These are the AFC predictions. View NFC here
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills - Former QB Logan Thomas is a top 12 TE
While many got excited about a pair of former basketball players converted to TE in Erik Swoope and Rico Gathers, I’ve got my eye on a different conversion to TE. That would be the former Va Tech and Cardinals QB Logan Thomas. Having been a football player throughout college he has an understanding of the game that may allow him to make a faster transition. We’ve seen plenty of QB to WR switches over the years, Julian Edelman and Cameron Meredith are two recent and successful examples. Thomas is very athletic for a TE and the Bills have room for another target.
Miami Dolphins - DeVante Parker puts up 1,200 yards and 10 TDs
I’ve been on the DVP hype train since day one. Productive in college, athletic and with prototypical WR1 size. He took a step forward last year and now with Jay Cutler he looks ready to take another big step. It would take a very big step to get to these numbers but it isn’t unheard of. One player that immediately came to mind was Roddy White who became a star player in year three and enjoyed five straight top ten seasons before giving way to Julio Jones. Devante Parker - the league’s next star WR.
New England Patriots - Rob Gronkowski sets the all-time record for receiving touchdowns
I love Gronk the player and there was basically only one prediction that could call for Gronk to impress and still qualify as bold. That would be for Gronk to beat his former teammate Randy Moss’ record of 23 rec TDs. Gronk already has the greatest season EVER for a TE and he did it at age 22 when he put up a line of 90-1327-17. Last year in five full games with Brady, Gronk had a 16 game pace of 77-1,693-10. The touchdowns were well short of where he needed to be (3 in 5 games) but back in his 2011 season, he actually had 6 scoreless games including four consecutive games! 23 touchdowns seems like such an unreachable number but if anyone can possibly reach it, it will be Gronk with the very same QB Moss had.
New York Jets - The Jets win at least one game this year
The Jets are widely viewed as one of the least talented rosters ever seen in the NFL. Many believe they have the worst QB, WR and TE units while being below average pretty much everywhere except defensive line - and even there giving up Sheldon Richardson hurt quite a bit. Can they really go 0-16? I say no. They face their division and #1 pick rival Bills twice and also face the Jaguars and Browns. The Jets will manage to win at least one of those games and avoid joining the Detroit Lions in the record books.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals - John Ross leads all rookie WRs in fantasy points
John Ross is currently expected to miss at least two games with a knee sprain and as a result of that and another injury that kept him out for most of the preseason he has become something of a forgotten man in redraft leagues. Corey Davis has been in a similar situation but is still the top rookie receiver being drafted. Behind him you’ll find Cooper Kupp, Zay Jones and Kenny Golladay all being drafted ahead of Ross. Really it is fair given the injury but I think those passing up on Ross will regret it. If he can get on the field only missing a couple games, I think Ross is in one of the best situations to make a year one impact. His elite combine record speed and draft pedigree are a great start. Then factor in an experienced QB, an elite WR to draw attention on the opposite side and very weak competition for WR2 (Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd?). The situation reminds me somewhat of Odell Beckham’s. I’m not calling for such an incredible rookie season but don’t be surprised if Ross exceeds all expectations as a rookie.
Cleveland Browns - Duke Johnson leads all RBs in receptions
It’s no secret that I am very high on the Browns offense. That said, Corey Coleman and Deshone Kizer are probably a year away from really hitting their stride. Isaiah Crowell already broke out. So I land on Duke as my bold prediction as the receiving back of this smash and dash combo. Through two seasons Duke has racked up 114 receptions, 4th most in the league during that time. Last year he had 53. That was well short of David Johnson’s 80, but I believe he will be targeted a lot more this season. Early in the preseason, coach Hue Jackson was talking about lining Duke up in the slot. With that in mind, 75+ receptions could go Duke’s way.
