It's no secret that the Falcons offense was a recipe for both real football and fantasy football success last season. It was Matt Ryan's best season of his career, and he was finally as cool as his nickname. There is some cause for concern though.
It's well known by now that Kyle Shanahan is a huge plus for any offense he is a part of. Unfortunately for the Falcons, he took on the head coaching job for the 49ers this off-season. Let's take a look if that is as a big of a negative as people may think.
2016 Passing Attempts
What I'm about to write may come as a shock to some of you but the Falcons only attempted 537 passes last season. That was only good for 26th last season. That's right, they were only better than 6 other teams in passing volume! Meanwhile, they were third in passing touchdowns. Talk about being hyper efficient.
As might be expected of a team featuring Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, the Falcons were 12th in rushing attempts last season. I know people always talk about thunder and lightning backfields, but this must be the poster child. It's insane that Tevin Coleman would likely be the lead back on almost any other team.
As might be expected of a team featuring Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, the Falcons were 12th in rushing attempts last season. I know people always talk about thunder and lightning backfields, but this must be the poster child. It's insane that Tevin Coleman would likely be the lead back on almost any other team.
Anyway, let's take a look at who those passes went to:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Julio Jones
|
129
|
83
|
1409
|
6
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
81
|
59
|
653
|
4
|
Devonta Freeman
|
65
|
54
|
462
|
2
|
Taylor Gabriel
|
50
|
35
|
579
|
6
|
Tevin Coleman
|
40
|
31
|
421
|
3
|
Jacob Tamme
|
31
|
22
|
210
|
3
|
Justin Hardy
|
31
|
21
|
203
|
4
|
Austin Hooper
|
27
|
19
|
271
|
3
|
Holy moly Batman! I included more than I usually do just to show how crazy productive this offense was. Fun fact for you-Julio's 129 targets was down from 203 in 2015. Since Dan Quinn took over he's the only receiver for the Falcons to break 100 targets in a season.
2017 Predictions
It's hard to say what Steve Sarkisian's impact on the offense will be. He is known as a QB coach which should be good for the continued success of Matt Ryan, but without coaching in the NFL to back my claims on I'm not confident in anything I say.
Going off his college stats, in his last two full seasons of coaching ('13-'14) he was fairly balanced leaning towards the run. In 2013 the Huskies attempted 413 passes while rushing the ball 597 times under Sakisian. In 2014, USC attempted 460 passes while rushing the ball 514 times.It may be because he had Cody Kessler as his QB at USC, but this certainly bodes well for continued success from Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
Going off his college stats, in his last two full seasons of coaching ('13-'14) he was fairly balanced leaning towards the run. In 2013 the Huskies attempted 413 passes while rushing the ball 597 times under Sakisian. In 2014, USC attempted 460 passes while rushing the ball 514 times.It may be because he had Cody Kessler as his QB at USC, but this certainly bodes well for continued success from Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
I'm going to take a totally wild guess and say the Falcons attempt more passes this year. I mean, the 537 last season was way down from the 619 they attempted the year before. We'll peg them for somewhere in the middle, and say about 565 pass attempts.
The 24% market share Julio Jones had of targets last season was a three year low for him. I don't expect a huge increase, but there's no reason to believe he isn't the guy on this offense. In fact, the decrease last year is likely attributed to missing two games. I'm going to assign him 27% of the team's targets, which means he will see 153 targets.
For the next most targeted Falcon receiver-I'm going to lead you all to a stat my friend Zach led me to when I refused to trade Paul Perkins for Taylor Gabriel.
That's right. When Ryan targeted Gabriel, good things happened last season. The fact that Gabriel had 579 yards and 6 touchdowns on only 50 targets is insane. Additionally, take a look at these stats from games 8-15, a full half a season:Throws to @AtlantaFalcons WR Taylor Gabriel netted a higher passer rating than any other wide receiver in the league in 2016 pic.twitter.com/68xboXrjL2— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) June 5, 2017
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Taylor Gabriel
|
40
|
27
|
472
|
6
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
37
|
32
|
363
|
1
|
It's clear that Gabriel started to find his success at the expense of Sanu. As such, I expect that Gabriel will be the more targeted receiver this season. I believe Gabriel will see 100 targets.
Sanu provided a decent weapon for the Falcons last season, but I definitely believe he is playing third fiddle this year. That doesn't mean he won't still see a decent amount of volume. In reality, I actually expect a slight uptick in targets just because of the increase in the passing volume. He will see 85 targets.
In case you weren't paying attention before, you might have missed just how productive the running backs were in the receiving game. On 105 targets they combined for 85 receptions, 883 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Those are numbers you'd expect from a WR2, not two running backs. I believe Freeman remains the more target back, but both of them will see heavy work in the passing game. Freeman will see 70 targets, and Coleman will see 45 targets.
