People usually save the best for the last. In this case, I've been saving the teams I dislike for my last few of this series. I wanted to get to as many as I could in the off-season and figured if I couldn't complete them all I'd be ok with not covering the teams I'm not a fan of.
The Redskins are very low on my teams that I dislike list, to be honest. While they are in the same division as the Giants, my biggest dislike of them is their name. They don't particularly have players or coaches who bother me unlike some of the other teams I may cover later.
So to answer your question Kirk Cousins, no I don't like that. I just don't like that a little less than I dislike other "thats". Let's get started.
2016 Redskins' Passing Attempts
Last season the Redskins were one of only seven teams to attempt 600 passes with a total of 607 attempted. That ranked them 7th overall in the league. That was a very significant increase from the 555 they attempted the year prior and likely has to do with having less confidence in their run game.
They went from 429 rushing attempts in 2015 to only 379 last season. To be fair, they moved on from Alfred Morris and were relying on an unproven combination of Robert Kelley, Matt Jones, and Chris Thompson. The increase in passing attempts can also be attributed to the continued progression of Kirk Cousins.
Here's what the breakdown looks like:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Pierre Garcon
|
114
|
79
|
1041
|
3
|
DeSean Jackson
|
100
|
56
|
1005
|
4
|
Jamison Crowder
|
99
|
67
|
847
|
7
|
Jordan Reed
|
89
|
66
|
686
|
6
|
Chris Thompson
|
62
|
49
|
349
|
2
|
Vernon Davis
|
59
|
44
|
583
|
2
|
As many of you know Pierre Garcon is now with the 49ers. DeSean Jackson is now with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The big addition for Washington this offseason was Terrelle Pryor. Now we'll take a gander at what that means for the team going forward.
2017 Predictions
Considering just how effective Kirk Cousins was last season, I see no reason that Washington won't attempt at least 600 passes again. Sure Rob Kelley has another year of experience now and they have fantasy twitter darling Samaje Perine in the fold, but this is a team that is clearly built to air the ball out now. We'll peg the team for 600 passes on the dot.
You know what time it is if you been following the series so far. Everyone's favorite game show: Name the most targeted receiver! Before we play, let me share some fun stats with you. In three seasons of Jay Gruden coaching his team has never targeted a single receiver more than 114 times. For those of you who like the market share stat, that means the most targeted receiver's largest percentage was 20%.
Why is this important? Because while I do expect Terrelle Pryor to be the most targeted receiver, I don't expect him to see nearly the volume he saw last season. Last season, Pryor saw 140 targets which he turned into 1007 yards and 4 touchdowns. Granted, he was catching his passes from the poop emojis that represented Cleveland's quarterbacks last season. It makes sense that people are excited to see what he can do with Kirk Cousins.
However, even if you adjust catch rate for quality passes that would mean he should catch roughly 60% of his passes unless he sees a bigger boost than normal. I'm going to assign him 120 targets. You'll have to wait until the projections to see exactly what that means.
Someone I'm much higher on than Pryor is Jamison Crowder. Below is a list of players in the past decade who were in their first two seasons with 60+ recs, 65%+ catch% and at least 7 touchdowns.