Baltimore Ravens - Jeremy Maclin is not a top 50 WR
On paper, this signing made a ton of sense. The Ravens desperately needed a reliable receiver to throw to opposite Mike Wallace. But after a season where Maclin struggled to stay healthy or productive - Just 5 of 13 games with 50+ rec yards and just 4 with 5 or more catches - I’m worried the 29 year old might not be able to bounce back fully. With Mike Wallace already having the trust of Flacco and Danny Woodhead certainly being heavily involved and Perriman seeing quite a few targets, I don’t think this offense can support a second quality WR.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Le’Veon Bell sets the record for yards from scrimmage
The record is currently held by Chris Johnson with 2509 YFS in 2009. That was 156.8 YFS per game. Just last year with 1884 YFS in 12 games, Bell actually averaged more yards per game than the record (157 even). In his lone 16 game season to date, Bell had 2215 yards becoming just the 20th player to ever record a 2200 yard season. If Bell stays healthy, Tomlin will continue to use him for an insane number of touches per game. He finished 4th in total touches last year despite missing 4 games, he was just 37 touches shy of the leader. He is set to be just the second player since Chris Johnson in 2009 to break 400 touches and with it he will challenge for the record.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans - No player has more than 1000 YFS
With DeAndre Hopkins being drafted as the WR13 and Lamar Miller the RB17 people owning these two players certainly expect them to exceed 1000 yards and perhaps by a great deal. Last year Hopkins had 954 YFS while Miller had 1261. Here’s the thing though, I have little to no confidence in the Texans QB situation once again AND Miller has a much stronger threat for touches this year. I predict that Hopkins falls just short and that Miller ends up losing his job to Foreman late in the season, thus also falling short.
Indianapolis Colts - Jack Doyle leads all Tight Ends in receptions
Jack ‘The Answer’ Doyle proved to be an extremely reliable receiver last year, putting up a line of 59-584-5 while catching a league leading (for TEs) 78.7% of his targets. Dwayne Allen and Erik Swoope combined for 74 targets and both are now out of the picture. Unlike in the past where the Colts preferred to utilize two TEs in the pass game, I expect this season’s team to heavily feature Doyle. If he sees 110 targets (Colts targeted there TEs 149 times in total last year) and maintains his pristine catch rate we are looking at 80+ receptions. Last year Dennis Pitta led the league with 86. Doyle can match that and be a PPR hero.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Blake Bortles finishes as a top 15 QB
Bortles has been left for dead. He is basically untouchable in fantasy for understandable reasons. But this is still a guy that finished as a top ten QB last year despite being very bad and top five the year before. Even losing some volume, there is a scenario where Bortles is both bad AND usable in fantasy. I honestly think having a competent run game (hopefully) will do a lot more good than bad for Bortles. Realistically, despite threatening to this preseason, will the team really start Chad Henne? I think not. The young developmental QB that actually had a chance to get some starts, Brandon Allen, was waived and claimed by the Rams so he is no longer an option. The Jaguars have a really talented group of receivers as well, especially with the addition of ‘King Dedede’ Westbrook. So whether good or bad irl, I predict Bortles starts all 16 games and is usable in fantasy.
Tennessee Titans - Rishard Matthews scores the most fantasy points among Titans WRs
With an ADP of WR48, Rishard is the forgotten man in Tennessee going behind Eric Decker (WR35) and Corey Davis (WR45). Only Rishard has real game experience with Marcus Mariota though, and it is he that led the Titans in targets, rec yards and rec TDs last year. Decker and Davis are great additions, don’t get me wrong. They will aid Mariota in having a great season but Rishard is the one that will score the most fantasy points!
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos - Jamaal Charles leads the team in yards from scrimmage
For this to come to pass, not only would Charles (ADP of RB45) have to outdo CJA (RB21) but he would also have to put up more yards than Demaryius and Sanders which is no small task. You have to go back to 2013 to find the last year an RB led the team in YFS (Knowshon Moreno). So why would an old oft-injured RB pull it off? Well for starters he is actually in a pretty similar situation to where Knowshon was back then. Knowshon was the older guy coming off two injury marred seasons and Montee Ball was the RB drafted well ahead. Interesting parallel there. Jamaal Charles is a future HOF RB that if healthy is FAR better than CJA who is merely decent at best. Staying healthy is something of a longshot for JC but for a guy that has never had a full season below 4.9 YPC and is an excellent receiving back he definitely has the dual threat ability to do it all. I thought Charles looked really good when he finally got on the field this preseason for a few snaps. He went from being a potential cut to easily securing a roster spot. With Trevor Siemian at the helm, you want to run as much as possible. I think only Charles has the talent on this roster to allow them to do that.
