It's hard to say which franchise has become the bigger joke in the football community: The Jets or the Browns. I will say this though, the Browns seem to always find a way to make at least a few offensive pieces relevant despite not winning many games. Garbage time points are still points.
This season feels a little different. Maybe it's because it's Hue Jackson's second season, and there were some nice signs last season. Maybe it's because Deshone Kizer seems like he could be a pretty good quarterback. Really, I think I just want to think that though since Cleveland fans have been through the ringer the past few months with their basketball teams. They deserve some nice things. I also have a friend from Cleveland who threatens violence upon me if I don't say nice things about it. So this is for them as well!
2016 Browns Passing Attempts
Last season the Browns attempted 567 passes which tied them with the Seahawks for 18th in the league. However, they finished 28th in total yards, and 30th in touchdowns. Those passes were primarily split between Cody Kessler, Josh McCown and Robert Griffin III There was also a sprinkling of Kevin Hogan, a small dose of Charlie 'Clipboard Jesus' Whitehurst and even Terrelle Pryor threw 9 passes.
They did a bit better in the rushing department finishing 19th in yards,and 17th in touchdowns. That was largely due to Isaiah "Scare Crow" Crowell. People keep saying the breakout is coming, but when a player has over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns it already happened. This is one crow who is ready to take over as commander of the Night's Watch.
Here's what the passing breakdown looked like:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Terrelle Pryor
|
140
|
77
|
1007
|
4
|
Gary Barnidge
|
82
|
55
|
612
|
2
|
Duke Johnson
|
74
|
53
|
514
|
0
|
Corey Coleman
|
73
|
33
|
413
|
3
|
Andrew Hawkins
|
54
|
33
|
324
|
3
|
Isaiah Crowell
|
53
|
40
|
319
|
0
|
Terrelle Pryor is gone after showing he could produce even with some bad quarterbacks throwing the ball. I don't blame him. Barnidge was released after the team drafted David Njoku. Andrew Hawkins is no longer with the team either. That means there are lots of targets up for grabs.
2017 Predictions
According to recent reports, Cody Kessler has fallen far behind in the Browns quarterback competition. There's even some rumors that Brock Osweiler will be the one to start. That'd be pretty fitting with Oz and Scare Crow on the same team, but I just don't see it happening. I think by the time all is said and done, Deshone Kizer will be named the starter.
It's been a while since we talked about a rookie quarterback, and I didn't have either Trubisky or Watson starting the full season at the time (though maybe I should change that). Just as a refresher, the most passes attempted by a rookie since 2000 were the 627 attempted by Andrew Luck in 2012. In fact, since 2000, there have only 14 rookie quarterbacks to start all 16 games their rookie season. Of those, only 7 have attempted more than 500 passes.
I think Kizer will break that threshold, but only because I expect the Browns to be playing from behind so often. If he starts, I believe Kizer will attempt about 535 passes for the season. This may be one of the few times I've actually predicted a decrease from the previous season. But hey, we know it happens so I'm probably wrong about a few of my other predictions!
You may find yourself asking who's the WR1 with Terrelle Pryor taking his talents to Washington? None other than Corey Coleman. His 45% catch rate may look pretty gross if examined too closely, but you have to remember as we just discussed in the Rams article that catch rate is pretty heavily impacted by QB play. Coleman also showed well in his rookie season despite the low catch rate. I'd expect him to see about 130 passes come his way.
Remember when we talked about Kenny Britt managing to put up a great season with nothing at QB last season? Man he came back fast! It's like everywhere you're going you're reading about Kenny Britt. There's no reason Britt shouldn't see 115 targets.
My next pick is a bit unconventional, but I'm going to say Duke Johnson will again be the third most targeted receiver. He is being worked as a receiver during camp, and is apparently showing very well. He'll see an uptick to 85 targets this season, and likely make me regret trading him in one of my dynasty leagues.
Once again we find ourselves looking at a team with a promising young tight end in David Njoku. You might remember from the Buccaneers article that rookie tight ends seem to never really produce much in their first season. I'm not really sure why the Browns got rid of Barnidge so early, though I guess they must like Seth Devalve enough to let him play while Njoku develops. About 80 targets will come the way of the tight end group this season, and I honestly am not sure how it'll pan out. So I'm going to do an even split for Devalve and Njoku.
Isaiah Crowell showed he's no slouch in the passing game last year, and the team found a way to get both him and Duke Johnson involved. I don't see that changing at all with Duke Johnson getting on the field more playing as a receiver as well. He'll see right around 50 targets again, and add additional value to what he's doing on the ground.
The other 75 targets will be split between Ricardo Louis, Rishard Higgins,and other end of the roster types. The Browns really have the incentive to consolidate this offense. You really want to be one big solid cohesive team instead of spreading out over smaller parts. Ok, I promise that's the one and only poop joke I'll make in this article.
Here are the projections:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Catches
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Corey Coleman
|
130
|
68
|
918
|
5
|
Kenny Britt
|
115
|
69
|
979
|
5
|
Duke Johnson
|
85
|
60
|
630
|
3
|
Seth Devalve
|
40
|
30
|
330
|
2
|
David Njoku
|
40
|
24
|
264
|
3
|
Isaiah Crowell
|
50
|
38
|
285
|
1
|
Dynasty Slant
According to the most recent Dynasty League Football ADP, Corey Coleman is the 56th played off the board at the moment. I'd be buying at that price. I thought the hype was getting out of control, but if he is really going after Donte Moncrief and Ameer Abdullah I'm buying. He is the most likely to become a target monster for an emerging offense, and I feel like the projections I put him on are even playing it a bit conservative.
Kenny Britt is the 100th player off the board, and that seems like good value for him too. He is coming off 1000 yards between Case Keenum and Jared Goff. That's not an easy feat. I recognize he's almost 29 but he also has a former first-round pedigree!
I really like Duke Johnson, but I can't get behind him being the 109th player off the board. He's going ahead of the likes of Sterling Shepard, Adam Thielen, and Giovani Bernard who is basically the best case scenario for Bernard. The news that he's seeing some work as a receiver shouldn't have elevated his value that much. I still like him but he's become way too pricey.
David Njoku is the 97th player off the board, and my advice is going to be the same as the other young tight ends. Wait until he "disappoints" this season, and his owner gets impatient. He'll be a great buy next off-season.
Isaiah Crowell is the 48th player off the board. I like him but I can't get behind that price at all. Sell him now. I'm happy with him as my high-end RB3 or low-end RB2 but that high-end RB2 territory. I'm pretty sure you'll be happy with whatever people are offering for him right now.
There's a lot to like about this offense. Just like there is a lot to like about the many tourist destinations of Cleveland. As a wise man once said, "Cleveland Rocks!". Why would anyone ever leave Cleveland!? Ok, so that may be an exaggeration but it is a nice young offense that may be about to step forward.
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
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