These are the NFC predictions. View the AFC predictions here
NFC EAST:
Dallas Cowboys - Dez Bryant finishes as WR1 on the season.
Over Dez Bryant’s final 8 games played last year (minus Week 17, plus playoff game vs Packers) He had a line of 43-646-8. Since Dez Bryant’s arrival to the league in 2010 he has scored more receiving touchdowns (69, nice) than any other WR and only behind Gronk overall. Jordy Nelson at 63 is the only WR even within ten touchdowns, and he has played 4 more games while having a far better QB! Sorry Romo, but also let’s not forget the Cowboys had 24 starts from other far worse QBs up until Dak. Anyway, the point is that Dez is a beast, he’s come pretty close to a number one finish in the past and he and Dak combined for some impressive numbers last year when Dez was healthy.
New York Giants - Evan Engram will set rookie records for a Tight End
Rookie tight ends don’t produce. It is known. Except for sometimes they do produce! For example, the Giants own Jeremy Shockey was a top five tight end as a rookie. He also happens to claim the record for most rec yards by a rookie with 894 (in the post-merger era because Mike Ditka’s 56-1076-12 season just ain’t gonna be beat). Keith Jackson had the most recs at 81 and only recently Gronk set the record for touchdowns with 10. This graphic from @PFF shows that Engram was well above his peers as a receiver this preseason. The Giants were also lining him up in the slot some. You just don’t see players of his size (6’3” 234 lbs) and speed (4.42) very often if ever. He’s been more of a huge receiver than a true tight end in his college career. That is why I believe Engram could set some rookie records and really wow us.
Philadelphia Eagles - Carson Wentz finishes outside the top 24 in PPG
Less bold than the first two, but at a redraft ADP of QB18 (via ffcalc) and a Fantasy Pros ECR of QB19, this would be a very disappointing finish. His 62.4% completion percentage was respectable for a rookie. However his 6.2 Y/A was 29th of 30 qualifying quarterbacks, ahead of only Brock Osweiler and just a tick behind Blake Bortles. Not good company. And given that he had the 5th most pass attempts, his 16 touchdowns was awful. At 2.6% his touchdown rate ranked dead last. That doesn’t mean he is horrible - Tannehill had a worse number as a rookie and so did Blake Bortles and he threw 35 the very next year. It’s just not great either. And while the team did add Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith and will hopefully have standout offensive lineman Lane Johnson for the entire season, I do think getting rid of Jordan Matthews was a mistake.
Washington Redskins - Terrelle Pryor finishes outside the top 24 WRs
This one will surely draw the ire of many a fantasy player. Expectations for Pryor are through the roof. According to FFCalc he has an ADP of WR15. In my mind, that is basically paying for his ceiling. As Bobby wrote in a soon to come Washington Redskins BDTT - Pryor was volume dependant for the Browns last year and it is very unlikely he sees as many targets for the Redskins. So while he likely will see some increase in efficiency I can’t imagine it being enough to exceed his numbers last year much at all. Also, isn’t it strange that he could only muster a one year six million dollar deal? I mean Markus Wheaton signed a 2 year $11 million deal with 6 mil guaranteed! The Redskins are not paying Pryor like an elite WR and I don’t expect the numbers to reflect that either.
NFC NORTH:
Chicago Bears - Kendall Wright puts up 90 receptions and 1000 yards
Wouldn’t that be a shock? It’s easy to forget Wright was a big time prospect that was drafted in the 1st round...and he’s actually put these numbers up in the past! In his sophomore season with the Titans - and with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jake Locker at QB - Wright had a 94-1079-2 season. It was not very impressive as far as 90 catch seasons go but Wright has talent. He is also pretty good at catching the ball - he has never gone below 60% in a season. Last year he had an impressive 29-416-3 considering it was on just 42 targets. Given a fresh start and the unfortunate injury to Cameron Meredith there are plenty of targets to be had even if Kevin White ends up being healthy and good! Wright won the starting job opposite White with solid play this preseason. Here’s a fun fact via PFF - last year Kendall Wright was tied with Cameron Meredith in points per opportunity (points per route run). It’s just a matter of getting him on the field more and running more routes, which will happen in Chicago.
