Aug 29, 2017

Breaking Down The Targets: Kansas City Chiefs


Travis Kelce has been my favorite tight end in the league for a while. It might be because he was the first one I ever drafted in dynasty. It could also be the fact that he had an awesome reality show. 

That's why it was with a heavy heart I traded him in one of my dynasty leagues this offseason for Tyler Eifert and a first rounder. Of course, the Chiefs then almost immediately released Jeremy Maclin just to spite me clearly. Let's take a gander at what that means for their offense.

2016 Chief's Passing Attempts

Would it surprise you to find out that the Kansas City Chiefs were 25th in pass attempts last season? What's that? No, because Alex Smith has a reputation as a game manager?  Hey, the 546 pass attempts were significantly up from the 473 they attempted in 2015!

The offense was 14th in rush attempts, which shouldn't really surprise anyone. Andy Reid has been known for years to love his run game. In fact, if you're looking for fantasy production targeting his running backs is always a good bet.

So where did all those pass attempts go?

Player Name
Targets
Recs
Yardage
TDS
Travis Kelce
117
85
1125
4
Tyreek Hill
83
61
593
6
Jeremy Maclin
76
44
536
2
Chris Conley
69
44
530
0
Albert Wilson
51
31
279
2
Spencer Ware
42
33
447
2
Charcandrick West
34
28
188
2
Demetrius Harris
31
17
123
1

You may already know that Travis Kelce was the TE1 last year. It was the lowest scoring TE1 year in recent history, but hey he still rose to the top. Tyreek Hill burst onto the scene with a ton of long touchdowns. Jeremy Maclin was hurt and is now gone from the team.

2017 Predictions

As much as we want Patrick Mahomes to be the starter that isn't happening. Alex Smith is still going to be the one slinging the ball this year. Hey, the positive news is the 489 passes that Smith attempted last year were a three year high!  He also had his most passing yards in three years! 

I don't know if you guys heard because it's not like it's all over the internet or anything-but Spencer Ware got hurt. Kareem Hunt is now going to be the starter for the Chiefs, and while I like him they may not want to lean on a rookie to run the ball as much as in years past.  I believe that means we see a slight uptick in the Chiefs' pass attempts this season to a grand total of 550!

Before we get to who will be the biggest beneficiary, I want to bring your attention once again to Graham Barfield. He posted this chart back on June 2nd.

As you can see in games where Jeremy Maclin didn't play, Travis Kelce saw his production go up drastically. In seems like Alex Smith realized what all fantasy owners already knew.  Travis Kelce is a beast worthy of his attention. Based on these numbers,  I don't think it's crazy to say Travis Kelce will see 127 targets.

Next up is Tyreek Hill. Considering the hype he's gotten all offseason, I don't think this choice will surprise any of you. I am worried that he's a gadget player in the vein of Percy Harvin, but you also have to remember that Harvin did have some very productive years in Minnesota. As long as the scheme fits, I think Hill can destroy opposing defenses. He will see 110 targets come his way this season.

Fun fact-last season was the first since 2013 in which Andy Reid had at least three receivers that were targeted 60 or more times. I think that trend continues this season. Additionally, Reid recently gave a vote of confidence to Chris Conley, the WR2 on his depth chart.



 In my inaugural rookie draft a few years ago, I traded two thirds to my good friend (and editor) Zach for John Brown. One of those thirds turned out to be Chris Conley who he really wanted to draft. Conley had become a bit of inside joke in that league, but after how he looked last season I'm starting to think he won't be soon. I believe he will see 90 targets this season.

I mentioned earlier how Andy Reid's running back often finishes as a top guy in fantasy. That's because of how many passes they tend to see come their way. Last season the RB group saw 93 targets. 2015 was a down year where they only saw 72, but that can be largely attributed to Jamaal Charles only playing 5 games. In 2014, it was 89. This is going to be a group that sees a bunch of targets, and the charge is going to be led by Kareem Hunt who will see 50. The running backs will combine for 85 targets.

It may not be the most exciting proposition to be Alex Smith's third wide receiver, but someone has to fill that role. I know one of my league mates is very excited about the prospect of Jehu Chesson, but I believe we are about a year too early for that. The most likely scenario is that Albert Wilson wins the role, and he sees about 65 targets.

That leaves 73 targets for the rest of the roster. That'll go to guys like De'Anthony Thomas, Jehu Chesson, Demarcus Robinson, and Demetrius Harris. As always, it leaves room for guys I mentioned to expand their role as well but considering I'm already pretty high on their targets that seems unlikely.

Here's what the projections look like with those numbers:



Player Name
Targets
Recs
Yardage
TDS
Travis Kelce
127
91
1164
6
Tyreek Hill
110
75
825
4
Chris Conley
90
57
684
3
Kareem Hunt
50
36
306
2
Albert Wilson
65
40
380
2

I feel like it's important to mention that Hill could see an additional 200 yards on the ground. In 24 rush attempts last year he gained 267 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he did anything similar to that this season I'd have him for over 1000 yards and at least 6 touchdowns.



Dynasty Slant

The days of getting Travis Kelce in the 6th round of dynasty startups are far behind us my friends. According to Dynasty League Football's August ADP he is going 31st overall. I love him still and think he is well on his way to establishing himself as THE tight end to own in dynasty (mostly due to Gronk injuries). That said, when you're passing on high upside young WRs to grab him it hurts. I'd be ok with waiting on tight end instead of paying to get him. Glad I still own him in at least one league though.

Tyreek Hill is currently the 41st played off the board. I get that he's exciting since he can make catches and rush for long touchdowns. However, I'm somewhat worried about what happens to him when Patrick Mahomes becomes the quarterback for the Chiefs. I do think they can match up nicely because of Hill's speed, but if they change the scheme to be less focused on Hill I worry about how he may struggle. There's no one he is going ahead of that makes me think "wow you have to take those guys over him", but just wanted to acknowledge he is a risky pick in my opinion at that price.

Zach's man Chris Conley is currently going 191st off the board. That is far too cheap. Unlike Hill, he has the prototypical size and athleticism to be a traditional WR1. I really like thinking about what Mahomes and Conley can do together. He's going after Tavon Austin, Wayne Gallman, and Matt Forte. Go forth and acquire some cheap shares!

I just traded Jay Ajayi in one league for Kareem Hunt, Kenny Golladay, and a 2018 1st. That tells you that I'm buying into the hype a bit. He was going 80th overall according to the most recent ADP, but I expect that to change with the news that Ware is out for the reason. Be careful about paying too much for him. He's in a great situation, but if he goes any higher you're absolutely buying at his ceiling.

Albert Wilson is the 265th player off the board and I'm somewhat surprised he made the list. There's not much reason to pay attention to him unless you're in a best ball league, and even then you could likely do better. I don't think being the Chiefs third receiver will be exciting at the very least until Mahomes becomes the starter.

So there you have it. Now we'll spend the rest of the season seeing if opposing defenses can "Catch Kelce". I have a feeling the answer is no.



Until next time,

Rek



*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:

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