| Game | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Year | Age | Draft | Tm | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G | Ctch% | Y/Tgt |
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski | 2011 | 22 | 2-42 | NWE | 16 | 124 | 90 | 1327 | 14.74 | 17 | 82.9 | 72.6% | 10.70 |
| 2 | Jimmy Graham | 2011 | 25 | 3-95 | NOR | 16 | 149 | 99 | 1310 | 13.23 | 11 | 81.9 | 66.4% | 8.79 |
| 3 | Odell Beckham | 2014 | 22 | 1-12 | NYG | 12 | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 14.34 | 12 | 108.8 | 70.0% | 10.04 |
| 4 | Marques Colston | 2007 | 24 | 7-252 | NOR | 16 | 143 | 98 | 1202 | 12.27 | 11 | 75.1 | 68.5% | 8.41 |
| 5 | Brandin Cooks | 2015 | 22 | 1-20 | NOR | 16 | 129 | 84 | 1138 | 13.55 | 9 | 71.1 | 65.1% | 8.82 |
| 6 | Michael Thomas | 2016 | 23 | 2-47 | NOR | 15 | 121 | 92 | 1137 | 12.36 | 9 | 75.8 | 76.0% | 9.40 |
| 7 | Keenan Allen | 2013 | 21 | 3-76 | SDG | 15 | 105 | 71 | 1046 | 14.73 | 8 | 69.7 | 67.6% | 9.96 |
| 8 | Jordan Matthews | 2015 | 23 | 2-42 | PHI | 16 | 126 | 85 | 997 | 11.73 | 8 | 62.3 | 67.5% | 7.91 |
| 9 | Randall Cobb | 2012 | 22 | 2-64 | GNB | 15 | 104 | 80 | 954 | 11.93 | 8 | 63.6 | 76.9% | 9.17 |
| 10 | Aaron Hernandez | 2011 | 22 | 4-113 | NWE | 14 | 113 | 79 | 910 | 11.52 | 7 | 65.0 | 69.9% | 8.05 |
| 11 | Jordan Matthews | 2014 | 22 | 2-42 | PHI | 16 | 103 | 67 | 872 | 13.01 | 8 | 54.5 | 65.0% | 8.47 |
| 12 | Jamison Crowder | 2016 | 23 | 4-105 | WAS | 16 | 99 | 67 | 847 | 12.64 | 7 | 52.9 | 67.7% | 8.56 |
| 13 | Austin Collie | 2009 | 24 | 4-127 | IND | 16 | 89 | 60 | 676 | 11.27 | 7 | 42.3 | 67.4% | 7.60 |
There have been just 13 such seasons with Jordan Matthews performing the feat twice. This is a great list. Austin Collie basically being the one disappointment of the crew but he would actually go on to have a huge 2010 and then have his career derailed by Curtis Painter and concussions. The most comparable players on this list are fellow slot receivers Marques Colston and Jordan Matthews. Crowder almost saw 100 targets last season, and I'm predicting an increase from 99 to 110 targets this season.
Something that may be lost in all this is the team targeted the tight end position an insane 152 times last season. I know it's a fool's errand to try to predict Jordan Reed for a healthy season, but even when he hasn't played 16 games the past two seasons he's been targeted 89 times and 114 times. Even if he remains out it's clear that the team still trusts Vernon Davis to get the job done in his absence. I'm also going to assign 110 targets to Reed this season, and the group will likely see around 150 targets again.
Now we get to the forgotten man former first rounder Josh Doctson. Remember him? He was all the rage before multiple injuries basically turned his rookie season into a redshirt campaign. He only had two catches but one of them was a 57 yard reception, so we do have that!
He did just hurt his hamstring again towards the end of the pre-season which really isn't helping fantasy owners fears that he is turning into the next Kevin White or Breshard Perriman. However, this is a man who in his last season of college put up 1326 yards and 14 yards in the Big 12. The Redskins have every incentive to get him involved, and I believe he will be targeted 80 times.
Finally, we get to Chris Thompson. I'm not going to lie to any of you, he was barely on my radar. Clearly, just a blind spot because he was very productive last year as a pass catching back. I see no reason for that change this coming season and believe he will be targeted about 65 times. Perine and Kelly will factor in too but probably not all that much.
That leaves 75 targets un-accounted for and those will go to the likes of Brian Quick, Samaje Perine, and Rob Kelly. It also means that someone I've already mentioned could see their role grow, but I feel pretty confident about these splits. If anything, maybe Quick seems slightly more work than I'm giving him credit for.
Here are the projections:
Something that may be lost in all this is the team targeted the tight end position an insane 152 times last season. I know it's a fool's errand to try to predict Jordan Reed for a healthy season, but even when he hasn't played 16 games the past two seasons he's been targeted 89 times and 114 times. Even if he remains out it's clear that the team still trusts Vernon Davis to get the job done in his absence. I'm also going to assign 110 targets to Reed this season, and the group will likely see around 150 targets again.
Now we get to the forgotten man former first rounder Josh Doctson. Remember him? He was all the rage before multiple injuries basically turned his rookie season into a redshirt campaign. He only had two catches but one of them was a 57 yard reception, so we do have that!