Detroit Lions - Ameer Abdullah finishes as a top 12 RB
I’ve seen a lot of hype on Abdullah throughout the offseason and preseason. So I was mildly surprised to see he is only the RB23 in ADP. One thing I’d like to set straight - I don’t think Abdullah is injury prone at all. Throughout his college career and his rookie NFL season, Abdullah never missed a game. Last year it was a singular foot injury that knocked him out. Before the injury, man did he look good! In about six quarters of play he put up 158 yards and a touchdown. That was good for a 5.6 yards per carry and five receptions even with Theo Riddick playing. This preseason he once again looked solid with 18 carries for 78 yards and 5 receptions of 5 targets, once again demonstrating catch ability.
Green Bay Packers - Ty Montgomery finishes as a top 10 RB in PPR
Ty Montgomery was an exciting player last year with a 5.9 YPC and 44 receptions on top of that during the regular season. However he never hit the 20 touch mark and that kept him from truly reaching RB1 status. That will be the key for this prediction. It is worth noting in the three games that he had 15+ touches his YFS were 126, 163 and 81. That is pretty damn good and in two of those games he had two touchdowns! I absolutely believe his ceiling as an RB is that of a stud. Especially when you know this guy has the background of a receiver and will surely have a healthy number of receptions. By playing him very sparingly this preseason and playing all three drafted rookies extensively, I believe the Packers made a statement that Montgomery is secure in the main RB role.
Minnesota Vikings - Adam Thielen & Stefon Diggs both finish as top 24 WRs.
I recently wrote about the Vikings and I am very optimistic for this offense. Diggs has an ADP of WR27 and Thielen is WR46. If either one of them were to finish top 24 it would definitely be a surprise. For both though, that definitely goes down as bold in my book and also means Bradford would have to be good enough to support them both. It definitely helps that they face the Packers, Lions and Bears twice each. All three divisional opponents were in the top ten for most points allowed to opposing WRs (Meanwhile the Vikings were 3rd fewest). Both Receivers played well enough in the second half that this really is quite doable.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons - Taylor Gabriel puts up at least 900 yards and 6 TDs
First - you must accept the fact that Taylor Gabriel is good. As an undrafted rookie he put up an excellent season of 36-621-1. In the past decade only two other UDFA’s put up bigger numbers. They were Doug Baldwin and Allen Hurns. Not bad company! (Note Willie Snead had 984 yards in his first season with game action but was actually a practice squad only player as a rookie). Then he fell out of favor with the Browns and was part of final cuts at the end of 2016 preseason. That was just fine for Kyle Shanahan who happened to be Gabriel’s OC in his 2014 rookie season. He scooped him up and after taking some time to acclimate to the new team, Gabriel really impressed in the second half of the season. See Bobby’s recent Falcons BDTT for more on that. Shanahan is gone and that is a bit worrisome but Matt Ryan should remember the guy that was so reliable for him last year. If he can keep up his pace from game 8 onward, making these numbers will be a breeze.
New Orleans Saints - Adrian Peterson finishes outside the top 50 RBs
Gotta have some negative predictions right? Peterson currently has an ADP of RB26. There is at least one person in every single league that believes they are getting a steal at that price and that AP will regain his glory of old, revitalized by the Saints offense. I’m here to say it’s not happening. Peterson is old with tons of mileage and between you and me, just not that good anymore. Even back in 2015 when he had a monster season, he showed signs of slowing down. Over the final 7 games he maintained an impressive TD rate but his YPC dipped below 4.0. Then in the playoffs that year he was held to just 45 yards on 23 carries. Then in 3 games last year he was just awful with a YPC below 2.0. Sure, being on a better offense with a hall of fame QB can fix some of that. But not all of it. In fact I think he won’t even be close to Mark Ingram this year. For week one both Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson are listed as co-starters. It may even stay that way for a few games. But I fully expect Ingram to pull ahead over the course of the season while Peterson wraps up his illustrious career.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston throws for at least 35 touchdowns
This one is on the less crazy side of things for sure given that he threw 28 last year and has some new toys. On the other hand how many times has a 23 year old QB thrown 30 or more TDs? Just four times, most recently Blake Bortles in 2015. Winston already has an elite touchdown threat in Mike Evans and Cameron Brate proved to be pretty good in that regard as well. Adding Desean Jackson as a deep threat as well as Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard means there is no reason to expect Jameis to not improve.