Jacob Tamme may be gone, but he has a very worthy replacement in Austin Hooper. The former third round pick had a very solid season for a rookie tight end, especially if you remember from a few of my other articles that rookie tight ends almost never produce. I'd expect to see his workload increased to 50 targets with the absence of Tamme.
That leaves 62 targets unaccounted for. Justin Hardy should see the bulk of what's left but other guys like Levine Toilolo and Andre Roberts may get in on the action too. As always, it leaves room for some of the guys I already mentioned to see even more targets.
Here's what the offense looks like on the targets I projected:
Just like your memories of Natty Ice, I think Matt Ryan will continue to age well. The loss of Shanahan may hurt more than I've given him credit for, but this is an offense that is built to last. Grab one of the six from the pack I mentioned and you'll be golden.
Sanu provided a decent weapon for the Falcons last season, but I definitely believe he is playing third fiddle this year. That doesn't mean he won't still see a decent amount of volume. In reality, I actually expect a slight uptick in targets just because of the increase in the passing volume. He will see 85 targets.
In case you weren't paying attention before, you might have missed just how productive the running backs were in the receiving game. On 105 targets they combined for 85 receptions, 883 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Those are numbers you'd expect from a WR2, not two running backs. I believe Freeman remains the more target back, but both of them will see heavy work in the passing game. Freeman will see 70 targets, and Coleman will see 45 targets.
Jacob Tamme may be gone, but he has a very worthy replacement in Austin Hooper. The former third round pick had a very solid season for a rookie tight end, especially if you remember from a few of my other articles that rookie tight ends almost never produce. I'd expect to see his workload increased to 50 targets with the absence of Tamme.
That leaves 62 targets unaccounted for. Justin Hardy should see the bulk of what's left but other guys like Levine Toilolo and Andre Roberts may get in on the action too. As always, it leaves room for some of the guys I already mentioned to see even more targets.
Here's what the offense looks like on the targets I projected:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Julio Jones
|
153
|
98
|
1568
|
8
|
Taylor Gabriel
|
100
|
65
|
1040
|
6
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
85
|
60
|
660
|
5
|
Devonta Freeman
|
70
|
56
|
448
|
3
|
Tevin Coleman
|
50
|
38
|
380
|
3
|
Austin Hooper
|
50
|
33
|
462
|
5
|
This makes me feel like I'm way too high on Gabriel but I'm rolling with it. As you can see, I have 30 touchdowns just between these six guys. So I'm not expecting a huge drop off from Shanahan if any. Sure there will be a little regression, but I see no reason to think it has to be any more than that.
Dynasty Slant
Probably won't shock any of you to learn that according to Dynasty League Football August ADP, Julio Jones is currently going 8th overall. The one thing worth noting is he is going after Antonio Brown. Given the Big Ben retirement rumors, think I'd actually lean Julio there.
Taylor Gabriel is currently the 178th player off the board, and while I realize I'm way too high on him that seems entirely too low. He was going after the likes of Ardarius Stewart and Chad Williams while already having a key role on an explosive offense. Looking back at the table of Gabriel vs Sanu, during that span, Gabriel was WR8 in .5 PPR PPG! Sanu was WR54. To be a top ten receiver for a half season and be as cheap as Gabriel is a very hard feat. Makes no sense at all.
Mohamed Sanu is the 187th player to be drafted, so it seems like the community agrees that Gabriel is the better player. That said, there is no reason that Sanu should be going after the likes of Wayne Gallman or TJ Yeldon.
Devonta Freeman is listed 18th, so if you want him you're going to have to pay up. I recently traded Derrick Henry and Mike Williams for Freeman to give you some indication. In the range he's going it's hard to argue against any of the players ahead of him, but I certainly like him quite a bit as a RB1.
Tevin Coleman is going 61st, and everyone this off-season has been screaming regression is coming for him. It may happen, and I don't agree with him being ahead of Kelvin Benjamin. However, going after the likes of Josh Doctson and Carlos Hyde seems a bit suspect to me.
Interestingly, Austin Hooper is listed at 124 ahead of Gabriel and Sanu. It's not all the time young exciting tight ends come into the league and he's certainly cheaper than Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, O.J Howard, or David Njoku. 124th overall seems like a good spot for Hooper, and I'd recommend buying before he has a strong season.
Just like your memories of Natty Ice, I think Matt Ryan will continue to age well. The loss of Shanahan may hurt more than I've given him credit for, but this is an offense that is built to last. Grab one of the six from the pack I mentioned and you'll be golden.
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com , spotrac.com, and dynastyleaguefootball.com
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