper has been showing well in the pre-season, and at the moment I'd expect the role to be his. I wouldn't expect a whole lot from him, but that should be good for about 45 targets.
Of course, just because Harper initially winning the role doesn't necessarily mean I see him sticking in the role. That means targets aren't going to be consolidated, and I could easily see the Jets giving Chad Hansen a chance. In fact, Hansen played the most snaps of any receiver in the Jets' second preseason game. It's also hard to ignore the fact that Chad Hansen had 92 receptions, 1249 yards, and 11 touchdowns while playing in the Pac 12 last season. Does the name Hansen remind anyone else of the 90's band? Just me? Well, anyway, he will Mmmbop his way to 45 targets.
In the last two seasons, the Jets have targeted their tight end a total of 53 times. That's 28 last season, and 25 the season before. Both of those totals were dead last.There has been a lot of praise for former second round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins this off season, but you also have to keep in mind that he is suspended for two games. Coupled with the lack of attention to the tight end position the last few years, I'm having trouble seeing a true breakout for him. That said, he does have one of the more athletic profiles on the Jets and they do have quarterbacks that have trouble throwing down field so he should see some work. It also helps that the new OC, John Morton, may be able to break this lousy trend. He will see about 40 targets come his way this season.
If you're not totally bored by reviewing what should be the worst offense in the league this season, you may find yourself asking where those other 65 targets are going. Well, they'll be going to the guys I listed as possibilities to be wide receiver starters. Some of those will also likely go to Jordan Leggett, and Elijah McGuire.
Here are my projections which will be a bit longer than usual since I need to account for the lack of consolidation:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Robby Anderson
|
95
|
50
|
720
|
4
|
Bilal Powell
|
80
|
60
|
420
|
3
|
ArDarius Stewart
|
80
|
48
|
552
|
2
|
Matt Forte
|
50
|
35
|
262
|
1
|
Chris Harper
|
45
|
27
|
283
|
2
|
Chad Hansen
|
45
|
27
|
310
|
2
|
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
|
40
|
23
|
253
|
2
|
Dynasty Slant
On the flip side, Bilal Powell is currently going as the 116th player off the board. I get it, he's been great in the passing game and is finally getting the chance to start. However, he's 28 and going to be playing on a Jets offense where he's the main option. Unless on a very strong contender, I can't advise taking him that high.
Here's an interesting one: ArDarius Stewart is going ahead of Robby Anderson. I could see where it's Stewart who emerges as the top guy as opposed to Anderson so that's not unreasonable. Stewart is going as the 177th player off the board, and seems like a value there as well.
Matt Forte is the 190th player off the board. I love the guy,but I'm not paying for him in any format except the deepest of the leagues. His best days are well behind him, and hopefully he can find a better team to live out the rest of his career than the Jets.
Neither Chris Harper or Chad Hansen made the top 272 players according to the most recent ADP. I'm definitely not on board the Harper hype train, but Hansen is intriguing. He is coming off a pretty solid college season, and if he shows any flashes he has a great path to opportunity. If you're in a league with taxi squads, he's someone I might look to stash.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the 195th player off the board. I get that he has some talent and may be turning things around, but that still seems a bit high for him. He is probably the 2nd best (if not the best) receiving talent athleticism wise on the Jets right now, so he easily could make me regret these words but I'm not going to be the one to take him unless I can get him in the 20th round or later.
I know what I wrote seems pretty harsh on the Jets, but there was no sugar coating it. I actually watch all the Jets game when they aren't on at the same time as the Giants, so I still sort of root for them. The best thing for them would be to have a losing season and "Suck for Sam". Remind me to write my dad a thank you note for being a fan of the Giants. We may have Ereck Flowers, but that doesn't come close to comparing to what these fans have to deal with.
*Sam Darnold-giving serious thought to staying in school
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com , spotrac.com, and dynastyleaguefootball.com
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