Part 2: Projecting the Vikings Offense in 2017

Note: This is Part 2 of my Vikings article. To view Part 1 - A review of last year's offense, click here.

I am totally stealing the thunder from Bobby a bit here. He wrote a great piece on Sam Badford (typo intended) back in June. that was something of a precursor to his Breaking Down the Targets series. I’m going to make my own Vikings pass offense projections and if Bobby intends to do it as well, I don’t want this to stop him! First for Sam Bradford I’m projecting 584 passes, or about 36.5 per game. A slight decrease from his Shurmur numbers last year due to the RB additions.

I had already made these projections when the rumors popped up that Adam Thielen would appear more in the slot with Stefon Diggs on the outside. Both spent a decent amount of their snaps in the slot and the wonderful Scott Barrett was quick to point out that Thielen was the more successful of the two inside. To be clear they will both move around some but I think it definitely hurts Thielen's yards per catch a bit while raising his catch%. Here are Thielen's slot numbers last year via twitter. 25-281-2 on 31 targets. Not bad at all. With that in mind, here is how I think the numbers will play out:

Player Name	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Stefon Diggs	123	88	1117	6
Adam Thielen	111	80	970	5
Kyle Rudolph	122	78	850	6
Jerick McKinnon	78	66	482	2
Laquon Treadwell	70	41	521	3

That leaves 80 targets for the best of the rest, of which I would expect Dalvin Cook to probably receive 30-40 of. I had originally pegged Diggs as Golden Tate-esque as a possession receiver but I'm making the change to be a bit more bullish on him. It wouldn't be quite an elite season but a damn good one. In dynasty ADP (via DLF), he was the WR22 in the latest DLF mocks and I think that makes him slightly underrated. I’d prefer him over Jarvis Landry (WR20). In redraft ADP (via FFCalc) he is the PPR WR27 and I think he is an easy buy at that price. I’d take him a full round ahead of where he is currently going in the mid-5th.

Adam Thielen is not quite the high floor guy that Diggs is but I think he is a surprisingly safe play in his own right. Depending on just how much slot vs outside he plays, he has room for more as well. These numbers are actually a little bit worse than what he did in 9 games with Shurmur last year so if they seem surprising, think again! In both dynasty and redraft he is a huge buy for me.

Then we have Kyle Rudolph. Coming off his breakout season he should be back for more. Much like Thielen, these numbers are worse than what his per game stats were with Shurmur, and by quite a bit actually. His elite end of season pace required such a high amount of targets that it can’t continue. That said, once again he is a great fantasy value.

After the big three, if Jerick McKinnon can hit those numbers he will be a great PPR play. Dalvin Cook is the big thing that stands in his way but with how well McKinnon performed as a receiver at the end of 2016, I am confident he keeps this role. If he can get ~400 rush yards - which may be a stretch with Latavius also in the mix - he is a quality depth RB. Lastly with Treadwell I think dynasty owners looking for ANY sign of life. If he can get 500 yards with a not horrible catch % it will be just enough to say “Alright, maybe he’s still got a chance”. It’s very similar to the situation Breshad Perriman was in last year and now this year. If Treadwell is both healthy and under 50 targets in 2017, I’d say there is basically 0 chance of him becoming an impact player.

I'll go ahead and look at the Vikings run game as well. They were very consistent in their per game rush attempts with Pat Shurmur at the head of the offense with right around 21 to 21.5 per game. That should go up a bit. I'll put them at 380 carries which is 23.75 per game and still in the bottom ten overall. Despite Mike Zimmer's general hesitation to play rookies, there is just no way Dalvin Cook isn't far and away the leading rusher for this team.

Player	Rush Att	Yards	YPC	Rush TD
Dalvin Cook	230	1012	4.4	6
Latavius Murray	70	273	3.9	4
Jerick McKinnon	50	230	4.6	1

By and large, that should be considered a solid rookie campaign for Cook, especially with 150-200 rec yards on top of it. Worthy of his high dynasty price - an ADP of 37th overall? I'm a bit skeptical. I think I prefer some more proven talent in DeMarco, TyMo and Crowell first. The backup roles are where it gets interesting. I forecast Latavius for a very underwhelming backup role, albeit with some goal line vulture scores. Even at his very cheap dynasty ADP of RB61, he's a handcuff to Dalvin Cook. If I don't own Cook, I don't want him. I think McKinnon makes an excellent spell RB and this is backed up by his 5.2 YPC on 52 carries with 0 starts in 2015. Overall I have him projected for 66 recs, 712 YFS and 3 total TD. It's a bit short of the fantasy relevance I'd like to see, but really not that far off. A single injury could put him in good position. He remains a great bottom of roster player to own. As touched on in Part 1, he is literally dirt cheap in dynasty. His DLF ADP is 233rd overall, RB81. Considering the mocks only go to 240 picks he is truly a last round flier. I'd comfortably take him at least a few rounds earlier in the ~200 range.

A LOT went wrong for the Vikings offense last year. They managed to come out the other side of 2016 with a lot of reasons to be optimistic. The depleted offensive line was revamped with signings of Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers, plus the drafting of Pat Elflein 70th overall. They made significant additions to the run game. Notably, the Vikings seemed to have been as happy with the pass game as I was. They didn’t make any significant to changes to the heart of the pass attack. They did draft two WRs and a TE but none until the 5th round. With three relevant receivers plus a 4th on the fringe in RB Jerick McKinnon and a potentially every week fantasy starter in Dalvin Cook, things are looking great. Considering all that happened last year, I am excited for the potential of everything to go right in 2017.

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As always, stats pulled from www.pro-football-reference.com. ADP Data from www.dynastyleaguefootball.com and www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com.