Lopsided Trades: Breaking Down The Targets: Denver Broncos

I've always sort of liked the Broncos. It might be because I like the color orange. It also might be because I had a friend in college who used to love to shout "Knowshon" at random moments. Either way, I think they are a very likable team.

One of the reasons the Broncos are one of the last teams I'm writing about though is they are a boring team. I don't mean they don't have some exciting offensive pieces. I mean there hasn't been much change on the offensive side of the ball for this coming season. In fact, there is a stat I'm going to share a little later that will show you the Broncos offensive game plan has more or less been the same since 2013.

2016 Broncos Passing Attempts

In their first season without Peyton Manning at the helm, the Broncos attempted 570 passes. Over the past three seasons they've gone from 9th in pass attempts with good Peyton Manning in 2014, to 13th in 2015 with bad Peyton/Brock to 17th overall in 2016. Despite it being the end of his career, the drop off from Manning to Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch was noticeable. The two combined threw for 285 yards less than Peyton/Brock did. Though in positive news, they did throw for one more touchdown!

You'd think the Broncos would actually try rushing the ball more with inexperienced QBS at the helm, but they actually had one less attempt in 2016 than 2015. Guess it's not that hard to understand when C.J. Anderson is your lead rusher. Let's take a look at what those passing attempts looked like last season.

Player Name	Targets	Recs	Yardage	TDS
Demaryius Thomas	144	90	1083	5
Emmanuel Sanders	137	79	1032	5
Devontae Booker	45	31	265	1
Virgil Green	37	22	231	1
Jordan Norwood	35	21	232	1
Jordan Taylor	25	16	209	1
C.J. Anderson	24	16	128	1
Bennie Fowler	24	11	145	2
A.J. Derby	20	16	160	0

There was a lot of target consolidation for the top two offensive play makers, and then the ball was spread as they searched for anyone to contribute after that. Remember that stat I mentioned earlier? Here it is: In 2013, the teams top two WRs (DT & Decker) accounted for 41% of the Broncos' targets. In 2014 with the loss of Decker & Welker but adding Sanders, it jumped up to 53%. In 2015, it was 51%. Last season, it was 49%. This is clearly an offense that has run through its two trusted receivers and will continue to do so.

2017 Predictions

We now know that Trevor Siemian is going to be the starter for this year. We also know the offense should look a bit different since Vance Joseph is now the head coach and Mike McCoy returns as offensive coordinator. Considering that Joseph is more of a defensive-minded coach we are going to look more at what McCoy's offenses have looked like historically.

In the past three seasons as offensive coordinator for the Chargers, McCoy's teams have never finished lower than 15th in pass attempts. They also have not finished worse than 10th in passing yards. This all seems to bode pretty well for the Broncos attempting to throw more this season. It is a bit of a difference between Phillip Rivers and Siemian, but Siemian showed well enough in his rookie season.