Kansas City Chiefs - Tyreek Hill has 1000 rec yards and 400 rush yards
The great RB Marshall Faulk once had a 1000 yard rushing and receiving season. Matt Forte nearly matched the feat. So to have an RB hit these numbers is not unheard of. But they do it almost exclusively lining up out of the backfield. Receivers like Tyreek Hill have really only started popping up in the past decade and even then only rarely (Percy Harvin, Tavon Austin) albeit with inconsistent success. I think it is a trend that is going to become more popular in the NFL and it starts with Tyreek and a HC willing to use him that way in Andy Reid. As far as I can tell thanks to a handy Pro-Football-Reference query, the most rush yards by a 1000 rec yard *WR* is Joey Galloway’s 154 in 1995 and that was mostly thanks to a single 86 yard rush. Percy Harvin came the closest to these numbers with 967 rec yards and 345 rush yards. Tyreek had 593 rec yards and 267 rush yards as a rookie. However he accrued almost all of those yards from game 7 onward and in those 10 games he was on pace for 750 rec yards and 400 rush yards, much closer to the predicted total. With the departure of Jeremy Maclin, Hill is expected to play WR more often and see a lot more targets. Will he still get enough rush attempts to make this reality? I’m hoping so because his blazing speed makes him a special player.
Oakland Raiders - Marshawn Lynch does not have the most fantasy points of a Raiders RB
I’d hate for this to be true but we’ve got to consider the facts. Marshawn is one of the oldest RBs in the game and when he retired he was coming off of an injury-riddled disappointing season. At 31 years old and a year away from the game, are expectations of a top ten or even top twenty season unfair? The Raiders have a great offensive line and offense overall. It is Marshawn’s hometown team and he wants to help them to a championship before they move. However, Beast Mode has two young RBs behind him that played very well (both over 5.0 YPC) in limited fashion last year. I’m sure the current game plan is to run Marshawn 20 times a game but if he proves to be ineffective for any stretch longer than a single game, don’t think they will hesitate in using the younger guys.
Los Angeles Chargers - Travis Benjamin leads the team in rec yards
Alright just hear me out before you scoff on this one. Keenan Allen can’t stay healthy, Mike Williams *isn’t* healthy. If Keenan were to get hurt again (and I hope that doesn’t happen) it would leave Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman as the top guys. Tyrell would definitely be the favorite to lead the team after doing it last year. Benjamin actually had an excellent start to the season too. Through 5 games he had more catches and yards than Tyrell. Then he struggled against Denver twice and Tyrell had his breakout game against Atlanta in between. Travis then got hurt and missed a game and fell out of favor. I still have the hot start in mind as well as his very impressive 2015 season in cleveland. All things considered, his final line of 47-677-4 was decent. This is probably one of the less likely predictions to happen but if things break the right way this year, who knows!
.
.
.
.
.
Okay fine, a SERIOUS Jets Bold Prediction - Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the team's leading receiver and is a Top 12 TE
With ASJ talent was never the issue. It has been his maturity that has kept him from achieving what he is capable of. In 2015 he led ALL tight ends in points per snap (Via PFF) and was second only to Gronk in yards per catch with 16.1. Last year he started the season off with a bang on a 30 yard touchdown. Unfortunately his decision-making off the field led to a DUI. After already being on thin ice following public work ethic concerns in the preseason, he was promptly cut. He then signed with the Jets - a situation that has been a dead zone for tight ends. Strangely enough, while it didn’t result in production on the field last year, the move to the Jets seems to have been a positive one. ASJ is suspsended for two games thanks to his DUI but seems to finally be getting it. He has opened up about getting treatment for problems with alcohol. He is saying and doing all the right things. This quote from an ESPN article - "I'm going to be there early, I'm going to stay late," he said after the final preseason game. "I won't be able to practice, but I'll be with the guys. I'm going to treat it like a game week, so come Week 3, I'll be ready for Miami." - really sounds like a guy turning the corner. In limited appearances this preseason he showed promise, scoring a touchdown. Maybe the personality change is just fool’s gold, but the fact that I have always been confident in his talent makes me want to believe. When ASJ returns from suspension, look for him to make an impact for this team.
No comments:
Post a Comment