Carolina Panthers - Christian McCaffrey finishes with at least 1,400 yards from scrimmage
Basically this one comes down to whether CMC can be a workhorse back as a rookie even with Jonathan Stewart around. I think so. Here’s what it would take: 220 carries at 4.5 = 990 rush yards + 50 receptions at 8.5 yards per catch = 425 yards. That doesn’t seem THAT unlikely. Carolina RBs ran the ball 346 times last year. I expect that to increase some with the drafting of McCaffrey so I think that still leaves room for 100-120 carries for Jstew which seems realistic to me.
NFC WEST
Los Angeles Rams - No, Sean McVay won’t save Jared Goff
This one pains me to say because I hate seeing a struggling franchise waste a top pick, I really do. The team has heavily invested in giving Goff everything he needs to succeed. As a result he will definitely improve, but will it be enough. He could improve marginally and still be terrible. Despite key additions including Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Andrew Whitworth on the o-line, I say Jared Goff is still a terrible QB. By this time next year we will be talking about a different starting QB for the Rams.
Arizona Cardinals - Carson Palmer is benched for performance before the end of the season
Palmer has had a nice career and after a fantastic 2015 Carson Palmer was just okay last year as the QB19. He did finish strong as the Cardinals scored 30+ in four of their final five games. However father time comes for us all and we saw Peyton Manning go from top five to bottom five in just one year. For Palmer to go from QB19 to off the board completely is not a stretch at all. He is 37 years old and turns 38 at the end of december. Its impressive he has lasted this long really, but I think we near the end.
San Francisco 49ers - FB Kyle Juszczyk records 60+ receptions
Somebody has to catch passes in San Francisco! After Pierre Garcon the receivers on the depth chart in order are Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor and Aldrick Robinson. At TE it is rookie George Kittle. At RB Carlos Hyde has topped out at 27 recs and undrafted rookie Matt Breida is behind him. So Kyle ‘Juice’ Juszczyk is the second most experienced pass catcher believe it or not. The past two seasons Juice has logged 41 and 37 receptions. This preseason he barely played but managed to log two receptions for 37 yards. I guarantee he exceeds his career high in catches and 60+ is very much in the realm of possibility.
Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson finishes as QB1
Yeah you heard me. Russell Wilson has four top ten finishes and two top five finishes in five seasons but is coming off a career worst finish of QB11. He didn’t run much thanks to a bum ankle and a bad offensive line. However he also threw far more than his previous career high and set his new best in passing yards by over 200. Here’s why I think Russ can pull this off though. In his first four seasons he threw a touchdown on 6.1% of his passes. Last year that fell to 3.8%. 6% isn’t really sustainable outside of the generational QBs (Rodgers and Brady are both at 6%+ in the past decade) but 5% is certainly doable as 10 QBs in the past decade with a minimum of 1000 pass attempts have a 5% or better TD rate. Despite the signing of Lacy I DON’T think the Seahawks reverse course and throw less this year. They have thrown more in each year of Wilson’s seasons at the helm. For now with a healthy Lockett, Paul Richardson and C.J. Prosise this team has far better receiving weapons than ever before. I’m calling for 4500 yards, 35 TDs and some of Russ’s run game to return as well 400+ yards and a couple scores there as well. That would be enough to put him in contention for top QB in the league!
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