I recently got in a debate about the value of Amari Cooper in one of my dynasty leagues. I know this has been a hot button issue this off-season. I'm on team Cooper, and believe he and Derek Carr can make sweet sweet music together.
It also caused me to examined my thoughts on Derek Carr. Initially, I thought he was a bit over-hyped. After digging a bit more into some of his stats, I realized I was wrong.
It's weird to think this team is moving to Las Vegas soon. I know he's originally from Oakland, but it'd be pretty fitting for someone nicknamed "Money" Lynch to end up in Las Vegas. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't bet on him making the trip to Vegas with the team though. Without further adieu, let's get into it.
2016 Raiders Passing Attempts
Last season the Raiders attempted 596 passes which were good enough to place them 9th overall int he league. That was actually down from the 605 they attempted in 2015, but the league as a whole seemed to pass slightly less in 2016. The majority were attempted by Derek Carr, though he did one miss game.
The Raiders were also 11th in rushing attempts last season despite having Latavius Murray at the helm. This goes to show that this is a young offense that is definitely on the up and up. When you have a team that ranks in the top ten in passing offense and top fifteen in rushing attempts that's one you want to target for fantasy purposes.
Here's what the passing breakdown looks like:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Michael Crabtree
|
145
|
89
|
1003
|
8
|
Amari Cooper
|
132
|
83
|
1153
|
5
|
Seth Roberts
|
77
|
38
|
397
|
5
|
Clive Walford
|
52
|
33
|
359
|
3
|
Latavius Murray
|
43
|
33
|
264
|
0
|
In the two seasons that Crabtree and Cooper have been on the team their targets have looked almost identical. In fact, in 2015 Crabtree saw 146 and Cooper saw 130. This is a passing offense that clearly runs through these two with a sprinkling of Seth Roberts for touchdowns.
2017 Predictions
Look at the table below:
| Year | Age | Tm | Pos | No. | G | GS | QBrec | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Lng | Y/A | AY/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate | QBR | Sk | Yds | NY/A | ANY/A | Sk% | 4QC | GWD | AV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 23 | OAK | QB | 4 | 16 | 16 | 3-13-0 | 348 | 599 | 58.1 | 3270 | 21 | 3.5 | 12 | 2.0 | 77 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 204.4 | 76.6 | 45.7 | 24 | 149 | 5.01 | 4.82 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 2015* | 24 | OAK | QB | 4 | 16 | 16 | 7-9-0 | 350 | 573 | 61.1 | 3987 | 32 | 5.6 | 13 | 2.3 | 68 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 249.2 | 91.1 | 46.3 | 31 | 230 | 6.22 | 6.31 | 5.1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 2016* | 25 | OAK | QB | 4 | 15 | 15 | 12-3-0 | 357 | 560 | 63.8 | 3937 | 28 | 5.0 | 6 | 1.1 | 75 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 262.5 | 96.7 | 62.1 | 16 | 79 | 6.70 | 7.20 | 2.8 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| Career | 47 | 47 | 22-25-0 | 1055 | 1732 | 60.9 | 11194 | 81 | 4.7 | 31 | 1.8 | 77 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 238.2 | 87.9 | 71 | 458 | 5.95 | 6.08 | 3.9 | 12 | 12 | 30 | |||||
Derek Carr has improved in almost every categorical stat possible in each year he's been in the league. He's clearly on his way to becoming one of the elites, and I was wrong to think otherwise. I know, it's shocking that I can actually admit when I'm wrong right?
Anyway, the one thing that has been trending down for the Raiders in Carr's tenure is pass attempts. It seems odd that as Carr makes his progression the team is throwing less. Add in the fact that Marshawn Lynch was clearly brought in an attempt to rush even more, and I'm predicting a slight decrease for the teams overall passing attempts to about 585.