Speaking of Siemian, I wanted to see what company his first season as the starter puts him in. I know some are disappointed that Lynch didn't win the job because he has more "upside", but I'm curious if Siemian is just a game manager. The criteria I used is quarterbacks since 2000 who were in their first to third year, had a yards per attempt greater than 6.95, and int % less than 2.5. It's filtered by adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Query Results Table
							Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Year	Age	Draft	Tm	Lg	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	TD%	Int%	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	ANY/A	Y/G	W	L	T
1	Nick Foles	2013	24	3-88	PHI	NFL	13	10	203	317	64.04	2891	27	2	8.5	0.63	119.2	28	173	9.12	10.54	9.18	222.4	8	2	0
2	Dak Prescott	2016	23	4-135	DAL	NFL	16	16	311	459	67.76	3667	23	4	5	0.87	104.9	25	143	7.99	8.60	7.86	229.2	13	3	0
3	Robert Griffin	2012	22	1-2	WAS	NFL	15	15	258	393	65.65	3200	20	5	5.1	1.27	102.4	30	217	8.14	8.59	7.47	213.3	9	6	0
4	Derek Carr	2016	25	2-36	OAK	NFL	15	15	357	560	63.75	3937	28	6	5	1.07	96.7	16	79	7.03	7.55	7.20	262.5	12	3	0
5	Marcus Mariota	2016	23	1-2	TEN	NFL	15	15	276	451	61.20	3426	26	9	5.8	2.00	95.6	23	156	7.60	7.85	7.14	228.4	8	7	0
6	Russell Wilson	2013	25	3-75	SEA	NFL	16	16	257	407	63.14	3357	26	9	6.4	2.21	101.2	44	272	8.25	8.53	7.10	209.8	13	3	0
7	Matthew Stafford	2011	23	1-1	DET	NFL	16	16	421	663	63.50	5038	41	16	6.2	2.41	97.2	36	257	7.60	7.75	6.98	314.9	10	6	0
8	Josh Freeman	2010	22	1-17	TAM	NFL	16	16	291	474	61.39	3451	25	6	5.3	1.27	95.9	28	195	7.28	7.77	6.94	215.7	10	6	0
9	Russell Wilson	2014	26	3-75	SEA	NFL	16	16	285	452	63.05	3475	20	7	4.4	1.55	95.0	42	242	7.69	7.88	6.72	217.2	12	4	0
10	Colin Kaepernick	2013	26	2-36	SFO	NFL	16	16	243	416	58.41	3197	21	8	5	1.92	91.6	39	231	7.69	7.83	6.65	199.8	12	4	0
11	Cam Newton	2012	23	1-1	CAR	NFL	16	16	280	485	57.73	3869	19	12	3.9	2.47	86.2	36	244	7.98	7.65	6.65	241.8	7	9	0
12	Joe Flacco	2010	25	1-18	BAL	NFL	16	16	306	489	62.58	3622	25	10	5.1	2.04	93.6	40	294	7.41	7.51	6.39	226.4	12	4	0
13	Derek Carr	2015	24	2-36	OAK	NFL	16	16	350	573	61.08	3987	32	13	5.6	2.27	91.1	31	230	6.96	7.05	6.31	249.2	7	9	0
14	Joe Flacco	2009	24	1-18	BAL	NFL	16	16	315	499	63.13	3613	21	12	4.2	2.40	88.9	36	218	7.24	7.00	6.12	225.8	9	7	0
15	Trevor Siemian	2016	25	7-250	DEN	NFL	14	14	289	486	59.47	3401	18	10	3.7	2.06	84.6	31	187	7.00	6.81	6.04	242.9	8	6	0
16	Teddy Bridgewater	2015	23	1-32	MIN	NFL	16	16	292	447	65.32	3231	14	9	3.1	2.01	88.7	44	307	7.23	6.95	5.70	201.9	11	5	0
17	Case Keenum	2013	25		HOU	NFL	8	8	137	253	54.15	1760	9	6	3.6	2.37	78.2	19	201	6.96	6.60	5.40	220.0	0	8	0

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/23/2017.

Anytime you appear on the same list as Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Cam Newton that's a good thing. His season looked most similar to Joe Flacco, but it's still encouraging that he appeared on this list in his first season starting. Even if he becomes Flacco, Flacco had some very usable fantasy seasons until later in his career.

I'm not ready to say that he's going to become any of those guys, but I think we all owe Siemian an apology. I told myself before the start of this article that I wasn't going to make any immature jokes about his name, and now I'm very glad I didn't do so. I think we will see more pass attempts this year, and the Broncos will attempt 585 passes this season.

I don't think I even need to tell you who is going to be the top guy. 2016 was the lowest target share that Demaryius Thomas saw and he still saw 25%. There's absolutely no reason to believe that changes this year. He's the guy and has shown no signs of slowing down. He will see 152 targets come his way this season.

Right behind him is his partner in crime. Since joining the Broncos in 2014, Emmanuel Sanders has continually finished inside the top 30 WRS. Since joining the Broncos he ranks 8th among all WRs in targets (DT ranks 2nd). It really doesn't feel like he is treated like he has despite how many fantasy analysts shout he is underrated. He will see 135 targets this season.