He did just hurt his hamstring again towards the end of the pre-season which really isn't helping fantasy owners fears that he is turning into the next Kevin White or Breshard Perriman. However, this is a man who in his last season of college put up 1326 yards and 14 yards in the Big 12. The Redskins have every incentive to get him involved, and I believe he will be targeted 80 times.
Finally, we get to Chris Thompson. I'm not going to lie to any of you, he was barely on my radar. Clearly, just a blind spot because he was very productive last year as a pass catching back. I see no reason for that change this coming season and believe he will be targeted about 65 times. Perine and Kelly will factor in too but probably not all that much.
That leaves 75 targets un-accounted for and those will go to the likes of Brian Quick, Samaje Perine, and Rob Kelly. It also means that someone I've already mentioned could see their role grow, but I feel pretty confident about these splits. If anything, maybe Quick seems slightly more work than I'm giving him credit for.
Here are the projections:
Player Name
|
Targets
|
Recs
|
Yardage
|
TDS
|
Terrelle Pryor
|
120
|
72
|
1080
|
6
|
Jamison Crowder
|
110
|
74
|
932
|
6
|
Jordan Reed
|
110
|
83
|
871
|
7
|
Josh Doctson
|
80
|
48
|
600
|
2
|
Chris Thompson
|
65
|
49
|
343
|
2
|
*Note-This is increasing Pryor's catch rate by 5% as well as being generous and increasing his yards per rec to 15 to account for the QB change.
Dynasty Slant
Do I hate Terrelle Pryor? Certainly seems like it right? I don't. I hate his price. I don't think Pryor is being properly valued in dynasty. He's being treated as a 25 year old stud instead of a 28 year old converted QB. According to Dynasty League Football's most recent ADP data, he is currently going 40th off the board. So instead of taking young high upside guys like Tyreek Hill, Devante Parker, or Ty Montgomery people are taking a receiver whose only quality season to date was heavily volume-dependent.
I have a bet with a league mate of mine that he won't reach 1,200 yards this season. As you can see by my projections which I considered pretty generous, I almost considered taking the under on 1000. I fully expect everyone to reference this if he does well this season, that's why I'm putting in writing.
I really wish I could tell you that I think Jamison Crowder is a value, but I can't do that either. I had no idea he was going as high as the 51st player off the board. I like him more than I did at the beginning of this article, but not more than I like Corey Coleman, Kelvin Benjamin, or Emmanuel Sanders. He did just finish as the WR33 in half ppr leagues, but Adam Thielen finished ahead of him and isn't going nearly as high.
Jordan Reed is going as the 54th player off the board, and if he could remain healthy that'd be a great value. The fact that he's likely one concussion away from being done forever makes him very risky. There's honestly a big part of me that wishes he would retire for his own health. I'd much rather take Hunter Henry in that range or one of the rookie tight ends later on.
Josh Doctson is being taken at 60, and I'm starting to sense a theme here. People are much higher on this offense than I am. I know Doctson was considered a high-end talent, but again I'm not sure how you justify taking him over Kelvin Benjamin (and yes I know the internet hates Kelvin Benjamin).
I think I finally found someone to recommend at their price! Chris Thompson is listed at 199! Considering he was a big part of this offense last season and finished as RB38 in half ppr leagues I'd take him over some of the less proven talents he is going after like Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Jalen Richard.
Just because I want to have at least two recommended players to buy in this article, I'd also recommend buying Cousins. He just finished as the QB5 and the year before was the QB8. Yet according to the ADP, he's currently the 10th quaterback off the board. I'd definitely buy in. There is some uncertainty on whether he will stay in Washington, but I'm expecting he will.
Now that I've pooped in the pool that is Terrelle Pryor hype, I expect fantasy twitter to blackball me. Just remember, I like a lot of other players you like! Then again, I'm also on team Kelvin Benjamin....
Thanks if you still talk to me after this.
*This article borrows stats and facts from the following:
www.sports-reference.com, www.pro-football-reference.com, www.playerprofiler.com , spotrac.com, and dynastyleaguefootball.com
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