Based on the stats I showed you earlier, you'd think I'd predict Michael Crabtree would see the most targets right? Before I crown the king of this offense, please look at the table below:
| Rk | Player | Draft | From | To | Tm | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odell Beckham | 1-12 | 2014 | 2015 | NYG | 2 |
| 2 | Amari Cooper | 1-4 | 2015 | 2016 | OAK | 2 |
| 3 | Mike Evans | 1-7 | 2014 | 2015 | TAM | 2 |
| 4 | A.J. Green | 1-4 | 2011 | 2012 | CIN | 2 |
| 5 | Keenan Allen | 3-76 | 2013 | 2013 | SDG | 1 |
| 6 | Kelvin Benjamin | 1-28 | 2014 | 2014 | CAR | 1 |
| 7 | Steve Breaston | 5-142 | 2008 | 2008 | ARI | 1 |
| 8 | Antonio Brown | 6-195 | 2011 | 2011 | PIT | 1 |
| 9 | John Brown | 3-91 | 2015 | 2015 | ARI | 1 |
| 10 | Brandin Cooks | 1-20 | 2015 | 2015 | NOR | 1 |
| 11 | Victor Cruz | 2011 | 2011 | NYG | 1 | |
| 12 | Michael Floyd | 1-13 | 2013 | 2013 | ARI | 1 |
| 13 | Josh Gordon | 2-1 | 2013 | 2013 | CLE | 1 |
| 14 | Jimmy Graham | 3-95 | 2011 | 2011 | NOR | 1 |
| 15 | Rob Gronkowski | 2-42 | 2011 | 2011 | NWE | 1 |
| 16 | T.Y. Hilton | 3-92 | 2013 | 2013 | IND | 1 |
| 17 | DeAndre Hopkins | 1-27 | 2014 | 2014 | HOU | 1 |
| 18 | Allen Hurns | 2015 | 2015 | JAX | 1 | |
| 19 | DeSean Jackson | 2-49 | 2009 | 2009 | PHI | 1 |
| 20 | Alshon Jeffery | 2-45 | 2013 | 2013 | CHI | 1 |
| Rk | Player | Draft | From | To | Tm | Count |
| 21 | Calvin Johnson | 1-2 | 2008 | 2008 | DET | 1 |
| 22 | Julio Jones | 1-6 | 2012 | 2012 | ATL | 1 |
| 23 | Hakeem Nicks | 1-29 | 2010 | 2010 | NYG | 1 |
| 24 | Allen Robinson | 2-61 | 2015 | 2015 | JAX | 1 |
| 25 | Mike Wallace | 3-84 | 2010 | 2010 | PIT | 1 |
| 26 | Sammy Watkins | 1-4 | 2015 | 2015 | BUF | 1 |
| 27 | Tyrell Williams | 2016 | 2016 | SDG | 1 |
You may see where I'm going with this. Maybe I'm still a believer in the year 3 breakout, but I believe this is the year that Cooper not only continues his pace from the first two seasons but adds to it. That doesn't mean I don't see Crabtree still getting a ton of targets, but I think this is the Cooper show now. I believe Cooper will see 140 targets, though they will primarily come outside the 20's. I'm just betting on him breaking some longer big plays for touchdowns.
The Raiders clearly love Michael Crabtree as well, especially in the Red Zone as evidenced by his 23.9% Red Zone Target share last year according to Playerprofiler.com. I do think it's highly unlikely, but the Raiders can move on from Crabtree after this season for no dead cap which is part of the reason I think they feed Cooper a little more. Still, I believe he still sees a very healthy 135 targets.
The next most targeted receiver the past few years has been Seth Roberts, who just recently signed an extension despite his 49.5 % catch rate last year. This is a catch rate that can't be blamed on a bad quarterback either. Still, he's utilized heavily in the Red Zone for the Raiders-with a 22.8% Red Zone Target Share according to Playerprofiler.com. I believe he will see about 76 targets.