Here's where things get interesting - who's going to be the third most targeted receiver for the Broncos? Their third most targeted player from last season is hurt. The guy after him is no longer on the team. This has also been a team that the past few years has not used three wide receiver sets all that often.

I believe that changes this season. Mike McCoy likes to use his third wide receiver, and I think the Broncos brought him in to make that sort of change. I believe the third round pick spent on Carlos Henderson says it all. I know he currently has a thumb injury, but I believe the job is his to lose. 70 looks will come his way.

I know it was only 20 targets, but the fact that A.J. Derby caught 16 of those says a lot about him. He's currently listed as third on the depth chart for tight ends, but he is clearly the best receiving option the Broncos have at the position. Also, is it just me or does it seem very fitting that a guy named Derby is on a team that is named after a horse? Anyway, he will see 55 targets come his way this season.

As I mentioned earlier, Devontae Booker was the third most targeted receiver and he is expected to miss some time due to his wrist injury. While that's been happening, De'Angelo Henderson has been set the field and our hearts ablaze. He was always involved in the passing game in college, and I could easily see him taking over at the very minimum the change of pace role for the Broncos. He's currently buried on the most up to date depth chart that the Broncos released, but I don't see that lasting very long.

That doesn't mean C.J. Anderson won't also be involved in the passing game. The 24 targets he saw last season were the fewest he's seen since his sophomore season. I expect that it jumps up even if just slightly to 30 targets.

I know some of you are keeping track at home and yeah that does leave 98 targets. Those will be divided up by Bennie Fowler, Cody Latimer, Virgil Green, and other end of the roster types. It also means any of the guys I mentioned could see their role expanded.

Here are what the projections look like:

Player Name	Targets	Recs	Yardage	TDS
Demaryius Thomas	152	95	1140	6
Emmanuel Sanders	135	77	1039	5
Carlos Henderson	70	42	567	3
A.J. Derby	50	35	350	3
De’Angelo Henderson	45	30	225	1
C.J. Anderson	30	23	184	1

Dynasty Slant

According to Dynasty League Football's most recent ADP, Demaryius Thomas is the 36th player off the board. Considering he's 29, I understand the price. In fact, I'm somewhat surprised he is still as high as he is but I guess everyone else has figured out that he's still incredibly consistent. If I'm a contender, I'm trying to buy DT hoping the owner is low on him and Siemian.

Sanders is the 65th player off the board, and that seems a little low. He's going in the same range as Cameron Meredith and Randall Cobb. I get he's 30, but if you're playing for a two or three year window this is the sort of guy you want on your roster. He will be paired with Thomas at least for this season and next. When they are together magic tends to happen.

Carlos Henderson is the 162nd player off the board and currently going after Devin Funchess, Jeremy McNichols, and Jonathan Stewart. That's a long winded way of saying the 22-year-old should be higher on your draft board. He received some hype early in the off-season but news of his thumb injury has seemed to drive his price way down.

A.J. Derby currently isn't even being drafted among the top 272 players. I know he was only a sixth round draft pick, but I do believe he gives the Broncos the best pass catching ability at the tight end position. He's at least worth a flier to see if he sticks.

Similarly, De'Angelo Henderson is not going among the top 272 players either - or at least he wasn't at the beginning of August which are the most recent DLF mocks. I realize my take on him was a little hot, especially considering the most updated depth chart. However, Booker has not been impressive when healthy. It's been rumored that Jamaal Charles may not even make the team. Additionally, C.J. Anderson has been injury prone and pedestrian as a starter. You could do much much worse than taking a shot on De'Angelo Henderson at the end of your roster.

Speaking of Anderson, he is currently going as the 79th player off the board. It's not terrible since I consider running back to be the most shallow position in terms of depth, but I would be avoiding him at that cost. You may find someone willing to sell him a little cheaper than that, and then he could be worth the price.

It's funny. I called this team boring to write about at the beginning, and then proceeded to say two relative unknowns will serve as a large part of the offense. I don't think anyone is going to approach stud numbers as long as Thomas and Sanders are still around, but you can definitely find some useful pieces on this roster still. It's all about betting on the right horse. I'll see myself out after that pun.