Last season the Raiders targeted their running backs/fullbacks 123 times. Latavius Murrary was the most targeted with 43 targets, but I don't see that same role for Marshawn Lynch. He's been a good pass catcher in his career, but I believe after missing a year he's better off being a two down bruising back. That means whoever wins the role to be his change of pace should see a healthy amount of targets, and my money is on Deandre Washington. He will see 40 targets and the group will see about 90 targets.
I know some people believe it will be Jalen Richard who had more rushing yards, rec yards, and total touchdowns than Washington last year. However, all pre-season Washington has been operating as the no 2 behind Lynch even if Richard has been rotating in. This is definitely a situation to watch, and honestly I may only be giving the edge to Washington because his best comp according to playerprofiler.com is Devonta Freeman.
I know some people believe it will be Jalen Richard who had more rushing yards, rec yards, and total touchdowns than Washington last year. However, all pre-season Washington has been operating as the no 2 behind Lynch even if Richard has been rotating in. This is definitely a situation to watch, and honestly I may only be giving the edge to Washington because his best comp according to playerprofiler.com is Devonta Freeman.
Remember when the fantasy community got hyped about Jared Cook because he was playing with Aaron Rodgers? Needless to say that didn't end well for us. I do think Cook will be targeted about 55 times, but I'm not expecting all that much from him.
The remaining 89 targets will be split between Cordarrelle Patterson, Clive Walford, Johnny Holton, and Lee Smith. It's also possible someone I listed already sees more targets. If I had to guess on anyone, I'd say potentially Crabtree sees more targets or Lynch is more involved in the passing game than I give him credit for.
Here are my projections:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Amari Cooper
|
140
|
88
|
1232
|
7
|
Michael Crabtree
|
135
|
84
|
963
|
7
|
Seth Roberts
|
76
|
42
|
441
|
3
|
DeAndre Washington
|
40
|
29
|
232
|
1
|
Jared Cook
|
55
|
32
|
403
|
3
|
Dynasty Slant
You probably don't need me to tell you that Amari Cooper's ADP according to the most recent Dynasty League Football ADP data was very high-at number six overall. However, I've seen a bunch of trades and articles lately telling people to sell. Including some trades where people are getting back a couple firsts. I get it, first round picks are nice.
That said, given the bust rate of the firsts I'd take Cooper any day. You're hoping that any of those firsts become Cooper. Unless you're getting high end talent plus firsts back for him, I wouldn't bother selling him. I own him in two leagues and it would take a godfather "this is an offer you can't possibly refuse" kind of offer to get me to trade him.
Michael Crabtree is currently down at 52, which seems pretty reasonable for him. In the past two seasons, he's finished as the WR11 and WR19 with the Raiders. I'd look to acquire him at his current cost.
I'm not going to bother with Seth Roberts. He probably belongs on a roster because he can step into a big role on a good offense if one of Cooper or Crabtree were to go down, but I just can't get that excited about him. He's an end of roster guy at best.
DeAndre Washington is intriguing to me. I'm not the biggest Marshawn Lynch supporter this year. Given his age, the fact that he was out of football for a while, and not looking that great last time he did play no thank you. I fully admit he could be good this season, but I'm more than willing to let him be someone else's player.
I'd rather target the guy who could become the starter when he is gone or gets injured. To me, that's DeAndre Washington who has an ADP of 159. I'd look to acquire him for a third round pick if the owner will sell. Remember, the Raiders have an insanely good o-line, and that's the only reason I'd even expect Marshawn to find any margin of success this season to be honest. If you really want to hedge your bets, acquire Jalen Richard too.
Jared Cook is the 207th played off the board at the moment. He's not a bad bet there. However, considering Charles Clay was going in the same range (though I expect that changes), I wouldn't rush to acquire him either.
If this was Raiders of the Lost Ark, then Amari Cooper is the Holy Grail. Michael Crabtree is Aztec gold. The rest of the offense may be traps that leads to boulders chasing after you, but you may just find some additional treasure by triggering them.
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com , spotrac.com, and dynastyleaguefootball.com
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